Rate the 2019 offseason

[Frk It]

Won a cup? Like 13 years. But they were competitive cup contenders for years well prior to that.

Let's say the 2023 Red Wings roster is something like this + add a couple free signings most likely as well:

Bertuzzi - Larkin - Mantha
Zadina - 2022 top 5 pick -AA
Rasmussen - Veleno - 2021 top 5 pick

McIssac - Hronek
Cholowski- Seider
2020 top 5 pick - ???

Please explain to me how that's still a bad team without the large percentage of their current top prospects/young players being complete busts? If Veleno, Zadina, Seider, Hronek, etc end up as quality players the team will be competitive well prior to 2025. If they are busts, the team won't be competitive until at least 2025 and (like I said) that means this current rebuild is ****ed because those guys make up the bulk of the future of this team.

We’ve been rebuilding for 3 years and are yet to get a top 5 pick, but we are due for 3 top 5 picks in a row...????

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

I thought it would have been foolish for the Wings to overpay for UFAs or RFAs. Next year with expiring contracts...then their will be real money to spend on players you want and players who want to play in Detroit.

Yzeman's job this year isn't necessarily to put a competitive team on the ice, it's to get the right people in the front office, the scouts and the coaches in AHL and NHL up to his standard.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Comparing our offseason this year to the Rangers is a little unfair. It's more like if in ~2013 we traded Dats, Z, Franzen, Kronwall etc for picks in 2014-2016, won one of those lotteries and went after Tavares etc like Toronto did. Instead we let those guys age out, stayed competitive for longer and waited until the rebuild started on its own. I'm not sure I'd advocate for moving players like Z and Dats that have such sentimental value, but if you were looking for the fastest rebuild like the Rangers are doing that was the time to do it.

Our options now are pretty much to just be patient, stockpile picks, draft well, and hope for lottery luck. Which is what we're getting.

 

[obey86]

Not really, by 2025:
Larkin will be 27, in his prime.
Mantha and Athanasiou will be 29, veterans, may be moved out by then.
Bertuzzi will be 28, similar boat as AA and Mantha.

So our success will be more contingent on these guys.
Hronek and Cholowski (26)
Seider (23)
Zadina, Veleno, and McIsaac (24)
Rasmussen (25)
Plus 2020-2022 first round picks.

It's totally reasonable to expect a team lead by in his prime Larkin, one or two of veterans AA, Mantha, and Bertuzzi, then the young guys listed to take a while to actually be competitive. Turning over our current roster is only the first step, getting these guys experience is the real long part of the rebuild. Rebuilds only get rushed like Toronto when you get incredibly lucky and get multiple exceptional talents who are top line players right away. Toronto has really shifted how people view a rebuild in a very optimistic way. In reality it's usually harder than that.

I completely disagree. If players like Hronek, Cholowski, Zadina, Veleno etc are going to be core pieces moving forward we're going to see that in the next 2-3 years and the Red Wings will be a much better team at that point because of it (even if they aren't quite in their "prime" years by that point) - not a complete bottom feeder like they are now.

And if players like Hronek, Cholowski, etc AREN'T going to be core pieces, we will also likely know in 2-3 years, and if that's the case this current rebuild isn't a good rebuild at all and we will have to start over - likely prolonging the competitive window well past 2025.

TLDR: The Wings will either be competitive well before 2025, or it will be much later than 2025 because the current to prospects/young guys didn't work out as intended.

 

[obey86]

We’ve been rebuilding for 3 years and are yet to get a top 5 pick, but we are due for 3 top 5 picks in a row...????

Ignore the top 5 part, I just chose a number to show we are getting premium picks in that time span - should have used ~ I guess. Change it to top 5-10 if you want, my point doesn't change.

Anyways, if this guy think we aren't going to be competitive until 2025, we are going to have a heck of a lot of shots at top 5 premium picks.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Won a cup? Like 13 years. But they were competitive cup contenders for years well prior to that.

Let's say the 2023 Red Wings roster is something like this + add a couple free signings most likely as well:

Bertuzzi - Larkin - Mantha
Zadina - 2022 top 5 pick -AA
Rasmussen - Veleno - 2021 top 5 pick

McIssac - Hronek
Cholowski- Seider
2020 top 5 pick - ???

Please explain to me how that's still a bad team without the large percentage of their current top prospects/young players being complete busts? If Veleno, Zadina, Seider, Hronek, etc end up as quality players the team will be competitive well prior to 2025. If they are busts, the team won't be competitive until at least 2025 and (like I said) that means this current rebuild is ****ed because those guys make up the bulk of the future of this team.

well first off I would say in 2023 the 2022 pick wont be with the DRW more than likely unless its Mcdavid 2.0. Furthermore the 2021 pick may not either(ie like Zadina) and if he is it will be as a bit player not a major contributor.

Yes I suspect in 2023 the DRW will be more "competitive" but we wont be challenging for a cup, we just wont be an awful team.

I mean stamkos is 29, kucherov is 26, point is 23, hedman is 28, vasilvesky is 25, mcdonaugh is 30, Johnson is 28, kilorn is 30.

Its gonna take some time till we both have a stamkos, point, kucherov and hedman and then they are all 23-29 years of age

 

[Ulysses31]

should have/still should get gardiner, our next l. murphy wiĺl age like wine

 

[Frk It]

Ignore the top 5 part, I just chose a number to show we are getting premium picks in that time span - should have used ~ I guess. Change it to top 5-10 if you want, my point doesn't change.

Anyways, if this guy think we aren't going to be competitive until 2025, we are going to have a heck of a lot of shots at top 5 premium picks.

We draft Lafreniere-Byfield (#1 or 2) next year; and I like what we are working with a lot.

Alternatively if draft 6-9 again next year, it changes our timeline quite a bit.

Unfortunately this whole thing is very contingent on where we draft on a year by year basis.

 

[obey86]

well first off I would say in 2023 the 2022 pick wont be with the DRW more than likely unless its Mcdavid 2.0. Furthermore the 2021 pick may not either(ie like Zadina) and if he is it will be as a bit player not a major contributor.

Yes I suspect in 2023 the DRW will be more "competitive" but we wont be challenging for a cup, we just wont be an awful team.

I mean stamkos is 29, kucherov is 26, point is 23, hedman is 28, vasilvesky is 25, mcdonaugh is 30, Johnson is 26, kilorn is 30.

Its gonna take some time till we both have a stamkos, point, kucherov and hedman and then they are all 23-29 years of age

Rasmussen and Larkin both made the NHL roster in their 2nd season after the draft. Zadina could very well make it this season. Why would it be unrealistic for another Wings 1st rounder to do the same unless they are McDavid?

I think you confusing rebuilding and growing into a cup contender. They are two different things.

The original post I responded to said "Realistically, I think we need to consider the rebuild starting in earnest last year, with a 5-6 year window moving forward." That to me, means we are REBUILDING for 5-6 more years, as in finishing among the worst teams in the league for 5-6 more years. I consider rebuilding, and growing/maturing with current roster players from a competitive/bubble team to a cup contender as two completely distinct parts of a team's growth.

For example. I would not consider the 16-17 Leafs cup contenders, but I also wouldn't consider them as a rebuilding team anymore because they weren't expecting top draft picks moving forward and they were competing for the playoffs (they were the 8th seed this year), even if no one was expecting them to really compete for the cup that year. They were a bubble team and barely made the playoffs but were no longer expecting top draft picks moving forward. That's how I see the 2022/2023 Red Wings, barring (as I mentioned) the group of Veleno, Zadina, etc largely being huge busts.

 

[Pavels Dog]

If the timeline for the Red Wings being competitive again is 2025, this rebuild is ****ed.

If the Wings aren't good until 2025, it means that a large portion of the following occurred: *AA/Mantha/Bertuzzi/Larkin regressed
*The prospect group of Hronek/Cholowski/McIssac/Zadina/Rasmussen/Seider/Veleno/Berggren/Lindstrom were largely huge busts.
*Whoever they drafted in the ~top 5 in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 were largely busts

I think there's some underestimation of what can happen to a team when multiple skilled players are inserted at the same time. The first two years Leafs made the playoffs (16-17 and 17-18) they didn't even have a 70 point player. And they were actually even a better team in 17-18 than they were in 18-19 (when they had 4 players above 70 points and one above 90).
Adding a truly elite player (or even two) would be awesome, but the simple act of adding more skill to the lineup will do wonders for our overall ability to win games. Just think of how much more dangerous our PP can look with Zadina and Hronek instead of Kronwall and Frk.

 

[Frk It]

View attachment 243185

I think this little demon has potential to add real value to our draft haul.

Is that Johansson? Because I really liked that pick as well. Just saying usually the success of a draft is determined by the first pick or two. Stevie has certainly made exceptions to that, though.

 

[NotLeddy]

Is that Johansson? Because I really liked that pick as well. Just saying usually the success of a draft is determined by the first pick or two. Stevie has certainly made exceptions to that, though.

That is Grewe

 

[Winger98]

I think we can be a competitive team before 2025 but that's about when we have to hope to be legitimate Cup contenders. That means, I expect this to be a club that finishes routinely in the teens in a couple of years, but it remains how far they'll move out of that.

 

[RabidBadger]

Is that Johansson? Because I really liked that pick as well. Just saying usually the success of a draft is determined by the first pick or two. Stevie has certainly made exceptions to that, though.

Grewe. If he becomes Bert 2.0 and the first 2 guys hit, then this draft is looking realgud.

I share enthusiasm about Johansson. It's making our blueline prospect depth real interesting.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

C+ The offseason has been appropriately uneventful for the most part. I have no major issues with the draft class (actually like much of it) and am supportive of the Seider pick (especially when you consider what the 2020 class has to offer). The UFA signings are fine given their terms. Nemeth is actually a very savvy signing and a good fit considering the composition of our defensive core (now and into the near future).

Sure I would have liked to be in on the Marleau and Trouba deals, but it does take two to tango (and I am not moving 6th overall for Trouba given his contract status). We aren't entitled to be included in deals no matter how much we want to. Oh, and lets not kid ourselves, Gorton was playing an entirely different hand than Stevie this summer. You don't need to be Scotty Bowman to see that.

I chuckle at the impatience with the rebuilding process that is starting to shine through around here. If rebuilding was easy, we would have done it all ready.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

I keep seeing this narrative about the lack of patience already by fans with rebuilding and yet, nobody has said that at all.

Trading cap space for a pick is not rushing a rebuild

Taking advantage via trade of another teams cap crunch is not rushing the rebuild

Rushing the rebuild is exclusively reserved to trading AWAY high picks or top prospects for 27 year olds. It is signing bobrovosky and duchene/panarin.

Unless people are saying that, lets cut away from this narrative of people already tired of rebuilding please and thankyou.

 

[InjuredChoker]

C, maybe closer to D. dunno about the draft since i didn't watch these kids a lot, later picks seem fine. FA was decent though didn't like the 2 yr deals. wanted to take advantage of cap space we had.

 

[obey86]

It's fine, C+. Just wish we had weaponized our cap space a bit and instead of signing Filppula to a 2 year deal, signed a younger player like Marcus Johansson or something instead.

 

[Bench]

I think we can be a competitive team before 2025 but that's about when we have to hope to be legitimate Cup contenders. That means, I expect this to be a club that finishes routinely in the teens in a couple of years, but it remains how far they'll move out of that.

That's the crux of it. The roster could easily move out of the bottom 10 in a few seasons, but whether that completely stalls the final touches on the rebuild and puts us into the gooey "good not great" area for longer than we'd like... well, that's the fear.

A generational draft pick changes everything. A massive trade changes everything. I still hold firm 2025 is the target and not at all a sign of failure. It's only a failure if the team is still swimming in the bottom 5 at that time. Alex Pietrangelo was drafted in 2008. I'm sure Blues fans would have been less than thrilled if you told them it would take 11 years of roster moves from that date to get to the Cup finals, but the reality is without landing a game changer like Crosby or Kane, you're going to have to be patient.

 

[TatarTangle]

Yzerman came out and said people need to be patient. Many Red Wing fans -and fans in general- are not this.

I give it an 'A' based on he didn't hand out any silly long-term contracts that will handcuff the franchise and ultimately set himself up to spend big down the road when a) bad contracts come off the payroll in immediate future seasons and b) they are much more of an attractive option for UFAs.

 

[Bondurant]

C

Yzerman didn't work miracles but I wasn't expecting miracles. There was complaints of not trading down in the draft for Seider but I have yet to hear about potential dance partners. Would have been awesome to land Trouba but he may not fit in with Yzerman's plans just yet. I'm sure there was room for some improvements but I think he did fine with the cards he was dealt.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

An A would have involved landing Trouba and getting him signed for 7 or 8x7.5 (eminently reasonable top pair D salary)
A B would have involved landing Subban (more expensive, older, and more injured than Trouba, but still a top pairing guy.) or Colin Miller (cheaper, but not as good)

C is where they land, because they made a bunch of moves that were fine. Nothing good or bad about them. You don't get an A or B for not ****ing up. They made safe moves which could pay dividends, but it's kind of like they left some big move on the table. They also didn't **** up, so I can't put them lower than this.

D would have been if they gave out a Helm like deal to someone. A bit too much money for a bit too long.

E/F would have been a repeat of 2012 or 2016 FA periods where they wasted money like it was going out of style on multiple ill-conceived contracts.

 

[Frk It]

An A would have involved landing Trouba and getting him signed for 7 or 8x7.5 (eminently reasonable top pair D salary)
A B would have involved landing Subban (more expensive, older, and more injured than Trouba, but still a top pairing guy.) or Colin Miller (cheaper, but not as good)

C is where they land, because they made a bunch of moves that were fine. Nothing good or bad about them. You don't get an A or B for not ****ing up. They made safe moves which could pay dividends, but it's kind of like they left some big move on the table. They also didn't **** up, so I can't put them lower than this.

D would have been if they gave out a Helm like deal to someone. A bit too much money for a bit too long.

E/F would have been a repeat of 2012 or 2016 FA periods where they wasted money like it was going out of style on multiple ill-conceived contracts.

Don't you think our off-seasons should mostly determined by our drafts at this point?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Don't you think our off-seasons should mostly determined by our drafts at this point?

In the year of the draft, it's crazy to assign a grade to it. Like in my opinion most of those guys are such a crapshoot that it's not worth "grading" how they did because you literally have no idea.

You'll know the prospect and their profile, but guys with stellar profiles flop all the time and underwhelming prospects come out of nowhere all the time.

And also, the Wings draft kinda just seems okay to me.

People are coming around on Seider
People don't like Tuomisto at 35
People liked Mastrosimone at 54
People are okay Johannson at 60
People liked Grewe at 66 but he's also kinda eh.
And then after Grewe, I'm not putting any hope/prayers on 4th or later picks.

Like there isn't anything that in year 1 I'm over the moon about because I have no idea at all about how these guys will transfer to higher leagues.

But basically, there is nothing in year one that was a huge **** up or a home run. You can be excited about Seider, but he has a while and a lot of things to prove before he's a home run.

 

[Frk It]

In the year of the draft, it's crazy to assign a grade to it. Like in my opinion most of those guys are such a crapshoot that it's not worth "grading" how they did because you literally have no idea.

You'll know the prospect and their profile, but guys with stellar profiles flop all the time and underwhelming prospects come out of nowhere all the time.

And also, the Wings draft kinda just seems okay to me.

People are coming around on Seider
People don't like Tuomisto at 35
People liked Mastrosimone at 54
People are okay Johannson at 60
People liked Grewe at 66 but he's also kinda eh.
And then after Grewe, I'm not putting any hope/prayers on 4th or later picks.

Like there isn't anything that in year 1 I'm over the moon about because I have no idea at all about how these guys will transfer to higher leagues.

But basically, there is nothing in year one that was a huge **** up or a home run. You can be excited about Seider, but he has a while and a lot of things to prove before he's a home run.

I agree with a lot of what you say here, and I didn't ask you to come up with a grade for the draft.

I just think that as a re-building team, whether each off-season is a success/failure is mostly going to come down to drafting well or not.

2017 off-season will come down to what we get out of Rasmussen/Lindstrom
2018 off-season will come down to what we get out of Zadina/Veleno/McIsaac/etc
2019 off-season will come down to what we get out of Seider/Tuomisto/others