TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
Rank | Player | Team | Goals Allowed Per Expected Goal (Average) |
1 | John Gibson | ANA | 0.85 |
2 | Sergei Bobrovsky | CBJ | 0.88 |
3 | Philipp Grubauer | COL/WSH | 0.89 |
4 | Corey Crawford | CHI | 0.93 |
5 | Ryan Miller | ANA/VAN | 0.95 |
6 | Ben Bishop | DAL/T.B/L.A | 0.95 |
7 | Frederik Andersen | TOR | 0.95 |
8 | Matt Murray | PIT | 0.95 |
9 | Marc-Andre Fleury | VGK/PIT | 0.96 |
10 | Braden Holtby | WSH | 0.96 |
11 | Pekka Rinne | NSH | 0.97 |
12 | Jaroslav Halak | BOS/NYI | 0.98 |
13 | Darcy Kuemper | ARI/L.A/MIN | 0.99 |
14 | Mike Smith | CGY/ARI | 1.00 |
15 | Thomas Greiss | NYI | 1.00 |
16 | Cam Talbot | EDM/PHI | 1.00 |
17 | Robin Lehner | NYI/BUF | 1.00 |
18 | Jimmy Howard | DET | 1.00 |
19 | Carter Hutton | BUF/STL | 1.01 |
20 | Roberto Luongo | FLA | 1.01 |
21 | Martin Jones | S.J | 1.02 |
22 | Henrik Lundqvist | NYR | 1.02 |
23 | Jonathan Quick | L.A | 1.02 |
24 | Jacob Markstrom | VAN | 1.02 |
25 | James Reimer | FLA | 1.02 |
26 | Connor Hellebuyck | WPG | 1.03 |
27 | Tuukka Rask | BOS | 1.03 |
28 | Andrei Vasilevskiy | T.B | 1.04 |
29 | Brian Elliott | PHI/CGY | 1.05 |
30 | Semyon Varlamov | COL | 1.06 |
31 | Jonathan Bernier | DET/COL/ANA | 1.06 |
32 | Carey Price | MTL | 1.06 |
33 | Kari Lehtonen | DAL | 1.06 |
34 | Keith Kinkaid | N.J | 1.07 |
35 | Cory Schneider | N.J | 1.08 |
36 | Petr Mrazek | CAR/DET/PHI | 1.10 |
37 | Craig Anderson | OTT | 1.11 |
38 | Devan Dubnyk | MIN | 1.11 |
39 | Jake Allen | STL | 1.12 |
40 | Cam Ward | CHI/CAR | 1.12 |
These are all the goaltenders to play at least 5,000 minutes over the past 3 seasons. This was just an arbitrary number that I picked and once I saw that exactly 40 goaltenders had played that number of minutes, I figured that number sounded about right.
The data used to calculate these numbers is from both Natural Stat Trick and Corsica.Hockey. For each model, goals against were divided by expected goals against. In order to combine the two models, goals against and expected goals against for each data set were added together. (Corsica's data set slightly varies from Natural Stat Trick's because Corsica is missing a few games and goals.)
The full data is here:
Player | Team | GA (Corsica) | xGA (Corsica) | Goals Allowed Per Expected Goal (Corsica) | Goals Against (NST) | xG Against (NST) | Goals Allowed Per Expected Goal (NST) | Goals Allowed Per Expected Goal (Combined) |
John Gibson | ANA | 399 | 482.03 | 0.83 | 401 | 462.4 | 0.87 | 0.85 |
Sergei Bobrovsky | CBJ | 437 | 515.7 | 0.85 | 438 | 474.62 | 0.92 | 0.88 |
Philipp Grubauer | COL/WSH | 203 | 234.61 | 0.87 | 205 | 224.23 | 0.91 | 0.89 |
Corey Crawford | CHI | 305 | 341.78 | 0.89 | 306 | 317.63 | 0.96 | 0.93 |
Ben Bishop | DAL/T.B/L.A | 301 | 322.23 | 0.93 | 301 | 309.58 | 0.97 | 0.95 |
Ryan Miller | ANA/VAN | 254 | 281.6 | 0.90 | 254 | 252.02 | 1.01 | 0.95 |
Frederik Andersen | TOR | 513 | 557.13 | 0.92 | 513 | 517.9 | 0.99 | 0.95 |
Marc-Andre Fleury | VGK/PIT | 359 | 388.65 | 0.92 | 359 | 360.52 | 1.00 | 0.96 |
Braden Holtby | WSH | 439 | 459.8 | 0.95 | 440 | 453.6 | 0.97 | 0.96 |
Pekka Rinne | NSH | 405 | 434.3 | 0.93 | 408 | 403.98 | 1.01 | 0.97 |
Jaroslav Halak | BOS/NYI | 325 | 352.25 | 0.92 | 326 | 314.77 | 1.04 | 0.98 |
Matt Murray | PIT | 730 | 786.55 | 0.93 | 373 | 364.82 | 1.02 | 0.96 |
Darcy Kuemper | ARI/L.A/MIN | 246 | 257.46 | 0.96 | 248 | 241.79 | 1.03 | 0.99 |
Mike Smith | CGY/ARI | 406 | 417.14 | 0.97 | 406 | 396.96 | 1.02 | 1.00 |
Thomas Greiss | NYI | 308 | 320.59 | 0.96 | 308 | 296.69 | 1.04 | 1.00 |
Robin Lehner | NYI/BUF | 388 | 396.58 | 0.98 | 388 | 377.51 | 1.03 | 1.00 |
Jimmy Howard | DET | 363 | 373.6 | 0.97 | 365 | 352.54 | 1.04 | 1.00 |
Cam Talbot | EDM/PHI | 466 | 485.2 | 0.96 | 467 | 446 | 1.05 | 1.00 |
Carter Hutton | BUF/STL | 256 | 264.53 | 0.97 | 256 | 241.99 | 1.06 | 1.01 |
Roberto Luongo | FLA | 307 | 322.4 | 0.95 | 307 | 283.4 | 1.08 | 1.01 |
Martin Jones | S.J | 471 | 479.79 | 0.98 | 473 | 447.66 | 1.06 | 1.02 |
Henrik Lundqvist | NYR | 480 | 492.78 | 0.97 | 480 | 450.13 | 1.07 | 1.02 |
Jonathan Quick | L.A | 330 | 325.92 | 1.01 | 331 | 321.31 | 1.03 | 1.02 |
Jacob Markstrom | VAN | 379 | 388.21 | 0.98 | 382 | 356.92 | 1.07 | 1.02 |
Connor Hellebuyck | WPG | 479 | 485.98 | 0.99 | 481 | 449.64 | 1.07 | 1.03 |
James Reimer | FLA | 311 | 321.56 | 0.97 | 311 | 285.66 | 1.09 | 1.02 |
Tuukka Rask | BOS | 371 | 372.04 | 1.00 | 371 | 348.29 | 1.07 | 1.03 |
Andrei Vasilevskiy | T.B | 418 | 419.88 | 1.00 | 418 | 387.74 | 1.08 | 1.04 |
Brian Elliott | PHI/CGY | 296 | 290.46 | 1.02 | 302 | 280.12 | 1.08 | 1.05 |
Jonathan Bernier | DET/COL/ANA | 276 | 264.19 | 1.04 | 276 | 258.03 | 1.07 | 1.06 |
Semyon Varlamov | COL | 336 | 330.37 | 1.02 | 340 | 309.79 | 1.10 | 1.06 |
Carey Price | MTL | 445 | 437.64 | 1.02 | 447 | 404.15 | 1.11 | 1.06 |
Kari Lehtonen | DAL | 234 | 224.39 | 1.04 | 234 | 215.4 | 1.09 | 1.06 |
Keith Kinkaid | N.J | 296 | 291.31 | 1.02 | 300 | 263.15 | 1.14 | 1.07 |
Cory Schneider | N.J | 347 | 339.84 | 1.02 | 347 | 305.56 | 1.14 | 1.08 |
Petr Mrazek | CAR/DET/PHI | 344 | 329.62 | 1.04 | 346 | 299.08 | 1.16 | 1.10 |
Craig Anderson | OTT | 433 | 411.38 | 1.05 | 435 | 372.48 | 1.17 | 1.11 |
Devan Dubnyk | MIN | 449 | 410.68 | 1.09 | 449 | 396.35 | 1.13 | 1.11 |
Jake Allen | STL | 411 | 378.82 | 1.08 | 411 | 358.38 | 1.15 | 1.12 |
Cam Ward | CHI/CAR | 389 | 362.69 | 1.07 | 389 | 334.73 | 1.16 | 1.12 |
In my opinion, this is by far the best way to statistically evaluate goaltenders since it accounts for shot quality. Other metrics like GAA, SV%, Wins, etc. don't account for shot quality. Obviously these expected goal metrics aren't perfect but they do have a strong correlation between actual goals and the methodology behind them is solid.
In addition, I think that "goals allowed per expected goal" is the best way to describe and express this metric. Metrics like delta save percentage or GSAA are not quite as simple and do not explain themselves so clearly. "Goals allowed per expected goal" is a lot more simple IMO. For every 100 expected goals that your team allows, John Gibson allows only 85 goals, and Cam Ward allows 112. That is very easy to explain.
Obviously, if I were ranking goaltenders, my final list would be a little different from the list we have here. For example, factors like consistent performance under a heavier workload would lead me to rank Frederik Andersen over Philipp Grubauer, factors like playoff performance would lead me to rank Braden Holtby over Frederik Andersen, and factors like recency bias would lead me to rank Andrei Vasilevskiy over Martin Jones.
However, I still think the list is pretty damn good, and does a better job of ranking these goaltenders than most skater ranking metrics I've seen. Thoughts on the list?
EDIT: A post later in the thread which dives into one unpopular assumption (Rask Vs. Halak). Worth reading.
Using data from Hockeyviz, let's look at Halak and Rask over the past 3 seasons:
Look at the defense that Rask played in front of in 2016-2017 and 2017-2018:
Now compare that to the defense that Halak played under:
Is it not pretty clear, judging from these 8 images, that comparing Halak and Rask side-by-side without adjusting for shot quality will be very flattering to Rask? This is like comparing point totals when one guy plays with Connor McDavid and the other guy plays with Chris Tierney. When we compare players in that manner, we are perfectly fine with adjusting for the environment around these players. Why shouldn't we also do this for goaltenders?
Now look at 2018-2019, when they played for the same team, and therefore played under a very similar defense:
2018-2019 is the only season where they have faced shot quality that is remotely similar, and Rask still faced somewhat easier shots. Despite that, Halak posted a .922 SV%, and Rask posted a .912 SV%.
After looking at this information and seeing, with your eyes, the kind of shots that they faced - as opposed to just numbers on a spreadsheet, which say that Halak faced tougher shots. Does it now make some sense to say that, considering that Rask's SV% is only .001 higher than Halak's over the past 3 seasons, that after adjusting for shot quality, Halak has out-performed Rask in the minutes that he has played?
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