decma
Registered User
- Feb 6, 2013
- 744
- 377
I think there's some value in the goals against data, but there's a fair amount of context that needs to be considered.
I agree completely. That's why I said the raw GA data were a start.
Let's look at Modano and Turgeon. ... So their personal GAA's were 1.51 for Modano, and 1.72 for Turgeon.
Yes, for 98 on it should be per ES minute rather than per game, which is what I introduced in a thread last year. I didn't have the time today to run the ice time numbers for all 11 players listed in the OP, but I suspect that with ice time taken into account, Oates will still be at or near the bottom, Modano will still be near the top, and Turgeon will still be above average (or at least far from the bottom, which is where everyone else in this thread has him).
and we haven't even talked about matchups yet.
Yes, let's please talk about matchups.
If Dal has a vested interest in matching Modano up against the other team's top line then, all else equal, the other team has a vested interest in avoiding that matchup (and, instead, putting their top line against Turgeon's line). So when Dal is at home we would expect Modano to have a disporportionate share of his ES ice time come against better offensive players, and when Dal is at home we would expect the opposite.
This is, of course, purely theoretical. But I have not seen any evidence to the contrary (that is, I have not seen any evidence that Modano had a higher share of his ice time against more offensively gifted players than did other top line Cs).