OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: More of the same

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Empoleon8771

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Archer is ending the season on a really strong note, he's at a sub-3.00 ERA in his last 5 starts right now. That should make people optimistic about him for next year I think.

I'm not reading much into Reyes because it's September baseball. I'll see what he can do next year, but I certainly don't want to plan on him having a big role next year.
 
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JimmyTwoTimes

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Reyes has looked pretty good throughout his career in the minors. Especially this year in Indy. This is what we hoped we would see from Moroff but he never did this.

May not keep it up but Im optimistic

BTW, not that our first round picks pan out anyway (well we will see with these guys getting their chance soon) but we had 10th-11th pick locked up again...now back to 17.

Watch this be the year another Baez type gets drafted around 12th lol
 

DJ Spinoza

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I think with Reyes, he has positioned himself well to earn a spot in spring training next season. It's fair to say that September doesn't mean a whole lot, but he's played as well as a September callup can play, and while these games mean nothing to us, the Cubs are certainly not on cruise control right now. I don't expect anything particular out of him, but he seems like he could be the consummate utility player type, giving you positional flexibility, speed, and not inexisting pop, with a good bat. That's plenty useful as a super-sub, but again, I think the big question is if he can do this while only playing once or twice a week.

Good call on Archer's last few starts. Expectations should still be high with him next year, and in spite of the bitter disappointment, his contract is maybe the biggest reason why the deal happened. He could have pitched much better from the jump, but it's hard to really even rank him that high on reasons why we should be disappointed with the team overall. Outside of his finish, he's definitely a bit of an individual disappointment, but our structural problems lie elsewhere. Now it's on Huntington to go out and address with offense, with the entire pitching staff more or less being solidified.
 

JimmyTwoTimes

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Cubs last 6 games against us...1, 1, 1, 1, 1, and 0.

And we now just knocked them down to being only a half game ahead of the Brewers. Would.be a great finish if we force them to play the WC game...and Cards miss out. Rockies vs Cubs..and Rockies take em out.
 
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pistolpete11

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Cubs last 6 games against us...1, 1, 1, 1, 1, and 0.

And we now just knocked them down to being only a half game ahead of the Brewers. Would.be a great finish if we force them to play the WC game...and Cards miss out. Rockies vs Cubs..and Rockies take em out.
It would be nice to play the spoiler at least in part, but the down side there is we help the Brewers. I'm not sure who I dislike more.

Good to see from Archer. I saw that he has credited the turning point as not shaking off Cervelli anymore. Says he knows the league and hitters better than he does and it allows him to not overthink things and just pitch. Seems like something that could have been worked out much sooner if that's really what happened.
 

DJ Spinoza

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It would be nice to play the spoiler at least in part, but the down side there is we help the Brewers. I'm not sure who I dislike more.

Good to see from Archer. I saw that he has credited the turning point as not shaking off Cervelli anymore. Says he knows the league and hitters better than he does and it allows him to not overthink things and just pitch. Seems like something that could have been worked out much sooner if that's really what happened.

Yeah, I think his stuff has been a hair sharper, but it does seem generally like his biggest weapon has been having the hitters fooled. I'm still slightly worried about him next season, and especially the thing that a few people pointed out when the trade happened: if his fastball loses some ticks, then he is in real trouble. But he had plenty of good Cubs hitters completely fooled last night, and the changeup seems like it might be coming along well, too. Hopefully he'll cap things off Sunday with another exclamation point. Without simply just assuming everything we've seen will continue as is, I think we're in great shape with Taillon-Archer as a 1-2 punch, Musgrove there as #3, and Williams and Nova in the backend, with Williams maybe even performing like a front end starter for extended stretches.

I take the Brewers winning over the Cubs any day. The main thing I want to see is the Cubs forced to play in a WC game where they don't have a shutdown starter and have to face Kyle Freeland or something and lose. It would be a modicum of karma returning for their god-tier Arietta destroying us several years ago.
 

DanielPlainview

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September sucks. I bet Hurdle and Co. pat themselves on the back for an 84-win season largely bolstered by September victories against teams that had one foot on the beach.
 

Empoleon8771

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September sucks. I bet Hurdle and Co. pat themselves on the back for an 84-win season largely bolstered by September victories against teams that had one foot on the beach.

I forgot wins against teams trying to win the division don't count, like the Cubs right now. Or the Brewers in the last series. Good to know!
 

DJ Spinoza

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Yeah I just can't buy that at all. The Cubs are fighting to avoid playing a one-game elimination right now. It's the height of magical thinking to just dismiss the Pirates winning because there's no pressure or something... if we end up with an 84-win season, it's probably because we're about an 84 win team. Without even looking the stats up, I imagine it correlates exactly with things such as run differential and so on.

The one stat I keep coming back to is the overall performance since early July, which is second best in the NL I believe. I definitely think that the Giants/Holmes debacle, then bad Twins series is really what did us in, but maybe it's partly a commentary on how harshly the odds were stacked against us thanks to the abysmal stretch from earlier in the season. I guess if there's a lesson, it's that we can't fall into that kind of stretch at any point, if we are going to manage to level up a few notches and get into the 89-95-win terrain.
 

td_ice

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I think it's kinda the opposite. The easy thing for the Pirates would be to just show up and not care. Super easy. You got what, 150 in the stands at home games??!?! Meanwhile you are playing teams still battling for something. So I agree, dismissing the wins now is probably being a bit too harsh.
 

JimmyTwoTimes

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Santana now having TJ surgery.

Damn..just when I thought our pen(the 5) were set for next year. Hopefully Burdi steps up. But we might have some losses to start the season trying to find that other reliever now.

Combine that with Kuhl out for the season too..and Polanco for half of it...we need to add for sure now.

Since we could have that problem filling Santana's spot like I said..we need to add some impact bats now to make up for it.

Was looking forward to our rotation and pen being set to start the season.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I'm still not really sure how much weight the argument carries. We're considerably better than the teams we are 8-0 against. It's not like the Royals or Reds would somehow manage to be more formidable if circumstances were different. The wins come how they come.

Santana being out sucks, because he had a major breakthrough this season. I guess it could have happened anytime, but he's someone that could easily have been more or less shut down once we were essentially out of it, which we did with Kela.
 

DanielPlainview

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I doubt they go 8-0 against them if it were June or July. The rosters are different, the mentality is different. I just do not put much stock in September performances.
 

JimmyTwoTimes

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I doubt they go 8-0 against them if it were June or July. The rosters are different, the mentality is different. I just do not put much stock in September performances.

9-Uncle Paulie-thumb-572xauto-210840.gif
 

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DJ Spinoza

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This is definitely not the worst.

I get what you are saying about September, but also I think you can pretty much take any swath of games and make these kinds of reductionist arguments about them. Let's say for the sake of discussion that we win out-- certainly there are good reasons to be skeptical that we are truly an 84 win team or something, but even so, the streakiness correlates pretty strongly with how we were for much of the season. I think by most metrics and just the eye test, we're a team that's roughly average, and September doesn't do a lot to change that one way or another. Maybe it adds up to a nice story of 83 wins instead of 79 or 80, but then we're just getting into semantics over what we want to tell ourselves.

The bottom line for me is that we're in a tier slightly below the NL playoff contenders, but not the basement dwelling / rebuilding teams. That's good and bad news, for lots of reasons we've gone around and around about for the past several weeks. One area in which we could have done a lot better just off the top of my head is against similar kinds of competition, with teams like the Diamondbacks, Phillies, Nationals, and to some extent Giants. Then there's also the Cardinals. There are so many ways you can carve up the entire season, but if we end up with around 83 wins, I bet it's not too hard to find the 8 or 9 wins amongst just those matchups that would have solidified a playoff chance.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I think the Cardinals losing means that the Cubs still make the WC game at the very worst, but don't care enough to fully look into the details. Pulling this out with Williams lined up for tomorrow would be quite nice.

The Cubs are totally screwed if they have to play in a WC game IMO. It's actually surprising that they are even in the position to win the division relative to their pitching... I guess having 7 or 8 very good hitters can cover for a lot. NL playoffs seem wide open. Besides Kershaw and maybe Buehler, who are the best NL pitchers? Freeland, then I guess Foltenewicz?
 

JimmyTwoTimes

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This is definitely not the worst.

I get what you are saying about September, but also I think you can pretty much take any swath of games and make these kinds of reductionist arguments about them. Let's say for the sake of discussion that we win out-- certainly there are good reasons to be skeptical that we are truly an 84 win team or something, but even so, the streakiness correlates pretty strongly with how we were for much of the season. I think by most metrics and just the eye test, we're a team that's roughly average, and September doesn't do a lot to change that one way or another. Maybe it adds up to a nice story of 83 wins instead of 79 or 80, but then we're just getting into semantics over what we want to tell ourselves.

The bottom line for me is that we're in a tier slightly below the NL playoff contenders, but not the basement dwelling / rebuilding teams. That's good and bad news, for lots of reasons we've gone around and around about for the past several weeks. One area in which we could have done a lot better just off the top of my head is against similar kinds of competition, with teams like the Diamondbacks, Phillies, Nationals, and to some extent Giants. Then there's also the Cardinals. There are so many ways you can carve up the entire season, but if we end up with around 83 wins, I bet it's not too hard to find the 8 or 9 wins amongst just those matchups that would have solidified a playoff chance.

Im mad about August the most. It took us half the year to get pitching in place. We did that. They were great. And the bats disappeared. Wasnt due to lack of talent...those guys were capable of scoring at least a few runs. So many 1-0 and 2-1 losses.

The NL is wide open..with the way we are playing..we would have a chance against any of those teams

Next year will be much tougher. So we better go out and make a splash in FA. Brewers just made playoffs for first time since 2011 because they got Cain and Yelich
 
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