GDT: R2 G3: Avs @ Golden Knights 10 ET/8 MT *Who Will Be Tonight's Hero?*

[Foppa2118]

Hits were 50 for each team, and face off wins were 30 for each. So even for each. But you (and others) go ahead with the narrative that the Avs don't hit and can't win face offs.

The "hits" the Avs have aren't the same as the "hits" Vegas has. Vegas actually hits and the Avs brush against people.

Vegas also had the puck all night, so of course the Avs numbers are going to be higher, but if Vegas has the puck all night then you should have like twice the number of hits because you're trying to slow them down and separate them from the puck, not the same number.

Vegas was dominating the Avs on all the face-offs until the end of the third when for some reasons the Avs started winning all the face-offs.

I'll go ahead and keep using my eyes which showed me the Avs lose big face-off after big face-off for the entire middle portion of the game when Vegas was dominating and the Avs couldn't get the puck back, and getting dominated physically while losing the possession battle at the same time.

 

[Foppa2118]

Adrian Dater
@adater
39m
Bednar: "The adjustment we need to make is to outwork them."

if this is the only adjustment, then this series is lost...

The reason he's fixated on compete level is because the Avs haven't been competing the last two games to play his system.

That's why he's pissed. He always gets pissed if someone doesn't play his system the way he wants and now we have most of the team doing it.

If the Avs compete by moving their legs to get to open areas and support each other on the breakout, if they compete by bearing down on their passes so they execute them better, if they compete by back checking harder, if they compete by crashing the net more and creating more havoc around Fleury, if they compete harder by executing on their PP, if they compete harder on their dump ins to actually get the puck back rather then just let Vegas get it, if they compete harder by battling to keep possession rather than just handing Vegas the puck all night they'll go back to firing on all cylinders again.

Of course he knows there's some technical adjustments to make but he's not going to get into detail on that with the media, and the more important thing in his mind (correctly IMO) is that if they focus on themselves, and play like they're capable of, everything should take care of itself.

They don't need to change their stripes too much, they just need to execute better. That's alway their problem when they lose. They beat themselves and it's usually because they got too comfortable thinking it would be easy every night.

 

[21]

Bednar is surpring me in a good way, being tough.

Hopefully he is saying the same thing in the locker room, face to face not only during press conferences.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Bednar is surpring me in a good way, being tough.

Hopefully he is saying the same thing in the locker room, face to face not only during press conferences.

Hes trying to get them to the next level. Every year the teams gotten better under him. I still believe they get to the third round last year if they were healthy but thats just a guess and the fact is they didnt. Maybe Jared is seeing something these past two games that he saw creep in in the series last yr and is trying to get ahead of it before the Avs let a 2-0 series lead slip away. Game 4 imo is going to be the turning point of this series...until game 5 and 6.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Hes trying to get them to the next level. Every year the teams gotten better under him. I still believe they get to the third round last year if they were healthy but thats just a guess and the fact is they didnt. Maybe Jared is seeing something these past two games that he saw creep in in the series last yr and is trying to get ahead of it before the Avs let a 2-0 series lead slip away. Game 4 imo is going to be the turning point of this series...until game 5 and 6.

Last season was a big failure. He might suffer from some sort of PTSD. Heck, Dallas didn't even make playoffs this season. That's how bad they are and everyone knew they were nothing special. We should have beaten them, but we choked. The biggest factor was our goaltender and injuries.

Bednar might still have restless nights about that series.

Most of those issues are gone though. Gruu is fantastic and our depth is ten times better. No excuses.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Last season was a big failure. He might suffer from some sort of PTSD. Heck, Dallas didn't even make playoffs this season. That's how bad they are and everyone knew they were nothing special. We should have beaten them, but we choked. The biggest factor was our goaltender and injuries.

Bednar might still have restless nights about that series.

The fan base felt some PTSD from last nights game watching the Avs blow a lead with 6 minutes left. I know I did. They didnt deserve to win last night but they still had a lead late in the game and blew it and the same culprit from last season was on the ice yet again for the tieing goal. Graves getting in Kadris way last season haunts me still. I have no idea wtf any of Graves, Toews and Soderberg were doing on that tieing goal last night. Soderberg is supposed to be sound defensively but he lets Jonathan Marchessault get by him with ease because hes puck watching Smith. The stupidity of some of these players during crunch time is something to behold.

 

[cinchronicity]

Hes trying to get them to the next level. Every year the teams gotten better under him. I still believe they get to the third round last year if they were healthy but thats just a guess and the fact is they didnt. Maybe Jared is seeing something these past two games that he saw creep in in the series last yr and is trying to get ahead of it before the Avs let a 2-0 series lead slip away. Game 4 imo is going to be the turning point of this series...until game 5 and 6.

Or maybe Bednar is simply a terrible coach?

 

[SirLoinOfCloth]

Or maybe Bednar is simply a terrible coach?

Oh cool. This shtick again. Lose a game and bednar sucks. Go on a winning streak and it goes quiet.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Or maybe Bednar is simply a terrible coach?

Well that very clearly isn't the case.

 

[cinchronicity]

Oh cool. This shtick again. Lose a game and bednar sucks. Go on a winning streak and it goes quiet.

Actually, I have been very consistent since Day 1 of the season that Bednar is absolutely terrible at making adjustments. My statements are the picture of consistency. And if you can say with a straight face that Bednar is excellent at adjustments, please send me a glass of whatever you are drinking.

 

[cinchronicity]

Well that very clearly isn't the case.

Don't make statements without justifying your point. My point is that the Head Coach exists to lead the team with wining strategy. Bednar seems very good at maintaining a winning attitude. He rarely makes snap decisions on players, which I consider a good thing. But Sakic could do that as well. Wat Sakic cannot do is sit behind the bench, see issues and address them in a timely manner. Than again, neither can Bednar. The difference is that Bednar gets paid to make those decisions.

For example, how can we pray for chemistry, then say that the Bednar Blender works? Why do other top teams never use the Blender. The only example I can think of is the Oilers, and...well..nuff said. The best comparison for me is Jurgen Klinsmann in soccer. He is a brilliant Director of Futbol and a simply awful game day coach. Jogi Lowe quietly rans the games for him. Bednar may well be excellent at developing culture, but he is a lousy game managing Head Coach.

While I could site hundreds of examples, just look at the last game. Closely. Notice how Vegas ALWAYS knew our exit strategy and sent guys to the 'secret' places every time. That is because they looked at tape, and adjusted. At least Bednar had a strategy this year, unlike last year. Same with the PP O zone entries. It's either drop it back to the gunner, or complete chaos. And Vegas ( and the rest of the league) have figured out the drop pass. A quality game time coach would have options 2 and 3, and they should all look like option 1. But the Avs don't have that. I can't remember which team, but they figured out the solution: Send two gunners and pass at the past moment. The Avs couldn't double team both gunners, and the puck always made it to the O Zone easily. Having seen that work AGAINST the Avs for an entire game, Bednar still did not adjust, and Mac was triple teams on every entry.

To put it as simply as possible: If you are getting routinely outcoached by Peter DeBoer, you are not a very good coach.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Or maybe Bednar is simply a terrible coach?

Hes not a terrible coach lol.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Actually, I have been very consistent since Day 1 of the season that Bednar is absolutely terrible at making adjustments. My statements are the picture of consistency. And if you can say with a straight face that Bednar is excellent at adjustments, please send me a glass of whatever you are drinking.

Terrible at making in game adjustments is fair.

 

[Foppa2118]

Actually, I have been very consistent since Day 1 of the season that Bednar is absolutely terrible at making adjustments. My statements are the picture of consistency. And if you can say with a straight face that Bednar is excellent at adjustments, please send me a glass of whatever you are drinking.

The only thing suggesting Bednar isn't good at adjustments is their record when trailing after 2 periods, but this is because they almost never trail after two periods.

They were tied for the 2nd fewest losses when trailing after two periods with 8. They're middle of the pack in winning percentage at 17th when trailing after two, and you gotta think that when the best team in the league is trailing after two periods, they just don't have it that night.

The other numbers suggest Bednar is very good at adjustments. Better than DeBitch and Vegas in all the below categories.

- 6th in NHL in wins when trailing after 1 period
- 2nd in NHL in winning percentage when trailing after 1 period
- 3rd best winning percentage when giving up the first goal

NHL Stats

 

[JH21]

Actually, I have been very consistent since Day 1 of the season that Bednar is absolutely terrible at making adjustments. My statements are the picture of consistency. And if you can say with a straight face that Bednar is excellent at adjustments, please send me a glass of whatever you are drinking.

What adjustments could he have made to help us win? Honest question.

If we played to Vegas compete level we easily win that game. You can see the urgency the last 2 minutes when we had an empty net. If we play play even half that urgency and compete level we blow Vegas out of the water.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Don't make statements without justifying your point. My point is that the Head Coach exists to lead the team with wining strategy. Bednar seems very good at maintaining a winning attitude. He rarely makes snap decisions on players, which I consider a good thing. But Sakic could do that as well. Wat Sakic cannot do is sit behind the bench, see issues and address them in a timely manner. Than again, neither can Bednar. The difference is that Bednar gets paid to make those decisions.

For example, how can we pray for chemistry, then say that the Bednar Blender works? Why do other top teams never use the Blender. The only example I can think of is the Oilers, and...well..nuff said. The best comparison for me is Jurgen Klinsmann in soccer. He is a brilliant Director of Futbol and a simply awful game day coach. Jogi Lowe quietly rans the games for him. Bednar may well be excellent at developing culture, but he is a lousy game managing Head Coach.

While I could site hundreds of examples, just look at the last game. Closely. Notice how Vegas ALWAYS knew our exit strategy and sent guys to the 'secret' places every time. That is because they looked at tape, and adjusted. At least Bednar had a strategy this year, unlike last year. Same with the PP O zone entries. It's either drop it back to the gunner, or complete chaos. And Vegas ( and the rest of the league) have figured out the drop pass. A quality game time coach would have options 2 and 3, and they should all look like option 1. But the Avs don't have that. I can't remember which team, but they figured out the solution: Send two gunners and pass at the past moment. The Avs couldn't double team both gunners, and the puck always made it to the O Zone easily. Having seen that work AGAINST the Avs for an entire game, Bednar still did not adjust, and Mac was triple teams on every entry.

To put it as simply as possible: If you are getting routinely outcoached by Peter DeBoer, you are not a very good coach.

I don't think I should have to justify my point... the team has gotten significantly better during his tenure here. He's unlocked the full potential of Mackinnon and also put Mikko, Makar, and Girard in spots to utilize them incredibly well. Sure his in game adjustments could use improving, but his system when going on full cylinders has this as arguably the team that has the best A+ game in the league. I don't think he's the best coach in the league, but he's one of the better ones and most certainly not a bad coach.

 

[cinchronicity]

The only thing suggesting Bednar isn't good at adjustments is their record when trailing after 2 periods, but this is because they almost never trail after two periods.

They were tied for the 2nd fewest losses when trailing after two periods with 8. They're middle of the pack in winning percentage at 17th when trailing after two, and you gotta think that when the best team in the league is trailing after two periods, they just don't have it that night.

The other numbers suggest Bednar is very good at adjustments. Better than DeBitch and Vegas in all the below categories.

- 6th in NHL in wins when trailing after 1 period
- 2nd in NHL in winning percentage when trailing after 1 period
- 3rd best winning percentage when giving up the first goal

NHL Stats

I'm not going to sit here all day arguing, largely because I respect you as a poster, and I learn a great deal from your posts. That said, for 20 years, I taught statistics for a living, and I can make any statistic say anything I want it to. So can you, as evidenced by these three points.

Causation and correlation are two completely different concepts. Sure, they were 6th in wins when trailing after 1 period. However, they were 1st in the league in regulation wins. So how did they go from 1st to 6th? They had the 1st best winning percentage in the league. So having the third best while trailing after 1 period cannot be evidence of good adjustments. In fact, none of these statistics establish that the result is due to Bednar making adjustments. I posit that all of your stats can be better attributed to individual efforts than coaching adjustments. The fact that DeBoer is behind in these categories really makes my point. DeBoer gets outcoached routinely, except when coaching against Bednar. I'm not trying to be an ass, but you choose to quote statistics, but also chalk up losses to 'the team just not having it that night'. This is not golf, where Koepka or Lefty might not 'have it' for 18 holes. In fact, that explicitly proves my point. There are 18 players on a team. If all 18 'just don't have it that night', then that is the coach's fault. And if it is only 1 or two players who are off, then it is the coach's job to adjust, and by that, I do not mean the Blender.

Also, while unscientific, Bednar has a full week to look at tape, and see Vegas' tendencies. DeBoer had about 12 hours. Yet Vegas figured how how to stop our D Zone exists, and how to corner MacK. I can't see a single thing Bednar learned from having a week longer.

As an experiment, let's count every shot, for both teams, which hit the post as an actual goal. The Avs get clobbered in games 2 and 3. Not dissimilarly, Mikko only needed about a half inch to slide in the tying goal. And if we selectively cheat, and say that only Saad's dink off the post went in, then the Avs are likely 3 - 0 in the series due to puck luck, and without a milligram of adjustment by Bednar while being obviously outplayed for 5 straight periods ( I am certain you agree with that stat.) This is where I submit that any statistic be matched with the eye test.

No less than a dozen people on this forum have stated that Bednar does not want to change anything until he loses. If that is not the definition of not adjusting, I really do not know what is. I don't care if we win every game with JTC as 2C, there is nothing you can do to convince me that he should be 2C.

Again, Bednar might be a terrific Director of Hockey Operations. He stuck with Jost, and it seems like that might pan out to give him a 3C who can occasionally play 2C, as well as a viable replacement for Calvert on the PK. I like the move to put Newhook and Ranta in at home, where we have the last change. However, once the whistle blows, the Avs need a superior game manager, and that is the job of the Head Coach.

 

[avs1dacup]

The fan base felt some PTSD from last nights game watching the Avs blow a lead with 6 minutes left. I know I did. They didnt deserve to win last night but they still had a lead late in the game and blew it and the same culprit from last season was on the ice yet again for the tieing goal. Graves getting in Kadris way last season haunts me still. I have no idea wtf any of Graves, Toews and Soderberg were doing on that tieing goal last night. Soderberg is supposed to be sound defensively but he lets Jonathan Marchessault get by him with ease because hes puck watching Smith. The stupidity of some of these players during crunch time is something to behold.

Idk what Grubauer was doing. The puck goes behind the net and he's a foot off his post. He's on the post, that doesn't go in.

 

[Foppa2118]

I'm not going to sit here all day arguing, largely because I respect you as a poster, and I learn a great deal from your posts. That said, for 20 years, I taught statistics for a living, and I can make any statistic say anything I want it to. So can you, as evidenced by these three points.

Causation and correlation are two completely different concepts. Sure, they were 6th in wins when trailing after 1 period. However, they were 1st in the league in regulation wins. So how did they go from 1st to 6th? They had the 1st best winning percentage in the league. So having the third best while trailing after 1 period cannot be evidence of good adjustments. In fact, none of these statistics establish that the result is due to Bednar making adjustments. I posit that all of your stats can be better attributed to individual efforts than coaching adjustments. The fact that DeBoer is behind in these categories really makes my point. DeBoer gets outcoached routinely, except when coaching against Bednar. I'm not trying to be an ass, but you choose to quote statistics, but also chalk up losses to 'the team just not having it that night'. This is not golf, where Koepka or Lefty might not 'have it' for 18 holes. In fact, that explicitly proves my point. There are 18 players on a team. If all 18 'just don't have it that night', then that is the coach's fault. And if it is only 1 or two players who are off, then it is the coach's job to adjust, and by that, I do not mean the Blender.

Also, while unscientific, Bednar has a full week to look at tape, and see Vegas' tendencies. DeBoer had about 12 hours. Yet Vegas figured how how to stop our D Zone exists, and how to corner MacK. I can't see a single thing Bednar learned from having a week longer.

As an experiment, let's count every shot, for both teams, which hit the post as an actual goal. The Avs get clobbered in games 2 and 3. Not dissimilarly, Mikko only needed about a half inch to slide in the tying goal. And if we selectively cheat, and say that only Saad's dink off the post went in, then the Avs are likely 3 - 0 in the series due to puck luck, and without a milligram of adjustment by Bednar while being obviously outplayed for 5 straight periods ( I am certain you agree with that stat.) This is where I submit that any statistic be matched with the eye test.

No less than a dozen people on this forum have stated that Bednar does not want to change anything until he loses. If that is not the definition of not adjusting, I really do not know what is. I don't care if we win every game with JTC as 2C, there is nothing you can do to convince me that he should be 2C.

Again, Bednar might be a terrific Director of Hockey Operations. He stuck with Jost, and it seems like that might pan out to give him a 3C who can occasionally play 2C, as well as a viable replacement for Calvert on the PK. I like the move to put Newhook and Ranta in at home, where we have the last change. However, once the whistle blows, the Avs need a superior game manager, and that is the job of the Head Coach.

I respect you too but I think you're nitpicking pretty hard with a lot here.

Like criticizing them for being a 1st place team that's 6th in wins when trailing after 1. Especially when they're 2nd in winning percentage. Or taking issue with the idea that when the best team during the regular season is trailing after 2 periods, and has the 2nd fewest losses when trailing after 2, ends up losing, it probably means they're having an off night.

Nobody is going to be 1st in every category. I don't think that's ever happened. And nobody is going to go a full season without a few off nights. Say what you will, but the end result was still that they had the 2nd fewest number of losses when trailing after 2 periods.

I don't think the fact that Bednar doesn't usually change his lineup until he loses (he actually did change his forwards this game) has anything to do with his in game adjustments either. They're two totally different things and pretty much all coaches prefer to keep the same lineup after wins.

I see you taking issue with what I'm saying but I'm not seeing anything that supports what you're saying.

If you don't think the numbers I gave you support that Bednar isn't bad at adjustments, then what supports your argument that he is? If it's just your opinion that's totally fine, but that's not a very strong argument.

 

[cinchronicity]

I don't think I should have to justify my point... the team has gotten significantly better during his tenure here. He's unlocked the full potential of Mackinnon and also put Mikko, Makar, and Girard in spots to utilize them incredibly well. Sure his in game adjustments could use improving, but his system when going on full cylinders has this as arguably the team that has the best A+ game in the league. I don't think he's the best coach in the league, but he's one of the better ones and most certainly not a bad coach.

Just so that I get this straight, you feel that the proof of Bednar's quality is the fact that he utilized 1) a future Hart winner, 2) a future Norris winner, 3) a potential Richard winner and 4) a potential Norris winner some day? Why not toss in Vezina finalist as well? ( though a fighting majority of the goals against Grubi are to his upper glove side, something a coach ought to be able to adjust.)

You know who else arrived since Bednar got here? Grubi, Frankie, Makar, Girard, Toews, Saad, Burakovsky, Nuke, Graves ( the better version from last year), Calvert, LOC Donkskoi and Kadri. That's 13 out of 18 players. I give him credit for successfully ( it seems) developing Jost, and MAYBE making MacK a god. Then again, Jost was a #10 pick (FYI, I have always loved Jost, even in the dark days) and is just now - 4 full seasons since being drafted - looking like an answer for 3C. Makar won the Hobie Baker, the Calder the next year, and is surely a Top3 for the Norris, if not the winner this year. And Bednar has less than zero to do with any of it, aside from writing his name on the scorecard.

I agree that this team, when on full cylinders, has the best A+ game in the NHL. But that is qualifying the statement with the variable 'when running on full cylinders.' Quite frankly, when this team is running on full cylinders, it should win 90% or more of its games with Landy coaching from the ice and no coaches on the bench at all. The sign of a good coach is making adjustments when the team is NOT running on all cylinders.

 

[El Travo]

Or maybe Bednar is simply a terrible coach?

lmao no

 

[The Kingslayer]

Idk what Grubauer was doing. The puck goes behind the net and he's a foot off his post. He's on the post, that doesn't go in.

Fatigue.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Just so that I get this straight, you feel that the proof of Bednar's quality is the fact that he utilized 1) a future Hart winner, 2) a future Norris winner, 3) a potential Richard winner and 4) a potential Norris winner some day? Why not toss in Vezina finalist as well? ( though a fighting majority of the goals against Grubi are to his upper glove side, something a coach ought to be able to adjust.)

You know who else arrived since Bednar got here? Grubi, Frankie, Makar, Girard, Toews, Saad, Burakovsky, Nuke, Graves ( the better version from last year), Calvert, LOC Donkskoi and Kadri. That's 13 out of 18 players. I give him credit for successfully ( it seems) developing Jost, and MAYBE making MacK a god. Then again, Jost was a #10 pick (FYI, I have always loved Jost, even in the dark days) and is just now - 4 full seasons since being drafted - looking like an answer for 3C. Makar won the Hobie Baker, the Calder the next year, and is surely a Top3 for the Norris, if not the winner this year. And Bednar has less than zero to do with any of it, aside from writing his name on the scorecard.

I agree that this team, when on full cylinders, has the best A+ game in the NHL. But that is qualifying the statement with the variable 'when running on full cylinders.' Quite frankly, when this team is running on full cylinders, it should win 90% or more of its games with Landy coaching from the ice and no coaches on the bench at all. The sign of a good coach is making adjustments when the team is NOT running on all cylinders.

Mackinnon was a 55 point player before Bednar got here. His job is to get players playing at their best and play them in a system that utilizes their talents best. He’s done that to a tee. He’s not perfect just like no coach is. But he’s done a damn fine job here.

 

[cinchronicity]

Idk what Grubauer was doing. The puck goes behind the net and he's a foot off his post. He's on the post, that doesn't go in.

Nobody on this forum knocks Grubi more than me. That said, the overhead replay establishes that Grubi pushed out to eliminate angle ( successfully) but as he was trying to get back to the post, the puck hit his ribcage and dropped onto his left leg. So it was his movement toward the goal which put the puck in, NOT the actually shot off his back. Maybe the cause was fatigue. Maybe Soderburg should have challenged Marchessault and not allowed the shot. Regardless of the direction, the team on defense does not want the puck throw from behind the net into the crease. Soda actually lost Marchessault to start the issue, then meandered around as the shot was made. If anyone is at fault for that goal, it is Soda not Grubi.

 

[cinchronicity]

Mackinnon was a 55 point player before Bednar got here. His job is to get players playing at their best and play them in a system that utilizes their talents best. He’s done that to a tee. He’s not perfect just like no coach is. But he’s done a damn fine job here.

Mac won the Calder. He played 4 years behind Duchene. Mac's increase in points dovetails perfectly with him becoming the 1C. Mac's PPG has been fairly consistent at 1.35 since moving to 1C from 2C. So what, precisely, has Bednar done there?