OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: The Condemned of Altoona Continued

[TNT87]

The OF is absolutely on fire at the plate. It's like they are telling each other to "top this" and then they do.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Brewers ended up winning, but I think in any case, eyes should be on the prize of the division. We're still only barely on the fringe, but the Cubs are scuffling a little bit, and so the catapult might just continue, which means that the rest of the season story-projection pretty much gets rewritten post-deadline.

Obviously, the WC is much more feasible and it makes sense to stay soberly focused on it, but one thing that's also different this season is that the other division teams are much less consistent. This also includes us, but I can still remember all those times in 2015 where nothing we could do would even make up 0.5 games.

Regardless of which race to focus on, we're set up for a dramatic and meaningful two months of nervewracking games. Can't ask for much more drama in regular season baseball.

Yeah and the whole month of August is against teams we are competing with for a playoff spot.

3 games back, they control their own destiny at this point.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Stats of the day...

Since 6/17 Polanco has a .317 avg, 1.125 OPS and a 194 wRC+
Since 7/4 Marte has a .394 avg, 1.165 OPS and a 214 wRC+
Since 6/26 Dickerson has a .392 avg, 1.187 OPS and a 217 wRC+

Insane

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Also dont know if its been mentioned but apparently we have interest in adding Keon Kela from the Rangers. Would be a pretty good setup man add IMO

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I didn't go back and check, but this is exactly what I had in mind when I was saying how incredible it is that we've made up so much ground. Sometimes timing and luck account for a whole lot.

Kela could be a good pickup. I imagine that he'd cost a decent amount, but wouldn't involve top prospects. I think he's had some elbow issues, which is worrying, but if we manage to acquire a real shut down bullpen arm, it will be hard to nitpick too much. I like the idea of Conley a lot, even though he's trending in the wrong direction for wanting to acquire him at the deadline. One thing with the non-top shelf trades is that a lot of it might come down to what an external team values vs what the front office really values.

Also, with how much ink I've spilled on the almost infinitely unlikely scenario of going after deGrom, it's probably worth pumping the brakes a little bit just in terms of what the Mets will decide to do. Their whole season is pretty much in shambles, so it could just make sense to sit on their hands and draw up a plan in the offseason. I am a little hopeful that they might want to signal a rebuild is coming to the fans, but that alone won't push them to move deGrom. I'd probably also be in favor of pushing the kind of package I was floating for deGrom into the mix for Archer, although it's a lot easier to be hypothetically cavalier for deGrom, since he's easily one of the top 10 pitchers in all of baseball.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I've been reading the most recent comments from Huntington. Don't expect much. Reading between the lines it almost seems like they're in shock at the recent winning streak (I think most of us are) and aren't going to commit any resources to really going after difference makers. 2 weeks ago I think Huntington was gearing up to sell the shit out of this roster. Kind of hard to do that now, when you're riding an 11 game win streak and right back in the thick of the playoff race.

Kela is a fine back end guy, but again, if bringing in an 8th inning guy is the boldest move you're going to make, just do nothing. I'd rather the team sat on its hands that make 1-2 minimal type deals that don't really push us forward. Same shit I've been saying.

If we REALLY wanted to, we could get Degrom and Archer. Our prospect pool is good/deep enough to do it, but the usual suspects won't ever sign off on something that bold. And I don't want to hear about cost. Neither of those players break the bank. At all.

Also, what does it say about Austin Meadows playing the bulk of his games during the absolute putrid stretch and then being sent down only to watch the Bucs go on a tear? Won't be seeing him back anytime soon unless somebody gets hurt.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

I've been reading the most recent comments from Huntington. Don't expect much. Reading between the lines it almost seems like they're in shock at the recent winning streak (I think most of us are) and aren't going to commit any resources to really going after difference makers. 2 weeks ago I think Huntington was gearing up to sell the **** out of this roster. Kind of hard to do that now, when you're riding an 11 game win streak and right back in the thick of the playoff race.

Kela is a fine back end guy, but again, if bringing in an 8th inning guy is the boldest move you're going to make, just do nothing. I'd rather the team sat on its hands that make 1-2 minimal type deals that don't really push us forward. Same **** I've been saying.

If we REALLY wanted to, we could get Degrom and Archer. Our prospect pool is good/deep enough to do it, but the usual suspects won't ever sign off on something that bold. And I don't want to hear about cost. Neither of those players break the bank. At all.

Also, what does it say about Austin Meadows playing the bulk of his games during the absolute putrid stretch and then being sent down only to watch the Bucs go on a tear? Won't be seeing him back anytime soon unless somebody gets hurt.

Thats just silly, if you can get a Kela for a reasonable cost you do it. He solidifies your pen fro the next 4 years.

Now you just in Neverland, Archer alone will cost a top prospect a good 2nd prospect and some lottery tickets. IF DeGrom gets traded (and thats a huge if) you are emptying out your top end prospects to get him.

His career line is 2.77/2.94/3.09 and this year its 1.71/2.27/2.77 with 2 additional years of control after this one. Hell im all for throwing their hat into the ring if he is available but get back to reality. If you trade for DeGrom let alone both the next 2 years are your last stand.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't disagree with you (edit: this is to IE) in spirit, or at least certainly not as much as usual, but I do think getting Kela would be significant. The Rangers also have a pretty solid lefty in Jake Diekman on an expiring contract. Getting a middling reliever would be somewhat of a showman move, even if in general it would be fine and cost almost nothing.

Kela would probably cost a meaningful chip or two, and while it wouldn't make a drastic-seeming difference, he's been lock-down enough that it would really firm up the bullpen. You'd basically have two closers for the 8th and 9th innings, allowing a number of guys to be used situationally. It would more definitively shorten the game to 6 innings, and perhaps even closer to 5+, which as a trickle-effect bolsters the rotation. In fact, the more I think about it, the more I like the Kela+Diekman package idea.

However, if we do end up right in the divisional mix, I agree that it isn't enough. Even setting aside the division for a moment, in my view we're better positioned than ever before to make the blockbuster trade, but the pieces that would need to align are not the things that happen for this team. Let's also just set aside the pipe dream of deGrom. We could move the package of Keller, Meadows ++ for Archer, overpay somewhat to sign Dickerson to a three year deal at 30 million, and pretty much have this team locked in for three stabs. The situation just seems different than the kinds of question marks plaguing past teams - if anything, you might project growth from Moran next year, and while it's a big prospect cost, the amount of young, controllable talent already in the mix makes those players more expendable than before.

I know we probably differ on this point, but I see the obstacle as more Huntington than Nutting here. Of course, the whole discussing is predicated on the Mets or Rays being interested in the package we are floating, but assuming they are, I think it's Huntington that is too conservative about his prospects. Granted, the reason that he is like that is because he knows that he has to manufacture talent because Nutting won't spend for it, but I guess this analysis is why I'm a little bit more irrationally optimistic about the slight chances for the blockbuster. Where Nutting causes a problem would be the idea of extending Dickerson to supplement moving Meadows, but I don't even know that it's a big stumbling block. The actual financial cost of deGrom or Archer isn't really much at all, and even if we just let Dickerson play out his contact or flipped him at the deadline, it's possible that Reynolds or Martin could be an adequate everyday OF.

So with those things in mind, maybe Huntington makes the major play to get a front line starter. I think it's definitely right that his comments were about preparation for a sell off, but I also think Huntington is not dogmatic in his approach, and the fact is, things have drastically changed since those comments were made.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Might need a CGSO from Taillon today to keep the streak going. Pretty sad lineup.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'm not saying Kela isn't a quality player. He is. But we see what good/great RP's go for. Unless we're trading somebody outside the top 10 in our farm system, why not use premium prospects to bring in premium talent, especially at impact positions, like SP?

Honestly I want Huntington and company to say f*** it! Go for it!

Nova (or another current roster player), Keller, Tucker, Luis Escobar, and say Mason Martin probably gets you close to Degrom or all the way there.

You're telling me that we shouldn't be all over that? Degrom is controlled for 2 more years beyond this. He's a legit front line starter. He's the type of guy who can go toe to toe with anyone and you feel pretty solid about your chances. I'd ask Huntington and company what the issue REALLY is? Cost? He's 7.5M this year. Hardly earth shattering. He'll absolutely get a big raise through arbitration next year, i'd wager double to 15M give or take. Again, that's not an amount the Pirates can't afford, especially if you can hold onto Newman and move somebody like Mercer and another multi million dollar contract.

Archer is an even better grab because he's controlled for 3 more years beyond this at a very reasonable rate. And given his stats lately, I think he can be had for less than he would have gone 1-2 years ago.

Would you then trade Baz, Reynolds, Jennings, and say Will Craig for him if the Rays agreed to that kind of package?

So if you could deal Keller, Tucker, Baz, Reynolds, Jennings, Escobar, Craig, Martin give or take for 2-3 years of Degrom and Archer, would you press the no button?

The next 2 years beyond this you'd have a rotation of:

Degrom
Archer
Taillon
Musgrove
Any # of folks

If healthy, that's a rotaion that can compete for a WS, without a doubt. And you can use the draft in the next few years to restock the minor league system with fresh arms, since you'd obviously be void of real quality by shipping out Keller/Baz etc.

We can't sit around tinkering on the edges, hoping to God that all our prospects pan out. That simply doesn't work. Unless you have 3-4 straight years of picking top 3-5 and can nail them (like the Astros) the approach we've been using doesn't and won't work. I'll eat crow and say that this team is better than I thought. I predicted 90-100 losses, but we look to at least be a .500 squad. Tinkering with that won't get you to the next level. You need to take risks and that is especially true given we don't have 100M to throw around randomly.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Might need a CGSO from Taillon today to keep the streak going. Pretty sad lineup.

Yeah, it's not too surprising given the winning streak and possible Dickerson injury, but we're probably going to need to max out on whatever chances we get, and the Moran-Bell-Freese part of the lineup will be very critical.

Honestly, I'd guess that J-Hay is still dinged up a little bit, so in part there's not too much Hurdle can do, but the lineup doesn't really make much sense at all. It's probably oriented around superstition of just keeping Marte-Polanco at #2 and 3, but it would make more sense to use Marte at leadoff and try to maximize his speed, or even just put Rodriguez at leadoff and hope he's actually found his swing. Luplow is just there because Dickerson had been.

The way the streak has been going, though, Stallings is gonna like hit a grand slam in the second inning to make the score 6-0 or something. I have to miss this one live, but I'm going to watch on the delay later today and hope for an exciting pitching showdown, if nothing else.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

I'm not saying Kela isn't a quality player. He is. But we see what good/great RP's go for. Unless we're trading somebody outside the top 10 in our farm system, why not use premium prospects to bring in premium talent, especially at impact positions, like SP?

Honestly I want Huntington and company to say **** it! Go for it!

Nova (or another current roster player), Keller, Tucker, Luis Escobar, and say Mason Martin probably gets you close to Degrom or all the way there.

You're telling me that we shouldn't be all over that? Degrom is controlled for 2 more years beyond this. He's a legit front line starter. He's the type of guy who can go toe to toe with anyone and you feel pretty solid about your chances. I'd ask Huntington and company what the issue REALLY is? Cost? He's 7.5M this year. Hardly earth shattering. He'll absolutely get a big raise through arbitration next year, i'd wager double to 15M give or take. Again, that's not an amount the Pirates can't afford, especially if you can hold onto Newman and move somebody like Mercer and another multi million dollar contract.

Archer is an even better grab because he's controlled for 3 more years beyond this at a very reasonable rate. And given his stats lately, I think he can be had for less than he would have gone 1-2 years ago.

Would you then trade Baz, Reynolds, Jennings, and say Will Craig for him if the Rays agreed to that kind of package?

So if you could deal Keller, Tucker, Baz, Reynolds, Jennings, Escobar, Craig, Martin give or take for 2-3 years of Degrom and Archer, would you press the no button?

The next 2 years beyond this you'd have a rotation of:

Degrom
Archer
Taillon
Musgrove
Any # of folks

If healthy, that's a rotaion that can compete for a WS, without a doubt. And you can use the draft in the next few years to restock the minor league system with fresh arms, since you'd obviously be void of real quality by shipping out Keller/Baz etc.

We can't sit around tinkering on the edges, hoping to God that all our prospects pan out. That simply doesn't work. Unless you have 3-4 straight years of picking top 3-5 and can nail them (like the Astros) the approach we've been using doesn't and won't work. I'll eat crow and say that this team is better than I thought. I predicted 90-100 losses, but we look to at least be a .500 squad. Tinkering with that won't get you to the next level. You need to take risks and that is especially true given we don't have 100M to throw around randomly.

I dont necessarily disagree with the sentiment but IMO that pakage doesnt get you anywhere enar DeGrom. Or at least it wouldnt if i was their GM.

If im their GM i want no less than Keller and Hayes as the main two with two more quailty guys in the mix lix Reynolds and Hearn. Now a case can be made he is worth it. But you better be right. Because there tough times ahead if you dont take advantage in that 2 year window.

 

[DanielPlainview]

I think I'm more frustrated by the fact it's Luplow in LF and not Meadows. And that it's SeanRod at 2B and not Kramer or even Frazier.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, beyond the fact that it doesn't seem like there is anyone to even make decisions in New York, so no trades will happen or maybe only really small ones like Cabrera, my main fear is that Keller and Meadows aren't enough of a headliner. Certainly it wouldn't do much if the Yankees were offering Sheffield and Florial, but if the Mets do want MLB readiness, that could give our two a little bit of an edge.

The Sale trade or something like it is probably the best analogue, even though deGrom has a little less control. We don't have a prospect that's close to Moncada, although Keller is no slouch, AAA scuffle aside. The variable that's tough to judge is Meadows, whose stock had always been trending downward, but then he put up a somewhat extended great showing in MLB, maybe enough to remove some of that downward trend, and in any case, all that matters is the team who is acquiring the player's assessment.

Still, even in that case, the analogue to the Sale trade would probably be Hayes as the third piece.

I think we probably just have to ride it out. The Mets may completely change their tune once the end of the weekend is here. Fulmer and Archer are about as equally hard to predict. There's a reasonably strong chance none of them get moved. My guess is that Huntington definitely gets at least one reliever, but that his move might be another Happ situation where it comes kinda out of nowhere, except instead of a starter it's for a reliever or a mediocre starter who we will use as a reliever. Maybe there's some chance he'll go after Kela or Conley, but those guys would cost legitimate prospects, not just lottery ticket guys.

 

[TimmyD]

I'm not saying Kela isn't a quality player. He is. But we see what good/great RP's go for. Unless we're trading somebody outside the top 10 in our farm system, why not use premium prospects to bring in premium talent, especially at impact positions, like SP?

Honestly I want Huntington and company to say **** it! Go for it!

Nova (or another current roster player), Keller, Tucker, Luis Escobar, and say Mason Martin probably gets you close to Degrom or all the way there.

You're telling me that we shouldn't be all over that? Degrom is controlled for 2 more years beyond this. He's a legit front line starter. He's the type of guy who can go toe to toe with anyone and you feel pretty solid about your chances. I'd ask Huntington and company what the issue REALLY is? Cost? He's 7.5M this year. Hardly earth shattering. He'll absolutely get a big raise through arbitration next year, i'd wager double to 15M give or take. Again, that's not an amount the Pirates can't afford, especially if you can hold onto Newman and move somebody like Mercer and another multi million dollar contract.

Archer is an even better grab because he's controlled for 3 more years beyond this at a very reasonable rate. And given his stats lately, I think he can be had for less than he would have gone 1-2 years ago.

Would you then trade Baz, Reynolds, Jennings, and say Will Craig for him if the Rays agreed to that kind of package?

So if you could deal Keller, Tucker, Baz, Reynolds, Jennings, Escobar, Craig, Martin give or take for 2-3 years of Degrom and Archer, would you press the no button?

The next 2 years beyond this you'd have a rotation of:

Degrom
Archer
Taillon
Musgrove
Any # of folks

If healthy, that's a rotaion that can compete for a WS, without a doubt. And you can use the draft in the next few years to restock the minor league system with fresh arms, since you'd obviously be void of real quality by shipping out Keller/Baz etc.

We can't sit around tinkering on the edges, hoping to God that all our prospects pan out. That simply doesn't work. Unless you have 3-4 straight years of picking top 3-5 and can nail them (like the Astros) the approach we've been using doesn't and won't work. I'll eat crow and say that this team is better than I thought. I predicted 90-100 losses, but we look to at least be a .500 squad. Tinkering with that won't get you to the next level. You need to take risks and that is especially true given we don't have 100M to throw around randomly.

While I would love acquiring both guys this isn’t a video game. Also no way we hold onto Meadows if acquire one let alone both of Archer and DeGrom

 

[ImporterExporter]

I dont necessarily disagree with the sentiment but IMO that pakage doesnt get you anywhere enar DeGrom. Or at least it wouldnt if i was their GM.

If im their GM i want no less than Keller and Hayes as the main two with two more quailty guys in the mix lix Reynolds and Hearn. Now a case can be made he is worth it. But you better be right. Because there tough times ahead if you dont take advantage in that 2 year window.

OK, and I'm fine with Keller and Hayes for Degrom, with another 2-3 lesser pieces (not giving up Reynolds AND Hearn with those 2, maybe one). None of those guys are proven. None. Degrom is a proven quantity. He's exactly the type of player that can win you a WC game power on power or a decisive game 5/7. I wouldn't advocate doing it if he were a pure rental, but you get 2.5 years, so my outlook changes considerably.

Is anyone really confident this team can make a legit run, this year, next year or 2020 with Taillon as our #1? What about the 7th and 8th innings from the pen as it stands?

The lineup is good enough to do some damage. The rotation is nowhere near good enough and the pen needs at least one more dominant late inning arm, if not 2. IMHO. Pinning your hopes on a 22 year old unproven Mitch Keller is a fool's errand, espeically given his recent struggles in AAA. I trade Keller 12 times out of 10 for 2.5 years of Degrom. If you miss, you miss, but nobody could complain that the Buccos didn't go for it.

 

[ImporterExporter]

While I would love acquiring both guys this isn’t a video game. Also no way we hold onto Meadows if acquire one let alone both of Archer and DeGrom

Of course it's not. The Mets may not even like Keller or any of our other guys. But based on recent deals, Keller + 3/4 other good to solid pieces should get talks started if not pretty close. I don't think that's beeing outlandish or pandering to the Pirates side of things.

Meadows is a non starter (in a big package) given what he showed at the MLB level. Plus he was already a premium prospect anyway. Not quite Moncada but pretty damn close. If you want Meadows you're not getting much anything else on top of that. I'd absolutely consider Meadows for Degrom but the Mets can't be asking for much more than him, at least not another 2-3 top 5 prospects in our system. For instance if they wanted Keller with Meadows I'd laugh and then hang up. I'd be shocked if Degrom brought back Meadows/Keller from any team. Surely one of those and more pieces but not your top 2 prospects (and higher end ones at that).

Edit: See what we got for Gerrit Cole. You'd have to give up a bit more but Cole is a cost controlled pitcher in the same general ballpark as Degrom. But in no way did we take the Astro's top 2 prospects + extras.

 

[TimmyD]

Of course it's not. The Mets may not even like Keller or any of our other guys. But based on recent deals, Keller + 3/4 other good to solid pieces should get talks started if not pretty close. I don't think that's beeing outlandish or pandering to the Pirates side of things.

Meadows is a non starter (in a big package) given what he showed at the MLB level. Plus he was already a premium prospect anyway. Not quite Moncada but pretty damn close. If you want Meadows you're not getting much anything else on top of that. I'd absolutely consider Meadows for Degrom but the Mets can't be asking for much more than him, at least not another 2-3 top 5 prospects in our system. For instance if they wanted Keller with Meadows I'd laugh and then hang up. I'd be shocked if Degrom brought back Meadows/Keller from any team. Surely one of those and more pieces but not your top 2 prospects (and higher end ones at that).

Edit: See what we got for Gerrit Cole. You'd have to give up a bit more but Cole is a cost controlled pitcher in the same general ballpark as Degrom. But in no way did we take the Astro's top 2 prospects + extras.

My bigger point is that it is highly unlikely we would go give up what it takes to get both guys. If you want to do a package of Keller plus other assets (lesser assets) for either DeGrom or Archer I would be ok with that. I would try to build a package that lets us keep Keller first but if you have to include him to get a proven stud so be it

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'd do Meadows+Keller, whoever the Mets prefer out of Tucker/Newman/Kramer, and either Kuhl or Williams for Degrom. Or honestly, if they like Glasnow I'd do Meadows/Keller/Glasnow.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Also Degrom has way more value than Cole did at that time. Cole was very, very mediocre in 2016-2017. Cole's value at that time is probably similar to Archer's value today. Degrom's is a large step above.

 

[pistolpete11]

I can't imagine that Meadows wouldn't be involved if they traded for deGrom. Trading 10 potential years of Meadows for 2+ years of deGrom is a gamble. Is this team good enough to make that gamble? I don't know.

One thing is certain, if they trade Meadows, they HAVE to resign Dickerson.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Hurdle basically put Taillon in a spot where he needed to throw a shutout or 1 run against given the lineup card Hurdlelogic put out. Absolutely pathetic.

Dickerson hurt yesterday. Marte out today after getting hit on the hand.

So much for momentum lol.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Eovaldi for Boston's 15th ranked prospect.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Hurdle basically put Taillon in a spot where he needed to throw a shutout or 1 run against given the lineup card Hurdlelogic put out. Absolutely pathetic.

Dickerson hurt yesterday. Marte out today after getting hit on the hand.

So much for momentum lol.

You ride the streak as long as possible. You dont take Marte out when Dickerson already is. Marte and Polanco our best chance at HRs...which got us 11 in a row.

That was good enough for hurdle tho

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

You ride the streak as long as possible. You dont take Marte out when Dickerson already is. Marte and Polanco our best chance at HRs...which got us 11 in a row.

That was good enough for hurdle tho

Marte got hurt