Prospect Info: Rangers Prospects Thread (Updated: 11.25.21)

[Ola]

What a stupid comment lol

"All analytics" gets you teams like the Avalanche which are absolutely stomping the whole league

If you as a GM and coach has analytics against you, I think you really must review your decision and ensure that it’s well based and speaks in your favor at the bottom line.

Both Vegas and Colorado picked up really solid well skating wingers cheap when others went with more PO designed players that hasn’t had the same effect. Is Mathias Jarnmark a typical PO performer? He is in his prime. He has a great engine. He works really hard. But he is certainly not a punishing player. He is doing really well for Vegas. Colorado has picked up many players like that too, good players.

 

[Joey Bones]

As expected, Calle Sjalin and NYR didn't agree to an ELC. He becomes a free agent and NYR loses his playing rights...

NYR Player rights now on the clock are Garand, Lindbom, Lundkvist, Ragnarsson, Rempe, and Vierling. Their rights expire June 1, 2022, if not signed by then.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

As expected, Calle Sjalin and NYR didn't agree to an ELC. He becomes a free agent and NYR loses his playing rights...

NYR Player rights now on the clock are Garand, Lindbom, Lundkvist, Ragnarsson, Rempe, and Vierling. Their rights expire June 1, 2022, if not signed by then.

Worth noting that two picks from 2018 have their rights expire only in 2023 as they joined college a year later after playing junior hockey for another season post-draft: Simon Kjellberg (USHL) and Riley Hughes (BCHL)

Hugo Ollas is now doing the same, extending his rights to 2025

 

[Raspewtin]

Nobody asked but Marek Hrivik led the SwedishHL in points this past year lol

I liked him when he was here.

 

[Joey Bones]

Nobody asked but Marek Hrivik led the SwedishHL in points this past year lol

I liked him when he was here.

Doing fairly well in the WC, too!!

 

[cwede]

Nobody asked but Marek Hrivik led the SwedishHL in points this past year lol. I liked him when he was here.

Doing fairly well in the WC, too!!

and earned himself a return to KHL
MVP Чемпионата Швеции Марек Хривик - в «Торпедо»!
SWEDISH CHAMPIONSHIP MVP MAREK HRIVIK - IN TORPEDO!
The best scorer and the most valuable player of the Swedish Championship Marek Hrivik joined the Torpedo hockey club.

 

[Roo Returns]

So yesterday my comment about "all analytics" which was extremely generalized and I never said was the right or wrong way to build a team gets called "stupid" and five people like it.

Today Pierre goes on 690 and says the exact same thing. Yes you can trash Pierre and say the Avs are analytics to (which of course they are as I f'n established).

So what does that say?

Use analytics as a tool when finding prospects (have to keep it relevant to this thread) but don't base it solely on analytics.

Pierre is a professional analyst and has been doing this a long time. Yes he has his shortcomings but he will forget more in a day than all of us collectively know.

Kind of goes to when I said DeAngelo has a lack of emotional intelligence and gets kicked off the team less than a week later.

I'm not looking for validation: my point is before you label anyone's comments on this board as stupid or have a red meat shit fest, maybe actually read what people write.

Just saying.....

 

[Ranger Ric]

I was going to write up a post on this but Raspewtin beat me to it and hit the highlights.

In answer to Joey Bones the time period 2005-2016 is very close to the Gordie Clark/Jeff Gorton era.

Clark was director of Amateur Scouting 2005-2007 and then took over as director of player personnel 2007-2020.

Gorton signed as a pro scout 2007-2008, Asst Director player personnel 2008-2011, AGM 2001-2015, and GM 2015-2021.

There is little evidence Sather played a major role in the draft.

The Rangers player value ranked 18th over that period. This was due in part to Sather trading away four first round picks and two second round picks between 2013-2016. When you consider the expected value of the draft selections the team had the Rangers ranked seventh in outperforming their draft capital.

Even more interesting was the finding that over this period the Rangers ranked 3rd in draft performance after round 1. There's always lots of criticism, some deserved, for later round picks. But every team makes choices that don't work out and I think three teams did not even qualify 2nd round picks by July 1 this year, not even bothering to sign these players.

So it's this type of analysis that provides a better sense of a teams drafting as opposed to focusing on the players that didn't pan out. And during the Clark/Gorton regime the Rangers did very well overall and extremely well after the first round.

Which NHL teams have drafted the best and worst since 2005?

Some key takeaways

-Rangers rank 18th in GSVA for their draft picks from 2005-2016 using only the first 7 years of results (less than 7 has been extrapolated to 7) (Washington and St Louis take #1 and #2, Canucks and Devils #29 and #30)
-Rangers rank 7th in outperforming their draft capital according to GSVA (the difference of wins provided by their picks v.s. the expected value of their picks)
-Rangers rank 3rd in draft performance outside of the 1st round (trailing only Tampa and Carolina)

As a reminder, GSVA is Dom L's statistic that means to be somewhat of a hockey stand-in for WAR.

Keep in mind these results do not include 2017 onwards, drafts of which I think would significantly increase the Rangers stock.

 

[nyr2k2]

I think it's really just the bad misses that push the negative narrative around the Rangers drafting, coupled with the fact that--for whatever reason--we have been unable to draft that true, high-end, star-caliber forward. Not to state what's too obvious, but had we found Kucherov, or taken Tarasenko or Giroux or whoever, that would totally change the narrative even with every other pick being the same.

 

[Ranger Ric]

And every team makes mistakes.

My favorite example is 2014 Tampa Bay. With complete justification everyone praises the Lightning for picking Braden Point in the 3rd round. But let's look at the rest of the draft.

In the first round Tampa chooses Anthony D'Angelo. Within two years the Lightning dump him off to Arizona for a second round pick. In taking D'Angelo at 19 Tampa passes on some guy named David Pastrnak who is picked 25 as well as Nick Schmaltz, Robbi Fabric and Kasperi Kapanen.

In the second round the Lighting have two choices. At 35 the Bolts took Dominik Masin who played 3 years in Syracuse and now is in Europe never having played an NHL game. at 59 the Lightning take BU defenseman John MacLeod. MacLeod never signs with Tampa and plays one year in the ECHL before ending his career. He is one of 12 players drafted in that second round who never played in the NHL. Tampa misses on Marcus Petterson, Brandon Montour and Christian Dvorak.

Picking Point at 79 is a great pick but if Tampa is so smart why did it wait for its fourth pick to take him? And if he was such an obvious pick why was he passed over 78 times?

As nyr2k2 says, fans focus too much on the misses their team makes and ignore the misses the other teams make. It is the type of analysis that Scott Wheeler prepared that provides a much more accurate assessment of a team's drafting success or failure.

I think it's really just the bad misses that push the negative narrative around the Rangers drafting, coupled with the fact that--for whatever reason--we have been unable to draft that true, high-end, star-caliber forward. Not to state what's too obvious, but had we found Kucherov, or taken Tarasenko or Giroux or whoever, that would totally change the narrative even with every other pick being the same.

 

[eco's bones]

And every team makes mistakes.

My favorite example is 2014 Tampa Bay. With complete justification everyone praises the Lightning for picking Braden Point in the 3rd round. But let's look at the rest of the draft.

In the first round Tampa chooses Anthony D'Angelo. Within two years the Lightning dump him off to Arizona for a second round pick. In taking D'Angelo at 19 Tampa passes on some guy named David Pastrnak who is picked 25 as well as Nick Schmaltz, Robbi Fabric and Kasperi Kapanen.

In the second round the Lighting have two choices. At 35 the Bolts took Dominik Masin who played 3 years in Syracuse and now is in Europe never having played an NHL game. at 59 the Lightning take BU defenseman John MacLeod. MacLeod never signs with Tampa and plays one year in the ECHL before ending his career. He is one of 12 players drafted in that second round who never played in the NHL. Tampa misses on Marcus Petterson, Brandon Montour and Christian Dvorak.

Picking Point at 79 is a great pick but if Tampa is so smart why did it wait for its fourth pick to take him? And if he was such an obvious pick why was he passed over 78 times?

As nyr2k2 says, fans focus too much on the misses their team makes and ignore the misses the other teams make. It is the type of analysis that Scott Wheeler prepared that provides a much more accurate assessment of a team's drafting success or failure.

Basically drafting 17/18 year olds can’t help but lead to players busting all the time. Some players just don’t develop and others like Point take off like gangbusters. That’s why I think it’s a good idea to focus on certain attributes such as skating because if they already have that it’s very unlikely they’re going to lose it. I also think that environment sometimes leads to better outcomes—that some players will adapt to certain teams, cities, situations than they would to others.

i don’t think the Rangers on the whole have been bad at drafting. Until recently we’ve never had top 5 picks (with the exception of Brendl) and we’ve had our share of bad luck at times—Cherepanov, Blackburn etc. Some of our bigger 1st round busts have happened in weaker drafts. Jessiman was a bad one for being a great draft year but McIlrath or Falardeau were kind of shit draft years. Even the Brendl draft wasn’t that great or the Montoya/Korpikoski draft either. In retrospect some 4th rounder like Kucherov leaves egg on the faces of pretty much every team in the league and not just the Rangers.

 

[eco's bones]

One thing we need to be wary of is drafting solely because of organizational need. Best player available is almost always the best way to go.

 

[ArPanet]

be interesting to see a breakdown of Rangers drafting before and after Don Maloney left and how much significance that has in Dom L's report

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Huska in nets SVK vs USA right now

 

[cwede]

Huska in nets SVK vs USA right now

had a rough last ~6 minutes of 1st, 3GA from Boyle, Blackwell, Garland

 

[bobbop]

I think it's really just the bad misses that push the negative narrative around the Rangers drafting, coupled with the fact that--for whatever reason--we have been unable to draft that true, high-end, star-caliber forward. Not to state what's too obvious, but had we found Kucherov, or taken Tarasenko or Giroux or whoever, that would totally change the narrative even with every other pick being the same.

Every team has bad misses

 

[nyr2k2]

Every team has bad misses

I understand that. I'm just saying, the idea that we're bad at drafting is driven by the Jessiman, McIlrath, Andersson, Sanguinetti picks and so on. When in fact our drafting has otherwise been good. But those noteworthy misses are what sticks out in the minds of many fans.

 

[cwede]

Jim Malone, Michael Stewart, Jeff Brown, Cherneski (injury), Jessiman, Cherepanov (RIP) - you come to believe that 1st rounders who never/barely sniff an NHL bench is normal ...

 

[Ranger Ric]

The report covers the period 2005-2016. Don Maloney was the Rangers AGM for two seasons in this period -- 2005-2007.

Here are the draft results for those years:

20005
OVERALL	TEAM	PLAYER	SEASONS	GP	G	A	TP	PIM
ROUND 1
#12		New York Rangers	Marc Staal (D)	14	948	46	152	198	452
ROUND 2
#40		New York Rangers	Michael Sauer (D)	4	98	4	14	18	96
#56		New York Rangers	Marc-André Cliche (F)	3	151	3	11	14	34
ROUND 3
#66		New York Rangers	Brodie Dupont (F)	1	1	0	0	0	0
#77		New York Rangers	Dalyn Flatt (D)
ROUND 4
#107		New York Rangers	Tom Pyatt (F)	8	445	43	58	101	71
ROUND 5
#147		New York Rangers	Trevor Koverko (D)
ROUND 6
#178		New York Rangers	Greg Beller (F)
ROUND 7
#211		New York Rangers	Ryan Russell (F)	1	41	2	0	2	2

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2006
OVERALL	TEAM	PLAYER	SEASONS	GP	G	A	TP	PIM
ROUND 1
#21		New York Rangers	Bobby Sanguinetti (D)	3	45	2	4	6	8
ROUND 2
#54		New York Rangers	Artyom Anisimov (F)	13	771	180	196	376	214
ROUND 3
#84		New York Rangers	Ryan Hillier (F)
ROUND 4
#104		New York Rangers	David Kveton (F)
ROUND 5
#137		New York Rangers	Tomas Zaborsky (F)
ROUND 6
#174		New York Rangers	Eric Hunter (F)
ROUND 7
#204		New York Rangers	Lukas Zeliska (F)

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Staal and Anisimov clearly helped. Pyatt, Sauer and Chiche, along with Anisimov helped on the after first round analysis. These two years probably were positives win the analysis but I'm not sure that these 2 years out of an 11 year analysis would make a big difference.

The analysis listed the following Rangers as "notables" in determining value that draftees provided: Igor Shesterkin, Marc Staal, Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller, Pavel Buchnevich. All post Maloney except Staal.

Outside the first round "notables" were: Igor Shesterkin, Pavel Buchnevich, Derek Stepan. All post-Maloney.

be interesting to see a breakdown of Rangers drafting before and after Don Maloney left and how much significance that has in Dom L's report

 

[kovazub94]

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

SKA has time to match but I doubt it since they loaned him to CSKA for the season. They seem to have no desire to get him back. Playing in Cherepovets is a good move for Rykov.

 

[nyr2k2]

Really disappointing how it ended up with Rykov, I thought he could be a decent player for us. He had that ankle injury and then the situation created by COVID basically ended his chances here. Too bad. I mean he would have been passed sooner or later anyway, but it still sucks.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Really disappointing how it ended up with Rykov, I thought he could be a decent player for us. He had that ankle injury and then the situation created by COVID basically ended his chances here. Too bad. I mean he would have been passed sooner or later anyway, but it still sucks.

Yeah but this is what we've talked about. There were going to be casualties with so many D prospects. Rykov is the first one. There will be more.

Time will tell whether that's Hájek, Reunanen, Jones, Miller, Lundkvist, Robertson, Schneider or Skinner but eventually, this team will have to move on from half these guys

 

[nyr2k2]

Yeah but this is what we've talked about. There were going to be casualties with so many D prospects. Rykov is the first one. There will be more.

Time will tell whether that's Hájek, Reunanen, Jones, Miller, Lundkvist, Robertson, Schneider or Skinner but eventually, this team will have to move on from half these guys

I understand, it's just disappointing that Rykov never had a real opportunity to show what he could do. Of course we'll have to move on from several of the guys in the system, but it's always nice to know what you have so that you can make a truly informed decision. Now I was never that high on Rykov, but as I said, it would have been nice to know what he really was.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I understand, it's just disappointing that Rykov never had a real opportunity to show what he could do. Of course we'll have to move on from several of the guys in the system, but it's always nice to know what you have so that you can make a truly informed decision. Now I was never that high on Rykov, but as I said, it would have been nice to know what he really was.

Yeah, his injury early on in 2019 really sucked the life out of his NHL career after his really good season with Sochi.