Ronnie's Roulette - Year two TDL Edition

[RainyCityHockey]

Given the talk in the game thread(against New Jersey) and the fact that we're about seven weeks away from the Trading Deadline I thout it would make sense to create another threat.

Last year the Kraken were really bad and a clear cut seller for everyone to see.
They ended up making a good amount of trades to increase their draft capital and also wound up with not just two draft picks(4th + 6th round) but also Daniel Sprong by trading Marcus Johansson.

This year the Kraken are, as we speak, in a playoff spot and one of the surprises of the season so far.
So unless they completely fall off a cliff they'll be in and around the playoff positions come TDL and Francis will have to make a decision.

Does he want to stay pat?
Does he want to go for it?
Does he want to be creative and sell?

Overall the smartest move seems to be to try and play "with house money" by staying pat or only doing something small given that this group has achieved those results.

Still you could also make a shrewed move by trading someone like Soucy for maybe a younger guy, with some term or control left on his ocntract.

Personally, I don't expect much to happen but would love to hear from others what they think might go down and of course discuss anything Francis actually does or doesn't do during the next couple of weeks.

BTW: Here's what GM's are saying about the deadline.

Blockbusters ahead? What GMs are saying about the NHL trade deadline

Could stars like Erik Karlsson or Patrick Kane be on the move? What hurdles are there for big trades? We checked with GMs to get a lay of the land.

www.espn.co.uk

Click to read more...

 

[Irie]

You left out the poll option representing the overwhelming majority of posts on HockeysFuture Forums...

"Give up spare parts for huge upgrades!"

 

[The Marquis]

I think it could be both 2 and 3.

 

[majormajor]

I could see this as a moment to make a big long term upgrade, that will elevate the team for this playoff run and beyond. That's what I'd be trying to do, anyways.

But most likely I see Ronny trading like a 4th round pick for an upgrade at #7D. That's probably it.

There won't be any selling.

 

[rsteen]

IMO the team's championship window aligns with Matty's career. He should be getting even better over the next few years. So I don't want Francis to go and trade 3 firsts for a 32-year-old Karlsson or pay big $$ to late-20s UFAs yet. (That didn't work out so well with Gru). A player who might extend for 4x4M or 4x5M should be ok cap wise, or a cheap deal like a 4C who can PK and win dzone faceoffs would be good.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I could see this as a moment to make a big long term upgrade, that will elevate the team for this playoff run and beyond. That's what I'd be trying to do, anyways.

But most likely I see Ronny trading like a 4th round pick for an upgrade at #7D. That's probably it.

There won't be any selling.

I agree with all of this.

A big long-term upgrade (at D) would be very useful but unlikely to happen at the TDL. I don't see us being in on Karlsson because he does not fit the identity of this team (single expensive player driving offense), let alone the fact I cannot see Francis give up more than 2 1sts for a 32 year old D-man making 11.5M AAV for another 4 seasons after this. If anything, I can see us being in on Chychrun if the price is right (rumored to be cheaper than Karlsson).

I expect us to get D depth like you pointed out at the TDL if anything.

The only way I see selling happening is if we get anyone but a depth D-man. That would be to create cap space and we don't have many likely players to move outside Donskoi, Driedger and Soucy. The first two will need us to add to move them and I doubt Francis does that.

 

[Scomerica]

I'm guessing a lot of this will depend on how you view this years teams ceiling. Personally, right now i'm just happy to hopefully make the play offs given last season and maybe win a series (this may change if/when we make the play offs depending on how we are doing by then). Others may think a deep play off run and the most optimistic a cup run.

 

[majormajor]

I'm guessing a lot of this will depend on how you view this years teams ceiling. Personally, right now i'm just happy to hopefully make the play offs given last season and maybe win a series (this may change if/when we make the play offs depending on how we are doing by then). Others may think a deep play off run and the most optimistic a cup run.

Look around the conference and tell me you don't think this team can compete.

The one team that I really wouldn't want to face in the playoffs is the Oilers, especially if they load up. The rest I think I'd bet on the Kraken. That's about the best playoff odds as you'll ever get. You can try and play the super long game to build a better contender and you probably won't get a better chance than right now.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

Look around the conference and tell me you don't think this team can compete.

The one team that I really wouldn't want to face in the playoffs is the Oilers, especially if they load up. The rest I think I'd bet on the Kraken. That's about as good a playoff odds as you'll ever get. You can try and play the super long game to build a better contender and you probably won't get a better chance than right now.

Um.....there's a team in the mountains that might get 1 - 3 players back until then(hint, we'll play them tomorrow) and they just showed last year how far they can go.

The Oilers might be great offensively(and maybe too much for us given our tendencies to give up high quality chances) but if you're able to somewhat keep them in check you've got a great chance to beat them cause they can't defend, at all.

The window/contender thing is where we have diffferent opinions so let's agree to disagree on this one.

 

[majormajor]

Um.....there's a team in the mountains that might get 1 - 3 players back until then(hint, we'll play them tomorrow) and they just showed last year how far they can go.

The Oilers might be great offensively(and maybe too much for us given our tendencies to give up high quality chances) but if you're able to somewhat keep them in check you've got a great chance to beat them cause they can't defend, at all.

The window/contender thing is where we have diffferent opinions so let's agree to disagree on this one.

The Avs look like they'll need more than a few players back to compete with the Kraken. They have 2-3 lines each game that can't do anything.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

The Avs look like they'll need more than a few players back to compete with the Kraken. They have 2-3 lines each game that can't do anything.

Even without Landeskog that Avs team has weapons we can only dream of and knows how to play in the playoffs.

I'm also pretty sure they'll find a way to add a real 2C at the TDL and will look even better.

 

[Sad People]

Were terrible at faceoffs, i personally am not getting my hopes up if/ when we make the playoffs. Dont get me wrong id be stoked to be in the playoffs but i have a hard time seeing us win a series. Ive watched the Wild struggle with faceoffs for far too long.

 

[majormajor]

Were terrible at faceoffs, i personally am not getting my hopes up if/ when we make the playoffs. Dont get me wrong id be stoked to be in the playoffs but i have a hard time seeing us win a series. Ive watched the Wild struggle with faceoffs for far too long.

The Avs were bad at faceoffs last year and are right with the Kraken this year at the bottom of the league in faceoffs. As long as you're in that 45-55% band it's not that important, just one of many things that determines possession.

 

[Scomerica]

Look around the conference and tell me you don't think this team can compete.

The one team that I really wouldn't want to face in the playoffs is the Oilers, especially if they load up. The rest I think I'd bet on the Kraken. That's about the best playoff odds as you'll ever get. You can try and play the super long game to build a better contender and you probably won't get a better chance than right now.

I'd like to see us improve our home form. Tomorrow would be a good start. If we best the best at home and not just away I'll feel a good bit more confident about a play off series.

 

[Sad People]

The Avs were bad at faceoffs last year and are right with the Kraken this year at the bottom of the league in faceoffs. As long as you're in that 45-55% band it's not that important, just one of many things that determines possession.

Im not going to try and compare us to the Avs of last year and say well if the Avs did it, why not us, that team was just different. Ive seen this story too many times and have watched too many series of the Wild getting owned at the dot and having it greatly affect the games. I'll be honest though i didnt realize they were that bad at them last year, thought they were one of the best.

 

[kihei]

I think it could be both 2 and 3.

I voted 3 but I agree with this. Francis has done a good job with acquisitions this past year. I wouldn't want to constrain him too much.

 

[kihei]

Were terrible at faceoffs, i personally am not getting my hopes up if/ when we make the playoffs. Dont get me wrong id be stoked to be in the playoffs but i have a hard time seeing us win a series. Ive watched the Wild struggle with faceoffs for far too long.

This year I just want to get to the playoffs. I'm not terribly concerned about winning a round. I think the experience will be invaluable, though.

 

[Sad People]

This year I just want to get to the playoffs. I'm not terribly concerned about winning a round. I think the experience will be invaluable, though.

No i completely agree and im not trying to sound pessimistic about it either. Id be stoked to get the playoffs as a 2nd year team, i was just speaking for myself when i said i wont expect that much if/when we make the playoffs. But thats me being a lifelong Vikings and Wild fan rubbing off and being disappointed constantly in the playoffs.

 

[The Marquis]

No i completely agree and im not trying to sound pessimistic about it either. Id be stoked to get the playoffs as a 2nd year team, i was just speaking for myself when i said i wont expect that much if/when we make the playoffs. But thats me being a lifelong Vikings and Wild fan rubbing off and being disappointed constantly in the playoffs.

Same boat for me as well. When the season started the expectation was to compete for a playoff spot. I’ll be happy if they accomplish that. I want more, but I won’t be upset if it doesn’t go well.

 

[Sad People]

Same boat for me as well. When the season started the expectation was to compete for a playoff spot. I’ll be happy if they accomplish that. I want more, but I won’t be upset if it doesn’t go well.

Yup. Part of me hopes we arent peaking too early because in a parallel universe where we were playing like crap where we would be sellers, wed have a lot of juicy trade pieces that we could get a good amount for i would think.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Same boat for me as well. When the season started the expectation was to compete for a playoff spot. I’ll be happy if they accomplish that. I want more, but I won’t be upset if it doesn’t go well.

Yeah. Competing for the playoff spot was my hope. We are already doing that. I wouldn't even be mad (would be surprised) if we missed them.

 

[GrungeHockey]

There isn't actually a lot to sell so that decision is easy. Soucy will be a UFA but we don't have the defensive depth to replace him and Donato isn't going to get you enough to justify moving him when he's a decent lower end fit here. I'd love to ship out Donskoi but that's not going to happen either so we're not sellers.

Buyers? I don't think we are good enough to justify selling off the future. So I personally wouldn't do anything. There's good team chemistry right now and things are going fairly well, so why mess with it? Team has already over achieved for this year, just keep it going and keep building for the future.

and sign Jones to an extension.

 

[sigma six]

It's hard to qualify this, but I don't think the team is in the right place yet to make big trades for a playoff run. I feel like it backfires too often, so let's see what we've got over a larger sample size. I agree with the option #2 /3 crowd.

If the Kraken do some damage in the post season I'd be good with the right FA acquisition during the summer, though.

 

[Irie]

I have been pretty critical of the team and it's post season chances as not a real contender, and while I still don't think this team is a top tier team this season, so much has changed in the past four weeks that I now have a different view.

For a year and a half I have watched this team work and compete extremely hard, but play without any sort of discipline in both the offensive and defensive zones. Nuetral zone has more or less been consistent and solid, but they were all effort and no smarts in the other areas.... up until recently.

I read that in mid December Lowry had taken full control of the penalty kill. They are approaching everything differently defensively now.

The entire team used to charge head down at the puck, pressuring it at every point as it moved around the ice, creating a massive swirl of puck chasing.

Now, if a player knows they can't beat an opponent to the puck, they pull up and drop back into their defensive position, maintaining spacing and discipline.

The results are a team that is skating smarter, and not harder. They are still maintaining their strong work ethic, but they don't look as tired, and working as a team they are a whole lot tougher to play against.

The PK% is still low, but it has come up 7 or 8 points in 4 weeks. That is substantial. In the 12 games of 2023, it is running at 85%.

I am more inclined to view the efficiency since the changes as a likely indicator of how good or bad it is, ignoring the numbers when they were using what ever the hell the previous system that the coaching staff used all of last season was.

This team is possibly the deepest team in the league, and they have a lot of solid players, if not the top end talent of other teams. I feel they can make some noise in the playoffs if they can continue to play disciplined the way they have then past few weeks.

I don't, however, feel that they would get enough boost to their chances with any big ticket rental players, so spending big at the TDL is not in the organizations best interest.

Adding a physical depth forward that Francis feels might be willing to re-sign may be a realistic target though, and is a move that might give them more of an element that they will likely need and be short of in the postseason.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

There isn't actually a lot to sell so that decision is easy. Soucy will be a UFA but we don't have the defensive depth to replace him and Donato isn't going to get you enough to justify moving him when he's a decent lower end fit here. I'd love to ship out Donskoi but that's not going to happen either so we're not sellers.

Buyers? I don't think we are good enough to justify selling off the future. So I personally wouldn't do anything. There's good team chemistry right now and things are going fairly well, so why mess with it? Team has already over achieved for this year, just keep it going and keep building for the future.

and sign Jones to an extension.

I agree but I'm not so sure about Jones.

No one's taking Grubauer and his contract and unless Driedger start playing(do we keep 3 goalies after the TDL?) we won't be able to trade him as well.

Also, as much as I like Jones and wouldn't mind keeping him around(at a similar cap hit) I'm not sure he'll have the same results next year given that the team's shooting at an insane percentage(about 11%) and might not give him four goals a night as support.

It's hard to qualify this, but I don't think the team is in the right place yet to make big trades for a playoff run. I feel like it backfires too often, so let's see what we've got over a larger sample size. I agree with the option #2 /3 crowd.

If the Kraken do some damage in the post season I'd be good with the right FA acquisition during the summer, though.

I think the current squad is the one that got us to this point and I think they deserve to try and make it to the postseason and experience that.

Though, John Forslund seems to think that if they'll do something it's going to be more of a substantial move.
I disagree and hope that's just the announcer speaking, not knowing too much of what might happen.
Though, if they really do I hope it's more of a Chychrun type of guy instead of a Horvath, given the age and contract difference(Chychrun has two more years at aroun $4.5M) between the both of them.




@Irie

I agree, I don't think it would be the best option to go for it and basically try to do a quick fix/speed up things while giving up a big portion of the potential future.

Also, I do think a more physical forward would be good.
Just having watched the Avs who have a lot of skill but are also big an physical up front. Their forwards were able to keep up physically with our defense while ours are easily pushed to the side.