Proposal: Rickard Rakell To Ottawa

eternalbedhead

Let's not rebuild and say we did
Aug 10, 2015
1,912
684
Corona, CA
And I am sure you ignored several things on the other side of the spectrum as well. If everyone considered every angle when discussing a point like this, we'd all be experts..
You're not adding anything to the discussion with pointless speculation. If you see any fallacy in my posts, then feel free to point it out, but if not, unbased conjecture adds nothing to the discussion.
 

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
30,856
9,793
Montreal, Canada
Touche, but you're ignoring several things here, most prominently the fact that Getzlaf, along with pretty much the entire team, were nothing less than snakebitten at the start of the year which obviously impacted their point totals. Silfverberg was affected by this as well; his 1st half of the season was lackluster on the offensive side, but he still managed to hit a near-40 point pace due to an extended hot streak he went on to end the year.

Career arc, which we unfortunately don't have the luxury of with Silf and Ryan considering that Silfverberg is still relatively new to the NHL and Ryan is still relatively new to Ottawa, (and hasn't validated any insinuations that he could continue to chug out 30 goal seasons without playing with Getzlaf and Perry) also must be taken into account; Getzlaf is an established franchise centerman, Couturier is still up-and-coming but is at the very least a very solid 2nd liner.

I was not the one making the initial argument ;)

I just copied/paste your argument and applied it to other players.

Listen, I understand what you are saying, I have been following the NHL closely for 25 years, and what I can tell you is that players have ROLES on a team. Ryan and Getzlaf have offensive roles while Silfverberg and Couturier have defensive/shutdown roles, which is why their deployments are like that

Like I said earlier, I already said everything I had to say right here, nothing else to see. Sens are very happy with Ryan (even though fans and everybody concerned, even Ryan himself) would like to have even more. Good for you if you are also happy with Silfverberg, it is a win-win then

You're also ignoring the fact that Getzlaf, though he's not a defensive specialist like Couturier, is not a defensive liability himself, and was the guy who took on a lot of the harder matchups before we acquired Kesler. He spends and has spent considerable time on our PK. His defensive game isn't his strong suit, but it's still good.

I am not ignoring anything. Am I supposed to repeat everything you say to show that I agree? :sarcasm:

That being said, Ryan is no slouch defensively, and he has been evolving into a more complete player since coming to Ottawa (wasn't just a goal scorer in his first 3 seasons). When he is healthy and on his game, he is actually quite the impact player all over the ice. The way he ended his last few seasons (injuries, slumps, lack of endurance) is what left a bad taste in people's mouth but canadian hockey fans are never satisfied, believe me.

Also, the gulf between Getzlaf and Couturier in defensive and offensive zone starts is not quite as large as between Silfverberg and Ryan. Getzlaf gets (a lot) more defensive zone starts than Ryan and Silfverberg gets more than Couturier

You're really starting to reach man... It's ok, do you want me to say "you win the argument"? Because other people that are reading and have at least half a brain are seeing what I am seeing :naughty:

Now, since Ryan has been in Ottawa, he's been producing on a 57 point pace, correct? Those are hardly 1st line numbers, and especially when he's not great in his own end, I fail to see how you can call him a 1st liner. Now, Silfverberg, this past season, hit 39 points. 20 goals. Maybe not 10 years ago, but that's just about the going rate for lower-end offensive 2nd liners. Once again, he makes up for any offensive shortcoming with his defensive play. I think it's fair to say he's a 2nd liner.

Hmmm, I think you need to download the "keep updated with how the NHL evolves" application.

How many 1st liners there should be in the NHL you think? 30 teams x 3 = 90?

Ryan finished 65th in scoring among forwards in 2014-15 with 54 pts
Ryan finished 53rd in scoring among forwards in 2015-16 with 56 pts

If you want me to say that Silfverberg with 39 pts has been producing like a lower offensive 2nd line player, no problem. Here you go... so now can we end this? lol

Silfverberg finished 128th in scoring among forwards in 2014-15 with 39 pts
Silfverberg finished 137th in scoring among forwards in 2015-16 with 39 pts
 
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eternalbedhead

Let's not rebuild and say we did
Aug 10, 2015
1,912
684
Corona, CA
I was not the one making the initial argument ;)

I just copied/paste your argument and applied it to other players.

Listen, I understand what you are saying, I have been following the NHL closely for 25 years, and what I can tell you is that players have ROLES on a team. Ryan and Getzlaf have offensive roles while Silfverberg and Couturier have defensive/shutdown roles, which is why their deployments are like that


Which is why I'm saying not to discount Silfverberg just because he doesn't have the gaudiest counting stats. He produces pretty well for someone who doesn't see offensive deployment. It was less of discounting Ryan than trying to prove that Silfverberg is in fact a legitimate 2nd liner.

Like I said earlier, I already said everything I had to say right here, nothing else to see. Sens are very happy with Ryan (even though fans and everybody concerned, even Ryan himself) would like to have even more. Good for you if you are also happy with Silfverberg, it is a win-win then

The original thing I said was that this trade didn't break worlds like everyone expected it to; it was a blockbuster at the time but doesn't seem like it in retrospect. Ottawa didn't get any franchise forwards, and outside of Silfverberg, whether we get anything of note is highly dependent on whether Ritchie can prove that he can overcome what was an awful NHL debut last year. Once again, I'm not discrediting Ryan, he's a good player, but he's not the 30 goal man he was hyped up to be. That was all I was saying: this trade isn't as big as it was in retrospect. Let's get hypothetical and unrealistic here for the point of making an example and say that Toronto trades Auston Matthews to Florida for Aaron Ekblad. This is a huge trade, right? Now, let's say that Ekblad regresses a bit and hangs around as a good 2nd pairing defender, and Matthews doesn't score more than 50 points in his career. Is it still a huge trade?

I am not ignoring anything. Am I supposed to repeat everything you say to show that I agree? :sarcasm:

That being said, Ryan is no slouch defensively, and he has been evolving into a more complete player since coming to Ottawa (wasn't just a goal scorer in his first 3 seasons). When he is healthy and on his game, he is actually quite the impact player all over the ice. The way he ended his last few seasons (injuries, slumps, lack of endurance) is what left a bad taste in people's mouth but canadian hockey fans are never satisfied, believe me.

You're really starting to reach man... It's ok, do you want me to say "you win the argument"? Because other people that are reading and have at least half a brain are seeing what I am seeing :naughty:

What do you mean by that? I merely said that the gulf between the two original examples in def. vs. off. zone starts was larger than the difference between Getzlaf and Couturier.

Hmmm, I think you need to download the "keep updated with how the NHL evolves" application.

How many 1st liners there should be in the NHL you think? 30 teams x 3 = 90?

Ryan finished 65th in scoring among forwards in 2014-15 with 54 pts
Ryan finished 53rd in scoring among forwards in 2015-16 with 56 pts



Let's look at the players who were in Ryan's vicinity last year. Jussi Jokinen, Derick Brassard. James Neal. Tyler Toffoli. Kyle Palmieri. Tomas Plekanec. Brandon Saad. Cam Atkinson. Vincent Trocheck. Derek Stepan. Ryan Kesler. Frans Nielsen. The list goes on. All these players with around 50-60 points, and none of these players are bonafide 1st liners, though, by their stats (being in the top 90), they would appear to be. Several of these players are better defensively than Ryan and yet still are not considered 1st liners by the majority of the NHL fanbase.

If you want me to say that Silfverberg with 39 pts has been producing like a lower offensive 2nd line player, no problem. Here you go... so now can we end this? lol

Silfverberg finished 128th in scoring among forwards in 2014-15 with 39 pts
Silfverberg finished 137th in scoring among forwards in 2015-16 with 39 pts


If you want to end the argument, that's fine, but as long as you reply, I'll keep replying as well :naughty:



Comments in bold.
 

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
30,856
9,793
Montreal, Canada
Comments in bold.

Replies to bolded comments, in order :

- I never tried to discount Silfverberg. I should have worded 3rd liner differently so the debate maybe would have never occured. IMO, Silf is an elite 3rd liner or a defensive 2nd line forward. Nothing wrong with that at all. I'm just saying that both he and Ryan are different players, but Ottawa needed at that time someone like Ryan.

- Agreed that this trade isn't as big as it was in retrospect. Both teams traded 1 good player each, with Ryan being a bigger offensive impact player so Ottawa gave up 2 future assets who aren't looking like they will pan out much. Which is why I don't understand why you said "especially with how the Ryan trade worked out..." in the first place. Maybe you should take that one back... because I certainly don't think that the trade turned out that bad for Ottawa...

- Nevermind, I just found you were reaching. Even if the deployments were a bit different, my point was made. It's ok if you don't understand this one, we can move on.

- I could do the same thing as you just did, and compare Silfverberg with players in his "vicinity" last year and say that " none of these players are bonafide 2nd liners"... I could make the exact same argument as you just did. Do you really want to take that route again? :laugh:

- I would but time is money you know ;) So I am ready to move on. Hopefully, everything is clear this time. Cheers
 

Ducks DVM

sowcufucakky
Jun 6, 2010
52,140
29,348
Long Beach, CA
How many 1st liners there should be in the NHL you think? 30 teams x 3 = 90?

Ryan finished 65th in scoring among forwards in 2014-15 with 54 pts
Ryan finished 53rd in scoring among forwards in 2015-16 with 56 pts

If you want me to say that Silfverberg with 39 pts has been producing like a lower offensive 2nd line player, no problem. Here you go... so now can we end this? lol

Silfverberg finished 128th in scoring among forwards in 2014-15 with 39 pts
Silfverberg finished 137th in scoring among forwards in 2015-16 with 39 pts

Staying out of the rest of this, and ignoring the wings vs centers argument as far as just coming up with the blanket "90 players per line", your numbers say that Silfverberg is actually a mid-level 2nd line forward, not a low level one, assuming that the median for 2nd line forwards would be at the 135 mark. Ryan could be described as a mid-lower tier 1st line player.

Based on goal scoring, they were both low end 1st line players last year.
 

eternalbedhead

Let's not rebuild and say we did
Aug 10, 2015
1,912
684
Corona, CA
Replies to bolded comments, in order :

- I never tried to discount Silfverberg. I should have worded 3rd liner differently so the debate maybe would have never occured. IMO, Silf is an elite 3rd liner or a defensive 2nd line forward. Nothing wrong with that at all. I'm just saying that both he and Ryan are different players, but Ottawa needed at that time someone like Ryan.


Fair enough.

- Agreed that this trade isn't as big as it was in retrospect. Both teams traded 1 good player each, with Ryan being a bigger offensive impact player so Ottawa gave up 2 future assets who aren't looking like they will pan out much. Which is why I don't understand why you said "especially with how the Ryan trade worked out..." in the first place. Maybe you should take that one back... because I certainly don't think that the trade turned out that bad for Ottawa...


That's what I meant when I made that quote. I didn't word it very clearly, but considering the scope of the trade when it happened compared to what it looks like today, then yes, what I said was valid. Also, you shouldn't be calling me out for starting a discussion over Silfverberg when you started your own over my choice of words.

- Nevermind, I just found you were reaching. Even if the deployments were a bit different, my point was made. It's ok if you don't understand this one, we can move on.


No, what I'm saying is being 15th in offensive zone starts is a helluva lot different than being almost 100th. Getzlaf gets significantly more defensive zone starts than Ryan does, and Silfverberg gets more starts in his own end than Couturier as well. Look it up if you must, I'm not saying anything but fact here, so if you believe I'm reaching then I honestly don't know what to say. If we use the "90 1st liners" argument that you like using, then Getzlaf doesn't actually get 1st line deployment, since he's outside of that top 90. Ryan, however, does, and by a rather large margin.

- I could do the same thing as you just did, and compare Silfverberg with players in his "vicinity" last year and say that " none of these players are bonafide 2nd liners"... I could make the exact same argument as you just did. Do you really want to take that route again? :laugh:


Yes, sure, name some. And I will then counter back with the fact that points aren't everything. Notice how I didn't bring up names like Toews and Duchene that were also hanging around Ryan's point production range. In Silfverberg's point production range, favorable comparables are Elias Lindholm, Wennberg, Ehlers, Rakell, Johnson, Fabbri, Foligno, etc. And they're all scattered in between more inferior players. Heck, some of the players in the list are arguably better than some of the players in the 1st list I showed you. (players around Ryan's range that weren't bona-fide 1st liners) Silfverberg already fits in a top 6 using your "90 1st liners" argument, so his good defensive game certainly doesn't bring him down any.

- I would but time is money you know ;) So I am ready to move on. Hopefully, everything is clear this time. Cheers

Comments in bold.
 

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
30,856
9,793
Montreal, Canada
Staying out of the rest of this, and ignoring the wings vs centers argument as far as just coming up with the blanket "90 players per line", your numbers say that Silfverberg is actually a mid-level 2nd line forward, not a low level one, assuming that the median for 2nd line forwards would be at the 135 mark. Ryan could be described as a mid-lower tier 1st line player.

Based on goal scoring, they were both low end 1st line players last year.

Ok thanks for sharing...wow the forwards scoring rangers are going lower every year, 40 pts is now the average production of a 2nd liner :amazed:

Comments in bold.

So it seems all of this was a bit of a misunderstanding... But thanks for keeping it civilized and respectful. We just argued and tried to understand where the other's opinion is coming from, that's it

- I did not "call you out", sorry if you took it like that. I have "started a discussion over your choice of words" because I didn't find what you said fair or truthful (from what I understood), you did the exact same thing when I called Silfverberg a 3rd liner and that's ok to me. I acknowledge now that Silfverberg is more than a 3rd liner, and hopefully you also understand that the Sens have no reason to regret the trade just yet.

- I understand there is a difference but it's reaching at this point. I could go on and say that a 16 pts difference is less than 18 pts, etc. The point is still made that discrepancies like that will almost always happen when you compare offensive players and defensive players. I'll give you just one example, but without even going into O-starts and D-starts :

Chris Kelly finished 87th in ESP (Even Strength Pts) for forwards in 2011-12, tied with guys like Oshie, Fisher and Henrique and had 1 more ESP than Corey Perry, Derek Stepan and Shane Doan, but also 3 more than Ryan Getzlaf. I could go on but I think you understand where I am going with that. Would you say that Kelly was better offensively than all those guys despite getting more Defensive starts? (without looking, I'd say that he had more than all of them). Chris has always been a defensive specialist.

- I think with my last example I am also saying like you that "points aren't everything" but it is still something. But anyway, I will let you believe what you want to believe because like most people, you are entitled to your opinion and it is very hard to change :) Personally, facts determine my opinion, but it's ok, we have all our way of seeing things. In conclusion : if you want to believe that Silfverberg is a 1st liner or an extremely good 2nd liner, no problem. That would mean that his game really evolved since Ottawa because he was a 3rd liner here.
 
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eternalbedhead

Let's not rebuild and say we did
Aug 10, 2015
1,912
684
Corona, CA
So it seems all of this was a bit of a misunderstanding... But thanks for keeping it civilized and respectful. We just argued and tried to understand where the other's opinion is coming from, that's it

- I did not "call you out", sorry if you took it like that. I have "started a discussion over your choice of words" because I didn't find what you said fair or truthful (from what I understood), you did the exact same thing when I called Silfverberg a 3rd liner and that's ok to me. I acknowledge now that Silfverberg is more than a 3rd liner, and hopefully you also understand that the Sens have no reason to regret the trade just yet.

- I understand there is a difference but it's reaching at this point. I could go on and say that a 16 pts difference is less than 18 pts, etc. The point is still made that discrepancies like that will almost always happen when you compare offensive players and defensive players. I'll give you just one example, but without even going into O-starts and D-starts :

Chris Kelly finished 87th in ESP (Even Strength Pts) for forwards in 2011-12, tied with guys like Oshie, Fisher and Henrique and had 1 more ESP than Corey Perry, Derek Stepan and Shane Doan, but also 3 more than Ryan Getzlaf. I could go on but I think you understand where I am going with that. Would you say that Kelly was better offensively than all those guys despite getting more Defensive starts? (without looking, I'd say that he had more than all of them). Chris has always been a defensive specialist.

- I think with my last example I am also saying like you that "points aren't everything" but it is still something. But anyway, I will let you believe what you want to believe because like most people, you are entitled to your opinion and it is very hard to change :) Personally, facts determine my opinion, but it's ok, we have all our way of seeing things. In conclusion : if you want to believe that Silfverberg is a 1st liner or an extremely good 2nd liner, no problem. That would mean that his game really evolved since Ottawa because he was a 3rd liner here.
- I didn't mean "call you out" as a bad thing, I just meant that you pointed something out and I was comparing it to me pointing something out in your posts. Also, I never said the Sens should regret the trade, just that it's not as big in retrospect. I agree with you that Ryan is still a more impactful forward and unless Ritchie becomes a 20 goal scorer (which certainly is feasible but is far from a sure thing) I think the Sens should be more or less happy with the trade.

- 16 point difference versus an 18 point difference only spans 2 points, and a player with two points more than one another is only enough to separate them by a maximum of 5 spots depending on where they sit on the leaderboard, meanwhile Getzlaf is 82 spots behind Ryan in offensive zone starts. Also, for your Chris Kelly example, fair enough, but I might mention that Getzlaf, along with pretty much the rest of the team had an off year, as well as the fact that pretty much all of Chris Kelly's points came at even strength (he got no PP ice time), and also the fact that that was a career year pretty much for Kelly; you don't usually see players hit 20 goals for the first time while on the wrong side of 30. His points/60 was only 9th on his team (min 500 minutes) and he shot at a ridiculous 15.5% rate. For stats to have any coherent meaning, there needs to be context.

- Points obviously mean something, but like all stats they crumble when they're the only thing used to evaluate players. Like all stats, they can produce some weird anomalies. Looking at context greatly decreases how many of these there are, but they still exist. Lastly, I never said Silfverberg was a 1st liner. He is not a 1st liner. He's an average 2nd liner offensively and he's not anywhere close to being elite enough defensively to bump him up to a legitimate 1st liner. All I said was that he has a very good defensive game and his offensive game is still comparable to an average 2nd liner in today's dead puck era.
 

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