Rankings of best on best rosters, right now

[ForumNamePending]

Top 10:
I'm pretty sure that NHL has already agreed to join the 2022 & 2026 Olympics.

The league and PA have an agreement/understanding with each other, but things still need to be hammered out with the IOC.

 

[RorschachWJK]

1.Canada
2.USA
3.Finland
4.Russia
5.Czechia
6.Switzerland
7.Germany
8.Slovakia
9.Denmark
10.Latvia
...
195.St.Lucia
196.Barbados
197.Mordor
198.Neverneverland
199.Antarctida
200.Sweden

Pretty clear now

I think you're gravely underestimating team Mordor here. I hear they have several lines comprised of the new Uruk-hai now. Those guys are truly terrifying blademasters on and off the ice. Also brutally effective at the physical aspect of the game (hint: read Enki Bilal's comic book Gods in Chaos / A Bedlam of Immortals and pay attention to the ice hockey team from Bratislava. Uruk-hai are even better)

 

[czechmate]

WJC medal rates are starting to show that it's Canada-US in tier 1. Would agree Canada still has a small edge, but we really didn't have a best-on-best in a while at this level so I'm playing it safe. Canada is producing at replacement rate, US is producing over replacement rate.

Czechs have been in tier 2 for a long time, however, they are clearly trending towards tier 3 while Germany is improving rapidly.

While the Czech seems to be showing some better talent coming (at least at a replacement rate to stabilize them in tier 3), if one nation reaches tier 2 at some point in the next 10 years it's Germany (way over replacement).

I could have formed a tier for Slovaks, Latvia and Denmark I guess.

What Germany does, Austrians often do, I expect Austrian to start a climb towards that Slovak-Latvia-Denmark tier.

I never claimed this, all I said is they are within the same standard of deviation in terms of talent production right now. It doesn't mean that Czechs are not ahead by a fair margin, just less than 1 standard of deviation.

So, if the Czechs are trending towards "tier 3" and Germany is moving up to "tier 2" within the next 10 years, you are basically saying that Germany is going to overtake Czech hockey very soon. You can't expect to be taken seriously on HFBoards if you make such a ridiculous statement without backing it up sufficiently with facts that demonstrate the probability of that event happening.

To me, the likelihood of the Czechs returning to the top 5 within the next 10 years is by far higher than the likelihood of Germany overtaking the Czechs as a hockey nation in the same time period.

No disrespect to the Germans; I applaud their efforts, wish them all the best and see that they have huge potential in the long run, but who do they have to match the following forward group right now (or within the next 10 years)?

David Pastrňák - David Krejčí - Ondřej Palát
Jakub Vrána - Tomáš Hertl - Dominik Kubalík
Jakub Voráček - Martin Nečas - Pavel Zacha
Filip Zadina - Radek Faksa - Filip Chytil

 

[SoundAndFury]

Yeah country has a run of quality prospects and people just expect it's going to continue like that forever from now on, regardless of background factors. Denmark was an example before, now Germany is the new supposed future giant.

It's not even the first time in Germany's case: Sturm, Hecht, Seidenberg, Goc, Ehrhoff, Greiss were pretty much same generation as well. And it had no continuation whatsoever for the next 10 years.

 

[Czechboy]

So, if the Czechs are trending towards "tier 3" and Germany is moving up to "tier 2" within the next 10 years, you are basically saying that Germany is going to overtake Czech hockey very soon. You can't expect to be taken seriously on HFBoards if you make such a ridiculous statement without backing it up sufficiently with facts that demonstrate the probability of that event happening.

To me, the likelihood of the Czechs returning to the top 5 within the next 10 years is by far higher than the likelihood of Germany overtaking the Czechs as a hockey nation in the same time period.

No disrespect to the Germans; I applaud their efforts, wish them all the best and see that they have huge potential in the long run, but who do they have to match the following forward group right now (or within the next 10 years)?

David Pastrňák - David Krejčí - Ondřej Palát
Jakub Vrána - Tomáš Hertl - Dominik Kubalík
Jakub Voráček - Martin Nečas - Pavel Zacha
Filip Zadina - Radek Faksa - Filip Chytil

Just wait till the reply let's you know that the 'data' shows this not to be true... good luck getting the 'data' though. The only I think I know for sure about the 'data' is that it is conclusive!

FTR.. I'm totally with you and hope Germany does become a big 5 nation... I want a big 10! Hockey is way too small and nothing would make me happier than Czechs and Slovaks getting it back to a big 7 and then the Swiss, Germans, Danish, Belarus and Latvian players to all make it a big 10 to 12.

Eg. I'm really excited about this upcoming world's because it will be close and even and the quarters should be 4 really good games!

 

[SOLR]

Just wait till the reply let's you know that the 'data' shows this not to be true... good luck getting the 'data' though. The only I think I know for sure about the 'data' is that it is conclusive!

FTR.. I'm totally with you and hope Germany does become a big 5 nation... I want a big 10! Hockey is way too small and nothing would make me happier than Czechs and Slovaks getting it back to a big 7 and then the Swiss, Germans, Danish, Belarus and Latvian players to all make it a big 10 to 12.

Eg. I'm really excited about this upcoming world's because it will be close and even and the quarters should be 4 really good games!

I agree.

 

[SOLR]

So, if the Czechs are trending towards "tier 3" and Germany is moving up to "tier 2" within the next 10 years, you are basically saying that Germany is going to overtake Czech hockey very soon. You can't expect to be taken seriously on HFBoards if you make such a ridiculous statement without backing it up sufficiently with facts that demonstrate the probability of that event happening.

I guess I come from a Canadian perspective where we've seen this train coming from the US for 20 years, as you should from the Germans.

Claiming X statement is ridiculous or attacking the reputation of others just makes for terrible childish arguments, you can do better.

 

[SOLR]

Yeah country has a run of quality prospects and people just expect it's going to continue like that forever from now on, regardless of background factors. Denmark was an example before, now Germany is the new supposed future giant.

It's not even the first time in Germany's case: Sturm, Hecht, Seidenberg, Goc, Ehrhoff, Greiss were pretty much same generation as well. And it had no continuation whatsoever for the next 10 years.

That's true. Talent development comes in waves, it's true for all countries.

The reason why I think it's different this time for Germany is that resources have moved to create US-like structures that have proven to work (promoting talented kids faster in the pros)

One can already say that the Drai-Stutlze generation will be vastly superior to the previous wave, 2 first liners to 0. Ehrhoff was probably the best Germans in that crop. The new crop is at least 1 standard of deviation better already, and if you look at prospects for 2021-2024, there are many more underway (Hanelt, Lutz etc.)

Some literature:

1. Leon and the kids: Inside Germany's desire to join hockey's elite
2. IIHF - Special season for German juniors

 

[SOLR]

Pivonka and Hejduk now play for the States. Svoboda and Stastny played for Canada in Canada Cups. Nedved played for Canada at the Olympics. Stastny's kids play for the US.

Serious question.. how much do Czechs make in salary? How much do Germans? I know the Germans make 2 or 3 more than us (according to you) so what do we make and what do they make? Are you saying DEL players triple Extraliga players in salary? What are the salaries? Do Czechs make 100K a year while Germans make 300k?

I had to look to see who these higher paid players are.. here is the top 10 in DEL scoring... who you got making more than an AHL salary?

View attachment 434552

I was talking about the generic economic power of Germany, not talking about the player's salary, this isn't really relevant in the grand scheme (because it's all about development for the NHL where salaries explode)
Fully aware that hockey wise Extraligua-DEL there's not a big difference, but that's not the talent we are discussing here. We are talking about NHL talent.

The 2-3x I was talking about was more of a measurement of opportunities for already rich NHLers coming back to Europe (this is how kids move countries). Parents want to give their kids a better future in a richer country, and per capita Germany is about 25% richer.

Germany vs. Czech Republic - economy comparison

 

[SoundAndFury]

That's true. Talent development comes in waves, it's true for all countries.

So if you acknowledge all that, how are Czechs supposed to be sinking to the 3rd tier?

 

[SOLR]

So if you acknowledge all that, how are Czechs supposed to be sinking to the 3rd tier?

Because it's been 20 years of continuous decline? The trend ain't good and if you can't acknowledge that, I mean there is not much to discuss. Slovakia is facing the same decline. So there is a regional decline (that I'm sad to see, I'm from Quebec City, I was born watching the Stastny brothers...). I'm going to guess that Football has become slightly more popular regionally as the 2 countries came out of the political upheaval of the 80s to join western Europe a bit more (one theory I have).

 

[SoundAndFury]

Because it's been 20 years of continuous decline? The trend ain't good and if you can't acknowledge that, I mean there is not much to discuss

Can't put it any better than this poster did:

Five years ago I could see an argument being made that the Czech Rep was trending towards hockey's "third or fourth tier" or whatever, but now? Not too long ago the core of a full strength Czech team would have been old... really old, and there didn't seem to be a whole lot of talent coming up to replace it, but currently, at least at forward, things look pretty solid, and the only guy who could be considered ancient is Krecji.

You choose to ignore the facts that don't fit your narrative. As in the whole young generation of Czech players led by Pasta and Necas. So Germany's talent develops in waves but Czech waves mean nothing. Mkay.

Just for sake of numbers, the Czechs have 11 U25 NHL players who played at least 10 games, Germany has 1. You were the one talking about how the Czechs need depth to develop elite players while completely ignoring Germany has almost no depth whatsoever below their elite players. The whole argument from your side is just some completely trivial conjecture based on German economic power, evidently.

And yes, ALL the former east block countries suffered a major setback at the end of the 20th century, Czechs and Slovaks definitely included. But you base everything on assumption, that they will stay there forever despite still having strong systems at the grassroots level while countries like Germany will just make giant leaps because they in theory have the money to do so.

And it's no coincidence financial and political stability meant Czechs are resurging, Slovaks are about to have their best generation since forever in 2022 draft, Belarus is stronger than ever, Kazakhstan managed to come back to elite division at WJC level.. If you were perceptive enough to notice "20 years of continuous decline" maybe it's not the time to put the head in the sign when all the signs point to that decline ending. Especially when there are fairly obvious background factors that caused it.

 

[Czechboy]

I was talking about the generic economic power of Germany, not talking about the player's salary, this isn't really relevant in the grand scheme (because it's all about development for the NHL where salaries explode)
Fully aware that hockey wise Extraligua-DEL there's not a big difference, but that's not the talent we are discussing here. We are talking about NHL talent.

The 2-3x I was talking about was more of a measurement of opportunities for already rich NHLers coming back to Europe (this is how kids move countries). Parents want to give their kids a better future in a richer country, and per capita Germany is about 25% richer.

Germany vs. Czech Republic - economy comparison

I didn't click on your link because this is a hockey board. I don't disagree the Germans have a better economy than us. Did anyone? Is this the Forbes comment section?

Ftr... So does great Britain, Italy, Norway and Denmark. I'm not expecting to lose to them at the world's or next year's Olympics. Austria also has a better economy than us and are also direct neighbors. Plus Rossi was higher rated than Mysak!

It makes me wonder if Germany has a better economy than Canada? You should look it up... Maybe Canada is headed for second tier while Germans are headed for first!

 

[SoundAndFury]

I already anticipate there being quite a lot of hilarity post-2022 draft, especially if all 3 Slovak top prospects go in the 1st round, and there being a new wave of preachers how it's actually Slovakia that will soon retake positions and make it top-7 of hockey again and so on. Can see it already.

 

[czechmate]

I guess I come from a Canadian perspective where we've seen this train coming from the US for 20 years, as you should from the Germans.

Claiming X statement is ridiculous or attacking the reputation of others just makes for terrible childish arguments, you can do better.

Well, I'm sorry that you took it personally - that wasn't my intention (personally, I don't see any of the above in my previous response). I was purely pointing out that to me, such a bold statement requires more elaboration on your part in order for others to understand where you are coming from.

Let's assume I would say that Canada would cease to be the strongest hockey nation in the world, without any facts or information backing up that claim, wouldn't that sound ridiculous to you? Now you regard it as 'childish' if someone makes you aware of the bold nature of your claim?

It was you who brought forward the bold claim that Germany will overtake the Czechs within 10 years time. I'm open minded and willing to discuss that topic with you. Let me know what hockey data you base your claim on, ultimately leading to the conclusion above.

 

[Czechboy]

I already anticipate there being quite a lot of hilarity post-2022 draft, especially if all 3 Slovak top prospects go in the 1st round, and there being a new wave of preachers how it's actually Slovakia that will soon retake positions and make it top-7 of hockey again and so on. Can see it already.

I really hope all 3 go in first round and become NHL stars... Slovakia needs a few good bounces! A lot of their best players are bearing the end of their careers. Chara, sekera, halak...

 

[Czechboy]

we've seen this train coming from the US for 20 years

Which train? What has the last 20 years of US hockey shown us?

 

[Czechboy]

Can't put it any better than this poster did:

You choose to ignore the facts that don't fit your narrative. As in the whole young generation of Czech players led by Pasta and Necas. So Germany's talent develops in waves but Czech waves mean nothing. Mkay.

Just for sake of numbers, the Czechs have 11 U25 NHL players who played at least 10 games, Germany has 1. You were the one talking about how the Czechs need depth to develop elite players while completely ignoring Germany has almost no depth whatsoever below their elite players. The whole argument from your side is just some completely trivial conjecture based on German economic power, evidently.

And yes, ALL the former east block countries suffered a major setback at the end of the 20th century, Czechs and Slovaks definitely included. But you base everything on assumption, that they will stay there forever despite still having strong systems at the grassroots level while countries like Germany will just make giant leaps because they in theory have the money to do so.

And it's no coincidence financial and political stability meant Czechs are resurging, Slovaks are about to have their best generation since forever in 2022 draft, Belarus is stronger than ever, Kazakhstan managed to come back to elite division at WJC level.. If you were perceptive enough to notice "20 years of continuous decline" maybe it's not the time to put the head in the sign when all the signs point to that decline ending. Especially when there are fairly obvious background factors that caused it.

Few things.. Belarus is really looking good at U18's and I hope it converts into U20 and then NHL success for them!

Second, I'd argue we haven't declined in a decade. We dropped out of the big 7 and have been sitting at 6 for a solid decade now. I'm pretty sure we always make the quarters at Olympics, World's, U20's, U18's and Hlinka's. I can't think of many exceptions but they'd be just that, exceptions.

No one is happy about being 6th best in a 5 team dominated sport and it's a weird spot but we own that spot.lol

Also, I'd argue it is slowly getting better for us. We finally have pure goal scorers in Vrana, Kubalik and Pastrnak. We have good NHL C's. We have good young prospects. We may lead the world in backup goalies.lol We should've had 2 starters in tonights playoff games (washington and carolina). We do have a small stream of NHL D with a few prospects coming. We had several guys lead their team in scoring (Hronek, Zacha and Voracek). Most our old players are gone. Next 2 best on best Olympics we have the ability to send an all NHL team. Whether we will or not is a whole other issue.lol

 

[SOLR]

Well, I'm sorry that you took it personally - that wasn't my intention (personally, I don't see any of the above in my previous response). I was purely pointing out that to me, such a bold statement requires more elaboration on your part in order for others to understand where you are coming from.

Let's assume I would say that Canada would cease to be the strongest hockey nation in the world, without any facts or information backing up that claim, wouldn't that sound ridiculous to you? Now you regard it as 'childish' if someone makes you aware of the bold nature of your claim?

It was you who brought forward the bold claim that Germany will overtake the Czechs within 10 years time. I'm open minded and willing to discuss that topic with you. Let me know what hockey data you base your claim on, ultimately leading to the conclusion above.

I've been providing arguments for 10 pages now, you just don't like them (neither did I illustrate all the data points I'm thinking about - sorry that would be a little long). The main point is that from my look at it recently, under multiple vectors WJC data is quite telling.

Can't put it any better than this poster did:

You choose to ignore the facts that don't fit your narrative. As in the whole young generation of Czech players led by Pasta and Necas. So Germany's talent develops in waves but Czech waves mean nothing. Mkay.

Just for sake of numbers, the Czechs have 11 U25 NHL players who played at least 10 games, Germany has 1. You were the one talking about how the Czechs need depth to develop elite players while completely ignoring Germany has almost no depth whatsoever below their elite players. The whole argument from your side is just some completely trivial conjecture based on German economic power, evidently.

And yes, ALL the former east block countries suffered a major setback at the end of the 20th century, Czechs and Slovaks definitely included. But you base everything on assumption, that they will stay there forever despite still having strong systems at the grassroots level while countries like Germany will just make giant leaps because they in theory have the money to do so.

And it's no coincidence financial and political stability meant Czechs are resurging, Slovaks are about to have their best generation since forever in 2022 draft, Belarus is stronger than ever, Kazakhstan managed to come back to elite division at WJC level.. If you were perceptive enough to notice "20 years of continuous decline" maybe it's not the time to put the head in the sign when all the signs point to that decline ending. Especially when there are fairly obvious background factors that caused it.

Hmm, you just choose to fill the blanks in everything I say with who you think I am, but I'm not at all. I have made numerous post at the beginning of this year (and last year) seeing this wave of Czech talent coming, but I also already see the limit of this wave (ie. 3 good years), something I'm not seeing in the German system. Slovaks will have a jolt as well, great. All the arguments I'm presenting is while knowing full well what will happen in the next 2-3 years (and my evaluation of the after with what I'm seeing in the system) - hoping I'm wrong.

"Czechs have 11 U25 NHL players who played at least 10 games, Germany has 1." Don't talk to me about picking the data you want haha.

"Belarus is stronger than ever, Kazakhstan managed to come back to elite division at WJC level" Yeah not so sure there, these countries have a lot of instability ahead of them.

I already anticipate there being quite a lot of hilarity post-2022 draft, especially if all 3 Slovak top prospects go in the 1st round, and there being a new wave of preachers how it's actually Slovakia that will soon retake positions and make it top-7 of hockey again and so on. Can see it already.

Look, I get that it's good to be skeptical when someone's analysis is predicting a decline. This is not a knee-jerk reaction based on Germany's last wave of talent. You had a sleeping giant in Europe, and the giant has awakened (it will be 5x more awaken if Stuetzle becomes a star). Much like the US is set on surpassing Canada soon (and they are succeeding). Larger economies, bigger populations, tend to win the macro battles linked to numbers.

 

[SOLR]

Which train? What has the last 20 years of US hockey shown us?

The train of the US ramping up resources, enrolment and development.

On the female side, we can no longer really aspire to win (while we used to dominate).
On the male side, it was always going to take some time, but with Quebec pulling the plug to hockey (football), the US will get there soon. Western Canada + Ontario, can't keep Canada #1 alone.

I'm heading to Czech Republic next summer, we should meet

 

[SoundAndFury]

"Czechs have 11 U25 NHL players who played at least 10 games, Germany has 1." Don't talk to me about picking the data you want haha.

I mean the rest we can agree to disagree with but I'm not really sure how this is "picked data". How is it possible to make Germany look good or Czechs look bad when it comes to young NHL players? I don't understand. What have I missed here?

 

[SOLR]

I mean the rest we can agree to disagree with but I'm not really sure how this is "picked data". How is it possible to make Germany look good or Czechs look bad when it comes to young NHL players? I don't understand. What have I missed here?

So in 2 years when Bokk, Peterka, Reichel and Seider will enter at the same time, the ratio will be quite different, while a few of the older Czechs will be leaving that group etc (+Mysak). Flux by age group based on independent team decision introduces all kind of weird variables like the salary cap, career management etc.

 

[SoundAndFury]

So in 2 years when Bokk, Peterka, Reichel and Seider will enter at the same time, the ratio will be quite different, while a few of the older Czechs will be leaving that group etc (+Mysak). Flux by age group based on independent team decision introduces all kind of weird variables like the salary cap, career management etc.

It's not at all a given fact Bokk and Peterka do enter the NHL, ever. And by the time they do, there can be any number of young Czechs there (Jasek, Kaut, Jenik, Zohorna, Lauko, Galvas, Dostal, Korenar). Only the biggest German optimists could realistically project Czechs not having at least 3 to 1 advantage even a few years down the road.

 

[Mathieukferland]

The train of the US ramping up resources, enrolment and development.

On the female side, we can no longer really aspire to win (while we used to dominate).
On the male side, it was always going to take some time, but with Quebec pulling the plug to hockey (football), the US will get there soon. Western Canada + Ontario, can't keep Canada #1 alone.

I'm heading to Czech Republic next summer, we should meet

“the train is coming”

8 of the top 13 scorers this year are Canadian and the national team hasn’t lost a competitive game best on best since 2010, if the train is coming, it’s certainly not a TGV/bullet train, it’s a handcar

 

[Mathieukferland]

The train of the US ramping up resources, enrolment and development.

On the female side, we can no longer really aspire to win (while we used to dominate).
On the male side, it was always going to take some time, but with Quebec pulling the plug to hockey (football), the US will get there soon. Western Canada + Ontario, can't keep Canada #1 alone.

I'm heading to Czech Republic next summer, we should meet

Also I’m from Québec and I have no idea what you’re talking about, football is a niche sport mainly played in Beauce and Montréal Nord, hockey is by far the most played sport at youth level