Reilly Smith

[Man Rocket]

He will get a lot of intrest and that should also show us that he's a player we could use.

But much of it depends does he want security and peace for his family or is he after the max money?

If you give him 4.2-4.5 this offseason would he say know knowing that he don't have to move his family? He's made tens of millions and will make millions with that.

eh, i just don't see it. He has no reason to take a hometown deal, the team is kind of in flux. he really hasn't made that much, he took a sweetheart deal with Dallas that paid him the 4.2m per after he was putting up 60-70 point seasons.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Smith deserves the same patience as all the other stiffs on this team last year . Move him to improve sure , but he's hardly the POS many are making him out to be . 3.4 mil for 50 pts or do is the going rate . Get him away from Claude and he's even better ,

False, I'd say.

It has been well noted that the Julien system does inhibit individual stats -- for the good players. Players like Marchand, Bergeron. Seguin. Krejci. Eriksson. Etc.

The same system is the reason we ended up with these overpaid contracts like Kelly and now Smith -- the system makes the weaker passengers look stronger, and the stronger offensive players look weaker.

Smith can find true success on two teams I think -- Detroit, and Carolina. Those two teams play a soft, Euro, perimeter style. He'd fit in like a glove there.

In any system where he is even remotely expected to do anything other than find some open ice for his line mates to find him, he is going to need elite players to put him at the 40+ points.

Also, Eriksson is easily getting 5-6 million on his next contract, for 4+ years. And I really doubt he wants to come back here, he will probably want a fresh start.

 

[BB88]

eh, i just don't see it. He has no reason to take a hometown deal, the team is kind of in flux. he really hasn't made that much, he took a sweetheart deal with Dallas that paid him the 4.2m per after he was putting up 60-70 point seasons.

With that deal he would have made 40M+ in his career just by contracts, is that not so much ?
And doesn't that tell you that he's not after the max money and wants security 1st?

 

[Man Rocket]

With that deal he would have made 40M+ in his career just by contracts, is that not so much ?

not enough for him to take a hometown discount IMO. maybe if he had been making over 5m per on his prior contract. I'd be absolutely shocked if he signed for what he makes now or less..

 

[BB88]

not enough for him to take a hometown discount IMO. maybe if he had been making over 5m per on his prior contract. I'd be absolutely shocked if he signed for what he makes now or less..

"doesn't that tell you that he's not after the max money and wants security 1st?" added on my previous but you answered already.

Man these guys are hungry for money then But same thing with Lucic, ask him this offseason, ask him and go from there, not do like Chia did and just assume.

 

[wintersej]

"doesn't that tell you that he's not after the max money and wants security 1st?" added on my previous but you answered already.

Man these guys are hungry for money then But same thing with Lucic, ask him this offseason, ask him and go from there, not do like Chia did and just assume.

Did Chia assume incorrectly?

If I'm Loui and Soda is still around, maybe I stay. But, he will get a much better shake elsewhere, TBH. He would certainly fit in great in Detroit, for instance.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

"doesn't that tell you that he's not after the max money and wants security 1st?" added on my previous but you answered already.

Man these guys are hungry for money then But same thing with Lucic, ask him this offseason, ask him and go from there, not do like Chia did and just assume.

I think he will want to make up for being underpaid the last several years by a few million per year!

Especially after the double concussion scare -- I think he will know to put financial security #1 at this point.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

False, I'd say.

It has been well noted that the Julien system does inhibit individual stats -- for the good players. Players like Marchand, Bergeron. Seguin. Krejci. Eriksson. Etc.

The same system is the reason we ended up with these overpaid contracts like Kelly and now Smith -- the system makes the weaker passengers look stronger, and the stronger offensive players look weaker.

Smith can find true success on two teams I think -- Detroit, and Carolina. Those two teams play a soft, Euro, perimeter style. He'd fit in like a glove there.

In any system where he is even remotely expected to do anything other than find some open ice for his line mates to find him, he is going to need elite players to put him at the 40+ points.

Also, Eriksson is easily getting 5-6 million on his next contract, for 4+ years. And I really doubt he wants to come back here, he will probably want a fresh start.

The "system" is why the B's ended up overpaying guys? That's the first time I have heard that theory espoused (seems like it would actually prevent that).

And here I thought it was the B's ex-GM that was responsible for those bad contracts...

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

The "system" is why the B's ended up overpaying guys? That's the first time I have heard that theory espoused (seems like it would actually prevent that).

And here I thought it was the B's ex-GM that was responsible for those bad contracts...

Certainly. But try believing Chris Kelly scores 20 goals on any other team in any other system. The system as it is designed slows the high end scorers and boosts the depth guys.

Don't really mind it, so long as our GM is moderately capable of understanding that, especially with regards to a Chris Kelly type player.

 

[TripleOT]

I have this to say,just this,

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=G4phHwSSing

That's a funny skit..

 

[BB88]

Did Chia assume incorrectly?

If I'm Loui and Soda is still around, maybe I stay. But, he will get a much better shake elsewhere, TBH. He would certainly fit in great in Detroit, for instance.

We will never know.

Lou is a top6 guy, we need those and play marchand-bergeron-eriksson next year and watch the magic when we have the best shutdown line in the league. All of them can play big minutes and score points, let spooner/Krecji bring offense with their guys.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

Certainly. But try believing Chris Kelly scores 20 goals on any other team in any other system. The system as it is designed slows the high end scorers and boosts the depth guys.

Don't really mind it, so long as our GM is moderately capable of understanding that, especially with regards to a Chris Kelly type player.

Agreed there.

Any system that emphasizes four line play and limits the TOI of your Top 3 and gives the Bottom 6 more TOI is going to have a similar effect, but:

1) The player that gets more TOI has to do something with it, which Kelly did.

2) This same system limits the O stats of the "stars", so you should be paying them less.

The fact that Chia overpaid a guy like Kelly for an aberration year, and didn't save some money on the higher end guys because of diminished TOI is all on him.

If Kelly had gotten $2m per and a limited NMC instead of $3m, very few here would be complaining. The problem is that overpaying your Bottom 6 makes it incapable of paying a guy like Iginla to stay.

 

[LouJersey]

False, I'd say.

It has been well noted that the Julien system does inhibit individual stats -- for the good players. Players like Marchand, Bergeron. Seguin. Krejci. Eriksson. Etc.

The same system is the reason we ended up with these overpaid contracts like Kelly and now Smith -- the system makes the weaker passengers look stronger, and the stronger offensive players look weaker.

Smith can find true success on two teams I think -- Detroit, and Carolina. Those two teams play a soft, Euro, perimeter style. He'd fit in like a glove there.

In any system where he is even remotely expected to do anything other than find some open ice for his line mates to find him, he is going to need elite players to put him at the 40+ points.

Also, Eriksson is easily getting 5-6 million on his next contract, for 4+ years. And I really doubt he wants to come back here, he will probably want a fresh start.

Certainly not Smith. He needs to work on his strength on the puck, but he isn't soft IMO.

 

[GordonHowe]

That's a funny skit..

Not for everyone but I miss Craig Ferguson.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Certainly not Smith. He needs to work on his strength on the puck, but he isn't soft IMO.

Really? Maybe I'm just overly optimistic of Connolly but I saw more grit and battle in the few games with him than ever with Smith. Of course, Smith is no Seguin or Kessel but always got the impression his board play is half hearted.

 

[DitClapper]

I think it'll come down to keeping one of Smith or Eriksson. I honestly don't see both on Neely's squad next year. Do either player fit Cam's seeing eye? Probably not. There is just no way I see both of them wearing black and gold in the 2015-16 season.

 

[DoubleAAAA]

False, I'd say.

It has been well noted that the Julien system does inhibit individual stats -- for the good players. Players like Marchand, Bergeron. Seguin. Krejci. Eriksson. Etc.

The same system is the reason we ended up with these overpaid contracts like Kelly and now Smith -- the system makes the weaker passengers look stronger, and the stronger offensive players look weaker.

Smith can find true success on two teams I think -- Detroit, and Carolina. Those two teams play a soft, Euro, perimeter style. He'd fit in like a glove there.

In any system where he is even remotely expected to do anything other than find some open ice for his line mates to find him, he is going to need elite players to put him at the 40+ points.

Also, Eriksson is easily getting 5-6 million on his next contract, for 4+ years. And I really doubt he wants to come back here, he will probably want a fresh start.

Here's the thing though, those players are paid on what they DO produce in the system. If Smith turned into a 60-70 pt guy elsewhere, he'd be worth more than $3.5M he gets paid for the production that he's actually produced. If he was unable to produce 40-50 pts on another team, he wouldn't get $3.5M. Kelly got paid because he produced in the system. It was an anomolous year, he's not the first and certainly won't be the last to cash in on a good contract year performance.

Regardless of what you believe the system does to impact a players performance and production, that production is the basis of their market value and ultimately their worth.

 

[DoubleAAAA]

I think it'll come down to keeping one of Smith or Eriksson. I honestly don't see both on Neely's squad next year. Do either player fit Cam's seeing eye? Probably not. There is just no way I see both of them wearing black and gold in the 2015-16 season.

I agree with this. I like both guys, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see one of them moved in the name of "being harder to play against".

Edit: in regards to who I'd rather see go, for me it's Loui based solely on the fact that he's exiting his prime and is due for a decline in production and increase in salary with his term coming up sooner. I think Loui is the better player without a doubt, but I also believe Smith is the better asset.

 

[ashnathan]

I think it'll come down to keeping one of Smith or Eriksson. I honestly don't see both on Neely's squad next year. Do either player fit Cam's seeing eye? Probably not. There is just no way I see both of them wearing black and gold in the 2015-16 season.

I do. Eriksson for what he is, is cheap. Smith is market value (although I would rather see him flipped)

Kelly won't be coming back in my opinion, I think he'll waive when asked. The Lucic situation is the most intriguing part for me.

 

[Ice Nine]

Certainly. But try believing Chris Kelly scores 20 goals on any other team in any other system. The system as it is designed slows the high end scorers and boosts the depth guys.

Don't really mind it, so long as our GM is moderately capable of understanding that, especially with regards to a Chris Kelly type player.

This is an interesting observation that I hadn't thought of much -- I've always focused on how the "system" reduces scoring for the better players.

We talk about Kelly's 20 goal season as a single season "aberration", interestingly, if you look at Smith's stats, his 20 goal season was actually not a single season aberration but actually a single month aberration.

Smith seems to be a good goal scorer in the month of December, and mediocre the rest of the season.

In 2013/14, Smith scored 20 goals. He scored 9 of those goals in December, 2013. That's 45% of his goal production in the entire season. His remaining goals were spread out over the other 7 months of the season.

In 2014/15, Smith scored 13 goals. He scored 5 of those goals in December, 2014. That's 40% of his goal production in the entire season.

I'm not sure what to make of that.

 

[PB37]

This is an interesting observation that I hadn't thought of much -- I've always focused on how the "system" reduces scoring for the better players.

We talk about Kelly's 20 goal season as a single season "aberration", interestingly, if you look at Smith's stats, his 20 goal season was actually not a single season aberration but actually a single month aberration.

Smith seems to be a good goal scorer in the month of December, and mediocre the rest of the season.

In 2013/14, Smith scored 20 goals. He scored 9 of those goals in December, 2013. That's 45% of his goal production in the entire season. His remaining goals were spread out over the other 7 months of the season.

In 2014/15, Smith scored 13 goals. He scored 5 of those goals in December, 2014. That's 40% of his goal production in the entire season.

I'm not sure what to make of that.

I don't get the comparison you're trying to make. It seems like a huge reach to me.

Chris Kelly is 34, and has played 740 games.

Reilly Smith is 24, and has played in 203 games.

Let's give Smith a chance here before branding his first year here an aberration.

 

[ODAAT]

This is an interesting observation that I hadn't thought of much -- I've always focused on how the "system" reduces scoring for the better players.

We talk about Kelly's 20 goal season as a single season "aberration", interestingly, if you look at Smith's stats, his 20 goal season was actually not a single season aberration but actually a single month aberration.

Smith seems to be a good goal scorer in the month of December, and mediocre the rest of the season.

In 2013/14, Smith scored 20 goals. He scored 9 of those goals in December, 2013. That's 45% of his goal production in the entire season. His remaining goals were spread out over the other 7 months of the season.

In 2014/15, Smith scored 13 goals. He scored 5 of those goals in December, 2014. That's 40% of his goal production in the entire season.

I'm not sure what to make of that.

He`s a still young, developing player, young players struggle with consistency,that`s all I make of it

 

[Man Rocket]

I'm warming up to keeping Smith over Eriksson next year. It was a down year for everyone. If Smith puts up another stinker season then ship him out and try to resign Loui though. He's cheaper and right now has less value than Eriksson. If we can get a good return for Loui at the deadline I would move him for top 4 D help or futures (1st rounder + roster player im sure he could get). It also helps that Smith is 6 years younger. You know Loui is going to command 5-5.5m, essentially making you choose between him and Lucic. I'd rather move Loui and sign Lucic.

After Smith's contract is up in two seasons, most likely he will be making in the 4-4.5m range, more affordable than Loui. His offensive production has been for the most part = or better than Eriksson's since 2013. Loui is the more complete player though

 

[Jean_Jacket41]

He`s a still young, developing player, young players struggle with consistency,that`s all I make of it

Almost all players in the NHL struggle with consistency. Those that aren't are ppg or 40 goals scorers.

Smith can play on my team. Even if he doesn't take the next step in his development and stays a 15-20g/40-50pts players, that is already worth his new contract.

Then, there is also the possibility that he do take the next step and improve to say 20-25g/50-60pts. In that case, the same people that are whinning now would whine again because he was only signed to a 2y extension and can now ask for 5M...

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

Almost all players in the NHL struggle with consistency. Those that aren't are ppg or 40 goals scorers.

Smith can play on my team. Even if he doesn't take the next step in his development and stays a 15-20g/40-50pts players, that is already worth his new contract.

Then, there is also the possibility that he do take the next step and improve to say 20-25g/50-60pts. In that case, the same people that are whinning now would whine again because he was only signed to a 2y extension and can now ask for 5M...

been posting here over 10 years and the bold line is maybe the biggest thing I've seen fans continuously fail to understand.

So many people on this board want third line guys to produce like elite forwards yet get paid like third liners.