Rangers Prospect Poll (Summer 2018): #18 Prospect

[pblawr]

Virta again. Very good underlying numbers and is now taking the jump to the KHL, the clear cut 2nd best league in the world. If he excels in that league this season, he should rocket up the prospect ranks by the winter.

Add Sjalin. Similar to Chytil in being one of the youngest players in the '17 draft. Made Sweden' WJC team and got some games in (remember that Sweden is a defense factory). Another guy who is playing against men, in Sweden's second league, as an 18 year old, and was good enough to play in their qualification games for the SHL.

If he can perform at a high level this season, he is another player that I can see rising in our rankings come winter.

These are good points about Sjalin that I hadn't fully considered. You've talked me into voting for him after Pajuniemi and ahead of Keane.

In general, it seems to me like 18 year olds who have already performed decently in pro leagues should be ranked ahead of 20 year olds who haven't yet made it to pro leagues, unless there is some kind of unusual circumstance.

As far as Lindbom goes, I think the draft slot argument has some validity if you trust our scouting department (which I think has a fine track record). That said, if we took Ragnarsson with our next pick, our scouting department probably didn't have Ragnarsson very far behind Linbom on our board. In fact, I would bet that there were guys in our scouting department who were arguing to take Ragnarsson over Lindbom in round 2. The same would probably go for Keane, Pajuniemi, etc relative to Lindbom and Ragnarsson. If we had the opportunity to ask the guys in our scouting department, I bet that they would concede that ranking Lindbom relative to Ragnarsson isn't altogether straightforward and that even though they ultimately ranked Lindbom above Ragnarsson, they would understand someone else preferring Ragnarsson to Lindbom.

I tend to vote my personal opinion in these things (otherwise, what's the point?) and I just feel like goalies are very difficult to evaluate / project (especially when they are 17 and still in a junior league). Furthermore, it seems to me like the threshold for goalies to add value at the NHL level is higher than it is for other positions. So for those reasons, I end up discounting goalies relative to prospects at other positions and tend to have them lower in my rankings.

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

Barron, add Gilmour

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Add Huska

 

[nyr2k2]

On Sjalin, he played in 4 of the 11 qualification games for his Allsvenskan team. He was also scratched a number of times and played a good amount of games with the J20 squad. So, his season was reasonably good from what I have read, but he's not yet a mainstay in the Allsvenskan and is no lock to play the year there this season. He'll only be 19 to start the year, however, so he has plenty of time to develop. Still quite a bit of an unknown, IMO.

 

[eco's bones]

Lindqvist. Bigras.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Add Pajuniemi

 

[pblawr]

On Sjalin, he played in 4 of the 11 qualification games for his Allsvenskan team. He was also scratched a number of times and played a good amount of games with the J20 squad. So, his season was reasonably good from what I have read, but he's not yet a mainstay in the Allsvenskan and is no lock to play the year there this season. He'll only be 19 to start the year, however, so he has plenty of time to develop. Still quite a bit of an unknown, IMO.

Digging into Sjalin vs Keane a little more...

It seems obvious to me that Ragnarsson should be ranked ahead of Sjalin. They were born 20 days apart, but Ragnarsson stuck in the Allsvenskan this year, whereas Sjalin went down to the SEL for part of the season, and Ragnarsson scored at more than twice the rate that Sjalin did (although Sjalin did get 3 games on the Swedish U20 team, which passed over Ragnarsson).

I am starting to tilt back to Keane over Sjalin. Keane is 2 months older than Sjalin, so they're basically the same age. Sjalin played most of his games in the Allsvenskan this year, and while his stats were nothing to write home about, he seems to be establishing himself in a pro league. He also did get chosen to play on the Swedish U20 team for a few games, as mentioned above. Keane did really well in the OHL this year. He was the #1 defender on a team that won a playoff series and scored 0.7 ppg. He was a finalist for the Max Kaminsky award for the best defender in the OHL. He was named the top defensive defender in the Eastern Conference in OHL coaches poll. You still have to worry about the transition to a pro league with Keane (which can really be tough, as we've seen with Gropp), but based on his awards, he seems very solid defensively and I think he has offensive upside that Sjalin doesn't. At this point, my bias is to go with upside over safety, and it seems to me like Keane has more upside than Sjalin does, even Sjalin has less of a question mark about being able to adjust to a pro league than Keane does.

What's confusing to me after reviewing this, is how Day got voted in ahead of Keane. They both played in the OHL this year. Although Day is a year and a half older than Keane, Keane was a finalist for the Max Kaminsky award for the best defender in the OHL and Day wasn't. Keane was ranked as the best defensive defender in the Eastern Conference by OHL coaches while Day didn't get any recognition. Day did score at a higher rate than Keane this year, but Keane scored at a higher rate this year than Day did last year (Day would have still been a half year older than Keane). Furthermore, Keane was also voted the most improved player in the Eastern Conference by OHL coaches, while Day spent his 5th year in the OHL. So Keane seems to be both a better defender and a better point producer at a younger age than Day while Keane is also improving more rapidly. It seems to me like that should make him the clearly better prospect.

 

[nyr2k2]

Digging into Sjalin vs Keane a little more...

It seems obvious to me that Ragnarsson should be ranked ahead of Sjalin. They were born 20 days apart, but Ragnarsson stuck in the Allsvenskan this year, whereas Sjalin went down to the SEL for part of the season, and Ragnarsson scored at more than twice the rate that Sjalin did (although Sjalin did get 3 games on the Swedish U20 team, which passed over Ragnarsson).

I am starting to tilt back to Keane over Sjalin. Keane is 2 months older than Sjalin, so they're basically the same age. Sjalin played most of his games in the Allsvenskan this year, and while his stats were nothing to write home about, he seems to be establishing himself in a pro league. He also did get chosen to play on the Swedish U20 team for a few games, as mentioned above. Keane did really well in the OHL this year. He was the #1 defender on a team that won a playoff series and scored 0.7 ppg. He was a finalist for the Max Kaminsky award for the best defender in the OHL. He was named the top defensive defender in the Eastern Conference in OHL coaches poll. You still have to worry about the transition to a pro league with Keane (which can really be tough, as we've seen with Gropp), but based on his awards, he seems very solid defensively and I think he has offensive upside that Sjalin doesn't. At this point, my bias is to go with upside over safety, and it seems to me like Keane has more upside than Sjalin does, even Sjalin has less of a question mark about being able to adjust to a pro league than Keane does.

What's confusing to me after reviewing this, is how Day got voted in ahead of Keane. They both played in the OHL this year. Although Day is a year and a half older than Keane, Keane was a finalist for the Max Kaminsky award for the best defender in the OHL and Day wasn't. Keane was ranked as the best defensive defender in the Eastern Conference by OHL coaches while Day didn't get any recognition. Day did score at a higher rate than Keane this year, but Keane scored at a higher rate this year than Day did last year (Day would have still been a half year older than Keane). Furthermore, Keane was also voted the most improved player in the Eastern Conference by OHL coaches, while Day spent his 5th year in the OHL. So Keane seems to be both a better defender and a better point producer at a younger age than Day while Keane is also improving more rapidly. It seems to me like that should make him the clearly better prospect.

Nice analysis.

One other thing on Sjalin, I think it was @ManUtdTobbe that posted about his impressive Corsi stats to start the year. Don't remember the particular stats, and I'm not a huge Corsi guy in general, but it was impressive regardless.

 

[Let Blaine Die]

Barron, add Huska.

 

[Fitzy]

Over the years we've done a better job ranking the top 15 prospects than the organization has.

 

[eco's bones]

Over the years we've done a better job ranking the top 15 prospects than the organization has.

I don't know about that. I have a number of issues with this poll already......but FWIW after 12. Rykov we have another 30 some guys to look at and a good 20 + of them could rank anywhere between 13 and 35. It's hard to rank guys onto the list who you really haven't followed before such as Meskanen, Lindqvist, Bigras. A guy like Nieves is more likely to become an NHL player (albeit as a 4th liner probably) than a lot of guys that are going to rank above him. The poll after the WJC's will probably be a more accurate assessment than this one.

I think the first 12 on the list are the really solid guys---after that it turns into kind of a crapshoot.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Barron add Keane

 

[Edge]

Interesting note about the Kaminsky Award — the Rangers had three past winners play for them last season: Staal, ADA and Sproul.

 

[Gospel of Prospal]

I mean...I know Ragnarsson was rated higher by draft experts, but shouldn't Lindbom be above him on the list?

 

[Edge]

I think you can make a case for a lot of guys being ahead of other guys.

Lindbom could very well be a riser as we see him more and in different situations.

But goalies do tend to be ranked a little lower based on the nature of the position. Usually.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

I mean...I know Ragnarsson was rated higher by draft experts, but shouldn't Lindbom be above him on the list?

It's an interesting thing for sure.

I remember right after the 2013 draft, we ranked our 3rd rounders Buch - Duclair - Tambellini; the exact opposite of how the NYR just picked them. Thought it was odd at the time, but proved to be a good call by this board in hindsight.

 

[n8]

still voting on a certain Scandanavian. add Fontaine.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Digging into Sjalin vs Keane a little more...

It seems obvious to me that Ragnarsson should be ranked ahead of Sjalin. They were born 20 days apart, but Ragnarsson stuck in the Allsvenskan this year, whereas Sjalin went down to the SEL for part of the season, and Ragnarsson scored at more than twice the rate that Sjalin did (although Sjalin did get 3 games on the Swedish U20 team, which passed over Ragnarsson).

I am starting to tilt back to Keane over Sjalin. Keane is 2 months older than Sjalin, so they're basically the same age. Sjalin played most of his games in the Allsvenskan this year, and while his stats were nothing to write home about, he seems to be establishing himself in a pro league. He also did get chosen to play on the Swedish U20 team for a few games, as mentioned above. Keane did really well in the OHL this year. He was the #1 defender on a team that won a playoff series and scored 0.7 ppg. He was a finalist for the Max Kaminsky award for the best defender in the OHL. He was named the top defensive defender in the Eastern Conference in OHL coaches poll. You still have to worry about the transition to a pro league with Keane (which can really be tough, as we've seen with Gropp), but based on his awards, he seems very solid defensively and I think he has offensive upside that Sjalin doesn't. At this point, my bias is to go with upside over safety, and it seems to me like Keane has more upside than Sjalin does, even Sjalin has less of a question mark about being able to adjust to a pro league than Keane does.

What's confusing to me after reviewing this, is how Day got voted in ahead of Keane. They both played in the OHL this year. Although Day is a year and a half older than Keane, Keane was a finalist for the Max Kaminsky award for the best defender in the OHL and Day wasn't. Keane was ranked as the best defensive defender in the Eastern Conference by OHL coaches while Day didn't get any recognition. Day did score at a higher rate than Keane this year, but Keane scored at a higher rate this year than Day did last year (Day would have still been a half year older than Keane). Furthermore, Keane was also voted the most improved player in the Eastern Conference by OHL coaches, while Day spent his 5th year in the OHL. So Keane seems to be both a better defender and a better point producer at a younger age than Day while Keane is also improving more rapidly. It seems to me like that should make him the clearly better prospect.

Hype train is still VERY strong on Day for some people. Some posters still think if everything all of a sudden clicks for him that he will turn into a top pair dman in the NHL....

 

[WeRa]

Barron. Add Hughes

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Nice analysis.

One other thing on Sjalin, I think it was @ManUtdTobbe that posted about his impressive Corsi stats to start the year. Don't remember the particular stats, and I'm not a huge Corsi guy in general, but it was impressive regardless.

Själin had a solid year in the underlying numbers, his issue was that he first got sick and then got a concussion, and that's when Leksand started winning… He was in a secure top 4 role before the injury, mostly RD on the top pairing but after that he was mostly a 7th D-man... That the problem i have with Leksand, they buy their way out of slumps, also Filip Johansson emerged right around that time aswell and secured one of Själins slots.

Ragnarsson had good underlying numbers too (i don't have them infront of me right now but i tweeted about them at some point).

I do agree that Ragnarsson should be ahead of Själin at this Point in time even though i still see a slightly higher ceiling in Själin, but losing more or less half a season like Själin did is hardly good for his development.

 

[NYR Viper]

Barron add Fontaine

 

[Gospel of Prospal]

It's an interesting thing for sure.

I remember right after the 2013 draft, we ranked our 3rd rounders Buch - Duclair - Tambellini; the exact opposite of how the NYR just picked them. Thought it was odd at the time, but proved to be a good call by this board in hindsight.

Fair, but shouldn't we put more weight on how the Rangers view the prospects than how armchair scouts view them?

 

[nyr2k2]

Fair, but shouldn't we put more weight on how the Rangers view the prospects than how armchair scouts view them?

If you want to. The fun thing about our poll is that we have never tried to define voting criteria. Some guys vote primarily on upside, others on readiness, a combination thereof, organizational need, draft position relative to other guys, etc. Bacon tried to implement a "pick the guy you think is most valuable if other teams were drafting our players" or something like that, but I don't think anyone followed that.

As far as Lindbom, as I mentioned in discussing this earlier in the thread, his rankings were all over the place. McKenzie was the only guy that had him with a second round grade, and Hockey Prospectus had him 91st. The rest of the places had him way lower. He was a surprise pick in the second, not just on organizational need but also by where most places ranked him. So, it's not just people here that are lower on him than the team.

There's also the fact that we (this board, most of HF in general) tend to rate goalies lower. I mean if you consider upside and accomplishments, shouldn't Shesterkin be #1? He's arguably the best goalie prospect in the world and ends up behind guys that are really good prospects, but not really close to the best at their position.

So, there are a lot of factors that play into it. I generally think that the confluence of opinions on how to rank guys results in pretty decent overall rankings here.

EDIT: I thought Shesterkin was third, not second. But still, he's usually behind guys that he probably shouldn't be. But, goalie.

 

[darko]

It's a balance between upside/floor and likelihood of reaching it.

 

[eco's bones]

If you want to. The fun thing about our poll is that we have never tried to define voting criteria. Some guys vote primarily on upside, others on readiness, a combination thereof, organizational need, draft position relative to other guys, etc. Bacon tried to implement a "pick the guy you think is most valuable if other teams were drafting our players" or something like that, but I don't think anyone followed that.

As far as Lindbom, as I mentioned in discussing this earlier in the thread, his rankings were all over the place. McKenzie was the only guy that had him with a second round grade, and Hockey Prospectus had him 91st. The rest of the places had him way lower. He was a surprise pick in the second, not just on organizational need but also by where most places ranked him. So, it's not just people here that are lower on him than the team.

There's also the fact that we (this board, most of HF in general) tend to rate goalies lower. I mean if you consider upside and accomplishments, shouldn't Shesterkin be #1? He's arguably the best goalie prospect in the world and ends up behind guys that are really good prospects, but not really close to the best at their position.

So, there are a lot of factors that play into it. I generally think that the confluence of opinions on how to rank guys results in pretty decent overall rankings here.

EDIT: I thought Shesterkin was third, not second. But still, he's usually behind guys that he probably shouldn't be. But, goalie.

The Hockey News had Lindbom as a late 2nd rounder. No. 59. He was their third goalie behind Skarek (49) and Annunen (50) and just ahead of Gravel (62). They mentioned he was top goalie at the U-18's. That he's calm and rises to the occasion and plays well in big games. They also mention that he didn't have a particularly great year with his Djurgarden Jr. team. He's 6'2 now and 185 lbs. That's not bad.

He wasn't the choice I would have made at all.....but I didn't really think we needed any goalies. Apparently this was either a BPA player or throw Allaire another bone goalie or the Rangers have I think at least a couple ex-goalies who scout for them or some kind of combination of all that. Looking towards the day when Henrik is no longer with us except maybe in spirit I suppose. I thought Georgiev looked great for us last year and Shesterkin is even better?--and then Huska's a pretty good prospect. Why did we need more goalies? If the Rangers scouts spent as much time worrying about who's going to be our 1st line center or #1 D rather than fussing over the goalie position I think we would be a lot better off. Not that that's Lindbom's fault or that we shouldn't hope he becomes another Shesterkin. Hopefully he does.