OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: More of the same

[JimmyTwoTimes]

I think the Cardinals losing means that the Cubs still make the WC game at the very worst, but don't care enough to fully look into the details. Pulling this out with Williams lined up for tomorrow would be quite nice.

The Cubs are totally screwed if they have to play in a WC game IMO. It's actually surprising that they are even in the position to win the division relative to their pitching... I guess having 7 or 8 very good hitters can cover for a lot. NL playoffs seem wide open. Besides Kershaw and maybe Buehler, who are the best NL pitchers? Freeland, then I guess Foltenewicz?

Just shows anything can happen in Ssptember. We passed the Phillies..Dbacks....etc. But NH gave up in August thinking we were out of it.

Guys like Justin Smoak were put on waivers. Josh Donaldson. Anything to give our offense a boost yet they did nothing

Wasted opportunity imo.

Our Pitching never budged...have been dominang since the ASB, except when they brought in someone who wasnt the normal starter or normal reliever. So cant say we would have folded under the pressure of being in a WC spot.

We just needed a bat or two to get the rest going. Like they are now.

Need to start next year off strong..and not look back. Dont even make it close..no wildcard.

Up to Nutting..does he want to fill the seats or not. NH needs to go to him and show him what the Brewers did.

 

[DanielPlainview]

This is definitely not the worst.

I get what you are saying about September, but also I think you can pretty much take any swath of games and make these kinds of reductionist arguments about them. Let's say for the sake of discussion that we win out-- certainly there are good reasons to be skeptical that we are truly an 84 win team or something, but even so, the streakiness correlates pretty strongly with how we were for much of the season. I think by most metrics and just the eye test, we're a team that's roughly average, and September doesn't do a lot to change that one way or another. Maybe it adds up to a nice story of 83 wins instead of 79 or 80, but then we're just getting into semantics over what we want to tell ourselves.

The bottom line for me is that we're in a tier slightly below the NL playoff contenders, but not the basement dwelling / rebuilding teams. That's good and bad news, for lots of reasons we've gone around and around about for the past several weeks. One area in which we could have done a lot better just off the top of my head is against similar kinds of competition, with teams like the Diamondbacks, Phillies, Nationals, and to some extent Giants. Then there's also the Cardinals. There are so many ways you can carve up the entire season, but if we end up with around 83 wins, I bet it's not too hard to find the 8 or 9 wins amongst just those matchups that would have solidified a playoff chance.

It's not a reductionist argument, it's a pragmatic one. The cold, hard fact of the matter is, the vast majority of teams are not playing in September as they would during the bulk of season. The Pirates are not much different; does Pablo Reyes play in July? Not unless there's a catastrophe. Therefore, the results are unreliable as a gauge for the season and as a predictor of the next.

It's glorified spring training, and skews the end-result of the season.

 

[TNT87]

f*** the Cubs.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's not a reductionist argument, it's a pragmatic one. The cold, hard fact of the matter is, the vast majority of teams are not playing in September as they would during the bulk of season. The Pirates are not much different; does Pablo Reyes play in July? Not unless there's a catastrophe. Therefore, the results are unreliable as a gauge for the season and as a predictor of the next.

It's glorified spring training, and skews the end-result of the season.

What's the underlying argument that you are making? It's annoying that we might win 84 games instead of 79 because it's the month of September? If so, ok, but so what? If your underlying argument is that we're actually something like a 72-74 win team that is just coasting off the month of September, there's really not a lot of ground to back that up.

There are better ways to carve up what this team is than focusing on unreliable and vague criteria that are indexed to generalizations about the month of September. We are thoroughly average across the board--15th in fwar for batting, pitching, and defense. Drop the overall metrics and just go with general, eye/gut assessment and it's probably the case that our pitching looks like it ticks slightly over that, and our offense and defense slightly under that.

Further, raising general or speculative arguments about September can cut both ways. We've seen it happen enough times to know that players without much of a book on them can be at an advantage in the early going, especially pitchers. There are reasons not to just dismiss September baseball unthinkingly, just as there are reasons not to take any isolated stretch of a baseball season and make too big of a deal about it. Ultimately, I just don't see the salient difference between where a mediocre team lands on the win range of 78-84 wins other than curmudgeonliness for the sake of curmudgeonliness.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Maybe I'm being unfair-- I can see the general point that there's enough variation in September that we should pause, but I also still stop short of connecting it strongly to team W/L, because then the implication is that teams not in the race basically play seasons that are 30 games shorter than teams in the race. And this becomes harder for teams on the bubble, plus getting into all kinds of specific details from game or game and team to team.

I think it's useful to just talk in terms of ranges with team's overall, like 78-84, 85-92, 92+, etc.. Carve it up how you like, but I think we're abstractly in the first category, which is almost definitely always going to be just short to pretty much just short of the WC race. That ends up being true even if we keep a small roster in September for the thrill of it and play only the regulars - there's enough baseball behind us at that point to be pretty secure in the overall status of the team. If we pick up a few extra overall wins in September, my attitude is so what? There's definitely general haziness, and haziness especially about specific players like Reyes, but I stop short of being too perplexed regarding the team overall. Going into next year we need to figure out how to improve by about 7-10 wins or so.

 

[TNT87]

First Polanco will miss some of '19 and now Santana missing the entire next season. That sucks.

 

[DanielPlainview]

The argument is quite simple: take September results with a grain a salt.

The problem really boils down to the length of the season. April is a full shoulder shrug. May is about half a shrug. June interest picks up. By the middle of July, at least 1/4 of the league knows they're realistically out of it. A month later, 1/2 league (at least knows) they're out of it. September, around 12 teams are left playing meaningful baseball.

I've argued before that the schedule needs to be trimmed down by two months. I know it will never happen, but the games only have real meaning for about 2 months of the year for 50% of the teams at least, and it's because of how inconsequential much of the season feels.

Another proposal is the split season format, where the first half and second half of the season are treated independently and the standings leaders of each half qualify for the playoffs. This is similar to how some soccer leagues in Central and South America operate, known as the Apertura and Clausura.

 

[DanielPlainview]

First Polanco will miss some of '19 and now Santana missing the entire next season. That sucks.

Kuhl, too. I wouldn't be surprised if his days as a starter are over.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

The argument is quite simple: take September results with a grain a salt.

The problem really boils down to the length of the season. April is a full shoulder shrug. May is about half a shrug. June interest picks up. By the middle of July, at least 1/4 of the league knows they're realistically out of it. A month later, 1/2 league (at least knows) they're out of it. September, around 12 teams are left playing meaningful baseball.

I've argued before that the schedule needs to be trimmed down by two months. I know it will never happen, but the games only have real meaning for about 2 months of the year for 50% of the teams at least, and it's because of how inconsequential much of the season feels.

Another proposal is the split season format, where the first half and second half of the season are treated independently and the standings leaders of each half qualify for the playoffs. This is similar to how some soccer leagues in Central and South America operate, known as the Apertura and Clausura.

Take any one month sample with a grain of salt.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

No Archer on Sunday due to a vague claim about groin soreness from earlier in the season. Suppose it's just as well -- the Cubs start was a good exclamation point, not sure there's much upshot to a meaningless game on the road against a bad team. Taillon apparently will start Saturday.

Let's hope we can get one more gem from Williams to cap off his season. We win tonight and the Cubs and Brewers will be deadlocked, with the Cubs having to face the Cards (who will be fighting for their lives) while the Brewers face the Tigers. I'd love nothing more than a Cubs-Rockies/Dodgers WC game, and we can be a fairly decent final factor if we can take this series tonight.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I like it, why the hell not? I'm all for it. See if Kang looks at all competent in the majors, if he looks totally shot, you at least know you can't rely on him next year.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Hopefully he gets a few opportunities. I expect he'll be very limited.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

This umpiring crew has been absolutely jobbing the Pirates the whole series. Can't wait to see this laughing stock of a Cubs pitching staff have to line up in the playoffs.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

God, I have such a violent hatred for the Cubs that I have to have the game on mute if there's a decent possibility that something will happen that will force me to listen to them cheer.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Disappointing, and maybe a bit of a fitting end for Williams. He got screwed a bit by some bad defense, but I think this also shows a bit of his overall weakness and strength. He was able to get some Ks when he needed, but also ended up with a big pitch count and a mediocre overall line. With that said, in the event that we were actually in competition with the Cubs and not just being a spoiler, 3 runs in 5 innings is at least not a disastrous start. I know it's not exactly scientific, but he seems to have the ability to salvage, even in high pressure situations (which you could argue last night was, at least in an individual sense).

I think that, and his ability to string together chunks of solid 6 IP starts, are why he's so useful as a mid-rotation starter going forward. I'd still place him 4th in this rotation, but that's really more semantics than anything. He's a very useful cog in the machine.

I'd like two wins this weekend, all reservations about September and general meaninglessness of the winning record aside. I don't really care all that much about anything other than one more nice Jamo start. I guess Sunday we'll see some kind of bullpen game, with Brault, Holmes, and others? Maybe a true spring training kind of game from a pitching perspective. With Kingham going tonight and other ML starters being shut down presumably, I don't see what other option there is.

 

[TNT87]

 

[Empoleon8771]

Kang is pinch hitting for Brault next inning it looks like, just throwing it out there.

 

[DanielPlainview]

They definitely need to upgrade Kingham and Brault. I don't see these guys contributing much positive long term.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

They definitely need to upgrade Kingham and Brault. I don't see these guys contributing much positive long term.

Hopefully respond the way Williams did. Probably not at that level but any improvement would go a long way.

Keep in mind Kingham and Holmes both went thru multiple injuries during their minor careers. Losing out on full seasons. They were ignored as prospects at one point after the back to back season ending injuries. Drafted back in 2010. So theyve come a long way.

The fact they made it to the bigs is a big deal in itself after the adversity they went thru.

So even tho Holmes pissed me off blowing 2 games for us at the end...Im not gonna give up on either of them yet.

Nobody expected this from Williams. So we'll see what happens with Kingham, Holmes, and Brault. We have other options too in Eppler and Brubaker. Waddell(lefty). Someone has to pan out out of all of those guys.

And losing Kuhl/Santana for the year, we are gonna need it.

Its great to see Reyes hitting like this. Great to see Kang back. But if this prevents the Pirates from spending in FA(we are at 70 mil right now...110 mil during playoff years)...then forget it. You know they arent serious about winning.

After the Archer trade, common sense is they are planning on adding some impact bats. But common sense and the Pirates , havent been on the same page.

Cant wait til FA starts....

Heres a look at whats out there...

The Ultimate 2018-19 MLB Free-Agent Primer

 

[Empoleon8771]

1 inning away from a winning season.

I think I've changed my stance on the Pirates for next year, I do think they'll be aggressive in free agency. Someone made a convincing argument for me to believe they'll go hard after Escobar, which would be a great signing for a lot of reasons. Start with Moran/Kang as your 3rd base platoon and Escobar as your SS. If Kang shows he's not a MLBer anymore, you can use Escobar as the righty in the 3rd base platoon and as the SS when Moran is in.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

1 inning away from a winning season.

I think I've changed my stance on the Pirates for next year, I do think they'll be aggressive in free agency. Someone made a convincing argument for me to believe they'll go hard after Escobar, which would be a great signing for a lot of reasons. Start with Moran/Kang as your 3rd base platoon and Escobar as your SS. If Kang shows he's not a MLBer anymore, you can use Escobar as the righty in the 3rd base platoon and as the SS when Moran is in.

I like your thinking.

Some may be upset we gave up Glasnow, Meadows, and Baz but if thats what it takes for the Pirates to go all in these next few years im all for it. Thats why I didnt judge the Archer trade at face value...it meant alot more than that. You dont make that trade if you dont plan on making solid additions thru FA in the offseason. Because it obviously wasnt a move for this season or they would have added a rental bat or two. They didnt. Tells me they are planning on making a big splash this winter.

We'll see. All I know is they are at 70mil in salary right now and were at 110 mil during playoff years. Thats a 40 mil difference.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I like your thinking.

I'm still not sold on the Pirates being willing to spend that much on a shortstop, but I at least buy the thought that Escobar, Newman, Kang and Moran as the left side of your infield is pretty damn solid and I think the Pirates would love that if they are willing to spend money on Escobar. The Pirates don't want to pay Mercer $6.5 million, I think you can interpret that 2 ways. The bad way is that they're cheap and they don't want to spend money on a SS. The good way is that they don't think Mercer is good, so they don't want to pay him $6.5 million. Which one is it?

If it's the first, they're not getting Escobar and they'll likely end up with something like Hechavaria and Newman as a SS duo for next year. If it's the second, I could easily see them opening the checkbook for Escobar.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

My worry is that Escobar is more or less the main best case scenario fit, and outside of some kind of trade option, there really isn't a clear plan B. So if some weird contingencies happen, like he wants to play in a certain part of the country, etc., then we are going to end up very disappointed. Obviously, I think that Huntington needs to be extremely aggressive and overpay if that's what it takes... there's really no excuse. Even assuming there are some raises or a contract extension or two, there's plenty of money to get a guy like him.

Another name that I saw tossed around that might make sense is a reunion with Justin Wilson. He still throws hard, and would be able to be used in very specific and helpful ways out of the pen, since we effectively have Kela for the 8th inning and Crick still in the backend mix.

I'm not sure about Escobar's SS defense, and have my doubts about somebody like Newman being much use as a defensive-minded backup for the late innings or something, but really, I don't see any alternative that makes sense other than signing somebody like Hech in addition to Escobar, resulting in much less time for Moran (which is totally fine by me).

Kang is starting at 3B today, and apparently the game is at 4pm. I'll probably watch on a delay -- hoping for one last gem from Jamo to get to a real winning season of 82 games, September grain of salt notwithstanding.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I know it's a super small sample size, but Kang looks pretty solid so far. He's making some hard contact with the ball, he seems composed at the plate and he's doing fine defensively. I'd love to see him just drive one at some point, he doesn't look bad at all though.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Just because...