Revised Expectations

[pursuit81]

A simple question: Has the Isles early season success, or any other factor, changed your expectations from where they were at the start of the season about how they will finish?

Going into the season I thought that the Isles would be an 80 to 85 pt. team and as much as I am enjoying the ride right now, I still think that talent, or lack thereof, ultimately finds it's level. So my prediction has not really changed much, though I may have underestimated the Trotz effect and a more consistent Brock Nelson might push me to believe that 85- 90 pts is possible. I still think Barzy is going to have a bit of a sophomore slump - nothing dramatic - and that Greiss and Lehner cannot continue to put up the kinds of numbers we're seeing now (though they will still have better than expected seasons).

Curious about how others see it and why?

Click to read more...

 

[Kevin27NYI]

I wa optimistic, think I have my footprints all over.

Thought the bottom six was awful, liked Lou bringing in everyone he did.

I proposed a Q that got a good response and asked what people’s expectstikns were with a new staff and outlook, phrasing it in ways I thought was realistic.

Like could you conceivably believe our PK could be ten percent higher? New coaching staff and recruits. Got yes’s

Could Pulock and Leddy get 30/40 points. Got yes’s

Barzal 80 points. Yes’s

PP ran through Bailey and Barzal with Lee in front and Gomez still on, could success stay? Yes.

Could Greiss get a .907 save percentage which is much higher than his statistically worst season last year and got yes.

It doesn’t take much. Those alone can bring in into the playoffs.

I used the Devils last year and Blues in Hitchcock’s first year as precedents.

They have structure.

Also said, Tavares May leave but the Isles are a better “team”. Holding true so far.

 

[pursuit81]

I wa optimistic, think I have my footprints all over.

Thought the bottom six was awful, liked Lou bringing in everyone he did.

I proposed a Q that got a good response and asked what people’s expectstikns were with a new staff and outlook, phrasing it in ways I thought was realistic.

Like could you conceivably believe our PK could be ten percent higher? New coaching staff and recruits. Got yes’s

Could Pulock and Leddy get 30/40 points. Got yes’s

Barzal 80 points. Yes’s

PP ran through Bailey and Barzal with Lee in front and Gomez still on, could success stay? Yes.

Could Greiss get a .907 save percentage which is much higher than his statistically worst season last year and got yes.

It doesn’t take much. Those alone can bring in into the playoffs.

I used the Devils last year and Blues in Hitchcock’s first year as precedents.

They have structure.

Also said, Tavares May leave but the Isles are a better “team”. Holding true so far.

All fair points. Biggest one may be the "team" aspect. Which is not a knock on JT (I am not among those who think he is the antichrist) but more a compliment to BT.

 

[Lame Lambert]

I have no idea. If they remain consistent through December then I think they’re legit.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

All fair points. Biggest one may be the "team" aspect. Which is not a knock on JT (I am not among those who think he is the antichrist) but more a compliment to BT.

And not giving an inch in the D zone. Not perfect, no team is but guys are tied up everywhere down low.

I wanted Roussel last year as a guy who could bring our team into the fight. Thought his personality and ruggedness would help. Glad we got Uncle Leo!!

 

[pursuit81]

And not giving an inch in the D zone. Not perfect, no team is but guys are tied up everywhere down low.

I wanted Roussel last year as a guy who could bring our team into the fight. Thought his personality and ruggedness would help. Glad we got Uncle Leo!!

Yes, Uncle Leo is proving to be what LL brought him here for. Don't really know Roussel's game but sounds like the Lou type. Obviously the roster moves Lou makes in the coming months will be a function of how we are doing but despite our early success, no one should get too comfy.

 

[PK Cronin]

I typically view the first ten games as a settling in period, so I don't like to read too much into anything until after that point. Now teams are in their systems, guys are getting into a rhythm, and we'll see how well the team handles that. So far, so good.

At worst, this team ends in the same spot it did last year I think (unless they sell everything not bolted down at the deadline). At best, we're a bubble playoff team. This team isn't talented enough to be in first place by the time the season comes to a close. We're winning some tight games, but they are mostly games where we're scoring first. How does this team handle going down a couple early on? Do we have the horses to mount a comeback? So far the answer is no. We can't reasonably expect to be scoring first in all the games.

 

[Lek]

at this pace - 107 points...figure a 15% drop off???...91 points.
if they can keep up, and improve on the defensive structure night in and night out as the season goes on, there is no reason 91+ points is not attainable.
...big if...

 

[IslesNorway]

Too early to tell anything but at least they seem to have an idea of how to play.

 

[danteipp]

They are playing like I expected, solid defensively and (hopefully) getting better with more experience each game. I was just hoping to see some strides in a coherent system, some physical play (not just hits but digging out pucks, back checking, etc.) and grind out some wins.

The bottom six was upgraded and the defense seems to be at least proficient. I have been VERY surprised by Nelson's play. That is a terrific bonus so far. I like what I have seen from Mayfield as well.

I think the keys will be how fast the young players continue to adjust and improve, injury luck of course, and if an improvement or two can come internally. What I mean by that is maybe a Toews grabs a spot down the line, adding some team speed, or one of the young forwards forces a callup.

I think we can see anything from 80-95 points. Even if they are at the lower end, but tough to play against, they will be in the lottery and that isn't terrible. Add another key building block. If they are a playoff team, maybe they earn back more respect around the league and can improve quickly with a free agent or two.

But they appear to be on the right track. Although they will need to figure out the Lee, Eberle and Nelson situations at some point.

 

[pursuit81]

at this pace - 107 points...figure a 15% drop off???...91 points.
if they can keep up, and improve on the defensive structure night in and night out as the season goes on, there is no reason 91+ points is not attainable.
...big if...

It is a big if, and is it even desirable? 91 pts is out of the playoffs and drafting 14-15 unless we get really lucky. I don't think we can count on the Wahlstrom/Dobson serendipity happening again either. I just hate the thought of us fighting our balls off to end up middle of the pack, out of the playoffs and having hurt our ability to bring in good young talent.

 

[majormet]

I felt the coaching was the reason why we never went anywhere and was very optimistic when the season started, where I was very pessimistic going into 17/18, I think we hang around and then add 2 pieces at the deadline and we will do a deep playoff run... I felt that way the day Trotz was hired.

 

[13th Floor]

I maintain ceiling is a wild card team. I think the floor is higher than I thought. We could stay this good, but a lot will have to go our way. I expect some bad bounces, injuries, etc. I'd be absolutely thrilled with a playoff spot, but I'd still put my money against it.

 

[DonLou13]

It was always about the system and the type of players that play in it. Trotz and Don Lou have created a system that involves character and accountability.

This team always had plenty of skill, and now are playing with a huge chip on their shoulder to prove everybody wrong. And it's so much fun to watch. I'm predicting 95 points which should be enough to make the playoffs. After that, who knows what will happen.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

It's November 2nd.

When the inevitable 3-4 game losing streak occurs, there will be "trade everyone we are sellers!" threads popping up...

 

[MIK55]

Was there for Pittsburgh and NJ wins. Let me say first what a pleasure it is to walk out of the building and see disappointed opposition fans. Not enough of that last year.

What I have noticed is that there is a structure to the way the team operates in its own zone that was missing last year. The breakouts are vastly improved and there is no panic. I think the system has helped improve the goaltending but one has to believe, particularly with Greisser, that it has been Mitch Korn.

Here's the thing. This team will stay in every game and will not be blown out. That does not mean playoffs by any means, but it does mean competitive hockey, night after night.

I think they may be developing into one of those teams that no one wants to play. I feel encouraged but will withhold a definitive view for until we are a quarter of the way through.

 

[YearlyLottery]

It's November 2nd.

When the inevitable 3-4 game losing streak occurs, there will be "trade everyone we are sellers!" threads popping up...

Are we not allowed to talk about the team in November though? There is an immense change in how they are structured this early on compared to prior years.

 

[aronjudge11]

Lou has some work to do. It would be easy to dump LEE Leddy Brock and Eberle for 4 1st round and a 2nd rounder for the next draft....easy if they were no good. Give him a chance to do a quick makeover like the Yankees did. Although he's have to use the picks in trades for some 20 to 23 year olds. Now? He's got to get at least two of these guys signed or make a playoff bound team worse by trading them. fate would have the isles playing Toronto this year in the playoffs.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

Are we not allowed to talk about the team in November though? There is an immense change in how they are structured this early on compared to prior years.

No you are not. Unless you ask me for permission.

 

[Islanders4Cups]

I am a long time Islander fan since the 70s and I am always optimistic to start a season. I am not saying contending every year, I look for progress over a period of time. Call me glass half full when it comes to my sports teams. If I wasn’t I would have given up a long time ago.

You can imagine my optimism coming into the season having replaced the front office with a quality GM and a Stanley Cup winning quality coach.

I wasn’t expecting them to be at the top of the conference and I don’t expect that to last. They are about where I expect them to be though as a team.
Coming in, I expected this team to be hard to play against, with less scoring, better D and goaltending and a better penalty kill.

 

[Tres Peleches]

I’ve never been a fan of fancy stats, especially in sports where there’s constantly multiple moving parts.

I do acknowledge that they are valuable when used in the proper context.

However, I’m getting sick of them being shoved down our throats by people who say the Islanders will crash and burn. Just makes me smile even wider with every game they win

 

[ThreeLeftSkates]

While we have better coaching(huge difference). we lost several players who moved the needle in the right direction. Our defensemen as a unit are meh, and we are slow.
We are not going to finish on the bottom, barring injuries.
LL has to improve this roster without a #1 overall pick, and hopefully we can really contend in a couple of years.

 

[notDatsyuk]

It's November 2nd.

When the inevitable 3-4 game losing streak occurs, there will be "trade everyone we are sellers!" threads popping up...

We already went through a stretch of losing four of five - not good enough for you?

Some people just aren't happy unless they're miserable.

 

[doublechili]

I've posted a few times that if they're around .500 after 15 games we can think about the playoffs. I think tonight is game 15.

The reason is that there are several new players and a new coaching staff and new system, and a tough, road-heavy early schedule. So yeah, some people think it's unsustainable luck, but I assume they will improve as time goes by and can hang around for a wildcard spot (or maybe better).

 

[steveat]

I look at the state of the league this year and very glad we squared things away when we did. Heard a few podcasts saying that more than a few teams are going to fire their coaches and they'll all compete for Quenville. Imagine if we waited until later to find a new coach...we'd end up with another AHL Cappy.