Post-Game Talk: Refs Appreciation Thread

[Aerrol]

Do empty net goals against count as a minus? I do not believe it does.

Plus Minus is flawed stat for sure but with context can be pretty useful.

With the way McDrai get paid they need to have a bigger impact on 5v5 goal differential. Obviously it's a team game and they have no impact on bad goaltending BUT with the numbers they put up both "should " easily be +25 by season end with average nhl goaltending with the defense we have. My opinion.

Last year the only excuse I would give them is just how bad Talbot was to start last year. You could probably tack on +5 or +10 with just how terrible he was.

They can improve but easily be +25 is such nonsense. From last year:

Kucherov, 128 pts, +24
Kane, 110 pts, +2
Marchand 100 pts, +15
Crosby 100 pts, +18
MacKinnon 99 pts, +18
Gaudreay 99 pts, +18
Stamkos 98 pts, +4
Barkov 96 pts, - 4 (5th place selke voting!)

Not a single player in the top 10 including two from the stacked Lightning and one from the 'best line in hockey' on the Bruins hit your 'easy to reach' mark.

Skipping to some notables:
Huberdeau 92 pts, - 14
Wheeler 91 pts +/- 0
Scheifele 84 pts +8.


In other words, +/- is still obviously the dumbest stat in hockey and even if you disagree, your weird target of +25 is waaaay off base.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Because Laine leading in points is more exciting than McDavid leading in points. Zzz...



Tbh I would expect our SH% to stay high. We have McDrai playing half the damn game and on the pp they create so much pressure and allow other players to be quite dangerous for free.

Look at Neal's pp goals; he's basically uncontested in front because of all the threat McDrai generate. That's why it's been so frustrating last few years that we had no PMD / poor bet front presence, it allowed the opponent's pk to cheat to McDrai for free because we didn't have threats elsewhere.

We literally got Letestu like 15 pp goals in a season. Lol. Of course when you put a guy like Neal there it's explosive.

Now... I expect our SH% to be high. And I know we've been plucky, but tbh I thought it was higher than it is. Our 16.7% I'd bet will fall to around 12% isn't outrageous compared to the league. For reference, the lightning are at 16.2%.

12% would be exceptional... only 1 team in the last decade+ has had a 12% shooting percentage.. TB last year.. and they finished with 128 pts.

The trend towards higher offense looks to be continuing though... as the league-wide sv% is slipping below 90% for the 1st time in many, many years so there will likely be more teams with higher shooting percentages. Remains to be seen whether than holds up or not... or whether officiating starts calling less penalties as the season goes on, goaltending and defense league wide tightens up as the season progresses etc etc.

Certainly having a high shooting % helps a ton though as it essentially gives your team a clear advantage in the goal scoring department if a team can regularly cash in on their chances.

 

[GodPucker]

we still have no secondary scoring

17 goals scored 15 from 4 players

I agree, but I would also say that the puck still has to be put into the net by people not named McDavid/Drai/RNH. That has been happening. Would somebody else last year have potted 7 goals already not named those 3?

 

[iCanada]

Problem with any of these scoring chance stats is that they all seem to rely on where a shot is taken from on the ice. But the whale in the room for that stat is there is absolutely zero % chance that is accurately tracked.

Junk numbers in mean junk numbers out. They're literally worthless. Worse even, they can be detrimental because people make assessments of teams/players out of it.

The only way these "stats" can have value is if we get to a point where the NHL is actually accurately tracking where shots are coming from on the ice. And not just some dude sitting up in the press box putting points on a replica rink based on where he thought a shot came from 20 seconds before.

Even than, the stat is flawed. It's not measuring "high danger scoring chances" it's measuring shots from certain areas of the ice. Those don't mean the same thing. It's the same thing with people calling shot metrics a "possession" stat. That isn't what it tracks!

I don't think these stats are garbage, you just need to determine and monitor the human error and bias involved and understand the effect that has on the data.

Based on my experience in manufacturing and controlling for human error rates, I'd say that there would be an error in entry approximately 5 to 6% of the time.

Human Error Rate Tables have answers to Human Error Prevention, Error Proof and Mistake Proof Solutions to Human Errors

For reference, the table in this lean manufacturing article would define a routine task with care required (such as tracking where shots are taken from), and picking the most complicated gives you a 5 to 6% rate of failure.

Worth noting, that even a failure on something like this isn't necessarily skewing the data the whole 5%; they may only be out by a few feet, and I'd argue that over time error would cancel eachother out, because your error isn't a binary pass fail type operation.

 

[iCanada]

12% would be exceptional... only 1 team in the last decade+ has had a 12% shooting percentage.. TB last year.. and they finished with 128 pts.

The trend towards higher offense looks to be continuing though... as the league-wide sv% is slipping below 90% for the 1st time in many, many years so there will likely be more teams with higher shooting percentages. Remains to be seen whether than holds up or not... or whether officiating starts calling less penalties as the season goes on, goaltending and defense league wide tightens up as the season progresses etc etc.

Certainly having a high shooting % helps a ton though as it essentially gives your team a clear advantage in the goal scoring department if a team can regularly cash in on their chances.

Yeah, I took that into account with my guesstimate. Scoring looks to be up League wide.

 

[Paralyzer]

Why in Laine listed as the leader in points when he has played 1 more game?

I know it’s a little early but it seems odd.

Probably because they did it in Alphabetical order from last name:

LAINE
MCDAVID

 

[nexttothemoon]

I agree, but I would also say that the puck still has to be put into the net by people not named McDavid/Drai/RNH. That has been happening. Would somebody else last year have potted 7 goals already not named those 3?

Exactly... Neal is better depth scoring.

Last year it would have been just Drai and McD that the team was depending on to do 40% of the goal scoring.

Even 1 extra decent scorer to lighten the load helps a LOT because opposition can't key on McD and Drai quite as easily... and here we have McDavid getting 2.5 pts per game (and not even looking all that great doing it)... as proof of that.

Drai is at 2 pts per game as well...and other than the 1 exceptional game I don't think he's looked other-worldy yet either.

Point being, better depth makes your better players better as well because the opposition can't key on just your #1 and #2 players which allows them more space to create offense.

I'm absolutely sure that's why Kucherov got 128 pts last year (coincidently same pts as his team ).. not because he's better than McDavid... but because he simply had a much better team to create offense on. Kucherov's team had 90 goals more than McDavid's.. yet Kucherov scored only 12 more pts (while playing 4 more games as well).

Swap those players on those teams and McDavid would have had 150+ pts and Kucherov wouldn't likely have reached even 100.

McDavid was robbed on the Hart yet again.

 

[Shathar]

Just watched the post game. Tippet has a really hard time not being honest. It's refreshing after listening to our last few coaches.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Just watched the post game. Tippet has a really hard time not being honest. It's refreshing after listening to our last few coaches.

I think it'll keep the players honest too

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I think it'll keep the players honest too

Everyone knows the oilers didn’t deserve to win.

tippett
Holland
McDavid
Al from New Jersey

 

[GodPucker]

Part of Koskinen not being able to recover though was because first he got tangled up with Nurse, then the Devils player. I was questioning if they were going to challenge that goal given that the Devils player interfered with Koskinen's ability to recover but i don't think there was enough to reverse the call on the goal. There was certainly enough to have an effect though.

Overall though Koskinen was better than he was against the Islanders. He made some huge stops, and was a wall as usual in the shootout. I would go back to him against the Rangers, there's not really cause to put Smith back in at this point. I think likely Tippett will just ride the hot hand this year, and barring injury I'd be a little surprised if either Koskinen or Smith got less than 30 games apiece.

I posted it earlier, but this is more slowed down and a different angle. He bit hard and then Palmeiri was on top of him a tad as well.

 

[ElysiumAB]

Anyone interested in some ear candy?



(Not sure if it's been posted already)

I'm feeling feelings I haven't felt before.

 

[Aerchon]

Genuine question - what changes for this year are you referring to?

Sounds about right, I was watching the ref behind the goal and I don't think he made any hand motions whatsoever... which surprised me in real time because I thought I heard the whistle before the puck was in (though I had no idea where the puck was, so maybe I just heard the whistle before I saw celebrating).

I just think they always have that "intent to blow the whistle" reasoning, which gives them an out even if you can't hear the whistle before the puck crosses the line. I expected it to be no goal on the ice, and for the call to be upheld.

Once they said the call on the ice was a goal, I figured it was 50/50 after review.

I believe empty net goals and short handed goals against count aswell.

They can improve but easily be +25 is such nonsense. From last year:

Kucherov, 128 pts, +24
Kane, 110 pts, +2
Marchand 100 pts, +15
Crosby 100 pts, +18
MacKinnon 99 pts, +18
Gaudreay 99 pts, +18
Stamkos 98 pts, +4
Barkov 96 pts, - 4 (5th place selke voting!)

Not a single player in the top 10 including two from the stacked Lightning and one from the 'best line in hockey' on the Bruins hit your 'easy to reach' mark.

Skipping to some notables:
Huberdeau 92 pts, - 14
Wheeler 91 pts +/- 0
Scheifele 84 pts +8.


In other words, +/- is still obviously the dumbest stat in hockey and even if you disagree, your weird target of +25 is waaaay off base.

@ElysiumAB

Sorry don't know the details. Seen someone else mention it and remember hearing about the rule changes this year and generally speaking it falls within what I remember. I could be wrong.

@Al from New Jersey

My quick Google said empty net do not but SH do.

@Aerrol

+25 is way off when the mean for players around 100+ points is +18...

Not to mention McDavid is the highest paid player in the league...

I will moderate my stance and say Draisaitl "should" be +15 and McDavid +20. But realistically "The best player in the world" should be able to be even better when potting 116+ points in a year.

And of course plus minus is a meh stat. Primarily useful only when used properly in context. Like most stats... especially advanced stats.

 

[joestevens29]

I'm feeling feelings I haven't felt before.

Congrats on them dropping

 

[ElysiumAB]

@ElysiumAB

Sorry don't know the details. Seen someone else mention it and remember hearing about the rule changes this year and generally speaking it falls within what I remember. I could be wrong.

I actually happened to read the rule, after I asked.

It basically says, if the whistle blows and there is a goal directly after, it can still be a good goal, as long as the whistle didn't affect the play.

For instance, even if they had said no goal on the ice last night, then deemed the whistle went as the puck was crossing the line (meaning, whistle was irrelevant) that they can deem it a good goal. Whistle isn't the end of the play.

In this instance, I'm still guessing the call on the ice being good goal is what got them the break. I don't have faith they'd have the balls to reverse that.

 

[CupofOil]

@ElysiumAB

Sorry don't know the details. Seen someone else mention it and remember hearing about the rule changes this year and generally speaking it falls within what I remember. I could be wrong.

@Al from New Jersey

My quick Google said empty net do not but SH do.

@Aerrol

+25 is way off when the mean for players around 100+ points is +18...

Not to mention McDavid is the highest paid player in the league...

I will moderate my stance and say Draisaitl "should" be +15 and McDavid +20. But realistically "The best player in the world" should be able to be even better when potting 116+ points in a year.

And of course plus minus is a meh stat. Primarily useful only when used properly in context. Like most stats... especially advanced stats.

So why reference it at all?
And if you do reference it, why aren't you using any context like the fact that McDrai had arguably the worst supporting cast in the league last season which is primarily the reason for the modest +/- numbers.

They can't score, do all the defending and play goalie all at the same time. IF you see the defense and goalies they play with, you'll understand why their +/- isn't better so saying that they "should be" +15 or higher as if they are underperforming is pretty ridiculous if you ask me.
Hell, if you want to use +/- as an indicator of player performance, Benning was a better player than McDrai last season. See how silly that sounds?

 

[Yablo21]

Call her a thot

Not cool man.

 

[GodPucker]

Exactly... Neal is better depth scoring.

Last year it would have been just Drai and McD that the team was depending on to do 40% of the goal scoring.

Even 1 extra decent scorer to lighten the load helps a LOT because opposition can't key on McD and Drai quite as easily... and here we have McDavid getting 2.5 pts per game (and not even looking all that great doing it)... as proof of that.

Drai is at 2 pts per game as well...and other than the 1 exceptional game I don't think he's looked other-worldy yet either.

Point being, better depth makes your better players better as well because the opposition can't key on just your #1 and #2 players which allows them more space to create offense.

I'm absolutely sure that's why Kucherov got 128 pts last year (coincidently same pts as his team ).. not because he's better than McDavid... but because he simply had a much better team to create offense on. Kucherov's team had 90 goals more than McDavid's.. yet Kucherov scored only 12 more pts (while playing 4 more games as well).

Swap those players on those teams and McDavid would have had 150+ pts and Kucherov wouldn't likely have reached even 100.

McDavid was robbed on the Hart yet again.

100

Point was the driver on that line last night. Kucherov gets a lot of goals one timing the puck on the PP. It's MINDBOGGLING that people would take him over McDavid (Even though he is a really good player).

 

[Drivesaitl]

I think starting Koskinen vs the devil's was the right call.

I think the devil's are the kind of team that make a puck moving goaltenders life hell. They forecheck hard with numbers and are friggen fast. Turns game into a coin flip.

I like Smith a lot, a lot more than Koski to be quite clear, but... Koski was the right choice and he won the goaltending battle by a lot.

I grant that Koski was probably the best start for the Devils highspeed forecheck and counter. Smith probably plays too much of a risk game for this one. But I don't subscribe that the Devils goalies was in anyway not equal. Lets remember that the Devils goalie was having to stone McD, Drai, Nuge, Neal, repeatedly. His body of work is just harder, because the Oilers possess better scorers. The top end of Oilers scorers is about as top as it gets. With the Devils only Hall really scares me, Paccioretti because he seems to love rising against us.

I know its early in the season but I think sometimes our cognitions need to shift a bit. The Oilers are no longer a team that is requiring goalies to steal wins. That just isn't the case this year. Instead the Oilers are a team that will score as many goals as they need to be in the game, and are always dangerous. The first Oilers goal particularly was a spellbinding breakout. The kind of hilite that is going to give opposition teams, and coaches migraines. One second you have the puck behind the opponent net, the next you're belted with a legal check and some Bear steals your lunch and is running for the hills.

The Oilers are a handful now. Harder for opponent goalies to contend with then what we have to contend with on most nights. This is a new thing, but its now true.

 

[Soundwave]

I posted it earlier, but this is more slowed down and a different angle. He bit hard and then Palmeiri was on top of him a tad as well.

I think this actually probably would've won this if they challenged it. Palmeiri's foot looks to be entangled with Koskinen in the crease before the shot is released, that's goaltender interference.

 

[GodPucker]

I think this actually probably would've won this if they challenged it. Palmeiri's foot looks to be entangled with Koskinen in the crease before the shot is released, that's goaltender interference.

Yes, I think they could have won it. He is on top of Koskinnens skates. Koskinnen went down early, but his skates after were tangled.

 

[guymez]

I think this actually probably would've won this if they challenged it. Palmeiri's foot looks to be entangled with Koskinen in the crease before the shot is released, that's goaltender interference.

I am not so sure...one thing we do know is that trying to discern goaltender interference in the NHL is pretty tricky.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

I posted it earlier, but this is more slowed down and a different angle. He bit hard and then Palmeiri was on top of him a tad as well.

Right so he did bite and go down initially but then he goes and tries to push off of his left skate to come across and square up to Severson and before he can complete his push Nurse runs into his right pad causing him to lose his balance. If Nurse doesn't run into him at that crucial point he would've been able to push across and be in position to at least attempt a save while still upright.

Koskinen does flop on his back sometimes so I know it's easy to jump to that conclusion that that is what happened in this case but the video you've just shown as well as the other angles provided during the broadcast clearly show he was knocked over by Nurse, then further impeded by Palmieri.

 

[Soundwave]

I am not so sure...one thing we do know is that trying to discern goaltender interference in the NHL is pretty tricky.

If you freeze frame the video above right at 7 seconds in, you can see the shot hasn't been released yet, but Palmieri's left foot appears to be in the blue paint and in between Koskinen's pads.

That's goaltender interference. You shouldn't be able to do that, the goalie has to be able to at least try and make the save.

 

[guymez]

If you freeze frame the video above right at 7 seconds in, you can see the shot hasn't been released yet, but Palmieri's left foot appears to be in the blue paint and in between Koskinen's pads.

That's goaltender interference. You shouldn't be able to do that, the goalie has to be able to at least try and make the save.

Oh I agree.
I just dont have a lot of faith in the League to get the call right. I still have images of the 2017 playoffs flashing up when I think of an obvious Goaltender interference call.