Ranking the top-40 goaltenders by Goals Allowed Per Expected Goal Against

[EON]

I like the idea of the stat and I think it's well thought out. But the more results of advanced stats that I see, the more convinced I am that, like regular stats, they only provide very limited insight into the game.

There's just no way guys like Vasilevskiy and Rask are below average goalies.

Rask absolutely deserves to be low, and I'm saying this as a Bruins fan. He has been average to below average in the regular season the past 4 seasons. He just had an incredible playoff run where he randomly got hot (which happens a lot in the NHL honestly).

I am surprised Vasilevskiy is this low, but instead of discounting this method because it didn't spit out the result you expected, perhaps you should reconsider your perspective and thinking. It's better to work through the data and reach conclusions after analyzing the data, than it is to start with a pre-determined conclusion and discard anything that doesn't support it.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

Rask absolutely deserves to be low, and I'm saying this as a Bruins fan. He has been average to below average in the regular season the past 4 seasons. He just had an incredible playoff run where he randomly got hot (which happens a lot in the NHL, goaltending can be very random).

I am surprised Vasilevskiy is this low, but instead of discounting this method because it didn't spit out the result you expected, perhaps you should reconsider your perspective and thinking. It's better to work through the data and reach conclusions after analyzing the data, than it is to start with a pre-determined conclusion and discard anything that doesn't support it.

I agree with your thoughts on analyzing the data, but I also know that any stat is only as good as the data that's fed into it. Quite frankly, the minimal amount of data that goes into these advanced stats (really only shot location and save percentage) aren't enough to gain much meaningful insight.

Any person who has a moderate knowledge of the game can take in way more data in seeing the game, seeing the actual saves and draw much more meaningful conclusions (albeit with bias). That's the reason teams still use scouts, and any advanced stats they use are much more complex and data driven (i.e. player tracking) than anything published on a website.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

Surprised Murray was so high on this list. Goes to show that he actually is a top end goalie but is hung out to dry by his team too much.

 

[Doctor No]

Any person who has a moderate knowledge of the game can take in way more data in seeing the game, seeing the actual saves and draw much more meaningful conclusions (albeit with bias). That's the reason teams still use scouts, and any advanced stats they use are much more complex and data driven (i.e. player tracking) than anything published on a website.

The bias is significant in this (and worth more than a passing mention in a parenthetical) - narrative bias, confirmation bias, highlight bias, others. As you note, the best approaches use both scouting and analytics.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

i like it but corsica's xg model overrates tampas team defense and underrates our goaltending since tampa jukes shot location super hard allowing a ton of slot shots and very few crease shots. with that in mind i think vasilevskiy is above average but far from elite

offensively tampa also slot jukes a bit so corsica sort of underrates tampas team offense as well, but thats unrelated to vasy.

If we exclude the results from Corsica’s model and only use the results from Natural Stat Trick, Vasilevskiy’s rank among his peers actually drops even further down the list.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

If we exclude the results from Corsica’s model and only use the results from Natural Stat Trick, Vasilevskiy’s rank among his peers actually drops even further down the list.

for some reason some xg models like those really only value shot distance. i much prefer the xg models of hockeyviz and evolvinghockey which factor in other aspects other than distance lol

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Rank	Player	Team	Goals Allowed Per Expected Goal (Average)
1	John Gibson	ANA	0.85
2	Sergei Bobrovsky	CBJ	0.88
3	Philipp Grubauer	COL/WSH	0.89
4	Corey Crawford	CHI	0.93
5	Ryan Miller	ANA/VAN	0.95
6	Ben Bishop	DAL/T.B/L.A	0.95
7	Frederik Andersen	TOR	0.95
8	Matt Murray	PIT	0.95
9	Marc-Andre Fleury	VGK/PIT	0.96
10	Braden Holtby	WSH	0.96
11	Pekka Rinne	NSH	0.97
12	Jaroslav Halak	BOS/NYI	0.98
13	Darcy Kuemper	ARI/L.A/MIN	0.99
14	Mike Smith	CGY/ARI	1.00
15	Thomas Greiss	NYI	1.00
16	Cam Talbot	EDM/PHI	1.00
17	Robin Lehner	NYI/BUF	1.00
18	Jimmy Howard	DET	1.00
19	Carter Hutton	BUF/STL	1.01
20	Roberto Luongo	FLA	1.01
21	Martin Jones	S.J	1.02
22	Henrik Lundqvist	NYR	1.02
23	Jonathan Quick	L.A	1.02
24	Jacob Markstrom	VAN	1.02
25	James Reimer	FLA	1.02
26	Connor Hellebuyck	WPG	1.03
27	Tuukka Rask	BOS	1.03
28	Andrei Vasilevskiy	T.B	1.04
29	Brian Elliott	PHI/CGY	1.05
30	Semyon Varlamov	COL	1.06
31	Jonathan Bernier	DET/COL/ANA	1.06
32	Carey Price	MTL	1.06
33	Kari Lehtonen	DAL	1.06
34	Keith Kinkaid	N.J	1.07
35	Cory Schneider	N.J	1.08
36	Petr Mrazek	CAR/DET/PHI	1.10
37	Craig Anderson	OTT	1.11
38	Devan Dubnyk	MIN	1.11
39	Jake Allen	STL	1.12
40	Cam Ward	CHI/CAR	1.12

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I initially just calculated this for my own purposes and had no interest in starting a thread about it, but after seeing the results I felt like it was worth posting. The numbers pass the smell test even more so than I thought.

These are all the goaltenders to play at least 5,000 minutes over the past 3 seasons. This was just an arbitrary number that I picked and once I saw that exactly 40 goaltenders had played that number of minutes, I figured that number sounded about right.

The data used to calculate these numbers is from both Natural Stat Trick and Corsica.Hockey. For each model, goals against were divided by expected goals against. In order to combine the two models, goals against and expected goals against for each data set were added together. (Corsica's data set slightly varies from Natural Stat Trick's because Corsica is missing a few games and goals.)

The full data is here:

Spoiler

Player	Team	GA (Corsica)	xGA (Corsica)	Goals Allowed Per Expected Goal (Corsica)	Goals Against (NST)	xG Against (NST)	Goals Allowed Per Expected Goal (NST)	Goals Allowed Per Expected Goal (Combined)
John Gibson	ANA	399	482.03	0.83	401	462.4	0.87	0.85
Sergei Bobrovsky	CBJ	437	515.7	0.85	438	474.62	0.92	0.88
Philipp Grubauer	COL/WSH	203	234.61	0.87	205	224.23	0.91	0.89
Corey Crawford	CHI	305	341.78	0.89	306	317.63	0.96	0.93
Ben Bishop	DAL/T.B/L.A	301	322.23	0.93	301	309.58	0.97	0.95
Ryan Miller	ANA/VAN	254	281.6	0.90	254	252.02	1.01	0.95
Frederik Andersen	TOR	513	557.13	0.92	513	517.9	0.99	0.95
Marc-Andre Fleury	VGK/PIT	359	388.65	0.92	359	360.52	1.00	0.96
Braden Holtby	WSH	439	459.8	0.95	440	453.6	0.97	0.96
Pekka Rinne	NSH	405	434.3	0.93	408	403.98	1.01	0.97
Jaroslav Halak	BOS/NYI	325	352.25	0.92	326	314.77	1.04	0.98
Matt Murray	PIT	730	786.55	0.93	373	364.82	1.02	0.96
Darcy Kuemper	ARI/L.A/MIN	246	257.46	0.96	248	241.79	1.03	0.99
Mike Smith	CGY/ARI	406	417.14	0.97	406	396.96	1.02	1.00
Thomas Greiss	NYI	308	320.59	0.96	308	296.69	1.04	1.00
Robin Lehner	NYI/BUF	388	396.58	0.98	388	377.51	1.03	1.00
Jimmy Howard	DET	363	373.6	0.97	365	352.54	1.04	1.00
Cam Talbot	EDM/PHI	466	485.2	0.96	467	446	1.05	1.00
Carter Hutton	BUF/STL	256	264.53	0.97	256	241.99	1.06	1.01
Roberto Luongo	FLA	307	322.4	0.95	307	283.4	1.08	1.01
Martin Jones	S.J	471	479.79	0.98	473	447.66	1.06	1.02
Henrik Lundqvist	NYR	480	492.78	0.97	480	450.13	1.07	1.02
Jonathan Quick	L.A	330	325.92	1.01	331	321.31	1.03	1.02
Jacob Markstrom	VAN	379	388.21	0.98	382	356.92	1.07	1.02
Connor Hellebuyck	WPG	479	485.98	0.99	481	449.64	1.07	1.03
James Reimer	FLA	311	321.56	0.97	311	285.66	1.09	1.02
Tuukka Rask	BOS	371	372.04	1.00	371	348.29	1.07	1.03
Andrei Vasilevskiy	T.B	418	419.88	1.00	418	387.74	1.08	1.04
Brian Elliott	PHI/CGY	296	290.46	1.02	302	280.12	1.08	1.05
Jonathan Bernier	DET/COL/ANA	276	264.19	1.04	276	258.03	1.07	1.06
Semyon Varlamov	COL	336	330.37	1.02	340	309.79	1.10	1.06
Carey Price	MTL	445	437.64	1.02	447	404.15	1.11	1.06
Kari Lehtonen	DAL	234	224.39	1.04	234	215.4	1.09	1.06
Keith Kinkaid	N.J	296	291.31	1.02	300	263.15	1.14	1.07
Cory Schneider	N.J	347	339.84	1.02	347	305.56	1.14	1.08
Petr Mrazek	CAR/DET/PHI	344	329.62	1.04	346	299.08	1.16	1.10
Craig Anderson	OTT	433	411.38	1.05	435	372.48	1.17	1.11
Devan Dubnyk	MIN	449	410.68	1.09	449	396.35	1.13	1.11
Jake Allen	STL	411	378.82	1.08	411	358.38	1.15	1.12
Cam Ward	CHI/CAR	389	362.69	1.07	389	334.73	1.16	1.12

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In my opinion, this is by far the best way to statistically evaluate goaltenders since it accounts for shot quality. Other metrics like GAA, SV%, Wins, etc. don't account for shot quality. Obviously these expected goal metrics aren't perfect but they do have a strong correlation between actual goals and the methodology behind them is solid.

In addition, I think that "goals allowed per expected goal" is the best way to describe and express this metric. Metrics like delta save percentage or GSAA are not quite as simple and do not explain themselves so clearly. "Goals allowed per expected goal" is a lot more simple IMO. For every 100 expected goals that your team allows, John Gibson allows only 85 goals, and Cam Ward allows 112. That is very easy to explain.

Obviously, if I were ranking goaltenders, my final list would be a little different from the list we have here. For example, factors like consistent performance under a heavier workload would lead me to rank Frederik Andersen over Philipp Grubauer, factors like playoff performance would lead me to rank Braden Holtby over Frederik Andersen, and factors like recency bias would lead me to rank Andrei Vasilevskiy over Martin Jones.

However, I still think the list is pretty damn good, and does a better job of ranking these goaltenders than most skater ranking metrics I've seen. Thoughts on the list?

Any list that Ranks James Reimer above Carey Price is garbage

 

[joe dirte]

I like the idea of the stat and I think it's well thought out. But the more results of advanced stats that I see, the more convinced I am that, like regular stats, they only provide very limited insight into the game.

There's just no way guys like Vasilevskiy and Rask are below average goalies.

Every single stat tells a very small story. All thevstats together tell a decent story. And rhat all comes together watching them.

 

[Lshap]

Every single stat tells a very small story. All thevstats together tell a decent story. And rhat all comes together watching them.

Agreed. This model only gives us an insight into a small subset of total shots. It's interesting in isolation, but a goalie's job is defined by stopping every shot from every distance with every level of difficulty. No matter how hard, easy, close or far the shot, allowing a goal counts the same for all of them.

 

[Muikea Bulju]

There's just no way guys like Vasilevskiy and Rask are below average goalies.

Rask had the 3 worst regular seasons of his career in the span that OP toook in his sample.

And the stat was among the goalies with most minutes, not among all goalies.

Rask's MVP playoff-run wasn't even in the data?

 

[Kennedys]

Yay Price

 

[Kingspiracy]

How does expected goals allowed work? Is it by shot location? Does it take into account whether its Trevor Lewis or Anze Kopitar charging in on the breakaway?

A decent list, it just always feels like stats can be juggled to get whatever anwser you want sometimes.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

How does expected goals allowed work? Is it by shot location? Does it take into account whether its Trevor Lewis or Anze Kopitar charging in on the breakaway?

A decent list, it just always feels like stats can be juggled to get whatever anwser you want sometimes.

I think that's an inherent flaw in most advanced stats that people use on here. A high danger chance is a high danger chance whether it's Alex Ovechkin ripping a 15 foot wrister from the slot or Tanner Glass lobbing a 10 mph shot into the goalie's chest protector from the same spot.

 

[JoVel]

rip Tuuka and Vas.

The list has some flaws obviously but otherwise it looks pretty good to me. Crawford has to be the most underrated goalie of the last decade.

Crawford was hands down the most overrated goalie in the league a few years ago.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

for some reason some xg models like those really only value shot distance. i much prefer the xg models of hockeyviz and evolvinghockey which factor in other aspects other than distance lol

I haven’t seen an expected goal model from HockeyViz, but Evolving Hockey also ranks Vasilevskiy well below average.

Among the 40 goaltenders who faced a minimum of 3,600 unblocked shot attempts over the past 3 years, Vasilevskiy’s delta fenwick SV% of -0.17% ranks 28th according to Evolving Hockey. Pretty much right in line with where Corsica and Natural Stat Trick place him.

How does expected goals allowed work? Is it by shot location? Does it take into account whether its Trevor Lewis or Anze Kopitar charging in on the breakaway?

A decent list, it just always feels like stats can be juggled to get whatever anwser you want sometimes.

Yes, it accounts for mostly shot location but a few other factors as well. It does not account for shooters.

Corsica model explained: Shot Quality And Expected Goals: Part I | Corsica

Natural Stat Trick model explained (with much less detail):

 

[JaegerDice]

Crawford was hands down the most overrated goalie in the league a few years ago.

He was a top-5 goalie in the league between 2013 and 2017, so I'm not sure how he could have been overrated unless people were saying he was better than Dominic Hasek in his prime.

 

[strattonius]

After watching how well Markstrom played last year, there's just no way for me to concede hes ranked 24th.

 

[Frank Drebin]

When you use advanced stats to compile a list and then see how bad the list is, doesn't that tell you how bad the underlying statistic is?

Mike Smith placed 14th. Can Talbot placed 16th. Both above goalies like vasi, Rask, and price.

list is junk.

 

[666]

i like it but corsica's xg model overrates tampas team defense and underrates our goaltending since tampa jukes shot location super hard allowing a ton of slot shots and very few crease shots. with that in mind i think vasilevskiy is above average but far from elite

offensively tampa also slot jukes a bit so corsica sort of underrates tampas team offense as well, but thats unrelated to vasy.

Google returns 7 uses of the term "slot jukes" TOTAL. That's impressive.

 

[Nithoniniel]

When you use advanced stats to compile a list and then see how bad the list is, doesn't that tell you how bad the underlying statistic is?

What you are doing is a common mistake though. The reason we have these kinds of models is because our impressions are highly flawed, driven in large part by narratives and surface stats that paint very inaccurate pictures to begin with. The models are made to point out where we go wrong. If we dismiss stats that don't align with our preconceived impressions, there's no point to the whole process.

Now, let's accept that what I said about our impressions are true. Let's also hypothesize that someone creates a model that absolutely nails goaltending performance. It would in that case most likely deviate pretty severely from what our expectations were. If we do what comes so easily, what you did here, we'd dismiss that model outright.

This model is not that. Just some food for thought. Just because something shows results that seem wrong to us doesn't mean that they actually are.

 

[Frank Drebin]

What you are doing is a common mistake though. The reason we have these kinds of models is because our impressions are highly flawed, driven in large part by narratives and surface stats that paint very inaccurate pictures to begin with. The models are made to point out where we go wrong. If we dismiss stats that don't align with our preconceived impressions, there's no point to the whole process.

Now, let's accept that what I said about our impressions are true. Let's also hypothesize that someone creates a model that absolutely nails goaltending performance. It would in that case most likely deviate pretty severely from what our expectations were. If we do what comes so easily, what you did here, we'd dismiss that model outright.

This model is not that. Just some food for thought. Just because something shows results that seem wrong to us doesn't mean that they actually are.

I understand the reasoning. What I'm saying is that when you do a "food for thought" exercise like this where the results are so outrageously wrong (Talbot, Smith, Elliot over Price for example) I'm inclined to dismiss the data all together as it is flawed.

Unless you're willing to make a case for those goalies, I'm guessing you agree here.

 

[ToDavid]

I like the idea of the stat and I think it's well thought out. But the more results of advanced stats that I see, the more convinced I am that, like regular stats, they only provide very limited insight into the game.

There's just no way guys like Vasilevskiy and Rask are below average goalies.

Of course any stat by itself is limited. But it’s not exactly a surprising result that goalies on extremely strong teams are not as good as their traditional stats say they are.

How far worse? Are they below average? That’s where we need to dig deeper and I agree that a single advanced stat doesn’t answer those questions.

 

[ToDavid]

When you use advanced stats to compile a list and then see how bad the list is, doesn't that tell you how bad the underlying statistic is?

I agree with the conclusion because we know that shot quality stats are still very rough but I 100% disagree with your reasoning.

The fact that something challenges your preconceived notions is a terrible reason to disregard it.

 

[Frank Drebin]

I agree with the conclusion because we know that shot quality stats are still very rough but I 100% disagree with your reasoning.

The fact that something challenges your preconceived notions is a terrible reason to disregard it.

So are you saying I should be open minded to the idea that Brian Elliot may actually be a better goalie than Carey Price, and it's simply a pre conceived notion that Price is better?

Same goes for Talbot/Halak/Smith over Vasi/Rask.

Doesn't pass the eye test.
Doesn't pass the sniff test.
Doesn't match other arguably more important statistics.

 

[EveryDay]

LOL!!! This is just full of crap....

-- Bob Mackenzie #Hey guys, who do you think is the best goaltender in the NHL?

-- NHL Players: Carey Price(79%)

-- This article writers and HF posters : no guys Carey Price is probably the worst starter in the NHL!

-- NHL Players: Hahahahahaha good job clowns!!!


Rask Price Bishop and Vasi are the best goaltenders in the world and everybody who watch hockey knows this, Sorry folks.