Player Discussion Rasmus Ristolainen

[Doug Prishpreed]

I assume that meant if Ristolainen gets what he wants, he will be top 15. According to this link, Klingberg's $4.25m cap hit is tied for 60th among defensemen. Vatanen's $4.875m is 47th. $5m would put him tied at 40th. $5.5m would put him tied with many players at 24th. $5.75m tied with many at 18th. $6m would tie Mike Green, Erik Johnson and Boychuk at 14th. $6.5m ties 11th with Karlsson and Pietrangelo.

This is a great summary...give him $5.5 for 6 years and be done with it. If either side of unwilling to do $5.5 they're being unreasonable in my book. Now if there are other contract lengths on the table, that gets more complicated.

 

[Ace]

If Risto was the only one I'd be more worried...but there are a bunch of rfas waiting. The market has started paying obscene money after elcs in some cases, cases Risto, Lindholm and Gaudreau consider themselves. But they have no leverege. Murray has to play hardball now because he can't in 2 years when Jack takes a ton and Sam gets a good piece too. You fight the battle now. It's the right one to pick. Hell Okposo signed as a ufa with a great resume and all the options in the world for 6 per...how much does Risto ask for with zero Leverage? Murray is surely using the Jones and Reilly contracts as comparable. There's only a small window between the two numbers.

 

[Paxon]

This is a great summary...give him $5.5 for 6 years and be done with it. If either side of unwilling to do $5.5 they're being unreasonable in my book. Now if there are other contract lengths on the table, that gets more complicated.

I should note that the table I used was for this season's cap hits, so deals that kick in next season, such as Ekblad's $7.5m hit, aren't included. Also you have to weigh UFA vs. RFA years, when deals were signed, etc. I agree that $5.5 seems fine given the situation.

 

[Jacob582]

Latest on Hampus Lindholm

Lindholm is hoping to re-sign with the Ducks for at least $6MM per year. However, it has also been revealed that he is looking for the maximum eight years as well. This puts Anaheim in a tough situation. They would like to sign the 22-year-old defenseman long-term, but at a cap hit closer to $5MM annually.

 

[1972]

Hampus Lindholm is already worth more then 5 per, why would he sign long term for that price.

 

[Myllz]

Ducks are a budget team, so their negotiations with Lindholm are going to be a little tougher.

 

[brian_griffin]

Gatting caught up here, from back a few days / pages.

Every time I read posts with opinions stated as facts, and Corsi arguments, and debates about linemates and matchups and pairings, I get a little jingle in my head...

Facts are simple and facts are straight
Facts are lazy and facts are late
Facts all come with points of view
Facts don't do what I want them to
Facts just twist the truth around
Facts are living turned inside out
Facts are getting the best of them
...

I'm still waiting...I'm still waiting...I'm still waiting...

 

[Revelate]

GMTM not feeling the analytics criticisms. essentially saying anyone else on our team would likely have worse numbers in the same situation. pointed to competition, role, etc.

 

[Aladyyn]

I have no idea why some people expect Risto not to be the best paid defenseman on this team.

 

[ThunderD]

I have no idea why some people expect Risto not to be the best paid defenseman on this team.

Who do you mean by "some people"? We have no idea what Murray is really offering or not offering. If Risto signs for $5.5m/yr I don't think anyone around here would have a problem with that. It would certainly be more than Bogo who is at $5.14m/yr.

 

[CrazyPsycho]

How much did risto smile after that ****show?

 

[randomhockeyfan]

How much did risto smile after that ****show?

I think he's running the other way now.

 

[Man of Principles]

Murray needs to give the guy at least 6 mil a year over 6 years and be done with it. Don't want this to.be a distraction to start the year. Seriously doubting it'll come to that...but I'm a big fan of the guy and he deserves big money. I don't think any of us will have any complaints about his contract in a couple years when he's a top 10 defenseman in the league.

I personally am not highly educated on analytics and usually sit those conversations out. I do know that he has the ability to take over a game offensively from the blue line. We saw it last year. Thinking back, I believe it was against Vancouver that he scored a sick goal as time was expiring.

I also happen to think that he can develop into the power play qb many of us think we are lacking. The guy is so well-rounded and can create a lot of scoring chances. Now to get him to bring that level of play for a full season. Dude looked tired for the last quarter of the season.

 

[Murky]

I can understand why Murray isn't in a hurry to make Risto one of the 15 highest paid D in the league.

I think that is a fair point. However, there is a huge cluster of players around 5M a year. In 6 years let alone 8 that cluster will likely have been moved up and Risto might be the 124th highest paid D.

Deals always look higher at the time of the signing.

Of course we don't know how cap will change so this is just speculation based on history, but I don't think it is unreasonable assumption to expect it to go up.

 

[Heraldic]

Let's not forget that Risto has 5 RFA years ahead of him instead of 4. That should have a big impact considering how the prices of UFA years are rising opposed to RFA years.

Considering Ekblad's contract I think the biggest question is that did they value the UFA years so high that it ultimately led into such a high cap hit. Or did they value the RFA years pretty high as well.

Like I have said, I do stand behind Murray on this about hi, being tough. I don't think that a figure of 4,5 is a proper one, but I want him to get as low as possible (especially Risto having 5 RFA years). If we end up giving big money to Risto, it is pretty impossible to get Jack and Sam to get anywhere near team friendly contracts. But if Risto gets a team friendly contract, it is easier to try to get them under those kind of contracts.

 

[Lempo]

With the Ekblad contract there was that though that it came on the tails of Barkov signing a very team friendly six year paper. There was the matter of UFA years obviously but it's still kind of stingy if you choose to leave money on the table to help the team to build itself competitively, and then the next guy in line comes and empties the bank.

There was talk though that the six years was Barkov's demand and FLA would have liked to go with eight with him too, but still, the optics do matter. How will Risto want to price himself?

 

[Der Jaeger]

Let's not forget that Risto has 5 RFA years ahead of him instead of 4. That should have a big impact considering how the prices of UFA years are rising opposed to RFA years.

Considering Ekblad's contract I think the biggest question is that did they value the UFA years so high that it ultimately led into such a high cap hit. Or did they value the RFA years pretty high as well.

Like I have said, I do stand behind Murray on this about hi, being tough. I don't think that a figure of 4,5 is a proper one, but I want him to get as low as possible (especially Risto having 5 RFA years). If we end up giving big money to Risto, it is pretty impossible to get Jack and Sam to get anywhere near team friendly contracts. But if Risto gets a team friendly contract, it is easier to try to get them under those kind of contracts.

Why are we thinking GMTM needs to play hardball with Risto for the sake of Reinhart and Eichel?

Buffalo has $17.225M coming off the books before Reinhart and Eichel need contracts (Gionta, Kane, Gorges, Franson) and Moulson soon after with another $5m. I think GMTM can go big on Risto if he wants and be fine.

Does he really have 5 RFA years? Thought he used 3 with 4 left.

 

[Heraldic]

Why are we thinking GMTM needs to play hardball with Risto for the sake of Reinhart and Eichel?

Buffalo has $17.225M coming off the books before Reinhart and Eichel need contracts (Gionta, Kane, Gorges, Franson) and Moulson soon after with another $5m. I think GMTM can go big on Risto if he wants and be fine.

Does he really have 5 RFA years? Thought he used 3 with 4 left.

If you listened Murray's latest on WGR, you noticed how he emphasized having depth (and it wasn't the first time he has done that).

If you want to create depth, you need to avoid giving bad contracts AND you need to squeeze as much as possible out of RFA years. The problem is not that we're not able to sign Jack/Sam. The problem is, that if we just sign them whatever they ever want, without using the leverage of RFA years, we are really soon under the situation where we have no cap space for depth.

If we give Ekblad money to Risto, for example, there is absolutely no way of asking Eichel/Reinhart to accept something other than top money. But if you get at least one big gun under at least somehow team friendly contract, you will have easier time getting the others. Just like Yzerman had Hedman after Stamkos.

And regarding Risto's RFA years, yes, he has 5 RFA years left (his first year didn't count as an accrued season).

 

[brian_griffin]

Do you think Murray is offering one deal, or two options?
Anyone think the following reasonable in terms of setting options:

Year $ / %
RFA1 3 / 261%
RFA2 3.5 / 17%
RFA3 4 / 14%
RFA4 4.5 / 13%
RFA5 5 / 11%
UFA1 7 / 40%
UFA2 7.5 / 7%
UFA3 7.5 / 0%

5 year deal Buy no UFA years, AAV = 4
6 year deal Buy 1 UFA years, AAV = 4.5
7 year deal Buy 2 UFA years, AAV = 4.9
8 year deal Buy 3 UFA years, AAV = 5.25

 

[Heraldic]

Do you think Murray is offering one deal, or two options?
Anyone think the following reasonable in terms of setting options:

Year $ / %
RFA1 3 / 261%
RFA2 3.5 / 17%
RFA3 4 / 14%
RFA4 4.5 / 13%
RFA5 5 / 11%
UFA1 7 / 40%
UFA2 7.5 / 7%
UFA3 7.5 / 0%

5 year deal Buy no UFA years, AAV = 4
6 year deal Buy 1 UFA years, AAV = 4.5
7 year deal Buy 2 UFA years, AAV = 4.9
8 year deal Buy 3 UFA years, AAV = 5.25

I remember at some point Murray talking about them (both sides) looking for a long term contract. Now Murray took a bit steps back and said that they're open for short term, bridge or long term contract.

I think that the more UFA years you include, the price will rise a bit sharper than that. With 7 years contract it is likely around 5,5, and with 8 years around 6.

Subban had two pretty solid seasons under him after his second contract (almost 40 points in each), and the AAV was only $2,875,000. It was a bit time ago, but it still IMO highlights the difference of prices between RFA and UFA years.

It's pretty hard to figure out at this point what they're looking for and ending up with. I hope as long term as possible, but still keeping the price a bit under 6 million cap hit wise.

 

[Murky]

Well it's speculated that Risto could be doing this to put pressure on the GM via the media and fans, which seems to be working. Everyone's all "OMG, he's playing with the team even though he doesn't have to, what a guy, what a team player! Pay him!" TM's like "you can play but this changes nothing."

So I don't think it makes him sound like an a-hole at all, he's simply maintaining his stance in the face of Risto's agent's strategy to get him to cave.

It is all well to speculate. However, the situation is that Risto is skating with the team without a contract. We don't know the reasons, but it might as well be that he just wants to improve as a very young player, still.

Jones' 5,4M must be the floor though. Someone suggested Risto is a 3-4M guy still - no he isn't and not by a longshot. I realize people want a low deal for the team's sake, but let's not get carried away, here.

Having a #1 at 6M is a luxury. At this point it involves little risk for the Sabres, as having a good #2 at 6M is not terrible either. And Risto's odds of becoming a league wide TOP10 is much better than being a #2 in a team.

 

[hizzoner]

Give him an 8 year deal at 6.5 if that will do it. Or 9 years at 7. If that won't do it then we are back to a bridge deal 4 years at 4.25.........

 

[Heraldic]

Jones' 5,4M must be the floor though. Someone suggested Risto is a 3-4M guy still - no he isn't and not by a longshot. I realize people want a low deal for the team's sake, but let's not get carried away, here.

It depends on the term.

Was Subban less than 3 million guy during his second contract? Or was Giroux 3,75 million guy after his close to 80 point season? Of course they weren't, but they had to settle for that money for that term and contract that ate only RFA years without any possibility for arbitration.

 

[JOVIS*]

Jones' 5,4M must be the floor though. Someone suggested Risto is a 3-4M guy still - no he isn't and not by a longshot. I realize people want a low deal for the team's sake, but let's not get carried away, here.

Having a #1 at 6M is a luxury. At this point it involves little risk for the Sabres, as having a good #2 at 6M is not terrible either. And Risto's odds of becoming a league wide TOP10 is much better than being a #2 in a team.

I actually think this would be the ceiling, and one Murray does not want to hit.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

Let's not forget that Risto has 5 RFA years ahead of him instead of 4. That should have a big impact considering how the prices of UFA years are rising opposed to RFA years.

Considering Ekblad's contract I think the biggest question is that did they value the UFA years so high that it ultimately led into such a high cap hit. Or did they value the RFA years pretty high as well.

Like I have said, I do stand behind Murray on this about hi, being tough. I don't think that a figure of 4,5 is a proper one, but I want him to get as low as possible (especially Risto having 5 RFA years). If we end up giving big money to Risto, it is pretty impossible to get Jack and Sam to get anywhere near team friendly contracts. But if Risto gets a team friendly contract, it is easier to try to get them under those kind of contracts.

This is why I don't understand all the talk of a 6 year deal. Why give him a contract that basically takes him right to UFA?
Maybe it's just the Buffalo fan in me that worries about players running as soon as they get the chance. But I still don't see why you'd want to give a guy a contract that buys up almost no UFA years.