Provorov vs Chabot vs McAvoy vs Werenski

[Sasso09]

Id imagine you have watched less than 5 sens games in your entire life based on your Chabot and Stone takes. Youve never watched a WJC game either.

He's off on Chabot but you're wayyyyy off on Stone from your comments in the Couturier thread. You overrate the shit out of him.

 

[majormajor]

No he doesn't and no he didn't. ESP/60

Try again.

Werenski:
GP 11
G 2
A 3
P 5
ESP 4

Provorov:
GP 9
G 2
A 5
P 7
ESP 3

Provorov is uncharacteristically getting PP points so far but he's also played 2 less games. I expect him to finish with better ESP/60 like he has every year. not to mention the big gap between the two defensively.

There isn't a big gap defensively, both are better than your Rielly type defender but neither are yet shutdown quality. McAvoy is closest to that quality of the 4. And here's the ESP/60 from last year. Werenski at 1.11 P/60 and Provorov at .85 P/60. I'm not even arguing for Werenski here, I'm saying you've exaggerated and misled in your case against him.

 

[Sasso09]

There isn't a big gap defensively, both are better than your Rielly type defender but neither are yet shutdown quality. McAvoy is closest to that quality of the 4. And here's the ESP/60 from last year. Werenski at 1.11 P/60 and Provorov at .85 P/60. I'm not even arguing for Werenski here, I'm saying you've exaggerated and misled in your case against him.

Werenski is nowhere near Provorov or McAvoy defensively, and Provorov is the best of the 3 in that regard.

 

[Sasso09]

Curious to see the same stats from the other three guys if someone more adroit would like to volunteer

 

[NyQuil]

 

[Sasso09]

Not the same stats but impressive none the less. Kid is a beast.

 

[Tripod]

Voted Chabot, but man Provorov has been good this year.

 

[NyQuil]

Voted Chabot, but man Provorov has been good this year.

Yes he has.

It's a pretty good poll really.

 

[Hustlr]

I’d add McAvoy to the Leafs. If I was starting a team though I’d probably have to take any of the other 3 with Chabot as my top choice.

 

[Appleyard]

Voted Chabot, but man Provorov has been good this year.

Same for me.

If Provorov keeps up his play from the beginning of the season all year... he should be getting a top ~10 Norris finish.

Matching up vs top opponents and pretty consistently winning the match-up, while also producing at a great rate.

 

[1865]

Amazing how different Provorov has been. Night and day from last year. Maybe the contract negotiations really were getting to him, but he's been legit a #1 this season.

 

[StoneHands]

Any idea where they got those individual possession stats from? I've always wanted to know how long players have the puck and more importantly how much time they spend in each zone during the game.

Provorov just played 27:08 and 28:06 minutes in back to back nights. That's 55:14 of ice time in 27 hours and he still managed a 59.8% Corsi.

 

[Brucelenok]

Provorov will be the best out of them in the near future IMO. I feel like he is a late bloomer

 

[HyPnOtiK]

Best player of the 4 by the year:

2016-17: Provorov
2017-18: Provorov
2018-19: Chabot
2019-20: Provorov

 

[HyPnOtiK]

Is McAvoy playing injured? I've watched him 3 or 4 times this year and he's looked really really off each time.

 

[Prarievarg]

Chabot >> The rest

 

[StoneHands]

Now that we've hit the quarter pole here is some data to compare these four.

Most common partner:
Werenski - Jones
McAvoy - Chara
Provorov - Niskanen
Chabot - Zaitsev

Total TOI per game:
Chabot: 25.34 (21.22ES - 3:55PP - 0:15SH)
Provorov: 24.16 (19:15ES - 2:54PP - 2:06SH)
Werenski: 23.57 (18:29ES - 3:04PP - 2:22SH)
McAvoy: 22.22 (19:30ES - 1:10PP - 1:40SH)

Points:
Provorov: 13 points (5 at ES)
Chabot: 11 points (8 at ES)
Werenski: 10 points (7 at ES)
McAvoy: 6 points (5 at ES)

5v5 QualComp
McAvoy: 0.6551
Provorov: 0.3438
Werenski: 0.2247
Chabot -0.1282

5v5 OZ Starts
Provorov: 41.54
McAvoy: 46.39
Chabot: 50.00
Werenski: 57.81

5v5 CF%
Provorov: 53.60
McAvoy: 53.02
Werenski: 50.59
Chabot: 45.04

5v5 CF% Rel
Werenski: 2.20
Provorov: 1.92
McAvoy: 1.22
Chabot: -2.64

5v5 GF/60 to GA/60 differential
McAvoy: 1.117
Provorov: 0.198
Werenski: -0.386
Chabot: -0.699

5v5 GF/60 Rel to GA/60 Rel differential
Provorov: 0.78
McAvoy: 0.55
Werenski: -0.06
Chabot: -1.30

5v5 stats pulled from Dobber's Frozen Tools who uses the data from Natural Stattrick. Last updated 11/14/19.

 

[hubnester]

Those stats don't paint a great picture for Chabot. Sheltered and still not great results.

I didn't realize he doesn't PK. 45% CF% is atrocious.

 

[Emerz]

Is McAvoy playing injured? I've watched him 3 or 4 times this year and he's looked really really off each time.

No injury, he seems fine to me, advanced stats posted above match the eye test. Playing against the toughest competition, getting very little PP time or offensive zone starts.

Has only finished a minus in 3 games this year, should probably have a 2-3 goals but that's more of a product of some bad luck.

I think Provorov and McAvoy are clear #1 d-men, while Werenski and Chabot may put up more points but aren't as solid defensively.

 

[StoneHands]

Those stats don't paint a great picture for Chabot. Sheltered and still not great results.

I didn't realize he doesn't PK. 45% CF% is atrocious.

When I first looked at the numbers I assumed it was just because Chabot was on a bad team and getting shelled by other teams top lines all game which Ottawa just can't keep up with. Then I realized that Borowiecki and DeMelo appear to play the toughest minutes but that's probably because Chabot plays teams top lines as well as getting him out there for 3rd and 4th line mismatches while Boro and DeMelo probably just play top 6 lines all game but with fewer minutes. I was surprised to see Chabot not only have a poor CF but also one of the worse CF Rel on the team.

 

[Sting]

When I first looked at the numbers I assumed it was just because Chabot was on a bad team and getting shelled by other teams top lines all game which Ottawa just can't keep up with. Then I realized that Borowiecki and DeMelo appear to play the toughest minutes but that's probably because Chabot plays teams top lines as well as getting him out there for 3rd and 4th line mismatches while Boro and DeMelo probably just play top 6 lines all game but with fewer minutes. I was surprised to see Chabot not only have a poor CF but also one of the worse CF Rel on the team.

Advanced stats never tell the full story. If you were to sit there and tell me Boro and DeMelo are better d-men, you'd be nuts. Similar story in Toronto where Cody Ceci is the advanced stats darling relative to his peers, and yet every Toronto highlight has a Ceci defensive gaffe lol.

The reality is, Chabot doesn't have a lot of good options up front to work with. Compare his numbers last year to this year

 

[Sasso09]

No injury, he seems fine to me, advanced stats posted above match the eye test. Playing against the toughest competition, getting very little PP time or offensive zone starts.

Has only finished a minus in 3 games this year, should probably have a 2-3 goals but that's more of a product of some bad luck.

I think Provorov and McAvoy are clear #1 d-men, while Werenski and Chabot may put up more points but aren't as solid defensively.

Toughest competition but he's facing that with very competent/great line mates. I haven't watched enough of him this year to have an overly strong opinion but i am shocked at the little offense he's producing on that stacked team.

 

[Sasso09]

Chabot >> The rest

Looks like he's clearly last so far this year by the metrics.

 

[Emerz]

Toughest competition but he's facing that with very competent/great line mates. I haven't watched enough of him this year to have an overly strong opinion but i am shocked at the little offense he's producing on that stacked team.

The Bergeron line at even strength doesn’t really utilize the defence as part of their cycling in the offensive zone and he doesn’t get any PP time with them, so that’s kind of why.

 

[NyQuil]

Looks like he's clearly last so far this year by the metrics.

If you're saying that he's clearly on the worst team I'm inclined to agree.