OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: #Lockedown

[NewAgeOutlaw]

I don't know if his stance is any different. My eye sees that his swing has much more torque. He's getting a lot of rotation in the hips and that creates bat speed. If I remember correctly, last year his swing depended more on his arms and wrists.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't know too much about Keller but he seems to have great upside.

The news about Glasnow not developing his changeup is disconcerting. He's probably not as close as some of us want to think, in that he needs to be able to use that pitch when he gets here. Could be another reason why we took on Masterson as a reclamation project - maybe Glasnow won't be ready until closer to July or August, and at that point, he will be getting nearer to some kind of innings limit.

 

[Gallatin]

I don't know if his stance is any different. My eye sees that his swing has much more torque. He's getting a lot of rotation in the hips and that creates bat speed. If I remember correctly, last year his swing depended more on his arms and wrists.

Exactly. He's now doing the big leg kick and swinging from the hips. While being much more selective. This looks like a permanent change to me. Would not be surprised to see him over-producing that 2 yr contract pretty significantly.

 

[Gallatin]

I don't know too much about Keller but he seems to have great upside.

The news about Glasnow not developing his changeup is disconcerting. He's probably not as close as some of us want to think, in that he needs to be able to use that pitch when he gets here. Could be another reason why we took on Masterson as a reclamation project - maybe Glasnow won't be ready until closer to July or August, and at that point, he will be getting nearer to some kind of innings limit.

Keller throws mid-90's with lots of downward plane on the fastball. Curve looks like it can be a plus pitch, maybe the Change too. Showing great control as well.

Glasnow has confidence issues plain and simple. Lack of commitment to developing the change-up is just a symptom.

Taillon is the guy getting called up this season, Glasnow is going to need more time.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

What does Glasnow throw other than the fb and the change? If he throws a slider and curve he could lean on those while using the change sparingly.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think his main pitches are a fastball and curve. From the sound of it, when he throws the changeup, AAA hitters jump all over it. They were talking a little bit about it on air last night or the night before - basically the plan is pretty much to force him to start throwing it.

John Dreker was saying on twitter that Glasnow still seems a little wild even with his fastball, and that he just generally doesn't look ready. I'm totally fine with letting him build up that changeup and his pitch count, with the idea that he probably won't start until next year.

If Taillon is showing poise, it's not like he needs to do too much more than knock off rust at the AAA level. He got hit around a bit last time I think, and he definitely has quite a lot of rust, but if he looks good enough, I imagine the opportunity will be there for him sooner rather than later, with the question marks about Locke, as well as Nicasio to a much lesser extent, and the always looming possibility of an injury.

One thing with Nicasio is that you might argue that he would be more beneficial in middle and long relief, but I don't think we're quite there yet, especially with the starting depth being so bad. If Locke was just kinda bad, and not a trainwreck, then maybe, but I don't think anyone is looking at Locke for a stable contribution right now. Plus Nicasio has insane upside as a starter, now and going forward, and he's had 2 good starts and 1 bad one. Too early to switch it up for him. What we need in the bullpen is Hughes coming back and then a Joe Blanton type. Hopefully Caminero can get to that point, but he doesn't seem to have a mode between insane dominance and atrocity.

 

[Gunnar Staal]

What does Glasnow throw other than the fb and the change? If he throws a slider and curve he could lean on those while using the change sparingly.

I wanna say he's just a fastball and a curve guy. Not sure about the slider. That's why they want the changeup, so he can have that third pitch. That or something to make his curveball more deadly.

EDIT: Beaten to the punch.

As for Taillon, I can see him coming up in about a month or so. He just needs to stretch out so he can go longer than five innings, but otherwise he's pretty much ready to go.

Nicasio is pretty much just a two-pitch guy with a fringy third pitch, so you could get away with him in the starting rotation for a bit, but it doesn't look like he's somebody you want there in August and September.

Locke is horribad, but unfortunately there are plenty of teams that would kill for a Jeff Locke in their rotation. Hell, ten years ago he probably would've been a #2 starter on the Bucs.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

What do people think about Brault's readiness? His numbers seem good, and I remember a lot of praise for him in spring training. Maybe he's an outside the box option to come up and get some starts if Locke continues to suck horribly and Taillon needs 4-5 more starts to get deeper in games?

 

[Gallatin]

I think his main pitches are a fastball and curve. From the sound of it, when he throws the changeup, AAA hitters jump all over it. They were talking a little bit about it on air last night or the night before - basically the plan is pretty much to force him to start throwing it.

John Dreker was saying on twitter that Glasnow still seems a little wild even with his fastball, and that he just generally doesn't look ready. I'm totally fine with letting him build up that changeup and his pitch count, with the idea that he probably won't start until next year.

If Taillon is showing poise, it's not like he needs to do too much more than knock off rust at the AAA level. He got hit around a bit last time I think, and he definitely has quite a lot of rust, but if he looks good enough, I imagine the opportunity will be there for him sooner rather than later, with the question marks about Locke, as well as Nicasio to a much lesser extent, and the always looming possibility of an injury.

One thing with Nicasio is that you might argue that he would be more beneficial in middle and long relief, but I don't think we're quite there yet, especially with the starting depth being so bad. If Locke was just kinda bad, and not a trainwreck, then maybe, but I don't think anyone is looking at Locke for a stable contribution right now. Plus Nicasio has insane upside as a starter, now and going forward, and he's had 2 good starts and 1 bad one. Too early to switch it up for him. What we need in the bullpen is Hughes coming back and then a Joe Blanton type. Hopefully Caminero can get to that point, but he doesn't seem to have a mode between insane dominance and atrocity.

This, all of this...

And Glasnow often struggles to throw the Curve for strikes.

 

[TNT87]

Hopefully the injury bug is behind Taillon now.

 

[Gallatin]

What do people think about Brault's readiness? His numbers seem good, and I remember a lot of praise for him in spring training. Maybe he's an outside the box option to come up and get some starts if Locke continues to suck horribly and Taillon needs 4-5 more starts to get deeper in games?

Compared to last year, Brault is really struggling. The guy is just having problems throwing strikes right now. I would need to see him dominating like last year for at least a half dozen starts before considering anything but an emergency call-up myself.

If we need someone soon, it's Taillon for sure, even if we can only get 5 innings out of him.

The way Keller has looked - think he sees AAA time in 17. Kids gonna move up fast if he keeps pitching anything remotely like this.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Taillon tossing a no-hitter through 5. 5 Ks; 68 pitches; 0 BB.

Edit: Gave up a single in the 6th. Finished 6 innings with 6 Ks, 88 pitches, and 0 BBs. ERA now 1.65

I just realized MiLB has an app. Makes following these guys a lot easier.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Kang finally got his first hit of his rehab stint. He's 1 for 12.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Nice to see Taillon with 6 solid innings. Hopefully he can put together about 3-4 more starts at around that level or a bit worse (i.e. 0 or 1BB, good K/9, just a few hits/runs). If he does, I could easily see him being in the mix by around May 16th or so. We'll begin a string of series against teams with mostly so-so offenses: Braves, Rockies, DBacks (all a homestand), Rangers, Marlins, Angels. In fact, it might even be advisable for him to get his feet wet against those teams, because presumably June 6th begins about a 20-game stretch against NL playoff contenders. A lot of that is at home, but if Taillon stays on a straight path of basically 6+ innings, good Ks, and little BBs, there's no reason to think he'll need much more time.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Less than ideal start - need Marte to at least have a good at-bat there and get a sacrifice.

Nicasio could have HR troubles tonight. That will be the big thing for him to overcome in order to put up a solid start.

Good lord, Hurdle getting too cute by trying to keep Rodriguez in the lineup. You can't be making mistakes like that behind Nicasio. I can support trying to get Mercer a little rest, but he's also red hot at the plate and our only good defensive option at the most important infield position.

Nicasio mostly seems like he is hitting his spots, but if the score stays very close, I'd be very cautious about letting him see this lineup a third time through. Tonight might be a night to use Vogelsong in a kind of piggy back start starting in the fifth inning.

WOW, S-Rod goes deep again! Guess I was a bit hasty with his defensive mishap in the first.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

Serpico...man...I wondered where his supposed power was last year, but this is rather absurd.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

That ball was crushed, but Polanco needs to field it better than that. Nicasio seems right around the edges of the plate, with the umpire sometimes indulging and sometimes holding a very strict strike zone. He's going to be at a lot of pitches and I'd be surprise to see him last extremely long. I'd really just aim for 5 and go with Vogelsong in the 6th, unless it's the bottom of the order approaching then.

Pirates need to get to De La Rosa. He has good stuff, but he is capable of getting into some trouble.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

By the way, Cardinals lost to our friends the Padres last night. Reds actually just caught up to and took the lead on the Cubs, so it would be really nice to take this one and be looking at a chance to sweep with Liriano on the mound tomorrow.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The way this bullpen is right now, it's going to be like welcoming the Messiah through the Golden Gate when Jared Hughes comes back.

Gotta win today and salvage the series, and then hopefully the road trip with 3/4 in Colorado, but we're pretty well beyond looking ahead and hoping to win multiple games consecutively. This team is kind of an inconsistent mess right now, but so is the NL overall, really. Despite such a great start and dominant pitching, 4 games is not a drastic lead for the Cubs, especially when we haven't played them.

The pitching is most definitely going to have to turn things around, and quick, if we want to keep this pace and/or move closer to the top of the division once we face tough opponent after tough opponent.

Another note that's somewhat interesting (and probably obvious) in terms of our matchup with the Cubs/everyone else expected to contend in the NL: for basically this entire run, you could say that we've been where we have been because the pitching staff has been able to consistently perform at their ceiling and in many cases, over their heads. We've always had Cutch at an elite MVP level, and at various times, we've had other players on offense at a peak performance, but the offense has always been streaky. It's been more of a "we have some difference-makers coming" with Polanco and Marte, as well as the obvious pitching-on-the-way.

Well, now you ditch two solid power bats who constantly struck out/had unproductive at-bats, throw two OBP wizards at the top of the order, see Mercer start off much better at the plate, and suddenly the offense is by far the big strength of the team. And this is without Kang and with a Cutch that hasn't even been average by non-Cutch standards.

The offense has definitely had its frustrating games, but the RISP stuff is an anomaly. It's just a radical shift in strategy, and one that looks fairly smart because it plays to our strength. Even if we are super optimistic about Taillon, the big long-term problem on this team is the lack of a good #3 starter for September and the postseason. Maybe Uncle Ray's back kitchen can cook up another JA Happ situation (and maybe his name is Justin Masterson), but I don't think it's much of an oversimplification to say that this team is going to go as far as the offense can take them. And further, that the big X-factors are Cutch returning to Cutch-level, and Marte and Polanco continuing to excel (and Brown and Wehner made the good point yesterday that Marte has really yet to lock-in, which shows just how well he is hitting).

 

[Big McLargehuge]

It's also worth noting that the Cubs have just about as soft of an April schedule as anyone could ask for...which just makes losing series to teams like the Padres that much more painful.

Arizona is good enough to not expect a sweep of at home, but...yeah...gotta win today.

Last night was actually the first chance I had of seeing Schugel. Not the best first impression.

Also made me chuckle a bit that he has the face of a 46 year-old accountant.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yes, that's the thing - if we just took care of business normally this month, by winning series after series, we'd probably just be 2 games behind the Cubs, even after their cakewalk schedule.

It's still not the worst thing in the world to be 4 back, as long as that can hold for the next few weeks (which is somewhat of a big 'if', given our consistency issues), and it's totally reasonable to lose a series now and then against a so-so team, but today is a day where we need to put our foot down and grind out a win. If we do that and even have a mediocre time in Colorado by only winning 2 games, then the road trip still wasn't a total bust at .500.

I'm still hoping beast-mode Cutch comes out today. It seemed like he was ready right before the road trip. If that happens, he'll single-handedly win 3 games in Colorado.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Damn, Cubs are murdering the Reds yet again. That run differential is going to be insane - they get to face the Brewers and Braves at home before our meeting with them early next month.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Said it ever since Theo Epstein went over there......the Cubs are going to be dominating the Central for some time. They have way more money to play with and actually have a master handling that money.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

The Cubs have one of the most enviable situations in all of sports...they bottomed out so they got a few big prospects from the draft, they've been active internationally, they won a few trades (some of are just horrifying for the other team in retrospect), and they play in a huge market and are owned by an entity with near-limitless ability to spend...throw in some elite management and coaching and...yeah.

God I hate them.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

Freese is a really solid hitter. If he could just find a bit more power.