Realistically, What Can Morgan Rielly Become at this Point?

Apotheosis

Registered User
Mar 27, 2014
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Toronto, Ontario
Relative to what?

Explain how 36 points for anybody is positive or negative, on a bad team. Or compared to other teams.

It's relative to the quality of teammates he had around him and a tough defensive team full of veterans. The Leafs were not playing run and gun in Babs first year. They didn't have the talent too, yet Rielly still put up 36 pts with no PP time.
 

Mr Hockey

Toronto
May 11, 2017
11,156
3,662
It's relative to the quality of teammates he had around him and a tough defensive team full of veterans. The Leafs were not playing run and gun in Babs first year. They didn't have the talent too, yet Rielly still put up 36 pts with no PP time.

Rielly actually averaged 1:50 of PP TOI in Babcock's first year and :58 in Babcock's second year.
 

meefer

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Jun 9, 2015
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Whatever else one sees in Rielly's game, I don't think one can argue his passion to help the Leafs, on and off the ice. He was hampered by playing under Carlyle's team of mediocre talent, unstructured and 'leaderless' and yet always gave his all. His first season under Babcock and a tanking team and his efforts never wavered. Babcock's desire for Morgan to grow his defensive awareness was embraced while being partnered with less than stellar talent. Even when twinned with Zaitsev - the best of his regular partners - Zaitsev was a rookie and on a steep learning curve - Rielly displayed a common trait amongst young dmen, a desire to do too much. This often led to being out of position while trying to help his partner, to over committing, to basically doing the things that some here use to marginalize his potential. Though a small sample size, I'd counter this approach with the evidence of what Rielly produces when coupled with above average partners and forwards. During his time with the Canadian U20s, his efforts at the WCs and last fall's NA Team, Morgan has performed admirably, if not more so. I believe we saw continuing evidence of what he is capable of during the latter part of last season. The team around him was more disciplined, his teammates more talented and confident than at any time in his career as a Leaf, the goaltending had solidified, his ankle problems solved...and he began to shine, as he had when playing on better teams. If Hainsey proves to be a good partner with Morgan, at least better than those who he has partnered with in the past, coupled with the better talent around him and his own growing maturity as a defenseman, I believe 17/18 will be the season we see Morgan Rielly emerge as a capable, perhaps even very solid 1st pairing defenseman in the NHL. I'll go so far as to say, and this really exposes the fanboy in me, that if Rielly does make that jump, he deserves a good deal of consideration for the captaincy of the team. IMO, the kid bleeds blue.
 

PromisedLand

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Dec 3, 2016
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Mo was pretty good in the season we tanked to get Matthews.

Last season he wasn't as good (high ankle sprain?) but then there were 9 rookies on the roster AND bozak+jvr (defensive game is :facepalm: worthy).

This season is the season that will really tell us what Mo can be. To me he is still a question mark. I am still not too sure what to expect of Mo yet....
 

LeafGrief

Shambles in my brain
Apr 10, 2015
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He's got game breaking ability and there were plenty of games last year where he was our best defenseman, even one or two where he was our best player. So if he can put together the consistency that we crave, he's got the tools to be a top pairing guy, maybe even a real #1. But if he doesn't put it all together, then he's currently a very good 2nd pairing guy.

I think he's going to put it together. We've had a lot of turnover on this team the last few years, so even though he's one of the longest tenured Leafs at this point, we forget that he's still very young. He's got upside for days and defensemen take a long time to put it all together.
 

Sypher04

Registered User
Jan 20, 2011
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Nope.

In Babcock's first year, Rielly put up 36 points on a Leafs team that finished 3rd worst in scoring.

How did he do it if his offensive skill set is sub-par in all respects?

A year where no one on the entire roster had more than 45 points (Kadri).

EDIT: just looking now, but interesting to note that Rielly's powerplay time THIS year was under a minute per game. Kinda mind boggling.
 
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dzombs

Registered User
Jul 8, 2016
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the guy is going to be a winner. he's not going anywhere and he will raise a cup with us
 

mapleleaf979

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Jan 14, 2012
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Toronto, Ontario
Rielly actually averaged 1:50 of PP TOI in Babcock's first year and :58 in Babcock's second year.

There was no Zaitsev. But the above is very telling of what the Leafs think of him.

Did u see the World Cup of Hockey before the season started? Something stuck with me in one game. Rielly was on the left point on the PP and the high man on PK backed right off Rielly, gave him a ton of ice to skate into and blast a shot or force guys to come at him to open up a pass for someone else. Rielly was either confused at this or lacked confidence and panicked/forced a pass. Yes this is one play that was glaring but this is just more support to Rielly's IQ. Rielly has not gotten better in 4 years here. Babcock is too smart of a man to think Rielly can be a shut down d-man, could be advertising to move him. I do not think Rielly plays like a leader, he is far to passive to often.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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Interesting how identical Mo and Jake have been offensively the last 2yrs:

Rielly: 2992:04estoi (0.98pts/60) --- 223:32pptoi (3.49pts/60)
Jake: 2948:56estoi (0.98pts/60) --- 392:03pptoi (3.82pts/60)

Though to be fair to Mo, his ES minutes came against much tougher competition than jake's, so that's even more impressive. And we're not even factoring in age there yet.
 

mapleleaf979

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Jan 14, 2012
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Interesting how identical Mo and Jake have been offensively the last 2yrs:

Rielly: 2992:04estoi (0.98pts/60) --- 223:32pptoi (3.49pts/60)
Jake: 2948:56estoi (0.98pts/60) --- 392:03pptoi (3.82pts/60)

Though to be fair to Mo, his ES minutes came against much tougher competition than jake's, so that's even more impressive. And we're not even factoring in age there yet.

If the Leafs can find a way to get Jake Gardiner to be the playoff Jake Gardiner, then that gap will grow.

There is no doubt, Gardiner is the most dangerous Leaf with the puck. He is so calm, the opposing team panics makes a move before he does. Washington had trouble reading him. Against Boston 4 yrs ago, he was outstanding. Gardiner is not always 100% mentally engaged, Id say thats his knock but when he does his hockey IQ is clearly higher than Rielly's.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
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eh, Riells was awesome in the playoffs too, and outscored Jake - in no small part because zaitsev's injury gave Mo his PP time back, and he capitalized on it.
 

FreeBird

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Dec 18, 2005
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Orr or Coffey

Is what he could be if he could rush end to end, but it will never happen no way Babcock allows his D's to do that.
 

Ziggdiezan

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Apr 10, 2015
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If the Leafs can find a way to get Jake Gardiner to be the playoff Jake Gardiner, then that gap will grow.

There is no doubt, Gardiner is the most dangerous Leaf with the puck. He is so calm, the opposing team panics makes a move before he does. Washington had trouble reading him. Against Boston 4 yrs ago, he was outstanding. Gardiner is not always 100% mentally engaged, Id say thats his knock but when he does his hockey IQ is clearly higher than Rielly's.

This is my only concern with Rielly becoming a bonafide number 1 defender. I really don't think he has the hockey IQ (or the shot really) to become a dominant number 1.

I still think he ends up a good top pairing defender who will be signed to an absolute steal of a contract in a year or two.
 

Ziggdiezan

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Apr 10, 2015
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eh, Riells was awesome in the playoffs too, and outscored Jake - in no small part because zaitsev's injury gave Mo his PP time back, and he capitalized on it.

Jake had the much tougher matchups didn't he?

Morgan Rielly has always been touted as an offensively focused defensemen. Think Babcock made a bit of a mistake when trying to see if he could be a shutdown defender. That wasn't and will never be Rielly's strength.
 

zeke

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Mar 14, 2005
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Jake had the much tougher matchups didn't he?

Morgan Rielly has always been touted as an offensively focused defensemen. Think Babcock made a bit of a mistake when trying to see if he could be a shutdown defender. That wasn't and will never be Rielly's strength.

Except by all the important metrics, Rielly fared as well or better under those elite tough usage minutes as the other elite tough usage dmen in the league - vlasic, keith, etc.
 

Ziggdiezan

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Apr 10, 2015
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Except by all the important metrics, Rielly fared as well or better under those elite tough usage minutes as the other elite tough usage dmen in the league - vlasic, keith, etc.

Really, can you post some links? Alot of the shot suppression stats I saw show MR below those defensemen by a decent amount. He obviously had very hard matchups and is still young. Curious, as so many of these advanced stats from different sites seem to contradict each other.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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Eh my go-to site is down for the summer. I laid all the numbers out last year.

To sum - all the other elite-competition usage dmen (Vlasic-Braun, Keith-Hjalmar, Alzner, Pietro-Bouw, etc) had similar or worse adjusted possesion numbers.
 

Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
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Well the saying is you don't know what you have in a defenseman until he's played 300 games, he's now at 312.
 

43Kadri43

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Jun 15, 2017
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Really, can you post some links? Alot of the shot suppression stats I saw show MR below those defensemen by a decent amount. He obviously had very hard matchups and is still young. Curious, as so many of these advanced stats from different sites seem to contradict each other.

This site will let you filter for competition level: http://puckiq.com/search

It's not as comprehensive as Corsica with respect to the available metrics, but Star Percentage is the best measure of QoC currently available in my opinion (and is only available for viewing on puckIQ as far as I know).
 

lifelonghockeyfan

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Dec 18, 2015
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He might become the Leafs best defenceman which will drive proponents of these foolish rating systems #1,2 etc crazy.
He might settle in to being the 40th best Dman in the league, Gardiner the 50th, Zaitsev the 60th.
So the Leafs defence might be quite adequate without having stud Dman, which so many think so necessary for a team to be successful.
Gee, the Pens won the Cup last year with a average defensemen .
 

Lightsol

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
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Probably an ideal #3 defensemen is the best you can hope for at this point.

Hockey i.q will be his undoing, because the physical traits are there for dominance.

Congratulations, somehow you have mistaken Morgan Rielly for Jake Gardiner and likely, vice versa.

Gardiner is not always 100% mentally engaged, Id say thats his knock but when he does his hockey IQ is clearly higher than Rielly's.

The problem is, Gardiner is the defensive version of James Van Riemsdyk; everyone wows over his period flashes of "ability", but 80% of the time he waffles between so-so and TERRIBLE. And he costs the Leafs late in games with insane plays way too much for my liking. I still say there'll come a time when Gardiner costs the Leafs a playoff series and Leaf fans turn on him.

Of course, Carl Gunnarsson was one of the principle suspects in costing the Leafs game 7 against Boston, and somehow he managed to DODGE all responsibility for his inability to clear a ****ing defesnive zone, so who knows... Maybe once again, there'll be people trying to explain why it's Hated Player X's fault, not Gardiner's...
 
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mapleleaf979

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Jan 14, 2012
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The problem is, Gardiner is the defensive version of James Van Riemsdyk; everyone wows over his period flashes of "ability", but 80% of the time he waffles between so-so and TERRIBLE. And he costs the Leafs late in games with insane plays way too much for my liking. I still say there'll come a time when Gardiner costs the Leafs a playoff series and Leaf fans turn on him.

.

Dermott has Top 4 potential. So in my eyes, Gardiner or Reilly will be gone before 2 years is up. Gardiner makes 4.05 million right now and his contract is up after the 2018-19 season. He will command a raise. Dermott will want to get paid too if things go as planned. Gardiner is more valuble to the Leafs right now over Rielly. They would love for Rielly to be a bargain at 5 million but his average hockey IQ and big drops in confidence hurt him. Zaitsev should be better this year too and a cap friendly price. Maybe a veteran like Hainsey can help pick Rielly up. Im not sure Rielly has more ceiling left. The bottom pairing cant have alot of money spent on it with the trio of forwards who will command big money. Something will happen. If one of the forwards are moved out, its Nylander.
 

Lightsol

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Aug 2, 2005
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Gardiner makes 4.05 million right now and his contract is up after the 2018-19 season. He will command a raise.

My reaction is: GOOD-BYE, Jake! Don't let the door hit you on the way out!

Gardiner is more valuble to the Leafs right now over Rielly.

The return of Carl Gunnarsson syndrome!
 

Camshaft77

Registered User
Jan 3, 2005
272
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Ontario
I don't get why some people are down on Rielly. He will be an excellent top 2 defender and he plays with moxy. He just needs a skilled partner who is stay at home to bring out the best in him. He has too much ability to write him off at this point.

I am conident he will be excellent this year, if not feel free to quote this and bash it.
 

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