Speculation: Roster Building Thread LIV: Free Agency Hasn't Even Started

[Kakko]

Last: Speculation: - Roster Building Thread LIII: Free Agent Frenzy

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[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

All logical signs point to AP coming here. Of course he has to meet with more teams than just us, that’s what is going to drive his leverage in negotiation. I truly believe he wants to be a ranger. Only thing that would not allow this to happen is if the rangers are just so low that he can’t justify the difference. I can’t see that happening.

 

[pld459666]

@DutchShamrock

I hope to god we do have similar problems as Toronto

That means we have too many elite players.

That's not a bad thing.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

This is the problem I see from the Panarin crowd. So dismissive of potential issues. Kakko is one, maybe Kravtsov is the other. Toronto doesn't have a defender at Trouba's pay range.

You are throwing around Tavares so loosely you don't even see the scariness of the comparison. Toronto gave him that deal because they assumed Marner, Matthews and Nylander would be company men and sign for $1-2m less, each. And here we are doing the same thing. Assuming all these guys will sign for less.

Again, center wasn't the need for Toronto but they dropped a crazy amount that forced a really good top 6 center out, and maybe Kadri is gone a year later. We aren't hurting at wing.

During the course of a 7 year deal, Kakko and Kravtsov will exit ELC. Chytil and Andersson, hopefully our Kapanen and Johnson duo, will need new deals. Zibanejed will need a new deal. Fox will need a deal. The two Russians netminders.

And yeah, a bunch of contracts will come off the books. Replaced by new players coming in. I hope to God we don't have a Tavares situation.

This X10000.

Missing out on Panarin would just mean a gained opportunity later (when we have a better grasp on what we have) rather than a lost one now. The UFA market may suck, but players, and high quality players, always shake loose for a variety of reasons - We took advantage of this exact situation last week.

 

[TheBPA]

It’s interesting to me that so many are worried about how panarin would fit long term here because of the contracts we might have to give to kakko, kravtsov etc. in 3 years.

Florida, the supposed front runner,will need to give a 26 year old barkov and a 28 year old trocheck new deals in 3 years, and a 29 year old huberdeau a new deal in 4. Barkov is going to get the moon and the others won’t be far behind. On top of that, they might be paying a goalie $10 million per.

We have almost $30 million coming off the cap in 3 years as compared to this offseason.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

All logical signs point to AP coming here. Of course he has to meet with more teams than just us, that’s what is going to drive his leverage in negotiation. I truly believe he wants to be a ranger. Only thing that would not allow this to happen is if the rangers are just so low that he can’t justify the difference. I can’t see that happening.

Yeah, except for all the logical signs that point to him not coming here...

 

[TheBloodyNine]

It’s interesting to me that so many are worried about how panarin would fit long term here because of the contracts we might have to give to kakko, kravtsov etc. in 3 years.

Florida, the supposed front runner,will need to give a 26 year old barkov and a 28 year old trocheck new deals in 3 years, and a 29 year old huberdeau a new deal in 4. Barkov is going to get the moon and the others won’t be far behind. On top of that, they might be paying a goalie $10 million per.

We have almost $30 million coming off the cap in 3 years as compared to this offseason.

Good, I hope Florida f***s up their cap and we don't. I really don't care about their cap at all.

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

Yeah, except for all the logical signs that point to him not coming here...

I guess we’ll find out soon who’s logical signs were more logical

 

[Off Sides]

It’s funny to me that so many are worried about how panarin would fit long term here because of the contracts we might have to give to kakko, kravtsov etc. in 3 years.

Florida, the supposed front runner,will need to give a 26 year old barkov and a 28 year old trocheck new deals in 3 years, and a 29 year old huberdeau a new deal in 4. Barkov is going to get the moon and the others won’t be far behind. On top of that, they might be paying a goalie $10 million per.

We have almost $30 million coming off the cap in 3 years as compared to this offseason.

I'd think for Florida, given those higher end players are in their prime, they would be going for it within the years between now and when they had to make cap choices/extensions.

 

[duhmetreE]

Panarin is in a tier with Kucherov, Kane, Gaudreau, MacKinnon, Crosby, Matthews, Giroux etc when it comes to ES production.

 

[SA16]

If Kakko and Kravstov are going to require 10M off their ELC then signing Panarin now is not an issue as that means the team is likely a cup contender for the next 3 years.

 

[duhmetreE]

Toronto signed Tavares going into year 3 of Matthews/Marners ELCs. Not equal to what a Panarin+Kakko+Kravtsov would be.
There will be a new CBA by then.
There will be a team in Seattle
There will be a new TV deal
There are so many unknowns, to be paralyzed by it, is playing not to lose.

 

[Rongomania]

If Kakko and Kravstov are going to require 10M off their ELC then signing Panarin now is not an issue as that means the team is likely a cup contender for the next 3 years.

I am curious as to how much the cap rises after Seattle comes in for a year.

Like @NYR Viper said, if we can lock up the breadman at 9.5x7 that's something I could be on board with. Shouldn't interfere with our kids if a few of 'em hit, right?

11.5 x 7 is much harder for me to swallow.

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

If Kakko and Kravstov are going to require 10M off their ELC then signing Panarin now is not an issue as that means the team is likely a cup contender for the next 3 years.

A lot of very aggressive assumptions in this post lol. I hope you’re right.

 

[SA16]

A lot of very aggressive assumptions in this post lol. I hope you’re right.

I'm not assuming they will be worth 10M in 3 years. Other people have said that. I'm saying if they are worth that and we have Panarin that means over the next 3 years we have Panarin Kravtsov and Kakko all playing at elite first line level plus Zibanejad as a 1C amongst the rest.

 

[ecemleafs]

When we signed gaborik, gaborik's caphit was 13% of the cap. 13% of the 81.5m cap is about 10.75m. Panarin and gaborik were both 27 when they hit UFA. Gaborik was a more prolific goal scorer but was also injury prone when we signed him.

 

[Doctyl]

Cap Hell also doesn’t seem too bad anymore. Tampa and Toronto have been openly flaunting that they’ll get out of it and it never matters.

 

[Off Sides]

If Kakko and Kravstov are going to require 10M off their ELC then signing Panarin now is not an issue as that means the team is likely a cup contender for the next 3 years.

Or they have one or more of, goalie, defender, depth issues and end up not advancing in the playoffs.

 

[pld459666]

folks are so paranoid of signing UFA's because a few have not turned out well.

don't be scuurred

 

[duhmetreE]

Cap Hell also doesn’t seem too bad anymore. Tampa and Toronto have been openly flaunting that they’ll get out of it and it never matters.

Also, 'Cap hell' is usually an issue 'late-term' CBA, where we are now.

These things will be addressed IMO. What's the point of have RFAs if they're getting paid like UFAs? Restrict RFA years to a certain cap hit%? Maybe copy/imitate something the NFL does, have a 'Franchise-player' that doesn't count towards cap?

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

folks are so paranoid of signing UFA's because a few have not turned out well.

don't be scuurred

AP is on a whole different level than any of the recent UFA disasters.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Cap Hell also doesn’t seem too bad anymore. Tampa and Toronto have been openly flaunting that they’ll get out of it and it never matters.

Lots of championships recently for these two franchises as well...

 

[TheBloodyNine]

AP is on a whole different level than any of the recent UFA disasters.

"[Player Name] is different this time!"

Certainly a statement I've never heard before.

 

[Priorae]

I just don't get why they'd do it this year. The timing doesn't work. We're not going to be a Cup contender with or without him and in the next two years massive amounts come off the books when we are. Why not wait and take advantage of teams that are impatient?

 

[GAGLine]

I am curious as to how much the cap rises after Seattle comes in for a year.

Like @NYR Viper said, if we can lock up the breadman at 9.5x7 that's something I could be on board with. Shouldn't interfere with our kids if a few of 'em hit, right?

11.5 x 7 is much harder for me to swallow.

The cap won't raise based on Seattle. The money that they pay to the league goes in the owners' pockets. It is not part of HRR.

The cap is expected to remain at or close to its current level for another 2 to 3 years to mitigate the need for escrow. The next big bump in the salary cap should come after the new TV deals are signed. Those deals will be done after the 2020-21 season. The money for those deals might be factored into the 2021-22 season, but possibly not until the 2022-23 season.

I could see us offering Panarin 9.5 x 7, but he could take the same deal in Florida and get more money due to the tax thing. Brooks reported that our offer could be 11 to 11.25 x 7. I would be surprised if we offered him that much. I think Gorton has a number in mind that he won't go over, and that number is under 11 mil. We'll see, I guess.