OT: Raise the Jolly Rodger: Setting sail on a new season

[MrBrightside]

 

[WickedWrister]

 

[cookthebooks]

honestly hope they lose both so it is completely obvious how underwhelming gmbcs rebuild has been

 

[TimmyD]

The only reason to keep Bednar is because he’s signed for a couple more seasons and you believe you can contend in that window. Since I don’t believe this team is anywhere close to contending I would absolutely sell high on guys like Bednar and Keller

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'd have no issues trading Bednar because relievers are so volatile and I'd rather sell high on one that a contending team would overpay for.

The Pirates have had such an easy time of acquiring top closers in the past decade+ that I wouldn't cling onto Bednar as someone who is untouchable.

 

[WickedWrister]

I'd have no issues trading Bednar because relievers are so volatile and I'd rather sell high on one that a contending team would overpay for.

The Pirates have had such an easy time of acquiring top closers in the past decade+ that I wouldn't cling onto Bednar as someone who is untouchable.

Remember holding onto Felipe Rivero/Vasquez at the deadline that year?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Remember holding onto Felipe Rivero/Vasquez at the deadline that year?

Well I wouldn't go that far, considering Vasquez was a child diddler

I think the bigger factor to me is that the Pirates have just had a really easy time at finding top end closers in the past, so I don't see a reason to hold onto a top end closer when you're not actively contending. The injury/regression risk is definitely there, but I think it's more about their track record with acquiring closers to me.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'd still extend Keller in a heartbeat. There's no denying that he's started to trend down and some of the doubts people (often in fantasy baseball circles) raised about the K limitations have come to light. I wanted to write off the light-hitting Guardians teeing off against him to post-ASB break inconsistency, and he seemed to be headed towards a rectification of the game yesterday before essentially being the reason that we lost, but the overall trend has been down.

Still, starting pitching is extremely scarce, and you just can't fabricate even mediocre MLB innings out of thin air. If he builds up to 185-190 innings, you absolutely bank that and the improvements he's shown for next season, and I would say that extending him is still one of the higher priority things that need to happen. Even as a 4 ERA pitcher, he's plenty valuable to anchor the rotation that needs further built out with him in it. He's just 27 and starting to put together the tools, which is not uncommon at all for MLB SP.

I think Hayes is the more extreme (but risky) example, but trading him just has "will further break out elsewhere" written all over it. You can say the same thing about Bednar, but trading your main young pitcher right now would be waiving the white flag and signaling that you don't want to seriously compete until 2026 or 2027. I don't care how good Paul Skenes is, or how nice Jared Jones' slider/cutter is, any kind of immediate progression in the next few years requires Keller in the mix, and the expectation should be to extend him and add further to the payroll in free agency or otherwise.

With Bednar, there's more volatility for the closer position, but it all depends on the return. Gun to my head and I'd probably take a shot if it was top-100 talent and other pieces who would factor in pretty immediately, but it feels like the right move is to just play it out with him.

 

[MrBrightside]

The fact that the Pirates "have extended or should extend" players are (a) a 3B who hasn't had an OPS of .700 since 2020, (b) a SP with a career ERA of 4.72 and who has been bombed since May, (c) a corner OF whose greatest comps on Baseball Reference are Gurriel, Winkler, and Baldelli, and (d) a closer helps to explain why this team is 23-48 since May 1.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

Remember holding onto Felipe Rivero/Vasquez at the deadline that year?

Zero chance MLB would have allowed him to be traded. They knew of the investigation.

 

[TimmyD]

The fact that the Pirates "have extended or should extend" players are (a) a 3B who hasn't had an OPS of .700 since 2020, (b) a SP with a career ERA of 4.72 and who has been bombed since May, (c) a corner OF whose greatest comps on Baseball Reference are Gurriel, Winkler, and Baldelli, and (d) a closer helps to explain why this team is 23-48 since May 1.

Yeah there is absolutely zero need or rush to extend Mitch Keller right now. Let him show he can be the guy he was earlier in the season on a consistent basis and then pay him… oh wait that’s the problem… they don’t want to wait until guys are proven and pay them at that point. They want to get out ahead of them early so they can get discounts if guys pan out.

 

[Fogel]

I'd extend Keller. Even if his ceiling is a 4.00 FIP pitcher, that is still incredibly valuable. The Pirates will not sign him to an unfriendly deal so even if he is dealt later, his contract shouldn't be too much of a hindrance. At worst, he is a solid innings eater; Pirates are certainly lacking in those.

I'd be looking for an overpayment for Bednar this summer and next. Relief pitchers are pretty interchangeable except for the top 5-10 so I think the Pirates should try to maximize his return. The Braves already have tried shoring up their relief corps and they will certainly not be alone.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'd extend Keller. Even if his ceiling is a 4.00 FIP pitcher, that is still incredibly valuable. The Pirates will not sign him to an unfriendly deal so even if he is dealt later, his contract shouldn't be too much of a hindrance. At worst, he is a solid innings eater; Pirates are certainly lacking in those.

I'd be looking for an overpayment for Bednar this summer and next. Relief pitchers are pretty interchangeable except for the top 5-10 so I think the Pirates should try to maximize his return. The Braves already have tried shoring up their relief corps and they will certainly not be alone.

Yeah, I think this is exactly right on both fronts. It's easy to undervalue Keller when only assessing him in the context of the Pirates and how bad they continue to be, rather than the context of the league.

Things fluctuate from year to year, and there have been lots of high profile injuries this year, but you can look at the general situation and see how valuable even pretty average guys are. Stroman will probably be highly sought after assuming he hits free agency again, and he is almost the definition of a guy without overpowering stuff.

Keller still probably has another gear or two to unlock. He's found a way to pitch effectively and while I don't think he'll be a crazy strikeout pitcher, he's still better than some recent efforts where he's been touched up with very loud contact. He's got a better established floor as a mid-rotation innings eater, which still gets well-paid on the market. He's got two years left and seems to like playing here, almost seems like the definition of the next move to make.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

There are trade packages where moving Bednar makes sense, but as I have seen some point out, it would be somewhat fitting relative to the state of Cherington's rebuild if he deals the player with the most MLB success that he has acquired so far.

That said, there's only so many arms to go around, and it's not an exaggeration to say that Bednar would be way more impactful than anyone else available. Barlow is decent, and the Nats/Tigers/White Sox all have guys they could offer up, but nobody is as much of a difference maker as Bednar. I guess Hader will likely also get moved, but I think Bednar is better than him.

Besides the depth factor and presumptions about getting better in 2024, I think a Bednar trade would be more of a white flag than anything else. It's a hard sell to say you want to truly compete next year if you are trading a top-3/5 closer, even with the understanding that RP are fickle. Arizona is a pretty good call and always hard to get a read on what their situation is. They need some pitching in the rotation and pen, but if they were ready to dangle Pfaadt as a centerpiece, I'd certainly be tempted by that. Maybe Pfaaft, Canzone, and another throw in or two.

In the end I will be pretty surprised if he goes, though. RPs like him just rarely seem to get traded anymore.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's Heyman, so kind of neither here nor there IMO. He's obviously plugged into agents, and he generally words things ok. I guess he is a step up over Morosi who basically just sort of fabricates stuff that "could happen" or "makes sense", but only rarely reports actual rumors.

Cherington has always maintained the GM-speak of "it's our job to listen" blah blah, so I don't think either rumor means a ton. However, I do have it on pretty good authority that the Pirates were aggressively "listening on" Keller last year. I would assume that his performance, and their general desire to improve/compete in 2024 factors in, but I also think that the front office fundamentally doesn't care about perception, so I wouldn't rule anything out.

 

[sovietsanta87]

Remember holding onto Felipe Rivero/Vasquez at the deadline that year?

I remember when they traded Joel Hanrahan, everyone lost their minds, then his arm exploded

 

[ChaosAgent]

It's Heyman, so kind of neither here nor there IMO. He's obviously plugged into agents, and he generally words things ok. I guess he is a step up over Morosi who basically just sort of fabricates stuff that "could happen" or "makes sense", but only rarely reports actual rumors.

Cherington has always maintained the GM-speak of "it's our job to listen" blah blah, so I don't think either rumor means a ton. However, I do have it on pretty good authority that the Pirates were aggressively "listening on" Keller last year. I would assume that his performance, and their general desire to improve/compete in 2024 factors in, but I also think that the front office fundamentally doesn't care about perception, so I wouldn't rule anything out.

If someone pays the Luis Castillo price you do it. I'm down for them buying an entirely new pitching staff/philosophy this winter.

If Keller is willing to extend for like 5/$55M I would do that alternatively

 

[ChaosAgent]

Keller kinda reminds me of Archer but without the early MLB career success.

Pedigree over performance, works hard but leaves you wanting more.
Righty power pitchers with good but not great stuff. The type of stuff hitters see every night from relievers. Lefties are OPSing .782 against Keller this year. Lefties had a .760 OPS against Archer in 2017.

Maybe we just need to find our Neal Huntington

 

[MrBrightside]

Yeah, not sure Priester has enough stuff to succeed at this level.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Yeah, not sure Priester has enough stuff to succeed at this level.

He needs to stop throwing that meatball 4 seamer middle middle, thats for sure

 

[Shrimper]

You'll have seen probably the worst ballpark in MLB, now you'll be going to one of the best parks.

Going to check out next years schedule to see where the Pirates are playing.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm excited to see how we'll manage to lose this game.

 

[WickedWrister]

Peguero first HR!!!!!!

It's amazing what HR's with runners on base can do for an offense lol

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Good lord we are teeing off

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Santanas sure trying to get traded