Post-Game Talk: Refs Appreciation Thread

[Aerchon]

I think it is a mix of

a) not backchecking hard enough (looks better this season so far, I agree!)
b) sub-par goaltending and defense
c) playing a lot of games with an empty net when behind

Is there actually a stat somewhere how a single player is doing with an empty net?

So if Drai actually was a +2 player last year, maybe you could add another +5 with better goaltending and another +5 with a better overall defense (that is only +1 for every 8 games which sounds realistic), as well as another +3 for not being on a terrible team that pulls the goalie every game. It adds up quickly and in a vacuum the first line is more of a +15 line instead of +2. Nobody knows for sure I guess ...

Do empty net goals against count as a minus? I do not believe it does.

Plus Minus is flawed stat for sure but with context can be pretty useful.

With the way McDrai get paid they need to have a bigger impact on 5v5 goal differential. Obviously it's a team game and they have no impact on bad goaltending BUT with the numbers they put up both "should " easily be +25 by season end with average nhl goaltending with the defense we have. My opinion.

Last year the only excuse I would give them is just how bad Talbot was to start last year. You could probably tack on +5 or +10 with just how terrible he was.

 

[Pulju Propagandist]

It seems like it should be simple to get this rule right:

Whatever is called on the ice can be overturned by video review in the last 2 minutes...or whatever time frame or Coach's Challenge. Check video, if puck was loose....call it a goal...even if the ref blew the play down. He was wrong and video can clearly show that...I don't know, why is this so hard for them to get right?

Clearly Connors goal should've been a goal and video clearly showed what the ref didn't see. Go with the video and not a bad/wrong call.

 

[FlameChampion]

What I don't really get is how it got ruled a goal on the ice due to the intent to blow rule.

I think the league should shift to calls working out like they did last night being the norm(refs being allowed to admit they messed up, mostly) but by my interpretation of the rules I'm not really sure they should have let that goal stand.

Goal should of counted but I am surprised that it did. I thought for sure it wasnt going to count. But I do think the ref said it was a good goal before they reviewed it so thats likely the reason.

I think the whistle blew after it went into the net, it was a bang bang play. But in years past, it was always the intention of the whistle being blowed not the actual whistle blow. I read somewhere, that they had changed the rule. I agree though, its nice to see the refs have some say in the play. I just see more calls going our way this year than in previous years.

 

[Arpeggio]

The Oilers are definitely going to fall back to earth at some point, but if there is a season where the Oilers experience some "unsustainable success", this is the one to do it. The team is going to be peaking two seasons from now (hopefully), and they'll have a better roster next year than this year. So if the Oilers can rip off a hot start and then sneak into the playoffs, despite below average advanced stats, I'll be thrilled.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

I didnt like him on the third goal. He bit hard and his attempt to recover was really poor.

But he played hard, made some nice saves and was better than NJ's goalie. When that happens, you have a chance to win. Too many times in the last 2 years, the other teams goalie has simply been better. Smith was better than Markstrom in game 1. Koskinen was better than Blackwood in game 4. We should probably be 2-2 but its nice to see our goalies helping us winning games rather than losing us games like in the past 2 years.

Part of Koskinen not being able to recover though was because first he got tangled up with Nurse, then the Devils player. I was questioning if they were going to challenge that goal given that the Devils player interfered with Koskinen's ability to recover but i don't think there was enough to reverse the call on the goal. There was certainly enough to have an effect though.

Overall though Koskinen was better than he was against the Islanders. He made some huge stops, and was a wall as usual in the shootout. I would go back to him against the Rangers, there's not really cause to put Smith back in at this point. I think likely Tippett will just ride the hot hand this year, and barring injury I'd be a little surprised if either Koskinen or Smith got less than 30 games apiece.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Advanced statistics and analytics are starting to be used in every single field in the world to help drive efficiency and make better decisions. These will help you find leading indicators of performance rather than lagging and can help you in your decision-making to start to maximize certain variables. I’d be interested in s multivariate analysis from all statistics over the last 3 years to find which variable(s) have the greatest effect on a team’s or individual’s performance.

As an Albertan, this might hit closer to home if you are working in the Oil & Gas industry. Drilling & Completions are optimized for the regional geology and can yield significantly better wells than just a cookie-cutter approach. Every major oil company is now using analytics to drive their corporate decision making, and those failing to do so are being left behind in this era of record low commodity prices.

I've actually done multivariate analysis on several years of NHL stats... GF% holds up quite well in relation to other stats based on shots/corsi/fenwick etc... likely (and logically) because it actually looks at what actually counts on the scoreboard... GF and GA.

Not saying there isn't value in looking at esoteric stats derived from other factors but quite often if you want to know what actually has the biggest effect on team and individual scoring... you just need to look at a large enough sample size of games and you'll find that GF% data gives as good a correlation to end results in terms of GF% as any other data out there.

Keep in mind that contextual stats such as zone starts, TOI data, Quality of teammates, Quality of competition does matter as well for individual results... but at the team level... looking at GF% with a large enough sample size (40+ games) gives a high correlation to end of season results. Other projections based on other stats and smaller sample sizes such as 10/20/30 games give much less reliable correlations to end of season results than simple GF% gives.

Not arguing about other fields as obviously every field has a different level of analysis... but that's outside the scope of looking at GF and GA at the NHL level.

I haven't done multivariate analysis on other industries (well I have in one area... but it has no applicability to either the Oil & Gas industry or Hockey). What I have seen though is that it takes a completely different view depending on what the field is to find the statistics that correlate highly to what you are actually looking for... sometimes there is definite value to "esoteric" stats... but often the simplest and most intuitive stats results in the best end results as well.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Do empty net goals against count as a minus? I do not believe it does.

Plus Minus is flawed stat for sure but with context can be pretty useful.

With the way McDrai get paid they need to have a bigger impact on 5v5 goal differential. Obviously it's a team game and they have no impact on bad goaltending BUT with the numbers they put up both "should " easily be +25 by season end with average nhl goaltending with the defense we have. My opinion.

Last year the only excuse I would give them is just how bad Talbot was to start last year. You could probably tack on +5 or +10 with just how terrible he was.

I believe empty net goals and short handed goals against count aswell.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

What I don't really get is how it got ruled a goal on the ice due to the intent to blow rule.

I think the league should shift to calls working out like they did last night being the norm(refs being allowed to admit they messed up, mostly) but by my interpretation of the rules I'm not really sure they should have let that goal stand.

I think they changed the rule. At least that's what the Devils broadcast said.

 

[nabob]

It sure looked to me like Nurse backed into the crease and his skate caught Koskinen’s skate and tripped him up. Not blaming Nurse, cause **** happens, but I don’t think Koskinen just fell over for no reason.

yes that’s exactly what happened. I had to watch it a few times to why he went down like that. You could argue that the Devils player pushed Nurse into the Kosikinen but I doubt they’d win that challenge

 

[alphahelix]

yes that’s exactly what happened. I had to watch it a few times to why he went down like that. You could argue that the Devils player pushed Nurse into the Kosikinen but I doubt they’d win that challenge

Tippett said they considered challenging it, and maybe in a different game state they would have because they thought it was close, but they didn’t want to risk the 2 minute minor if the refs disagreed. I didn’t think it was a fair play.

 

[joestevens29]

What I don't really get is how it got ruled a goal on the ice due to the intent to blow rule.

I think the league should shift to calls working out like they did last night being the norm(refs being allowed to admit they messed up, mostly) but by my interpretation of the rules I'm not really sure they should have let that goal stand.

The problem and it isn't just in the NHL is a lot of refs don't have the guts to go against their initial call.

 

[iCanada]

I've actually done multivariate analysis on several years of NHL stats... GF% holds up quite well in relation to other stats based on shots/corsi/fenwick etc... likely (and logically) because it actually looks at what actually counts on the scoreboard... GF and GA.

Not saying there isn't value in looking at esoteric stats derived from other factors but quite often if you want to know what actually has the biggest effect on team and individual scoring... you just need to look at a large enough sample size of games and you'll find that GF% data gives as good a correlation to end results in terms of GF% as any other data out there.

Keep in mind that contextual stats such as zone starts, TOI data, Quality of teammates, Quality of competition does matter as well for individual results... but at the team level... looking at GF% with a large enough sample size (40+ games) gives a high correlation to end of season results. Other projections based on other stats and smaller sample sizes such as 10/20/30 games give much less reliable correlations to end of season results than simple GF% gives.

Not arguing about other fields as obviously every field has a different level of analysis... but that's outside the scope of looking at GF and GA at the NHL level.

I haven't done multivariate analysis on other industries (well I have in one area... but it has no applicability to either the Oil & Gas industry or Hockey). What I have seen though is that it takes a completely different view depending on what the field is to find the statistics that correlate highly to what you are actually looking for... sometimes there is definite value to "esoteric" stats... but often the simplest and most intuitive stats results in the best end results as well.

Tbh, I think scoring chance % stats are the NHL equivalent of on base %.

Corsi/fenwick is the baseball equivalent of number of times at the plate to bat; an important contextual number, but not a big big deal individually. Indeed a better player will have more possession, but a better player will also do more with the same possession. And frankly, like baseball, I don't ultimately care about how many times a guy is batting, I care about how often he is able to get on base which is a proxy for scoring.

I think more talented players (such as McDrai) should be able to have more HDSC% with the same time. I'd assume that that's the best predictor over time but I'm assuming.

 

[nabob]

My comments were in regards to regulation time as I don't feel this game even should have gone to OT.

I could see Smith stopping all but one goal in this one.

In anycase without the late game heroics of McD drawing a penalty and then scoring a goal in the last minute, the Oilers would have lost, and these glowing comments about Koski, I dare say, wouldn't have been occurring.

I could check realtime comments in the thread but wonder how many groan posts there were when Koski was flopping like a whale on the ice as the Devils scored a late go ahead goal. That was ugly.

edit; So I just checked. I must be Nostradamus. There were 10 realtime posts in the GDT blaming Koskinen for the goal, asking why he was flopping. Only 2 posts defended him.

Its classic revisionism, and its something I observe a lot of on the board. If we lose this game Koski was nothing much and nobody talking about him being great. Probably most thinking he wasn't all that good. But he makes a couple stops in extra time and all is forgiven because Draisaitl seals the deal on a wicked winning shot. If Koski has to face that shot he's letting it in too.

Just to point out, again, the teams we're facing have to contend with all of McD, Drai, Neal. Koski had mostly Hall to worry about. Also two goal posts on shots that got by Koski tonight. One in OT when I'm told Koski was great.

you’re really reaching here Replacement. None of McDavid, Drai or Neal really had strong games. The Devils has way more scoring chances and high danger scoring chances.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

yes that’s exactly what happened. I had to watch it a few times to why he went down like that. You could argue that the Devils player pushed Nurse into the Kosikinen but I doubt they’d win that challenge

That was tough, the Oilers really lost contain in the defensive zone on that play. If Koskinen isn't jostled maybe he gets over, but that was likely a goal regardless, though I thought he made a number of good saves going across the crease and being big.

 

[iCanada]

My comments were in regards to regulation time as I don't feel this game even should have gone to OT.

I could see Smith stopping all but one goal in this one.

In anycase without the late game heroics of McD drawing a penalty and then scoring a goal in the last minute, the Oilers would have lost, and these glowing comments about Koski, I dare say, wouldn't have been occurring.

I could check realtime comments in the thread but wonder how many groan posts there were when Koski was flopping like a whale on the ice as the Devils scored a late go ahead goal. That was ugly.

edit; So I just checked. I must be Nostradamus. There were 10 realtime posts in the GDT blaming Koskinen for the goal, asking why he was flopping. Only 2 posts defended him.

Its classic revisionism, and its something I observe a lot of on the board. If we lose this game Koski was nothing much and nobody talking about him being great. Probably most thinking he wasn't all that good. But he makes a couple stops in extra time and all is forgiven because Draisaitl seals the deal on a wicked winning shot. If Koski has to face that shot he's letting it in too.

Just to point out, again, the teams we're facing have to contend with all of McD, Drai, Neal. Koski had mostly Hall to worry about. Also two goal posts on shots that got by Koski tonight. One in OT when I'm told Koski was great.

I think starting Koskinen vs the devil's was the right call.

I think the devil's are the kind of team that make a puck moving goaltenders life hell. They forecheck hard with numbers and are friggen fast. Turns game into a coin flip.

I like Smith a lot, a lot more than Koski to be quite clear, but... Koski was the right choice and he won the goaltending battle by a lot.

 

[alphahelix]

I think starting Koskinen vs the devil's was the right call.

I think the devil's are the kind of team that make a puck moving goaltenders life hell. They forecheck hard with numbers and are friggen fast. Turns game into a coin flip.

I like Smith a lot, a lot more than Koski to be quite clear, but... Koski was the right choice and he won the goaltending battle by a lot.

I think Smith’s numbers look a lot better if you subtract the 2 giveaway freebies. When he is actually in his net, he has been making some pretty good saves.

 

[ElysiumAB]

Almost lost it when he let in that third goal. Far too often he falls for no reason and gives the other team a wide open net to shoot at. Other than that I thought he played fine.

I watched that like four times trying to figure out how he fell down.

After the goal I thought it must be goaltender interference, then I thought Nurse/Edmonton player must've knocked him over...... then I was just baffled.

 

[iCanada]

I think Smith’s numbers look a lot better if you subtract the 2 giveaway freebies. When he is actually in his net, he has been making some pretty good saves.

I meant the battle vs Blackwood.

 

[nexttothemoon]

4 games is certainly a small sample size... but the indisputable fact is that the Oilers are banking pts.. 8 so far and they can't be removed whether corsi/shots/fenwick/scoring chances etc think they should be.

Of course the team needs to improve in some areas... this is a team that missed the playoffs 12 of 13 years... so to think they instantly turned into a perfect squad is obviously unrealistic... but they are developing a resilience and an attitude that they aren't out of games that will carry them far this season if they can stick to that level of work and effort.

Some stats so far:

PP 4th in the NHL
PK 4th in the NHL
Shooting % 1st in the NHL
Save % 19th in the NHL (They are at 90.2% which is still slightly above the average of 89.9%)

It's likely the PP and PK may regress because it's obviously hard to maintain a top 5 PP and PK.. but it could also be the case that they have improved their roster to the point that they WILL have a better than average PP and PK as well.

Shooting % likely declines from being #1 in the NHL... but again it's quite possible that the systems and overall philosophy being instilled in this team.. and the current roster mix... leads them to have an above average team shooting percentage as well.

Team save % is basically average right now... so there's an area that could actually improve (and likely needs to)... so they certainly aren't getting unsustainable goaltending as part of this early success.

Overall they are getting goals when it counts and they are beating teams that obviously want the win as bad as they do... just like most games at this early stage of the season that are hard fought and where all teams are trying to get off to good starts. No teams are at the stage of throwing in the towel at this early stage and playing "garbage time" games... all teams are filled with hungry personnel trying to make an impression and get off to good starts at this stage... including the Oilers.

 

[frag2]

I watched that like four times trying to figure out how he fell down.

After the goal I thought it must be goaltender interference, then I thought Nurse/Edmonton player must've knocked him over...... then I was just baffled.

If there's one thing Nurse needs to learn when it comes to standing in front of the Oilers net, he needs to have better communication with his goalie. Remenda even quipped about Nurse standing in front can end up hurting the goalie more than help even if he's just trying to block/battle

Hopefully he learns.

 

[ElysiumAB]

I was just watching Draisaitl's post game interview and its the same monotone interview he always gives.

?

Everyone knows he says boring things, he gives the real answer via morse code with his sniffles.

 

[9GWG9]

Why in Laine listed as the leader in points when he has played 1 more game?

I know it’s a little early but it seems odd.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Why in Laine listed as the leader in points when he has played 1 more game?

I know it’s a little early but it seems odd.

Looking at how they rank all the players in the stats rankings that are tied... I think it's just random... there doesn't seem to be any certain way they order the players when they are tied in goals and assists.

 

[iCanada]

Why in Laine listed as the leader in points when he has played 1 more game?

I know it’s a little early but it seems odd.

Because Laine leading in points is more exciting than McDavid leading in points. Zzz...

4 games is certainly a small sample size... but the indisputable fact is that the Oilers are banking pts.. 8 so far and they can't be removed whether corsi/shots/fenwick/scoring chances etc think they should be.

Of course the team needs to improve in some areas... this is a team that missed the playoffs 12 of 13 years... so to think they' instantly turned into a perfect squad is obviously unrealistic... but they are developing a resilience and an attitude that they aren't out of games that will carry them far this season if they can stick to that level of work and effort.

Some stats so far:

PP 4th in the NHL
PK 4th in the NHL
Shooting % 1st in the NHL
Save % 19th in the NHL (They are at 90.2% which is still slightly above the average of 89.9%)

It's likely the PP and PK may regress because it's obviously hard to maintain a top 5 PP and PK.. but it could also be the case that they have improved their roster to the point that they WILL have a better than average PP and PK as well.

Shooting % likely declines from being #1 in the NHL... but again it's quite possible that the systems and overall philosophy being instilled in this team.. and the current roster mix... lads them to have an above average team shooting percentage as well.

Team save % is basically average right now... so there's an area that could actually improve (and likely needs to)... so they certainly aren't getting unsustainable goaltending as part of this early success.

Overall they are getting goals when it counts and they are beating teams that obviously want the win as bad as they do... just like most games at this early stage of the season that are hard fought and where all teams are trying to get off to good starts. No teams are at the stage of throwing in the towel at this early stage and playing "garbage time" games... all teams are filled with hungry personnel trying to make and impression and get off to good starts at this stage... including the Oilers.

Tbh I would expect our SH% to stay high. We have McDrai playing half the damn game and on the pp they create so much pressure and allow other players to be quite dangerous for free.

Look at Neal's pp goals; he's basically uncontested in front because of all the threat McDrai generate. That's why it's been so frustrating last few years that we had no PMD / poor bet front presence, it allowed the opponent's pk to cheat to McDrai for free because we didn't have threats elsewhere.

We literally got Letestu like 15 pp goals in a season. Lol. Of course when you put a guy like Neal there it's explosive.

Now... I expect our SH% to be high. And I know we've been plucky, but tbh I thought it was higher than it is. Our 16.7% I'd bet will fall to around 12% isn't outrageous compared to the league. For reference, the lightning are at 16.2%.

 

[Spawn]

I'm kind of losing faith in NatStatTrick.

Somehow Leon's goal wasn't considered a high danger chance. Granlund's breakaway too.

I knew they had a strange criteria for high danger chances before, but it seems like it's got worse.

Problem with any of these scoring chance stats is that they all seem to rely on where a shot is taken from on the ice. But the whale in the room for that stat is there is absolutely zero % chance that is accurately tracked.

Junk numbers in mean junk numbers out. They're literally worthless. Worse even, they can be detrimental because people make assessments of teams/players out of it.

The only way these "stats" can have value is if we get to a point where the NHL is actually accurately tracking where shots are coming from on the ice. And not just some dude sitting up in the press box putting points on a replica rink based on where he thought a shot came from 20 seconds before.

Even than, the stat is flawed. It's not measuring "high danger scoring chances" it's measuring shots from certain areas of the ice. Those don't mean the same thing. It's the same thing with people calling shot metrics a "possession" stat. That isn't what it tracks!