This is from several pages ago and we/I kind of talked around it as prospect lists were rolling out, but it might be a fun exercise now that we're officially at the start of spring training. I'll at least take a stab for kicks, doing prospects now and circling back to do a roster/rotation posted later today.
My prospect list will be curbed from what I anticipate Eric Longenhagen's is:
0) Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B MLB - Hayes still technically has prospect status, but he'll graduate very early in the season and so for the purposes of typing this up, I'll count him above the list. If you have been completely out of the loop and do not know who he is, he's the top position player prospect since McCutchen. Elite defense at 3B, and the main thing holding back whether people think he's a 5-tool player or not is similar to Cutch as well, with questions throughout the minors about his in-game power. Hayes has answered some of those questions through swing tweaks and consistently hitting the ball hard.
I think the biggest split is probably between people who think he'll hit for more like 10-15 HRs vs. people who think 20-25. I'm firmly in the latter camp; I think he's the cornerstone talent.
1) Quinn Priester, SP A-/A+ - Priester has probably generated the most hype of any MLB prospect who didn't play competitively last year, which is all of them unless they played in MLB. He displayed added velocity but also made use of the quarantine time to put on a ton of muscle. This is paired with a plus plus curveball. He's still a little ways away, but the new plan seems to be to move pitchers along quicker, so it wouldn't be out of the question for him to reach AA by the end of the season. His big test is showing his gains in actual competition. If he does, the hype train will really kick into gear.
2) Oneil Cruz, SS AA - Cruz currently has a higher ceiling than anyone in the system, and probably almost anyone in other MLB systems, but also has a ton of variance. He's 6'7" but extremely fast and athletic; people are split over whether he can remain at SS, but the Pirates have lots of reasons to keep trying, since if he sticks there and even comes close to his offensive ceiling, you will have an elite player on your hands. His arm is so good that many seem to default to thinking he'll end up in RF, but I would guess we try one of the other OF spots before that, given PNC's dimensions. Cruz was involved in a car accident during which three people were killed this offseason. The biggest baseball question hanging over his head is whether his hit tool is going to look like a liability in the upper minors. A normal 2020 season would have been crucial for him, so 2021 will go a long way towards the kind of hype he may have. Unless he bowls people over in camp, I'd expect us to start him in AA Altoona and hope he can make his way to Indianapolis after a few months.
3) Nick Gonzales, SS/2B A-/A+ - Gonzales was the sixth overall pick in last year's draft but didn't play due to the pandemic. He played SS in college but most expect him to move over to 2B fairly soon in the pros. He put up video game stats in college, which people in part doubt due to the competition and park factors at New Mexico State, but he also had a very good line in the Cape Cod League with wooden bats against top pitching talent, which is one of the things that made him a standout prospect. I think he's somewhat overlooked because the profile isn't terribly exciting, but right now he looks like a quick-moving, advanced approach middle infielder who will be a solid everyday player. There are worse things to have as a 2B of the future, and if the power shows up even more than people expect, he'll have some hype.
4) Tahnaj Thomas, SP A+ - Thomas is a high ceiling, high variance pitcher who we got by trading Jordan Luplow and Max Moroff to the Indians a few years ago, a trade that I have the mention really undermines the idea that Huntington always sought low floor, safe returns. Thomas is almost all projection still, but I think the 2021 season will be big in terms of where his hype will start to lie. He hits triple digits with the fastball, and so developing a half decent offspeed pitch will mean that he dominates the low minors. If he has some good showings, he could very well look like a 1B to Priester's 1A, but we have to wait and see. Similar to Priester, it looks like he added a lot of muscle in the off year.
5) Liover Pegeuro, SS A+ - Peguero came over in the Marte trade and projects as a quality defender with speed and a strong hit tool. He doesn't look like he'll hit for huge power, but he has a very nice, compact swing, and generally what seems to stand out about him is that he's a very poised player. He's had hype brimming for several years, so as is becoming a pattern here, 2021 could see him take another step forward. He could develop more pop as he gets stronger while rising through the ranks.
6) Miguel Yajure, SP AAA/MLB - Yajure headlined the Taillon deal and projects as a very competent, consistent starter. More of a floor than ceiling guy, he still has a good pitch mix and velocity to go with the typical traits of command and feel for pitching. He was briefly called into duty by the Yankees out of the bullpen last year and as a result didn't have a handle on his changeup, which may be his best weapon. My sense is he will spend most of the year in Indianapolis unless he really forces the issue and/or we swing a few deadline deals.
7) Travis Swaggerty, CF A/AA - Swaggerty was the 10th overall pick in 2018. At this point he almost profiles as a sort of old school leadoff hitter with a little bit of a modern twist, if that's an acceptable description. He's got plus defense in CF, speed he can use in games, and can get on base at a good clip. The questions on him were once about the hit tool, as he was more of a power guy in college, but the pop has yet to truly show up in pro ball. A lot of the question here is whether he can put everything together as he looks to reach AA and AAA this year.
8) Hudson Head, OF A- - Head was the best player in the Musgrove return and at this point is one of the major developmental players in the system, someone who is far away but could catapult high onto top-100 lists in 18 months or so. He was a huge rising prospect in his senior year of HS before the draft, which led to the Padres spending a record bonus of 3M in the third round for him. The Padres have a good track record with this kind of thing, and obviously the Pirates coveted him. The traits I've seen praised most are his bat speed and athleticism.
9) Brennan Malone, SP A- - Malone was the other player in the Marte trade along with Pegeuro, and may only be this low on the list due to the fact that he still hasn't pitched too much. He's got the makeup of a power pitcher and already has two breaking balls in his arsenal to go along with a fastball presumably in the upper 90s. Like almost everybody else so far, 2021 could see him rise further.
10) Cody Bolton, SP AA/AAA - Bolton is someone who rose through the minors pretty quickly for a projectable high school arm, drafted in 2017 but reaching AA by 2019. One big question going forward with him is health, as he's had a couple of injuries, but in 2021, he may be a big of a post-hype prospect who could even get a taste of MLB action depending on what goes down (injury and/or firesale could see some brief looks for him and Yajure, who you might figure along with Keller and perhaps 1 guy like Brubaker to be decent bets for a young 2022 rotation). Bolton has a very strong fastball and an even better slider, so coupled with potential health concerns, that could push him to being a very good multi-inning relief option. He and Brubaker are not too dissimilar in that regard, so if just one of them hits their potential, then you should have a good mid-rotation guy to pair with Yajure as a stabler anchor option. I'm beyond Bolton's profile here, but SP-wise, you want to see that happen along with Keller taking a clear step forward.
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Ok, that's my own ranking, basically cribbed from how the FanGraphs list will be ranked. That list will be much more informative, and another source that's extremely good with lots of video is this one:
Scouting: Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects – TDK Baseball
Up to a point, I think there's enough similarities between guys' ceilings and the lack of meaningful 2020 data that the order isn't a huge deal. If you trust the FanGraphs list over everything else, then there's a bit of a tier between #3 and #4 and a more solid tier between #7 and #8, with the caveat that #8 and #9 could well be candidates to move up next year, and onto the FG list. I think there's a number of pretty plausible guys to slide in at #10, so I went Bolton partly out of playing favorites and partly because he's closer to MLB than the majority of the list.
Outside of Oliva and I guess Crowe if we want to include him, the other talent in the system is similarly young and has a high degree of variance. What you hope is that a number of the guys already gaining recognition continue to hit, and then you have a handful of these other guys taking steps forward, putting themselves in the position where somebody like Malone is today. The overall outlook of the system is strong – Cherington has done a good job of adding on top of what Huntington had, both in terms of highly ranked guys and in terms of depth. It's likely that the next two drafts will provide opportunities to really do the same, and we'll need to see the international prospects start bearing fruit as well. The name of the game is that most prospects will flame out, but we're taking the right approach.
The 2021 overall storylines I am interested to watch are 1) how much we can get out of the closer-to-MLB guys (Yajure, Bolton, Swaggerty, Brubaker, Oliva) and 2) what's the prognosis on the highest ceiling guys (Priester, Thomas, Cruz, Gonzales).