Realistically, What Can Morgan Rielly Become at this Point?

[LeafsNation149]

Riellys going to breakout so hard this year.

Can't wait to see the apes change their opinions from Rielly sucks to Rielly is a beast.

Going to be what happened with Gardiner all over again.

 

[Jozay]

Riellys going to breakout so hard this year.

Can't wait to see the apes change their opinions from Rielly sucks to Rielly is a beast.

Going to be what happened with Gardiner all over again.

the apes?

 

[LeafsNation149]

the apes?

The baboons, the monkeys

 

[LeafFever]

He was fantastic in the playoffs. He can be a #1.

 

[7even]

There was a really interesting analysis of Rielly posted a month or two ago on a site that now escapes me. Believe it was breaking down his performance re: creating and denying zone entries. Would be eternally grateful if someone knows what I'm talking about and would be kind enough to link it.

Here it is: https://www.google.com/amp/s/cerebr...ro-data-to-identify-offensive-defensemen/amp/

TL;DR: Rielly's ability to carry the puck into the zone compares favourably to Seth Jones and Jaccob Slavin. The author demonstrates a relationship between this ability and 5v5 production, and classifies Rielly as an "emerging star" amongst offensive defensemen.

There's been much effort into moulding Rielly into a player who can be impactful at both ends of the rink. I think such a player is more valuable than a Jake Gardiner type, who impacts the game defensively solely by proxy, by virtue of being more versatile. Whether Morgan can achieve that? I'm less optimistic at this point, but am confident he can at least be a better version of Jake Gardiner. Somewhat one dimensional top pairing defenseman with an emphasis on neutral zone control.

 

[stickty111]

Skating: elite, but only people writing long essays say it isnt
Vision: great, same as first point
Stick handling: terrific, same as other points
Rielly is what Rielly is. A great #2 who is likely to be a #1. Than again people rhyming with word clue dont like facts.

 

[Diddy]

Rielly is better than Duncan Keith at age 22.

Rielly can become a 50 point #1 two-way all around dman.

I'm sure lots of players were better than Keith at 22 and never became full fledged#1s. Development isn't linear. Being better than someone at a certain age doesn't mean much imo (unless comparing two elite players like Crosby & mcdavids 20 YO season)
With that said, he could be a #1 but I don't think he'll be one. I see him as a 2/3

 

[Polaris1010]

Nope.

In Babcock's first year, Rielly put up 36 points on a Leafs team that finished 3rd worst in scoring.

How did he do it if his offensive skill set is sub-par in all respects?

Relative to what?

Explain how 36 points for anybody is positive or negative, on a bad team. Or compared to other teams.

 

[7even]

Relative to what?

Explain how 36 points for anybody is positive or negative, on a bad team. Or compared to other teams.

Rielly's 36pts in 2016 was good enough for 35th in scoring amongst NHL defensemen. I belive the value of that is self-evident.

 

[Polaris1010]

Rielly's 36pts in 2016 was good enough for 35th in scoring amongst NHL defensemen. I belive the value of that is self-evident.

Explain what is that self-evident of?

That he could be a top 4 defenseman?

To me, that is kind of meaningless. The Maple Leafs don't have anyone else at the moment going into training camp, other than Zaitsev, Gardiner, Hainsey, Rielly, and they have to be the top 2 pairings.

The depth chart is probably order too.

 

[LeafChief]

HOFer

 

[PuckMagi]

He looked great in the world championships.

He hasn't looked amazing the last two years because he's being asked to play a shutdown role and he was a bit injured last year. Playing the shutdown role the last two seasons I think is good for his development. However, he should be used as an offensive weapon going forward, ideally with a competent partner who can focus more on the defensive aspect. Rielly is at his best when he stakes up the ice with great power.

 

[Anthrax442]

By 25 he will be an ace

 

[egd27]

I think he will be an slightly above average 2nd pairing dman.

I will of course get a lot of haters who will attack me on these points but I really really do not see Rielly as someone particularly talented in terms of skill and I especially do not see a defensive IQ on this kid. Babcock can drum him up all he wants but I don't know how much credence I give to our coach's ability to judge real talent ...........

Ok...bring on the haters.

So having a differing opinion than you makes one a "hater" ? How special.

 

[DitchMarner]

TL;DR: Rielly's ability to carry the puck into the zone compares favourably to Seth Jones and Jaccob Slavin. The author demonstrates a relationship between this ability and 5v5 production, and classifies Rielly as an "emerging star" amongst offensive defensemen.

Sounds like I knew what I was talking about...

 

[TMLegend]

Probably an ideal #3 defensemen is the best you can hope for at this point.

Hockey i.q will be his undoing, because the physical traits are there for dominance.

 

[ponder]

I think he has a reasonable shot to become a quality 1D, along the lines of Letang.

 

[Advanced stats]

I'm extremely confident Rielly will be a top 20 defenseman in the NHL.

 

[Morbo]

He's still young enough to take a major step forward. Let's hope it's soon, because "decent top 4 offensive-minded dman" isn't ideal for 5th overall. We need this guy to be a top pair you can trust in any situation. More of a dominant player than he's shown so far.

He needs to be used in more favourable matchups this year so he can put up more points and make use of his strengths.

 

[7even]

Explain what is that self-evident of?

That he could be a top 4 defenseman?

To me, that is kind of meaningless. The Maple Leafs don't have anyone else at the moment going into training camp, other than Zaitsev, Gardiner, Hainsey, Rielly, and they have to be the top 2 pairings.

The depth chart is probably order too.

Points are...points? If you have a defenseman (who isn't TJ Brennan defensively, which Rielly isn't) with that level of ability, anything you can get on top of that is value added.

 

[43Kadri43]

I think he will be an slightly above average 2nd pairing dman. Besides his straightaway speed there is nothing that he shows he is above average in.

1. Passing - not a lot of vision...he can distribute ok if not under pressure...but not threading a needle (saucer pass, through legs and sticks, hail Mary players out of our zone to streaking forwards)

2. Shot - not much to speak of - well below average slap shot...in fact I don't remember any goals he has scored on a slap shot; his shot working the point mostly consists of flicking the puck in hopes of it hitting some legs or getting deflected in by accident. I don't know how you become a labeled "offensive" dman without a slap shot. Almost every top scoring dman in the NHL has some kind of slap shot (Karlsson, Subban, Weber, Suter, Keith, Josi, Doughty, Giordano, OEL) all have some semblance of an ability to one time it or get a good slap shot at the net.

3. Skating - decent in a straight line but he is no powerhouse. When skating with the puck however he mostly skates himself to the side where he usually gets squeezed out or he is about to be checked so he throws it blindly in the slot in hopes of someone getting to it.

4. Stick handling -- below average..in fact it is one of his weak points. He will never fool anybody with his stick handling-- mostly just pushes the puck forward and a few 2 feet back and forth movements. That play where he beat 2 Oilers including a toe drag and then roofed it is like a one time deal...besides that rush I have never ever seen him fool anybody with stick work.

5. Defensive play? His poor habits of lunging at the puck trying to break up a play results in many odd man rushes for the other team. He is not aware of how to close gaps or when to be aggressive in the puck retrieval process. His worse habits by far have to do with puck watching in his own zone and not taking out the main in front of the net. I have given many examples of this in the past; I have counted at least 5 games where he was caught like a bystander watching the puck being passed around and the guy right beside him will score totally untouched. This guy will never be a defensive minded d man. I believe if you can't master this simple important task by the time you are in the league 4 years...you just don't have the right mindset.

The problem is Zaistsev I believe is just a right handed version of Rielly with a slightly better slap shot. Other than that, he is exactly what Rielly is - slightly above average offense; good straight away speed with no real puck moving skills; extremely poor at defending his zone in front of the net; no ability to hammer the puck at the net.

Virtually all of this can be objectively disproven.

His passing metrics are elite. He's league-average at defending the line, decent at defending the crease, and great at both zone entries and zone exits. He's also elite at recovering loose pucks (because he's an elite skater), and elite at driving possession. He's also one of only 12 defensemen in the league to play 40+% of their ES ice-time against elite competition (42%, tied for 6th in the NHL). Of those 12, Rielly was one of 5 to post a positive RelCompCF% (tied for 3rd at 0.6).

Rielly and Zaitsev are not similar. Zaitsev, in nearly identical usage, produced dreadful NZ data, passing metrics, and WOWY's.

Rielly, right now, is a 2/3, and I think (given his absurdly difficult usage and fantastic micro-metrics) he'll establish himself as a high-end #2/low-end #1.

 

[Covenant]

What you see is what you get, a top four, second pairing dman who hopefully improves from last year.

 

[zeke]

Virtually all of this can be objectively disproven.

His passing metrics are elite. He's league-average at defending the line, decent at defending the crease, and great at both zone entries and zone exits. He's also elite at recovering loose pucks (because he's an elite skater), and elite at driving possession. He's also one of only 12 defensemen in the league to play 40+% of their ES ice-time against elite competition (42%, tied for 6th in the NHL). Of those 12, Rielly was one of 5 to post a positive RelCompCF% (tied for 3rd at 0.6).

Rielly and Zaitsev are not similar. Zaitsev, in nearly identical usage, produced dreadful NZ data, passing metrics, and WOWY's.

Rielly, right now, is a 2/3, and I think (given his absurdly difficult usage and fantastic micro-metrics) he'll establish himself as a high-end #2/low-end #1.

yep.

all the important stats are clear on how good he is - already a good top-pair all situations tough matchups dman.

unfortunately, all people care about is points and plus/minus.

 

[mapleleaf979]

He obviously didn't have his best season ever.

I'm a Rielly fan and I think he still has a lot of potential. It's a question of what type of player he can/will become.

It's obvious Babcock's tried to mold him into a more complete or even defense-oriented player, and the results so far aren't too encouraging, although he's still young and at an age where he can be expected to continue improving.


I think his puck-handling and moving skills are somewhat underrated. People talk about his speed and it's an obvious strength of his. But in the two seasons prior to his most recent one, there were numerous times where he quite impressed me with his poise with the puck and ability to make plays (especially in the offensive zone).


I think that at the very least, he can be a very good puck-moving defenseman who can play in the top four of a good team. I'm not sure he can or will be a legitimate top-two defenseman on a team that doesn't have a true number one.

U echo everything the media says. How does Rielly have so much potential?

Leaf fans are blind, im a Leaf fan but not blind. Rielly does not have HIGH END HOCKEY IQ. That is not coachable. This puts on a ceiling on him. Its been 4 years and he is the same guy now when he was a rookie. Great skater and puck carrier with space, without space he differs. Lacks confidence too often, IQ limits his upside. Gardiner in the playoffs showed the most poise and was the only D-man Washington feared. Gardiner is not always 100% engaged mentally that is a sure thing, but Gardiner is the most un-predictable, un-readable Leafs Dman. The #1 offensive D man they have, Rielly is over-rated in this city.

 

[GLOO]

U echo everything the media says. How does Rielly have so much potential?

Leaf fans are blind, im a Leaf fan but not blind. Rielly does not have HIGH END HOCKEY IQ. That is not coachable. This puts on a ceiling on him. Its been 4 years and he is the same guy now when he was a rookie. Great skater and puck carrier with space, without space he differs. Lacks confidence too often, IQ limits his upside. Gardiner in the playoffs showed the most poise and was the only D-man Washington feared. Gardiner is not always 100% engaged mentally that is a sure thing, but Gardiner is the most un-predictable, un-readable Leafs Dman. The #1 offensive D man they have, Rielly is over-rated in this city.

Bang on when you said great skater --WHEN HE HAS SPACE, WITHOUT SPACE HE DIFFERS. He almost always manages to skate himself into an area that is easy to smother him (rub him out on the boards). He isn't balanced or strong enough to stay on his skates once he is pushed; he is not smart enough to make good pass to an open man...if he did it's usually by luck and mot of his passes get deflected, intercepted or miss the mark. That is usually followed up by the puck going the other way. Why does he get points one post asks me? He doesn't get that many points!!!! For a so called offensive defenseman who gets top minutes he is just middle of the pack in everything (goals,assists, points). That is fine since he is not getting drew doughty money....but his defensive play is so bad that it more than nullifies his slightly above average offensive stats. I can live with a 30 point defense man making 5 million, but when he is such a liability on defence, I really don't see the point of locking him so long at such a salary. And for Babcock to see him as a shut down player????? What body of work did Rielly ever show to label him as such a player?? He was always labelled a top offensive dman with a strong need to improve his defensive game. I think he is a so so offensive player in the nhl with a huge glaring deficiency in defensive IQ. His gap control is poor, he doesn't know where to go in his own end -( often seen chasing the puck around like kid looking for candy), and he never takes out the man in front of the net because he is puck watching.

Here is a very detailed article (from PensionPuppets last year in Jan 2016) citing how the author has a real legitimate concern about Rielly's defensive struggles:

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/...concerned-about-morgan-riellys-defensive-play

In this article, it mentions how the media and fans blamed Matt Hunwick for Rielly's poor defensive stats. But the author went on to show these following pieces of info:

1. When Rielly was away from Hunwick, his shots allowed stats were the same -- there goes that excuse.

2. The shots Rielly were allowing were all in close in the slot - the dangerous zone where quality scoring chances are. This is most likely because Rielly's awareness around him is low because he is mesmerized by the puck zipping around the zone (like he is in a trance)

3. Rielly's partners...all had better shot suppression stats in the very same zone but on their side of the ice

4. The Leafs, as a team, allowed an EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH VOLUME OF SHOTS FROM IN CLOSE when Rielly is on the ice

5. His young age is not an excuse -- the author shows the stats of other highly touted defencemen at the same age and they had strong positive shot stats versus Rielly's negative shot stats. The only person worse was Zack Bogosian :

Player Season Age GP PTS CA/60 Rel Tm
Erik Karlsson 2011-12 21 81 78 -4.5
Alex Pietrangelo 2010-11 21 79 43 -4.3
Drew Doughty 2010-11 21 76 40 -3.8
Kris Letang 2008-09 21 74 33 -3.4
P.K. Subban 2010-11 21 77 38 -3.3
Erik Johnson 2009-10 21 79 39 -2.6
John Carlson 2010-11 21 82 37 -1.9
Marc-Edouard Vlasic 2008-09 21 82 36 -1.1
Justin Faulk 2013-14 21 76 32 -0.5
Michael Del Zotto 2011-12 21 77 41 -0.4
Jake Gardiner 2011-12 21 75 30 2.3
Morgan Rielly 2015-16 21 51 23 4.7
Zach Bogosian 2011-12 21 65 30 5.1


Again, I do not understand why Rielly is put in the limelight as a number one pairing shut down d man. I said it early last year and it took the entire season for people to finally admit that maybe this experiment is not working. Other's keep making the lame argument about playing tough minutes. Well if it is that tough and you are constantly allowing the goals in...wouldn't other people have equally bad plus minus? Wouldn't other defencemen have terrible possession and shot suppression stats in the league??? No they don't - because they are better defensive d men.

Babcock had better get his head straightened out and start shielding Rielly and the Leafs from the top lines. If Babcock thinks he can suddenly turn this guy into a shut down player then show that!! Teach him how to play defense!! Tell him to wake up and stop following the puck around and take care of the players around his goalie. Otherwise, give him 16 minutes and put him on the 2nd pairing or 3rd pairing.