RankPlayerTeamGoals Allowed Per Expected Goal (Average)1John GibsonANA0.852Sergei BobrovskyCBJ0.883Philipp GrubauerCOL/WSH0.894Corey CrawfordCHI0.935Ryan MillerANA/VAN0.956Ben BishopDAL/T.B/L.A0.957Frederik AndersenTOR0.958Matt MurrayPIT0.959Marc-Andre FleuryVGK/PIT0.9610Braden HoltbyWSH0.9611Pekka RinneNSH0.9712Jaroslav HalakBOS/NYI0.9813Darcy KuemperARI/L.A/MIN0.9914Mike SmithCGY/ARI1.0015Thomas GreissNYI1.0016Cam TalbotEDM/PHI1.0017Robin LehnerNYI/BUF1.0018Jimmy HowardDET1.0019Carter HuttonBUF/STL1.0120Roberto LuongoFLA1.0121Martin JonesS.J1.0222Henrik LundqvistNYR1.0223Jonathan QuickL.A1.0224Jacob MarkstromVAN1.0225James ReimerFLA1.0226Connor HellebuyckWPG1.0327Tuukka RaskBOS1.0328Andrei VasilevskiyT.B1.0429Brian ElliottPHI/CGY1.0530Semyon VarlamovCOL1.0631Jonathan BernierDET/COL/ANA1.0632Carey PriceMTL1.0633Kari LehtonenDAL1.0634Keith KinkaidN.J1.0735Cory SchneiderN.J1.0836Petr MrazekCAR/DET/PHI1.1037Craig AndersonOTT1.1138Devan DubnykMIN1.1139Jake AllenSTL1.1240Cam WardCHI/CAR1.12I initially just calculated this for my own purposes and had no interest in starting a thread about it, but after seeing the results I felt like it was worth posting. The numbers pass the smell test even more so than I thought. These are all the goaltenders to play at least 5,000 minutes over the past 3 seasons. This was just an arbitrary number that I picked and once I saw that exactly 40 goaltenders had played that number of minutes, I figured that number sounded about right. The data used to calculate these numbers is from both Natural Stat Trick and Corsica.Hockey. For each model, goals against were divided by expected goals against. In order to combine the two models, goals against and expected goals against for each data set were added together. (Corsica's data set slightly varies from Natural Stat Trick's because Corsica is missing a few games and goals.) The full data is here: Spoiler PlayerTeamGA (Corsica)xGA (Corsica)Goals Allowed Per Expected Goal (Corsica)Goals Against (NST)xG Against (NST)Goals Allowed Per Expected Goal (NST)Goals Allowed Per Expected Goal (Combined)John GibsonANA399482.030.83401462.40.870.85Sergei BobrovskyCBJ437515.70.85438474.620.920.88Philipp GrubauerCOL/WSH203234.610.87205224.230.910.89Corey CrawfordCHI305341.780.89306317.630.960.93Ben BishopDAL/T.B/L.A301322.230.93301309.580.970.95Ryan MillerANA/VAN254281.60.90254252.021.010.95Frederik AndersenTOR513557.130.92513517.90.990.95Marc-Andre FleuryVGK/PIT359388.650.92359360.521.000.96Braden HoltbyWSH439459.80.95440453.60.970.96Pekka RinneNSH405434.30.93408403.981.010.97Jaroslav HalakBOS/NYI325352.250.92326314.771.040.98Matt MurrayPIT730786.550.93373364.821.020.96Darcy KuemperARI/L.A/MIN246257.460.96248241.791.030.99Mike SmithCGY/ARI406417.140.97406396.961.021.00Thomas GreissNYI308320.590.96308296.691.041.00Robin LehnerNYI/BUF388396.580.98388377.511.031.00Jimmy HowardDET363373.60.97365352.541.041.00Cam TalbotEDM/PHI466485.20.964674461.051.00Carter HuttonBUF/STL256264.530.97256241.991.061.01Roberto LuongoFLA307322.40.95307283.41.081.01Martin JonesS.J471479.790.98473447.661.061.02Henrik LundqvistNYR480492.780.97480450.131.071.02Jonathan QuickL.A330325.921.01331321.311.031.02Jacob MarkstromVAN379388.210.98382356.921.071.02Connor HellebuyckWPG479485.980.99481449.641.071.03James ReimerFLA311321.560.97311285.661.091.02Tuukka RaskBOS371372.041.00371348.291.071.03Andrei VasilevskiyT.B418419.881.00418387.741.081.04Brian ElliottPHI/CGY296290.461.02302280.121.081.05Jonathan BernierDET/COL/ANA276264.191.04276258.031.071.06Semyon VarlamovCOL336330.371.02340309.791.101.06Carey PriceMTL445437.641.02447404.151.111.06Kari LehtonenDAL234224.391.04234215.41.091.06Keith KinkaidN.J296291.311.02300263.151.141.07Cory SchneiderN.J347339.841.02347305.561.141.08Petr MrazekCAR/DET/PHI344329.621.04346299.081.161.10Craig AndersonOTT433411.381.05435372.481.171.11Devan DubnykMIN449410.681.09449396.351.131.11Jake AllenSTL411378.821.08411358.381.151.12Cam WardCHI/CAR389362.691.07389334.731.161.12 In my opinion, this is by far the best way to statistically evaluate goaltenders since it accounts for shot quality. Other metrics like GAA, SV%, Wins, etc. don't account for shot quality. Obviously these expected goal metrics aren't perfect but they do have a strong correlation between actual goals and the methodology behind them is solid. In addition, I think that "goals allowed per expected goal" is the best way to describe and express this metric. Metrics like delta save percentage or GSAA are not quite as simple and do not explain themselves so clearly. "Goals allowed per expected goal" is a lot more simple IMO. For every 100 expected goals that your team allows, John Gibson allows only 85 goals, and Cam Ward allows 112. That is very easy to explain. Obviously, if I were ranking goaltenders, my final list would be a little different from the list we have here. For example, factors like consistent performance under a heavier workload would lead me to rank Frederik Andersen over Philipp Grubauer, factors like playoff performance would lead me to rank Braden Holtby over Frederik Andersen, and factors like recency bias would lead me to rank Andrei Vasilevskiy over Martin Jones. However, I still think the list is pretty damn good, and does a better job of ranking these goaltenders than most skater ranking metrics I've seen. Thoughts on the list? EDIT: A post later in the thread which dives into one unpopular assumption (Rask Vs. Halak). Worth reading.