For the sake of semantics.
Rebuild = without Karlsson
Retool = with Karlsson
Can people agree with that. A lot of this thread seems to be going in circles because of that and unless you claim that a team can win a cup without an elite "superstar" player (eventual HOF type players) then you need a rebuild to draft one or a retool to build up better around an existing one. If your plan is to trade EK 1:1 for another elite player than it's still a retool, just with a different elite player.
If it's a rebuild then you trade pretty much anyone over 25 where you can get value and position yourself for top 3 picks to give yourself the best statistical chance at building a new elite 1-2 player core. Rarely will anyone trade you an already draft top 3 player and I would be wary of picking up any player that was available because likely then we are way overpaying or they saw something in the player that they really didn't like after drafting. And unless you are dealing with Chiarelli, nobody is going to trade you and under 25 elite player. Certainly not without giving your own up in return.
So a rebuild is getting rid of EK, Hoffman, Duchene and loading up picks for the next couple seasons...and sucking really, really bad.
I am not advocating any of the above because frankly I see it as a 5 year plan to get back to exactly where we are now. A budget team that can only afford 1 elite player salary in his prime and a supporting core of 25-28 year olds that have not hit there biggest payday yet to support, along with a few low price rookies.
So for the rebuild to work, it needs to achieve the following:
- Can you get a Karlsson replacement that will hit his prime early 20s before the payday and have the same impact?
- Will the young talent we have coming in right now (Chabot, White, Brown) be able to be a supporting core with as good cost-per-point as Duchene, Hoffman, etc
- Will the draft picks we acquire be as good coming in as Chabot, White, Brown etc, are now
- Is there any way to avoid always having at least 1-2 albatross contracts on the team. ie: What are the chances you can build a competitive team on a budget without a) giving long-term contracts, or b) giving long-term contracts but with the risk that a player does not live up to the contract (largely out of your control)
If the rebuild is successful I predict in 5 years we will be back right where we are now. A mid-pack team with 1 superstar or at best 2 really young (pre-bridge deal) superstars and a handful of decent core players, BUT still lacking depth that the team can't afford, still with 1-2 bad contracts handcuffing the budget, and still reliant upon above contract value goaltending to make a run. And finally, still a 1-2 year window even if the pieces are in place because there is no money to "go for it" because then you would be back to trading away core players if the team stumbles and the budget has to be cut.
