RLR: Couturier not quite living up to our expectations

[SympathyForTheDevils]

Thank you - now we're talking. In essence, your point is that Couturier was ahead due to having been the only prospect to put up a dominant performance in his league, and that this initially overrode projection based more around evaluating skillsets? That actually makes some good sense.

Exactly. The draft year is the great equalizer. It didn't matter that Tavares/Hall had dominated the rankings for their draft class for months or even years; as soon as Duchene/Seguin showed they were on a similar level, they became legit contenders for the number one pick. Now, we're seeing guys like RNH, Landeskog and Strome play closer to their NHL potential, and obviously many scouts think their ceiling is higher than Couturier's.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see Couturier drop a few spots at the draft, but I think a few of the teams that'll pass on him will regret it.

 

[Crede777]

...he is going to be an unstoppable load going to the net.

Just wanted to quote this in case others missed it. Too bad he wasn't talking about Duncan Siemens.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

Larsson + Couturier for Avs!

Yeah that would be sweet, to bad Oilers will take Larsson first

 

[Draft Guru]

RLR always does this once or twice a year to create some buzz and get people talking about them. More publicity = potentially more subscriptions. It was like that one month late in the '01 season that they had Chistov at #1 ahead of Kovalchuk. Never is going to happen, but it gets people in the community talking.

 

[DuklaNation]

No, this is I believe the 19th draft I'm following. Which is why I'm not satisfied with glib and unconvincing generalisations, and try to elicit whatever anyone may have to offer in the way of more plausible explanations as to why this particular player seems to be sliding quickly down the rankings. Deal with it.

Sure I've heard the phrase "perception is reality". It's generally used by two kinds of people - those who don't understand the difference between the two, and those who don't care. I've no time for either of them, and even less for a cliche that basically amounts to an intellectual shrug.

Your comment proves you dont understand that phrase at all. Suggestion for you: ask a futures trader what it really means and it may turn the light on.

 

[Mancini0518]

I hope he falls to the Bruins at 7-10. Seguin, Couturier and Knight for Kessel would be more than anyone could have asked for

 

[Passchendaele]

How can Saad be ranked top ten?

He's not even a PPG player.

 

[RandallRitchey]

Larsson + Couturier for Avs!

Please tell me how you get both? Because if the Blues pick top ten, you'll get next year's pick.

 

[speeds]

Couturier's RLR ranks this season, month by month have been:
Sep-1
Oct-1
Nov-1
Dec-1
Jan-3
Feb-4
Mar-8

Here are his stats this year, split at the new year when he started to drop:


Sept2010-Dec2010:
32GP, 16G, 36A for 52pts, +22 (1.63 PointsPerGame)

Jan2011-present:
25GP, 20G, 23A for 43pts, +32 (1.72 PointsPerGame)

 

[speeds]

I wonder if he's unfairly penalized for being "quiet" excellent instead of "flashy/dynamic" excellent.

Is there a legitimate concern that Couturier is getting underrated because his game is a bit more plain,but extremely effective, while others might look flashy, having more interesting tools, but don't get the results SC does? Or, is that lack of a dynamic dimension a legitimate concern for Couturier, in that he won't be able to excel at the next level without that dynamic nature to his game?

 

[Daryl]

It's probably due to various factors such as his skating,otherwise he's a big guy with soft hands,a bit similar to Dustin Penner I'd say.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Scouts (Not NHL scouts) would have seen all 3 play long before their CHL debute/SEL Debute. Information travels fast. SC played in the CHL before Nugent-Hopkins, but NHL scouts wouldn't have followed him seriously that year because he was 3 years from being draft eligible. NHL scouts are not going to take that year seriously in regards to his NHL potential. The most important year in someones draft status (unless they are injured for it) is their draft year. NHL teams will assess their draft year performances and abilities. It's ludicrious to think that a few more viewings of SC at 15 will impact on what scouts think now. I know you aren't an idiot MR, but shake your head.





Tavares never fell in the rankings. Tavares did have a somewhat odd draft year (but his WJ was sick) but he never really fell in the rankings despite some concerns. This as of now, cannot be said about SC. Sure their weaknesses may be artificially magnified abit, but they aren't really going to get in the way of where they peg a player incomparison to another player.

All the top ranked players have been known for some time. All have been playing in well known leagues for 2+ years. All will have been seen alot. The most important year is this year ; where teams will concentrate on them ALOT more. Whatever these potential concerns are about SC and whether they are right or not, they don't exist because we about him at 15. They aren't being exaggerated because we knew him at 15. He isn't potentially falling in the rankings because we knew about him at 15.

Well, I think you're fundamentally wrong on all your points, but frankly I'm sick of talking about it. We'll see what happens on draft day. I'll let you have the last word. Couturier won't fall even close to as far as #8 though, I'll say that much.

 

[boredmale]

Well, I think you're fundamentally wrong on all your points, but frankly I'm sick of talking about it. We'll see what happens on draft day. I'll let you have the last word. Couturier won't fall even close to as far as #8 though, I'll say that much.

I can't see Couturier making it past Florida myself(most likely 4th/5th with the possibility of 6th if somebody passes them in the draft lottery)

 

[Dread Clawz]

How can Saad be ranked top ten?

He's not even a PPG player.

Well, according to RedLine, Gudbranson wasn't a top ten prospect for last year's draft either. They can do some magical things with their rankings though.

 

[Dread Clawz]

I can't see Couturier making it past Florida myself(most likely 4th/5th with the possibility of 6th if somebody passes them in the draft lottery)

I really can't either, one of Florida or Isles will take him. No way he makes it past 5.

 

[boredmale]

I really can't either, one of Florida or Isles will take him. No way he makes it past 5.

I have no clue how the Islanders will draft, but he makes alot of sense for the Islanders because

1. He is NHL ready and I think the Islanders have a 3-4 year chance to make a run for the cup before they have contract issues, other lower rated guys might have better careers when all is said and done but it would take longer for them to hit there stride in the NHL

2. Good insurance for 2nd line center if Bailey doesn't pan out

3. If Bailey makes a good 2nd line center they can convert Couturier to a wing

 

[Zach and Slater]

I am one of Khoklachev's biggest supporters. I think I had him top 15-20 in my last mock, but to see him at 9th is kind of shocking.

I love how dynamic he is, but I don't see him going anywhere near top 10. Top 25 or so sounds about right to me.

As for Couturier, this is almost one of those articles that wreaks like it's trying to create buzz and get people talking. Couturier will not slide all the way to 8th. There is 0 percent chance of that happening.

I know people say, "yeah, well look at Fowler and Gormley last year, blah blah. I don't care." The guy is already a competent two way player that could step in and likely play a third line NHL role RIGHT NOW on many NHL teams. He's too safe of a pick to pass on for 7 teams.

Just to add to that, the reason those 2 slid had much more to do with a growing belief around the league that you don't draft d-men high. A) it takes d-men longer to develop so why not sign them as UFA's? B) forwards are more of a safer bet to pick high then d-men. Last time I CHECKED, Couturier isn't a d-man. It's just Redline doing there annual "hey look at us!!!" BS that they do every March. Two years ago they put Tavares at 3, last year they trashed Fowler's game. As it turned out Tavares at 3 wasn't a stretch and Fowler didn't go til pick 13, but it's clearly more a cry for attention then it is actual belief. Couturier at 5? Maybe, but like you say he won't fall to 8th.

 

[SP]

3. If Bailey makes a good 2nd line center they can convert Couturier to a wing

Or have three good centers. It's working for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

 

[boredmale]

Or have three good centers. It's working for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

In the perfect world Frans Nielsen is the 3rd line center(who now currently is our second line center). Not saying he will ever amount to anything in the NHL but Casey Cizikas might overtake that role(defensive 3rd line center who can score a little) down the line(when the Islanders have to start choosing which contracts to keep and get rid of)

 

[Qvist]

Your comment proves you dont understand that phrase at all. Suggestion for you: ask a futures trader what it really means and it may turn the light on.

No, my comment proves that I understand that we're not futures traders. Nor are the guys who make rankings of draft prospects. We are all of us, in fact, in exactly the sort of circumstances in which "reality is perception" is not applicable, other than in the senses I mentioned. Reality is legitimately equal to perception only to people who in point of fact deal in perceptions. Ranking prospects with a view to drafting them is the exact opposite of that - good drafting depends fundamentally on the ability to identify reality and ignore perception wherever the two are at odds. Discussion can often pretty much be defined as an attempt to establish whether a particular perception matches reality. You're one to talk about lights on, sunshine. If you want to be sarcastic, get your act together first and think things through further than the tip of your nose.

 

[Qvist]

Exactly. The draft year is the great equalizer. It didn't matter that Tavares/Hall had dominated the rankings for their draft class for months or even years; as soon as Duchene/Seguin showed they were on a similar level, they became legit contenders for the number one pick. Now, we're seeing guys like RNH, Landeskog and Strome play closer to their NHL potential, and obviously many scouts think their ceiling is higher than Couturier's.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see Couturier drop a few spots at the draft, but I think a few of the teams that'll pass on him will regret it.

That'd also account for the effect of his WJC, which hugely affected his standing despite being not really bad, or very disappointing. If the big question scouts were already asking themselves was "does he really have the skill set to be a dominant player the way the other top guys do?", he would really have needed to show some offensive dominance at the tournament to dispel doubts. And he didn't - instead I guess he rather confirmed suspicions that he's solid, but not really at a level where he'll dominate with his skills and offensively. Which then seems to be sufficient to drop him under the other big 3.

If this is the case, my gut feeling is he'll continue to drop in the rankings, but still get picked higher than the rankings suggest.

 

[Porn*]

I would be quite ecstatic to land a player like couturier in the top 10... he's an incredible talent. all the issues pertaining to his skating will be adjusted with time and development... he's still a kid who's grown too fast to handle.

 

[AwesomePanthers]

Still suffering from the "bad WJC" ********. He did his role, shutting down other teams toplines. That was the role he was intended, and he did it well. Some people just seem to care about his stats in that tournament, remember he made the team as 17 year old. Not many does that (only Hall last season).

 

[arsmaster*]

Still suffering from the "bad WJC" ********. He did his role, shutting down other teams toplines. That was the role he was intended, and he did it well. Some people just seem to care about his stats in that tournament, remember he made the team as 17 year old. Not many does that (only Hall last season).

Im on your side of the argument, but he was 18....turned 18 in December.

He is #3 on my list behind Larsson and RNH...for as much potential as Huberdeau and Strome have, they both play on deep hockey teams, and arent 6'4" with that skill set - puck protection, shot, playmaking, awareness, SIZE.

It would be nice to see what Sean could do on the WJC team next year, but I have a sneaking suspicion he will be in the NHL.

 

[shadow1]

If my team (Avs) don't end up with Larsson, I hope they nab this guy. Big, strong, two way forward with pretty good potential. If he ends up as good as Jordan Staal, it's a win. If he ends up as good as Vinny, it's robbery.