Salary Cap: RFA Marner - Silence until solution to the matter one way or the other

[PromisedLand]

FML

looks like the guy who did not want to miss training camp and burn a year of his professional career being a disaster

 

[Cor]

We should close any Marner thread until a resolution happens

 

[MattySnipes]

We should close any Marner thread until a resolution happens

Silence on all platforms.

 

[Alerion]

Okay, fair. Made a factual mistake. Either way there is still Ehlers and Pasternak.

Ehlers opted to sign early and signed after 38 and 64 point season, whereas Nylander signed after back to back 61 point seasons, given that the Leafs burnt the first year of ELC at the end of 15/16 (which was smart). Pastrnak and Nylander had extremely similar stats on their ELCs, except once again Pastrnak only had a good platform year whereas Nylander was more consistent over the course of his ELC.

Note the average PPG of those deals and their average 2018/2019 cap hit, you'll notice Nylander comes in slightly below average. It should have been done earlier, but it wasn't an overpay and Dubas didn't capitulate.

Anyway, back to Marner.

 

[Kiwi]

I wonder if Marner would take 11 million if it was 6 years? (Which is a MASSIVE overpay but lets just get this done at this point). Like that is only a minor step down from the Matthews contract. If he doesn't accept that then this is just a circus and frankly they should just end the negotiations until he comes back down to earth.

The fact were even asking if he would accept 11M×6 is completely insane and if that was offered to him I want the front office fired on the spot for rank incompetence

Make two offers, 11M×8 (which is a massive overpay) or 8.25M×3 (also an overpay) and let it be known if those deals are unacceptable to him he can go to Switzerland or find an offersheet but those deals aren't changing in any way from here on in

This is nuts, I just want it resolved one way or another by the time the season starts, if not this situation becomes exponentially worse

 

[PromisedLand]

Menzinger/kb

Not sure how us on LTIR means other teams will have space. So for each day Marner misses, his cap hit for this real inflates. Doesn’t that mean his contract would be huge and no team would be able to fit him in

thats the funny thing. CBA doesn't make it clear (or at least I haven't seen it); if other team offers an in season OS for them the cap hit may be not inflated because it is a brand new contract or something

 

[93LEAFS]

Ehlers opted to sign early and signed after 38 and 64 point season, whereas Nylander signed after back to back 61 point seasons, given that the Leafs burnt the first year of ELC at the end of 15/16 (which was smart). Pastrnak and Nylander had extremely similar stats on their ELCs, except once again Pastrnak only had a good platform year whereas Nylander was more consistent over the course of his ELC.

Note the average PPG of those deals and their average 2018/2019 cap hit, you'll notice Nylander comes in slightly below average. It should have been done earlier, but it wasn't an overpay and Dubas didn't capitulate.

Anyway, back to Marner.

Every one of those players sold more UFA years. Ehlers sold 3 more and got 1m less.

 

[Ifittex il Verita]

Well looks like the Flyers got Provorov on a fair deal.

How bout us??

 

[jaric1862]

Well looks like the Flyers got Provorov on a fair deal.

How bout us??

Unfortunately all our RFA's are/were forwards. Also luck of the draw that we got the forward with the biggest ego

 

[Alerion]

Every one of those players sold more UFA years. Ehlers sold 3 more and got 1m less.

Ehlers is coincidentally the best deal on that list by a wide margin, it's no surprise you're fixated on him. My point stands, Nylander is in line with his comparables.

 

[Ifittex il Verita]

Unfortunately all our RFA's are/were forwards. Also luck of the draw that we got the forward with the biggest ego

Nah, I don't think so.
We just have a management team severely deficient in experience that can't negotiate to save their lives.
I'm just gonna keep watching other teams continue to get their RFA's at fair deals and watch us severely overpay for ours. And ofc watch the regular crew jump out and defend management and keep claiming our players are just that good and we're loaded with generational talents despite no success to back it up.

 

[Ifittex il Verita]

Ehlers is coincidentally the best deal on that list by a wide margin, it's no surprise you're fixated on him. My point stands, Nylander is in line with his comparables.

IMO Nylander's deal teeters right on the point of overpayment and fair deal. Everyone behind him has better deals and they're all similar players. That really is the best Dubas can do. Oh and none of them needed a record long holdout to get it either.

 

[Hockey Crazy]

Imagine tomorrow there is a press conference and they announce 8 x 9 and they say that they just wanted to see how much chaos they could cause over the summer...

 

[jaric1862]

Nah, I don't think so.
We just have a management team severely deficient in experience that can't negotiate to save their lives.
I'm just gonna keep watching other teams continue to get their RFA's at fair deals and watch us severely overpay for ours. And ofc watch the regular crew jump out and defend management and keep claiming our players are just that good and we're loaded with generational talents despite no success to back it up.

Regardless of the competence of management , the ball was in Marner's court to sign a fair (and maybe even slightly overpayment) contract at 11x7, and he didn't take it. There is only so much that they can do when it comes to dealing with a player who grossly overestimates his value.

 

[93LEAFS]

Ehlers is coincidentally the best deal on that list by a wide margin, it's no surprise you're fixated on him. My point stands, Nylander is in line with his comparables.

Everyone on that list gave up more UFA years. Which are the most valuable ones to be buying. That seems to get forgotten every time. I pointed to Ehlers because you talked about his situation.

 

[hamzarocks]

The fact were even asking if he would accept 11M×6 is completely insane and if that was offered to him I want the front office fired on the spot for rank incompetence

Make two offers, 11M×8 (which is a massive overpay) or 8.25M×3 (also an overpay) and let it be known if those deals are unacceptable to him he can go to Switzerland or find an offersheet but those deals aren't changing in any way from here on in

This is nuts, I just want it resolved one way or another by the time the season starts, if not this situation becomes exponentially worse

Gonna have to disagree with you on 11x8 being a massive overpayment.

We cant look at contract negotiations now simply by assessing a players performance to date and use past comparables as a contract base.

Marners deal will need to be compared directly with Other young stars and internal Star Matthews. I can except that Matthews is the better and more valuable player moving forward. As a goal scoring center his value imexceed a dynamic winger in marner. If we were offering marner a a 5 year deal how much lower than Matthews would it be. I think 1.5-2.0 mill is the max range in difference the contracts should be. On a 5 year deal 9.5 is a fair deal for marner based on the internal comparison.

If we want 8 years. That is a extra 3 more years. How much should the AAV go up per year is tough to guess but I think between 333k to 500k is a good guess. That brings his contract on a 8 year deal upto 10.5-11 million. Choosing the lower end of that range we find that a 11 million deal based on the internal comparison would only be a 500k overpayment for Marner . That is about the same amount that Nylander is currently overpaid.

11x8 is not a massive overpayment. A slight overpayment for now and becomes a good deal/steal in 3/4 years time. 11/7 or 11/8 are deals Marner should not be rejecting right now. It is insane money, term, and the opportunity to come back and collect another 100 million dollars from age 39 forward.

Marner has to be receiving some poor financial counseling because he is throwing away 88 mill(116 mill cad). This is guaranteed money. Unlike NFL he does not need to worry about anything. He plays and he gets that cash. In 3 years the RFA market could switch, he could fall out of favour with the coach, get injured, etc.

I get trying to earn money rapidly but guaranteed money for a extended time period is better than slightly less money for a considerable time frame.

88 million will always be better than 60 million (over 5 years). If ferris was looking out for the best for Marner and his career moving forward he would not foolishly throw away 28-35 million dollars away in league where we constantly see players suffer major injuries and have there careers derailed. If 16 wont take a discount than 11x8 should be the final offer that works long term from both sides.

 

[namttebih]

So, I've missed the entire conversation (went to Kazakhstan for a while).... is Mitch gonna give us the little man/home town discount we expected when we drafted him??

This post has everything

 

[Kiwi]

Gonna have to disagree with you on 11x8 being a massive overpayment.

We cant look at contract negotiations now simply by assessing a players performance to date and use past comparables as a contract base.

Marners deal will need to be compared directly with Other young stars and internal Star Matthews. I can except that Matthews is the better and more valuable player moving forward. As a goal scoring center his value imexceed a dynamic winger in marner. If we were offering marner a a 5 year deal how much lower than Matthews would it be. I think 1.5-2.0 mill is the max range in difference the contracts should be. On a 5 year deal 9.5 is a fair deal for marner based on the internal comparison.

If we want 8 years. That is a extra 3 more years. How much should the AAV go up per year is tough to guess but I think between 333k to 500k is a good guess. That brings his contract on a 8 year deal upto 10.5-11 million. Choosing the lower end of that range we find that a 11 million deal based on the internal comparison would only be a 500k overpayment for Marner . That is about the same amount that Nylander is currently overpaid.

11x8 is not a massive overpayment. A slight overpayment for now and becomes a good deal/steal in 3/4 years time. 11/7 or 11/8 are deals Marner should not be rejecting right now. It is insane money, term, and the opportunity to come back and collect another 100 million dollars from age 39 forward.

Marner has to be receiving some poor financial counseling because he is throwing away 88 mill(116 mill cad). This is guaranteed money. Unlike NFL he does not need to worry about anything. He plays and he gets that cash. In 3 years the RFA market could switch, he could fall out of favour with the coach, get injured, etc.

I get trying to earn money rapidly but guaranteed money for a extended time period is better than slightly less money for a considerable time frame.

88 million will always be better than 60 million (over 5 years). If ferris was looking out for the best for Marner and his career moving forward he would not foolishly throw away 28-35 million dollars away in league where we constantly see players suffer major injuries and have there careers derailed. If 16 wont take a discount than 11x8 should be the final offer that works long term from both sides.

11M×8 is 88M US dollars

I rate Marner as one of the best young wingers in the game and that deal is without comparable for a RFA winger straight out of his ECL in league history, that's an incredibly generous deal for a guy that's also going to get huge bonuses, lockout protection with a full NTC as soon as possible during the lifetime of the deal

He's not Matthews, Matthews is an elite 5v5 goalscoring center who played with Kapanen and johnsson last season and still scored goals at incredible rates so I'm not going to treat them the same

If that deal isn't good enough I don't know how were supposed to deal with this guy, there's even rumours we can't even name a captain until he signs ffs, that's off the reservation nuts

If it isn't good enough sign a bridge or go and drum up that offersheet we all heard was coming but you can only do so much to make a guy happy before its not your problem and he needs to look in the mirror and decide whats most important to him

 

[capfit9]

I think part of this is that I feel everyone is overlooking is Mark Hunter and I'll leave it at that

 

[dangomon]

I think part of this is that I feel everyone is overlooking is Mark Hunter and I'll leave it at that

All these gripes with the organization, why not just leave?

 

[Martin Skoula]

I think part of this is that I feel everyone is overlooking is Mark Hunter and I'll leave it at that

Mark Hunter raving about how great Marner's family is is grounds enough for dismissal as a prospect evaluator.

Imagine begging your GM to take a guy because you think Paul Marner is a great guy.

 

[Burnie97]

I think part of this is that I feel everyone is overlooking is Mark Hunter and I'll leave it at that

But hes in the OHL ... not the NHL.... I'm not overlooking that... someone might be... not me....

Mark Hunter raving about how great Marner's family is is grounds enough for dismissal as a prospect evaluator.

Imagine begging your GM to take a guy because you think Paul Marner is a great guy.

Said no one ever... in the last 48 hours

 

[Nineteen67]

I think part of this is that I feel everyone is overlooking is Mark Hunter and I'll leave it at that

This is a business. If that has any bearing on his decision then it’s another reason to trade him.

 

[MattySnipes]

I think part of this is that I feel everyone is overlooking is Mark Hunter and I'll leave it at that

What do you mean? Are you saying Marner family might be upset Mark Hunter left the organization the way he did, and now they're taking it out on the team?

 

[Menzinger]

Every one of those players sold more UFA years. Ehlers sold 3 more and got 1m less.

Nylander had better numbers heading into negotiations. And again, that's not even touching on things like gaps in ice time and pp usage