Rebuild Thread - thoughts, emotions, ideas

Discussion in 'Ottawa Senators' started by Tuna99, Mar 2, 2018.

View Users: View Users
  1. BonkTastic

    BonkTastic ಠ_ಠ

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2010
    Messages:
    27,399
    Likes Received:
    3,980
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Location:
    Parts Unknown
    Bill Wirtz tried esssentially this in the mid 90's (within the NHL salary structure in that time) in Chicago.

    It caused the early departures of guys like Roenick and Belfour, in favour of guys like Zhamnov and Hackett.

    It...did not turn out well.
     
    Bileur likes this.
  2. Fenix Rises 2026

    Fenix Rises 2026 Alfie forever!

    Joined:
    May 31, 2008
    Messages:
    6,865
    Likes Received:
    305
    Trophy Points:
    124
    Really dug into the vault to shoot me down on that one. Haha.
     
    BonkTastic likes this.
  3. 4thlineduster

    4thlineduster Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2012
    Messages:
    577
    Likes Received:
    204
    Trophy Points:
    61
    I was less than impressed with Ducharme at the WJC. I don’t think he’d help this team in the slightest.
     
  4. DanyHeatley

    DanyHeatley Registered User

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2016
    Messages:
    721
    Likes Received:
    122
    Trophy Points:
    46
    5 year commitment is a lot for an unproven coach :laugh:

    but let’s be honest here, if boucher goes he’ll most likely be replaced by crawford
     
  5. BonkTastic

    BonkTastic ಠ_ಠ

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2010
    Messages:
    27,399
    Likes Received:
    3,980
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Location:
    Parts Unknown
    Nah.

    I'm just old and have a good memory for useless info. :laugh:
     
  6. Wallet Inspector

    Wallet Inspector Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Messages:
    2,338
    Likes Received:
    517
    Trophy Points:
    109
    I am just not sure Karlsson wants to stick around for a rebuild.

    Hoffman-Duchene-Stone
    XXXX-XXXX-Ryan
    Dzingel-Pageau-Chlapik
    Fourth line

    XXXX-Karlsson
    Chabot-Ceci
    Claesson-Jaros

    I guess that's our "skeleton" of the current team going forward. If we do nab Svech or Dahlin it could help a lot, but I just don't know if we can even make the playoffs next year even with one of them, especially if White and Brown take their time making an impact in the NHL.
     
  7. Tuna99

    Tuna99 Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2009
    Messages:
    6,041
    Likes Received:
    804
    Trophy Points:
    109
    Karlsson and Chabot together is elite puck moving from the back end., and moving the puck from your d is always the hardest part of a rebuild.
     
  8. Sens of Anarchy

    Sens of Anarchy Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2013
    Messages:
    27,093
    Likes Received:
    7,247
    Trophy Points:
    156
    I would argue that if we are keeping Karlsson and Hoffman, it's a retool, not a rebuild. To me rebuild ,. is a tear down that would involve Karlsson not being here, and if he's not here , might as well sell high on Hoffman and possibly others within a year. Smith is one of those.
    I would say the same for Duchene except the Sens just gave up a king's ransom to get him. If he is willing, they would resign him. Resign Stone, Keep Pageau, Chabot, Ceci (bridge), Dzingel, Boro, Harpur.
    Ryan - if he can be moved for anything less than a 1st rounder .. or an A prospect do it.
    Remove Gaborik, Burrows what ever it takes.

    If they retool .. they are keeping Karlsson and Hoffman. My gut says they will move EK this spring.. and likely Hoffman within a year.. possibly both at the draft.
     
    Nac Mac Feegle likes this.
  9. Gil Gunderson

    Gil Gunderson Registered User

    Joined:
    May 2, 2007
    Messages:
    19,275
    Likes Received:
    2,210
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Location:
    Ottawa, ON
    Is this the only case where a team wants to force a rebuild while the fanbase doesn’t want it?

    It’s always the opposite.
     
  10. Dave Sparky Allison

    Dave Sparky Allison 2-22-1

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2006
    Messages:
    15,537
    Likes Received:
    2,939
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Location:
    Ottawa
    Will he want to stay if we win the draft lottery? Dahlin, Karlsson and Chabot on the back ends for many years? Sounds good.

    Anyone know when the draft lottery happens?
     
  11. Tuna99

    Tuna99 Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2009
    Messages:
    6,041
    Likes Received:
    804
    Trophy Points:
    109
    My rebuild includes Erik Karlsson
     
  12. coladin

    coladin Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2009
    Messages:
    5,484
    Likes Received:
    485
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Gender:
    Male
    Not realistic. You cannot rebuild with a $11M player
     
  13. Sens of Anarchy

    Sens of Anarchy Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2013
    Messages:
    27,093
    Likes Received:
    7,247
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Last year it was April 29 . So likely near the end of April again
     
    Dave Sparky Allison likes this.
  14. L'Aveuglette

    L'Aveuglette "We're a team"

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2007
    Messages:
    30,498
    Likes Received:
    2,119
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Location:
    Montreal
    I tune out any poster that starts out their plan with an EK trade. Sorry, but unless you are Melnyk himself and trying to save cash is your main factor, you should be keeping Karlsson around for any sort of retooling.
     
  15. L'Aveuglette

    L'Aveuglette "We're a team"

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2007
    Messages:
    30,498
    Likes Received:
    2,119
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Location:
    Montreal
    Crosby, Malkin and Kessel are all making around $9 million each per(cap hit, higher salaries though). Ovechkin and Kuznetsov are making $10m each and they are in first place in their division(and despite playoff failures, it's not a cap thing). Flyers are trending up and have both Voracek and Giroux at $9m+. Ducks have Perry and Getzlaf making around $10m each......it goes on and on.

    A team can absolutely build around one super-elite player at around $11 million. Your bias against EK is weird.
     
  16. NorthCoast

    NorthCoast Registered User

    Joined:
    May 1, 2017
    Messages:
    260
    Likes Received:
    242
    Trophy Points:
    46
    For the sake of semantics.

    Rebuild = without Karlsson
    Retool = with Karlsson

    Can people agree with that. A lot of this thread seems to be going in circles because of that and unless you claim that a team can win a cup without an elite "superstar" player (eventual HOF type players) then you need a rebuild to draft one or a retool to build up better around an existing one. If your plan is to trade EK 1:1 for another elite player than it's still a retool, just with a different elite player.


    If it's a rebuild then you trade pretty much anyone over 25 where you can get value and position yourself for top 3 picks to give yourself the best statistical chance at building a new elite 1-2 player core. Rarely will anyone trade you an already draft top 3 player and I would be wary of picking up any player that was available because likely then we are way overpaying or they saw something in the player that they really didn't like after drafting. And unless you are dealing with Chiarelli, nobody is going to trade you and under 25 elite player. Certainly not without giving your own up in return.

    So a rebuild is getting rid of EK, Hoffman, Duchene and loading up picks for the next couple seasons...and sucking really, really bad.


    I am not advocating any of the above because frankly I see it as a 5 year plan to get back to exactly where we are now. A budget team that can only afford 1 elite player salary in his prime and a supporting core of 25-28 year olds that have not hit there biggest payday yet to support, along with a few low price rookies.

    So for the rebuild to work, it needs to achieve the following:

    - Can you get a Karlsson replacement that will hit his prime early 20s before the payday and have the same impact?
    - Will the young talent we have coming in right now (Chabot, White, Brown) be able to be a supporting core with as good cost-per-point as Duchene, Hoffman, etc
    - Will the draft picks we acquire be as good coming in as Chabot, White, Brown etc, are now
    - Is there any way to avoid always having at least 1-2 albatross contracts on the team. ie: What are the chances you can build a competitive team on a budget without a) giving long-term contracts, or b) giving long-term contracts but with the risk that a player does not live up to the contract (largely out of your control)

    If the rebuild is successful I predict in 5 years we will be back right where we are now. A mid-pack team with 1 superstar or at best 2 really young (pre-bridge deal) superstars and a handful of decent core players, BUT still lacking depth that the team can't afford, still with 1-2 bad contracts handcuffing the budget, and still reliant upon above contract value goaltending to make a run. And finally, still a 1-2 year window even if the pieces are in place because there is no money to "go for it" because then you would be back to trading away core players if the team stumbles and the budget has to be cut.
     
    Sens of Anarchy likes this.
  17. Sens of Anarchy

    Sens of Anarchy Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2013
    Messages:
    27,093
    Likes Received:
    7,247
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Exactly... SO is this a REBUILD thread or a RETOOL thread... Perhaps those not wanting to look at a future without EK should start a RETOOL thread... Both are real possibilities .. Both should be looked at.
     
  18. Cosmix

    Cosmix Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2011
    Messages:
    5,910
    Likes Received:
    541
    Trophy Points:
    109
    Location:
    Ottawa
    I can imagine it due to contracts and that makes me unhappy. Trading Smith should be doable. Trading Ryan, Burrows and Gaborik looks impossible without adding aspartame.
     
  19. Sens of Anarchy

    Sens of Anarchy Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2013
    Messages:
    27,093
    Likes Received:
    7,247
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Don't underestimate Dorion's ability to trade them all...

    1st + Burrows for a 5th
    top 10 1st + Ryan for a 7th
    Logan Brown + Gaborik for a 5th

    just sayin' :laugh:
     
    Cosmix likes this.
  20. Cosmix

    Cosmix Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2011
    Messages:
    5,910
    Likes Received:
    541
    Trophy Points:
    109
    Location:
    Ottawa
    Yeah, I could see him doing something dense like that.
     
    Sens of Anarchy likes this.
  21. thinkwild

    thinkwild Veni Vidi Toga

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2003
    Messages:
    8,879
    Likes Received:
    172
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Location:
    Ottawa
    I always interpreted a retool as saying we are going to take a shortcut.

    Mika for Brassard and Turris for Duchene was pretty much a retool wasnt it? Trading away Fisher and Kelly was kind of a retool i guess but i think of that as more a
    natural selling off of ufa's as is required when you are old, expensive and in the basement of the standings.

    If we are a bad team and we retool we arent probably going to improve to contender status from it in a short time frame.

    When the Sens first came back, the "build" was supposed to take 7-11 years. I guess a rebuild starting now could knock off a few years since we get a few years of good draft picks all at once. But i still think this idea of a quick 3 yr rebuild is a fairy tale. I think we should call it a 5-7 year rebuild to be honest and thats assuming everything goes right.
     
  22. MoreGore

    MoreGore Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2005
    Messages:
    2,769
    Likes Received:
    53
    Trophy Points:
    101
    Location:
    Ottawa
    The Sens have no future with Melnyk because he trades hockey assets for cash and you simply can't build a winning hockey team with that strategy. You can try to save money, but when you are obviously trading assets for cash that takes it to a whole different level.

    When I see hockey trades and a concerted effort to ice a competitive team, I will come back. Until then, my Mays and Junes are going to be watching the Blue and White again.
     
  23. otown

    otown Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2009
    Messages:
    638
    Likes Received:
    46
    Trophy Points:
    51
    My fear is that the Sens rebuild/retool will be impacted by the Habs taking a page from the "How to Tank" book that the Leafs wrote when they picked up Mathews.
    The Habs are shutting everyone down!
     
  24. danielpalfredsson

    danielpalfredsson is too old for sens drama

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2013
    Messages:
    11,386
    Likes Received:
    3,299
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Occupation:
    not a schmohawk
    What I think will happen is that we'll try to rebuild around a core of Duchene, Stone, Chabot, Brown, White, Gustavsson, and whoever we get this year with what is shaping up to be a probably top 5 pick. Then we have prospects like Formenton, Batherson, Chlapik, Jaros, who all could possibly "graduate" to being seen as core players pending their development.

    I think we'll see Karlsson traded in the summer, most likely at the draft, but maybe after July 1st. We'll bundle Ryan with him, and the Gaborik contract will eventually go away one way or another whether by him retiring, or simply the contract expiring in 3 years.

    I would predict that everything is going to be about 3 years from now, so anybody who can't help us 3 years from now due to being a UFA before then (Hoffman, Smith, maybe Ceci) will be dealt for futures when the right offer comes along. I don't think this team is tanking at any point, but I think they are okay with the idea that they might not make the playoffs for another few seasons based on these choices. The intention I think will be to create a blank canvas by moving all the dead money and loading up on picks+prospects in order to try and build a team the "right" way around the players mentioned above.

    I don't think Dorion thinks he can remain competitive with Melnyk's budget, the dead salary we have on the books, and Karlsson making as much as 12.5M, so instead he is going to use a Karlsson trade to kick off of a rebuild. It's terrible that this team is actually in a position where it might be smarter to trade a franchise player away because of all the dead money on the books combined with the team budget, but regardless of how the situation makes us feel, that's the position we're in. That's why Karlsson is gonna be moved, and if there is any hope in this hockey world, hope that Dorion at least does a Karlsson trade right and it puts us in a good position to try and have a few cracks at contending 3-5 years from now.
     
  25. Pocket Dog

    Pocket Dog Registered User

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2017
    Messages:
    1,322
    Likes Received:
    516
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Location:
    Japan
    A silver lining to a 5-7 year rebuild would be Melnyk could not support that financially and would be out but I don't think it would take that long. Also depends how you set the parameters of what constitutes a successful rebuild. If the idea of a successful rebuild is consistently making the playoffs and no more of this ''one year good one year'' bad stuff, then 3 years is not ridiculous. If it's challenging for a cup, then probably a little longer but could be closer to 5 unless the team finds some luck in the lottery.

    The teams that have been spinning their tires for years like Edmonton and Buffalo, even though they have superstars on their rosters have 2 things in common: they've had incompetent management and they've tried to will their way into the playoffs without addressing their areas of weakness.

    Incompetent management is obviously a worry with Ottawa, as the owner is getting more and more involved to compensate for the staff cuts and the GM has next to no support from experienced hockey people. Dorian probably won't have that support the entire time he's GM.

    What separates Ottawa from those teams imo, is the ability to have a lot of promising pieces quickly. If/when EK is traded in the summer, then that rebuilding process can start. There are good pieces already in the system and whatever comes back from an EK trade (cmon Vegas) should give the team a jump start on their plans. If the Sens are so lucky to draft Dahlin and EK is gone the best thing the Sens can do is commit to the youth and don't throw cash on 7 year contracts to wingers that don't fit that plan (Lucic, Eriksson and Okposo). A bright spot for this organization has been it's ability to draft, so personally I'd have the expectation that the team could be ''rebuilt'' in 3ish years time(if the plan is clear).
     

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "358c248ada348a047a4b9bb27a146148"