Proposal: Rangers-Avalanche

[Calad]

Even if it's "just" two 2nds the acquisition of Smith would mean that someone like Zadorov would have to leave to make room, so it's not worth it at all. Colorado doesn't even have a 2020 2nd round pick currently either.

Regarding the prospect tiers, there's a fan vote on the Colorado boards which has thus far ranked the prospects as follows:


The vote for #8 prospect is currently ongoing:

• D - Drew Helleson - 2019 #47 ----------------- 32 vote(s) 31.7%
• D - Nicolas Meloche - 2015 #40 - (5) --------- 47 vote(s) 46.5%
• RW - Nikolai Kovalenko - 2018 #171 - (13) --- 14 vote(s) 13.9%
• LW - Sampo Ranta - 2018 #78 - (11) ---------- 0 vote(s) 0.0%
• LW - AJ Greer - 2015 #39 - (8) ---------------- 8 vote(s) 7.9%
• C - Igor Shyvrev - 2017 #125 - (7) ------------- 0 vote(s) 0.0%
• LW - Cam Morrison - 2016 #40 - (14) -------- 0 vote(s) 0.0%

What I think is clear from the results above that the prospect tiers (including 2020-2021 picks) are more or less like this:

A+ prospects

• Makar (2017 #4) - RD
• Byram (2019 #4) - LD

A- prospects

• Newhook (2019 #16) - C
• Timmins (2017 #32) - RD
• Jost (2016 #10) - C
• Kaut (2018 #16) - RW
• Bowers (2017 #28) - C ***
• COL 2020 1st
• COL 2021 1st

*** Note: It's arguable whether Bowers is an A- prospect or a B+ due to the apparent tier-gap between Kaut and Bowers in the vote above, but I put him as an A- as well because he's a former 1st round pick and because the staff seem really high on him. For example, in this article on Bowers which was published last week there's a quote by Alan Hepple (Avs' Director of Amateur Scouting) from when Bowers was acquired in the Duchene trade, where he confirms that they considered Bowers to be a 1st rounder:

“We liked him his draft year. That was the one thing. We knew we weren’t going to get him where we were picking. He was going to be gone before our second pick. But we liked him.”​

B prospects

• Kamenev (2014 #42) - C
• Meloche (2015 #40) - RD
• Hellesson (2019 #47) - RD
• Kovalenko (2018 #171) - RW
• Greer (2015 #39) - LW
• COL 2021 2nd

C prospects

• Ranta, Shyvrev, Morisson, Henry, Werner, Annunen, Weiss, Saigeon, etc
• TOR 2020 3rd
• COL 2021 3rd

Now, going back to what you were saying about "the prospect is also less than a prospect tier we'd ask without Smith."...

Kreider at the deadline will certainly not bring back TWO A-prospects, which would be equivalent to two 1st round picks. That is, if the 2020 1st is included for Kreider it's unlikely that another A-prospect like Bowers is included in the trade. And since Colorado is entering "win-now" mode the preference would definitely be to use the 2020 1st rather than a prospect like Bowers who is close to making an impact.

So realistically, you'd probably be looking at the 2020 COL 1st plus one of the B prospects. Maybe throw in your choice of a C-prospect too if that gets it done.

Feel free to choose other B or C prospects to suit Rangers' positional needs, but just as an example, that could be:

Kreider <----> 2020 COL 1st + Meloche + Ranta
​

To put that in perspective, as a rental that's effectively a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for a pending UFA given where Meloche (#40) and Ranta (#78) were picked in their respective draft years.

If you'd like to add a conditional pick based on whether or not Kreider resigns with Colorado, replace Ranta/C prospect with a conditional 2021 COL 3rd (which becomes COL 2021 2nd if Kreider resigns). So that's:

As a rental:

Kreider <----> 2020 COL 1st + Meloche + 2021 3rd*
​

If resigned:

Kreider <----> 2020 COL 1st + Meloche + 2021 2nd*​

Again, that's effectively 1st + 2nd + 3rd as a rental, and if resigned that's effectively 1st and 2 2nds, either of which would surely get accepted by Rangers, don't you think?

I'd want Kaut Bowers or maybe Kamenev. Rangers have way too many D in the pipeline. Bowers might be a big target for the Rangers as he played under Quinn at BU

 

[Richard88]

Nobody is giving up on anybody, it's just an apples/oranges trade idea. Rangers get a talented C -- who is a few years younger, but not quite put it all together yet -- who can fight for that 2C spot. Avalanche get a 20-goal winger, who is still improving, can fit nicely next to MacKinnon or Kadri as their title window starts to open this season, and honestly won't break the bank on this next contract.

The main concern with Kreider's next contract for the Avs would be term, rather than AAV.

Sakic seems to have lined up numerous contracts to coincide with Mackinnon's big raise in 2023, given that Johnson, Donskoi, and Compher all hit free agency that summer too. Newhook will likely come off his ELC then too.

With that 2023 summer in mind, giving Kreider a 5 year deal next summer when he's 29 could become a headache in 2023 if he doesn't age well and has 2 years left at 32.

That said, perhaps his contract could be front-loaded in terms of salary and bonuses to make him more tradeable beyond 2023 if needed. Limiting the term to 5 years would be ideal in that sense too.

 

[JC704]

The main concern with Kreider's next contract for the Avs will be term, rather than AAV.

Sakic seems to have lined up numerous contracts to coincide with Mackinnon's big raise in 2023, given that Johnson, Donskoi, and Compher all hit free agency that summer too. Newhook will likely come off his ELC then too.

With that 2023 summer in mind, giving Kreider a 5 year deal next summer when he's 29 could become a headache in 2023 if he doesn't age well and has 2 years left at 32.

That said, perhaps his contract could be front-loaded in terms of salary and bonuses to make him more tradeable beyond 2023 if needed. Limiting the term to 5 years would be ideal in that sense too.

Ah, I see you got confused. I was mentioning my initial offer for Buchnevich lol. The Avalanche can theoretically pay him a good contract for the next 3/4 years ($3.5-3.75 million), and still be in very good shape to stay under the salary cap. He fits their time range better than Kreider.

Kreider at this point won't get a first-round pick until closer to the deadline when teams get anxious. He gets a good prospect (no guarantee) and a second in a trade at the moment. The Rangers will get more for Buch, which is why he should be shopped.

 

[Richard88]

Ah, I see you got confused. I was mentioning my initial offer for Buchnevich lol. The Avalanche can theoretically pay him a good contract for the next 3/4 years ($3.5-3.75 million), and still be in very good shape to stay under the salary cap. He fits their time range better than Kreider.

Kreider at this point won't get a first-round pick until closer to the deadline when teams get anxious. He gets a good prospect (no guarantee) and a second in a trade at the moment. The Rangers will get more for Buch, which is why he should be shopped.

Ahhh, my bad. Thanks for clarifying!

I totally agree that the timeline fits much better with Buchnevich.

Regarding Kreider, I think he would fetch a 1st, albeit only one likely to be a late 1st from a team that looks likely to go deep in the playoffs (which is what I assume would be the case for Colorado if they're trading for Kreider at the deadline). A late 1st + B prospect seems reasonable to me, plus a long-shot prospect or conditional 2nd or 3rd if he resigns.

 

[Perratrooper]

I guess you could say Kadri is a better 2C than Z-bad cause Z is a 1C...?

 

[Perratrooper]

I'd want Kaut Bowers or maybe Kamenev. Rangers have way too many D in the pipeline. Bowers might be a big target for the Rangers as he played under Quinn at BU

I doubt Colorado would trade two A prospects without an extension in place for Kreider. I am no expert, but I think the assets would be better spent on a player with term.

 

[Calad]

I doubt Colorado would trade two A prospects without an extension in place for Kreider. I am no expert, but I think the assets would be better spent on a player with term.

Perhaps. I'd imagine Buch for a similar deal if you guys prefer him instead. A trade this summer of Kreider + Fast for 2020 1st (Top 10 protected) + Bowers + Cond 3rd (becomes 2nd if COL makes conference finals). No need to add conditional picks based on resigning Kreider so you don't feel bad about acquiring him then signing an extension.

 

[Avaholic29]

Perhaps. I'd imagine Buch for a similar deal if you guys prefer him instead. A trade this summer of Kreider + Fast for 2020 1st (Top 10 protected) + Bowers + Cond 3rd (becomes 2nd if COL makes conference finals). No need to add conditional picks based on resigning Kreider so you don't feel bad about acquiring him then signing an extension.

No need for the conditional pick at all in that deal. Kreider would return less now than at the deadline for a team in a race for the cup. 1st and Bowers im not entirely sold on either. 1st and kamenev or something closer to that

 

[Avaholic29]

Ahhh, my bad. Thanks for clarifying!

I totally agree that the timeline fits much better with Buchnevich.

Regarding Kreider, I think he would fetch a 1st, albeit only one likely to be a late 1st from a team that looks likely to go deep in the playoffs (which is what I assume would be the case for Colorado if they're trading for Kreider at the deadline). A late 1st + B prospect seems reasonable to me, plus a long-shot prospect or conditional 2nd or 3rd if he resigns.

1st + Kamenev/Meloche + 2021 4th if he resigns

No reason Kreider should return much more than Hayes, Hayes plays the more sought after position and returned a late first and lemeiux

 

[Calad]

No need for the conditional pick at all in that deal. Kreider would return less now than at the deadline for a team in a race for the cup. 1st and Bowers im not entirely sold on either. 1st and kamenev or something closer to that

Kreider + Fast for 1st + Bowers then?

Fast is a great 3rd liner checking forward, our top PKer, good hockey sense, chips in ~30 points, and a great teammate to boot. He's had appearances in the top 6 because he easily compliments anyone he plays with, he just isn't what you would describe as dynamic. I'm not sure if the Avs are looking for this kind of player, but great depth wins championships, and this would be some added value to bridge the gap between Kamenev and Bowers.

 

[Richard88]

Kreider + Fast for 1st + Bowers then?

Fast is a great 3rd liner checking forward, our top PKer, good hockey sense, chips in ~30 points, and a great teammate to boot. He's had appearances in the top 6 because he easily compliments anyone he plays with, he just isn't what you would describe as dynamic. I'm not sure if the Avs are looking for this kind of player, but great depth wins championships, and this would be some added value to bridge the gap between Kamenev and Bowers.

Colorado aren't looking for a player like Fast. They've already got Burakovsky; Compher; Donskoi; Wilson; Calvert; and Nieto, along with Kaut, Kamenev, Kovalenko, and Bowers in the pipeline who could fill the same role going forwards but on ELC's. The PK will be Nieto/Compher/Bellemare/Calvert, all of whom are excellent PKers.

Rather than acquiring Fast and resigning him before UFA in 2020 I'd rather just resign Nieto (also UFA in 2020), as he's paced 30 points numerous times and also elevates his production in the playoffs (18 points in 41 games). Nieto earns about the same and is a year younger.

Needless to say, I'd rather leave Fast out of the trade and include a lesser player than Bowers. Meloche or Kamenev for example.

 

[JC704]

If Kreider is hypothetically traded to the Avalanche, I think it would look a lot like Kaut/Bowers + 2020 second-round pick.

Can't see Sakic going higher than that.

 

[Calad]

Colorado aren't looking for a player like Fast. They've already got Burakovsky; Compher; Donskoi; Wilson; Calvert; and Nieto, along with Kaut, Kamenev, Kovalenko, and Bowers in the pipeline who could fill the same role going forwards but on ELC's. The PK will be Nieto/Compher/Bellemare/Calvert, all of whom are excellent PKers.

Rather than acquiring Fast and resigning him before UFA in 2020 I'd rather just resign Nieto (also UFA in 2020), as he's paced 30 points numerous times and also elevates his production in the playoffs (18 points in 41 games). Nieto earns about the same and is a year younger.

Needless to say, I'd rather leave Fast out of the trade and include a lesser player than Bowers. Meloche or Kamenev for example.

Understood. So what would you be willing to trade for an extended Kreider then?

If Kreider is hypothetically traded to the Avalanche, I think it would look a lot like Kaut/Bowers + 2020 second-round pick.

Can't see Sakic going higher than that.

Avs dont have their 2020 2nd.

 

[Ryan Pat80]

Why can't two fan bases ever talk about a trade without getting childish and nasty?

This was going fine until the much-used hard pass comment from fellow Ranger fan.

The fact is that most posters know so little about players from other organizations, there is no basis to form an honest opinion.

Regardless, the conversations would be much more enjoyable if the 8 year old snarkiness was saved for responses to truly outrageous posts.

Couldn't agree more. I really just try to read the comments and keep quiet when it comes to general trade proposals. Some are a "hard pass", but waaaayyyy too many people speak in such a matter of fact tone when it comes to both team's players, knowing full well they don't watch enough outside their market. Thus, we get these argumentative, going around in circles type posters. Popcorn, weed, music and sit back and read lol.

 

[Richard88]

Understood. So what would you be willing to trade for an extended Kreider then?

Avs dont have their 2020 2nd.

It depends what else is involved in the package.

If it's 2020 COL 1st + Kamenev, then I'd throw in a 3rd conditional on Kreider resigning.

• Rental:

Kreider for COL 2020 1st + Kamenev​

• Resigned:

Kreider for COL 2020 1st + Kamenev + 2021 3rd

​

If it's COL 2020 1st + Meloche then I'd probably offer a 2021 2nd if he resigned.

• Rental:

Kreider for COL 2020 1st + Meloche + C prospect of your choosing​

• Resigned:

Kreider for COL 2020 1st + Meloche + COL 2021 2nd​

 

[Calad]

Not adding much for the extension I see

 

[Richard88]

Not adding much for the extension I see

Adding a 2nd or 3rd seems like more than enough given what else is in the package.

 

[Perratrooper]

Perhaps. I'd imagine Buch for a similar deal if you guys prefer him instead. A trade this summer of Kreider + Fast for 2020 1st (Top 10 protected) + Bowers + Cond 3rd (becomes 2nd if COL makes conference finals). No need to add conditional picks based on resigning Kreider so you don't feel bad about acquiring him then signing an extension.

I’d be more of a fan of 2020 first top 10 protected+Kamenev+third for Kreider and call it a day?