Provorov Or McAvoy?

[blinds]

It's a little disingenuous to just compare raw advanced stats when one team has a +35 goal differential and the other is +0 ~45 games into the season. Everyone on the Bruins is going to look better. For instance, McAvoy + Chara have a 60% CF with Bergeron on the ice and a 50% CF without him on the ice. Who you play with is going to have an enormous impact on these numbers. They're great for comparing players in comparable situations or exemplifying outliers, but straight comparisons like this are skewed. Not to say McAvoy isn't impressive as hell, but comparing these stats across such vastly different teams is going to get you exactly the results you expect. At 5v5, the Bruins are 3rd in CF% and 1st in GF%. The Flyers are 18th and 9th.

I mean, how much of those stats are just because Patrice Bergeron is an advanced stats god? Look at the discrepancy between that pairing's stats with and without Bergeron (216 vs 370 min TOI). 60% vs 50% CF, 56% vs 52% SF, 80% vs 60% GF, 60% vs 53% SCF, 97% vs 93% on ice SV%. Without Chara, his offensive zone starts are 67% (200+ min TOI). These are no doubt great stats, but it's clear Chara + the Bergeron line are pulling him into the elite category. You can see the same thing with Provorov with and without Couturier, but less pronounced.

Don't get me wrong, McAvoy is having a hell of a season and will be a top defender in the league, but I would argue his elite advanced stats have more to do with playing a sheltered role on the best advanced stats team in the league. He's either paired with Chara and playing a lot with the Bergeron line or he's getting insane offensive zone starts. It's a pretty favorable situation (that he's performing exceptionally well in).

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

I voted McAvoy but i agree provorov with chara would be nuts

 

[wintersej]

It's a little disingenuous to just compare raw advanced stats when one team has a +35 goal differential and the other is +0 ~45 games into the season. Everyone on the Bruins is going to look better. For instance, McAvoy + Chara have a 60% CF with Bergeron on the ice and a 50% CF without him on the ice. Who you play with is going to have an enormous impact on these numbers. They're great for comparing players in comparable situations or exemplifying outliers, but straight comparisons like this are skewed. Not to say McAvoy isn't impressive as hell, but comparing these stats across such vastly different teams is going to get you exactly the results you expect. At 5v5, the Bruins are 3rd in CF% and 1st in GF%. The Flyers are 18th and 9th.

I mean, how much of those stats are just because Patrice Bergeron is an advanced stats god? Look at the discrepancy between that pairing's stats with and without Bergeron (216 vs 370 min TOI). 60% vs 50% CF, 56% vs 52% SF, 80% vs 60% GF, 60% vs 53% SCF, 97% vs 93% on ice SV%. Without Chara, his offensive zone starts are 67% (200+ min TOI). These are no doubt great stats, but it's clear Chara + the Bergeron line are pulling him into the elite category. You can see the same thing with Provorov with and without Couturier, but less pronounced.

Don't get me wrong, McAvoy is having a hell of a season and will be a top defender in the league, but I would argue his elite advanced stats have more to do with playing a sheltered role on the best advanced stats team in the league. He's either paired with Chara and playing a lot with the Bergeron line or he's getting insane offensive zone starts. It's a pretty favorable situation (that he's performing exceptionally well in).

Yes. Also, when he is playing with Chara and/or Bergeron they are playing against the other teams top lines. So I don't think "sheltered" is the right term. He is playing against the best with lots of help or playing against the not so great with little help. And in both situations he is killing it. I suppose it would be more impressive if he was playing with no help against top lines and killing it, but not going to get a chance to do that in Boston.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

If anything, their respective situations show both guys trend towards elite because they're adaptable two-way dudes. I love it.

 

[tony d]

Provorov.

 

[FerklundCGY]

There are very, very few arguments in favor of Provorov right now.

McAvoy is a year younger, has better offensive numbers and much better possession stats.

 

[blinds]

There are very, very few arguments in favor of Provorov right now.

McAvoy is a year younger, has better offensive numbers and much better possession stats.

He's paired with Zdeno Chara on the 3rd best possession team in the league with over 200 minutes of 5v5 on the ice with the best possession player/line in the league. When he's not with Chara, he gets 67% offensive zone starts. That's about as ideal a possession scenario as you can come up with for a rookie defenseman.

As far as points, their production at ES is nearly identical at 6 goals, 18 points and 3 goals, 19 points. McAvoy has 2 more powerplay assists. Not much separating them offensively this year.

Provorov has mostly been paired with Andrew MacDonald on the 18th best possession team in the league. Provorov plays about 3 times as much on the PK. Their goalie situations are also opposite ends of the spectrum.

There's plenty of extenuating circumstances to look at beyond the raw numbers. Who you play with and in what situations makes a huge difference, especially for defensemen. Just looking at Corsi and points to compare defensemen on two very different teams isn't a good way to make a comparison (especially when the point totals are nearly the same).

 

[Sasso09]

There are very, very few arguments in favor of Provorov right now.

McAvoy is a year younger, has better offensive numbers and much better possession stats.

Using context, there's very little that doesn't support Provorov over McAvoy

 

[wintersej]

He's paired with Zdeno Chara on the 3rd best possession team in the league with over 200 minutes of 5v5 on the ice with the best possession player/line in the league. When he's not with Chara, he gets 67% offensive zone starts. That's about as ideal a possession scenario as you can come up with for a rookie defenseman.

As far as points, their production at ES is nearly identical at 6 goals, 18 points and 3 goals, 19 points. McAvoy has 2 more powerplay assists. Not much separating them offensively this year.

Provorov has mostly been paired with Andrew MacDonald on the 18th best possession team in the league. Provorov plays about 3 times as much on the PK. Their goalie situations are also opposite ends of the spectrum.

There's plenty of extenuating circumstances to look at beyond the raw numbers. Who you play with and in what situations makes a huge difference, especially for defensemen. Just looking at Corsi and points to compare defensemen on two very different teams isn't a good way to make a comparison (especially when the point totals are nearly the same).

Yes, but giving the arguments for McAvoy asterisks does not automatically make an argument for Provorov, either. Two months ago, Provorov would be killing it in this poll. McAvoy has earned his right to be in the elite young D conversation with Provorov/Werenski/et al. Trying to distinguish between them all is just impossible this early in their careers and can come down to team needs. Handedness probably plays a little bit into McAvoy's favor, but if they both come close to their ceilings we are talking about elite #1D men.

 

[Sasso09]

I keep seeing this. Only Chara faces tougher minutes than McAvoy on the Bruins. And thats only because McAvoy plays with Chara AND also gets extra shifts with Krug and Gryzleck in offensive situations.

Not sure how you can blame McAvoy for being on a good team. And. To be clear. He is a HUGE part of that team going from a bubble team to a contender. HUGE.

The only one on Philly who plays tougher minutes than Ivan is no one. .. while lugging around a garbage partner until recently and playing for a poor possession team. McAvoy plays with a rock in chara with a 3rd of the PK time and loads of offensive zone starts. McAvoy is very sheltered compared to Provorov .

 

[Sasso09]

Except he does. He's on the top pair of the #1 GA team in the league and is top 3 in the league in 5v5 TOI/gm.

Provorov CFrel = -0.7, McAvoy CFrel = 2.8

McAvoy is outscoring Provorov and is better defensively. He is another Doughty

Team stats

 

[Sasso09]

Here's a quick glance at how they're doing at 5v5 and how they rank against other defensemen in the league with at least 500 minutes of 5v5 TOI.

McAvoy:
CF% - 55.13 (8th)
GF% - 64.52 (3rd)
SCF% - 56.04 (6th)
HDCF% - 53.51 (42nd)

Provorov:
CF% - 48.66 (102nd)
GF% - 51.79 (68th)
SCF% - 46.63 (116th)
HDCF% - 47.42 (106th)

Context

Missing

Try harder

 

[wintersej]

The only one on Philly who plays tougher minutes than Ivan is no one. .. while lugging around a garbage partner until recently and playing for a poor possession team. McAvoy plays with a rock in chara with a 3rd of the PK time and loads of offensive zone starts. McAvoy is very sheltered compared to Provorov .

"Sheltered" is the wrong term. He is literally on the pairing that goes out against Crosby et al. Just like Provorov. You keep bringing up zone starts. The whole Bruins team has great zone starts. McAvoy is second on the team in Defensive Zone Start %. Yes. The Flyers suck. Yes. The Bruins are good. That isn't by itself an argument for Provorov at all.

Provorov is certainly on an island more than McAvoy. So is someone like Ristolainen. Ristolainen has harder deployments than Provorov. Does that mean that Risto is better than Provorov? Of course not. If a Buffalo fan told you that you would think he was high. Yet, that is the argument you are making.

Provorov doing worse than McAvoy but playing with a crappy partner doesn't make an argument for either one.

 

[McDNicks17]

Context

Missing

Try harder

I'm curious what your case for Provorov looks like.

 

[FlyTimmo]

I'm curious what your case for for Provorov looks like.

You are talking to the wrong guy, if that is what you are looking for.

 

[whitstifier]

The most available data screams McAvoy. Look at the ole h-r page and you'd conclude that McAvoy is much better.

I don't think that a side by side look at raw CORSI digs deep enough into context for a useful comparison. Right now, I just know that both defenders are great players. It's a mistake to put one down to pump the other up. Waste of time. Whoever screams the loudest will win

 

[The Jones Zone]

The eye test says McAvoy, Bruins fans should be ecstatic to have landed him

 

[WJCJ]

He's paired with Zdeno Chara on the 3rd best possession team in the league with over 200 minutes of 5v5 on the ice with the best possession player/line in the league. When he's not with Chara, he gets 67% offensive zone starts. That's about as ideal a possession scenario as you can come up with for a rookie defenseman.

As far as points, their production at ES is nearly identical at 6 goals, 18 points and 3 goals, 19 points. McAvoy has 2 more powerplay assists. Not much separating them offensively this year.

Provorov has mostly been paired with Andrew MacDonald on the 18th best possession team in the league. Provorov plays about 3 times as much on the PK. Their goalie situations are also opposite ends of the spectrum.

There's plenty of extenuating circumstances to look at beyond the raw numbers. Who you play with and in what situations makes a huge difference, especially for defensemen. Just looking at Corsi and points to compare defensemen on two very different teams isn't a good way to make a comparison (especially when the point totals are nearly the same).

McAvoy plays in additional offensive situations that Chara does not play in any longer, that is a one huge reason why he has more offensive zone starts without Chara. McAvoy plays in all situations, Chara no longer plays in all situations.

Nothing against Provorov who I like a lot, but I will take McAvoy but I'd rather have both.

 

[whitstifier]

The eye test says McAvoy, Bruins fans should be ecstatic to have landed him

McAvoy vs. Werenski?

That'd fall into a similar discussion. Possession metrics scream Werenski. Boston fans might counter with preference for McAvoy's play in his own zone. McAvoy also doesn't play with the possession god Seth Jones

 

[Tripod]

Like choosing Lobster or Steak. Can't go wrong with either. Elite D men. Stats watchers will never know just how good these 2 are without watching them play.

Only seeing them play will do them any justice.

Ideally, you have the surf and turf and have both!

 

[BB88]

I'm curious how McAvoy will do when not babysat by Chara. Is he another Ekblad?

McAvoy can actually skate and plays against the best game after game.

 

[BruinLVGA]

The eye test says McAvoy, Bruins fans should be ecstatic to have landed him

Believe you me: we are.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

I find it interesting that the last couple of years Chara has been seen as this aging former star dman who is declining but can still play at a pretty good level despite some increasing flaws like footspeed. There's always someone who says "Chara sucks these days" and then someone responds "oh come on, he's still a top 4 guy".

Now that he's playing with McAvoy, people talk like Chara is a top 5 dman in the league, he's a "rock" and "babysits" McAvoy.

From the games i've seen, it wouldn't be a stretch to call McAvoy the better dman 5 on 5, and Chara being the guy who compliments him very well and not the other way around.

 

[FlyTimmo]

I find it interesting that the last couple of years Chara has been seen as this aging former star dman who is declining but can still play at a pretty good level despite some increasing flaws like footspeed. There's always someone who says "Chara sucks these days" and then someone responds "oh come on, he's still a top 4 guy".

Now that he's playing with McAvoy, people talk like Chara is a top 5 dman in the league, he's a "rock" and "babysits" McAvoy.

From the games i've seen, it wouldn't be a stretch to call McAvoy the better dman 5 on 5, and Chara being the guy who compliments him very well and not the other way around.

All it takes is one thread about Chara doing a 4 minute shift and he is a monster again. People don't have enough time to watch all these games.

 

[DrJustice]

It's a little disingenuous to just compare raw advanced stats when one team has a +35 goal differential and the other is +0 ~45 games into the season. Everyone on the Bruins is going to look better. For instance, McAvoy + Chara have a 60% CF with Bergeron on the ice and a 50% CF without him on the ice. Who you play with is going to have an enormous impact on these numbers. They're great for comparing players in comparable situations or exemplifying outliers, but straight comparisons like this are skewed. Not to say McAvoy isn't impressive as hell, but comparing these stats across such vastly different teams is going to get you exactly the results you expect. At 5v5, the Bruins are 3rd in CF% and 1st in GF%. The Flyers are 18th and 9th.

I mean, how much of those stats are just because Patrice Bergeron is an advanced stats god? Look at the discrepancy between that pairing's stats with and without Bergeron (216 vs 370 min TOI). 60% vs 50% CF, 56% vs 52% SF, 80% vs 60% GF, 60% vs 53% SCF, 97% vs 93% on ice SV%. Without Chara, his offensive zone starts are 67% (200+ min TOI). These are no doubt great stats, but it's clear Chara + the Bergeron line are pulling him into the elite category. You can see the same thing with Provorov with and without Couturier, but less pronounced.

Don't get me wrong, McAvoy is having a hell of a season and will be a top defender in the league, but I would argue his elite advanced stats have more to do with playing a sheltered role on the best advanced stats team in the league. He's either paired with Chara and playing a lot with the Bergeron line or he's getting insane offensive zone starts. It's a pretty favorable situation (that he's performing exceptionally well in).

I agree that most of these advanced statistics are more team based in the overall numbers and in short sample sizes, but I think you are trying too hard to take away credit when it's not really necessary. There is a reason that McAvoy gets to play in all those situations with Chara and Bergeron, and that's cause he is our best overall defenceman. If you watch Chara-McAvoy play together, McAvoy is the one responsible for getting the puck out of the defensive zone (something Chara has become worse and worse at over time) and starting the transition with his excellent skating and passing skills. I'd argue he has a better argument for driving that pair overall, while Chara helps Charlie on the defensive side of the puck.

He doesn't PK much at all because of Carlo (who never came close to looking as good as McAvoy on the top pair last year) is a better PKer and so is Miller/McQuaid. If he was playing 5-on-5, PP and PK he'd be close to 30 minutes a game. So the coach uses him on the power-play and in offensive situations because his skills there are second only to Krug, or else he'd also be on the top power-play and likely have even more points than he already does (something you could argue for Provorov as well)

So I'd argue that it's not that McAvoy is being sheltered and playing with elite teammates that he manages to accumulate these numbers, but it's because of his talents and skill that the Coach puts him in these situations and as you said is performing exceptionally well. Not many players ever just get handed all this responsibility without having earned them, and he certinally has. If McAvoy wasn't on the Bruins, they wouldn't be even close to having all of these top advanced statistics.

I understand the general theme of your post and it is certainly an interesting argument, but we disagree on how to interpret these numbers it seems.