Prospect Info: Prospect Tournament

[Hoog]

Listen, this is nothing negative because I think they will all be fine but, thank God Steve saw what I see, and thats that these prospects aren't ready and need some time. Besides Elmer, AlJo, and Ed these young guys need at least a year of grooming. Everyone of them needs to do some refining and this prospect tourney really showed that. I think it's why Steve signed so many vets this off season. Yea, they had their moments but no consistency what so ever. Lets give them a season and hopefully they will be fine.

 

[Oddbob]

People need to chill, I watched every minute of all 3 games, here's a few takeaways.

The good:

Danielson - Faceoff god, has some nice dangles, good playmaker, nasty shot and good skater. I like his tools for future 2C in the NHL and his offensive upside is questionable- i see a 20g30assist C whos defensively solid and amazing on Draws, this is a good pick. Future A on his jersey

Wallinder - Very calm, collected and skates like the wind. Head always up and played well defensively, I feel coaching told him to prioritize D over offense as he didn't produce much.

Kasper - Gritty, pest, playoff performer, goes hard to the net, really annoying to play against, good skater, solid on draws, I think hes our future 3C and danielson at 2C. I see a Brad marchand lite, with better skating and faceoffs but worse offensively. 40ish point C at the NHL level.

Hanas - sleeper pick, his shot is gross. I see a future 25-30 goal guy playing on our 2nd line on and PP2 on the right wall just lasering snipes on the PP. Very excited for him given where he was taken.

Mazur - hopefully his injury isnt too serious, he looks like bertuzzi 2.0 with better skating and loves to piss people off. Add a few lbs of muscle we have a top 6 fwd in the NHL.

Lombardi - insane skill, great skating, but got knocked off the puck a lot, seriously needs to hit the weight room hard and i doubt hes a C at the NHL level. I see a smaller Barzal honestly, the skill and upside is high, but feel hes gonna be a winger. steal for a 4th rounder, be patient and he will impress.

Soderblom - too good for that level, his hands are filthy. NHL ready in my opinion and can score 20-25 goals but needs to be more physical. He plays like a small skill fwd but if he can develop a mean streak ohh boy watchout.

The Bad:
Cossa - 1 period he looked absolutely elite, flashing the glove, his D played pretty bad and half the goals arent on him. I feel hes over confident at times but when he lets a few in he gives up on himself totally. Give him time, goalies are tricky. Not ideal but some overreacting here.

Gibson - pretty raw physical D man but he had a lot of bad giveaways, not sure he was worth a high 2nd round pick but hes so young, give him time.

Bottom 4 D were all bad, I did like that one guy who just crushed everyone and fought ppl (name started with a P?). We were missing Mazur, and danielson for some games. Fantilli looks amazing which is pain. Mastrosimone on the other team was getting destroyed which was funny lol.

If both Kasper and Danielson are only a 40 and 50 pt players respectively, we are in big trouble. Good to great defence can only cover so much if there is no offence that comes with it. Copp is a 40-50 pt player, so if either or both of them are only that, we don't have anything good up front.

Unstructured play tends to favor players with physical talent and good skating. Hockey IQ tends to be less of a factor with chemistry being non existent.

It's not surprising at all that Joey did well, and without looking it up, AA probably did as well. The slower skaters tend to really stick out in a bad way, like Cotton last season.

This is my feeling with Lombardi. Flashy in this environment, but worried he won't be anything of note at the NHL level.

 

[Oddbob]

I think that taking Augustine so early was a bit of a tell on where the organization is right now with Cossa. I am not suggesting they are giving up on him, but I don't think they were comfortable with Cossa being their one shot at a legit #1 goalie.

I don't think it means much. You take goalies when you think there is chance they will be something, regardless of pipeline. New Jersey had Brodeur forever, so no need for anything other than a 5-10 game goalie was needed, but they kept drafting goalies, and a lot of them made the NHL even if they weren't all great.

Pretty much every goalie is taking at least 5 years before they see significant NHL action. Not very many that are anything more than a backup before then.

 

[GoBoltz56]

I think that taking Augustine so early was a bit of a tell on where the organization is right now with Cossa. I am not suggesting they are giving up on him, but I don't think they were comfortable with Cossa being their one shot at a legit #1 goalie.

Agreed

 

[Run the Jewels]

I don't think it means much. You take goalies when you think there is chance they will be something, regardless of pipeline. New Jersey had Brodeur forever, so no need for anything other than a 5-10 game goalie was needed, but they kept drafting goalies, and a lot of them made the NHL even if they weren't all great.

Pretty much every goalie is taking at least 5 years before they see significant NHL action. Not very many that are anything more than a backup before then.

I think there's a difference between drafting goalies in the third round or later and drafting them in the 1st or 2nd round. If you are spending one of your best picks on a goalie you probably feel like there is a need in your organization. The last quality goalie we drafted was Mrazek in 2010. With Cossa we moved up and obviously felt he was the best goalie in that draft class. Augustine was the third goalie taken in this last draft.

Now if you have your #1 then sure, draft goalies late in the draft and if one hits then go ahead and trade him, but we have absolutely nothing guaranteed at the goalie position right now. Is there another team that has taken a goalie in the first two rounds in such close proximity to each other?

 

[lilidk]

If Kasper is a Marchand-lite, then I would rather him being on wing to Danielson. Danielson would be our Bergeron and Kasper is the Marchand of the team. No, I am not saying that is their projection, just an analogy.

If we have Danielson as a legit 2c with very high potential as a 1c, then Kasper can be 2c if we don't have one, but putting him on the wing with Danielson would be a somewhat replication of boston's best duo in the past 20+ years. I wouldn't gobe opposed....

I still think Lombardi is a winger because of size. He adds 20 lbs of muscle then nevermind I suppose (is he good at faceoffs?). If you just have that guy focus on offense with 70% effort on defense on the wing of Kasper/Danielson, then you got a pretty decent 2/3's of a line that can score and piss people off at the same time.

Kasper is not Marchand, he is not as skilled or nesty ., probably Tom Wilson.
Anyway , I think it's good idea to have Danielson playing with Kasper

 

[RED WINGS STOMP]

Explain to me how a+b+c+d=e here… because I don’t get it.

Love this! Exactly why I was so high on the guy during the draft process. A lot of strong tools to develop a top notch player. But all anyone can do is point to his production on a bad junior team last year.

 

[Geezer WC]

Sounds like it was shinny with some refs and suits behind the bench showing up.

 

[Astyanax]

@Henkka , If you're dead set on looking for another potential parallel development path then look at Devan Dubnyk.

WHL goalie. Drafted 14th overall in his draft year.
Solid draft season numbers. Decreased statistical value in his D+1 and D+2.
Mostly full time ECHLer in his D+3 with a couple of mediocre games in the AHL.
Mediocre AHL backup his D+4.
Mediocre AHL starter his D+5.
Poor NHL backup his D+6.
Didn't really do much until his D+11.

Devan Dubnyk - Wikipedia

Sadly, this is what I fear. I never hated the pick, but I thought it was ridiculous to move up to take him. I personally preferred Wallstedt, but hey. I always think any goalie in the first is a mistake, but doubling down to move up is 2x wrong. First you took goalie, but moreover you traded assets to so so.

 

[Gniwder]

This is my feeling with Lombardi. Flashy in this environment, but worried he won't be anything of note at the NHL level.

Well, showing something is always better than showing nothing.

The organization has done well with bulking kids up. He just needs to gain a few pounds, I think he'll wind up a middle 6 winger, which is fine for a 4th rounder. Something like Fabbri with knees (lol).

 

[Astyanax]

Listen, this is nothing negative because I think they will all be fine but, thank God Steve saw what I see, and thats that these prospects aren't ready and need some time. Besides Elmer, AlJo, and Ed these young guys need at least a year of grooming. Everyone of them needs to do some refining and this prospect tourney really showed that. I think it's why Steve signed so many vets this off season. Yea, they had their moments but no consistency what so ever. Lets give them a season and hopefully they will be fine.

Well, exactly it is a prospect tournament. They all need more time. I'll say it about Kasper, just like I said it about ed last year, and wallinder, they all need more time. We are not good. Let them play out.
We are not on the cusp and the rookies won't really help much.
Of course, the additions mean we also won't threaten for a top pick.
..

 

[Astyanax]

Well, showing something is always better than showing nothing.

The organization has done well with bulking kids up. He just needs to gain a few pounds, I think he'll wind up a middle 6 winger, which is fine for a 4th rounder. Something like Fabbri with knees (lol).

Hey, don't bring Howard into this. He did that on his own

 

[Snuggs]

Pretty terrible tournament honestly. Nothing went well. Churching up bad play isn't real scouting or anything. There wasn't much to take away from this imo.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Explain to me how a+b+c+d=e here… because I don’t get it.

E was the foregone conclusion made by NHL pundits six months ago and inceptioned into the HFboards collective consciousness. A + B + C + D are the positive impressions fans get actually watching a prospect for the first time now that he belongs to their team.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Someone mentioned something in the Cossa thread on the mains that made me wince a bit.

Generally, if an NHL goalie prospect doesn't have a top 10 AHL season as a goalie when passing through there they don't often make it to the NHL as a full timer. So basically Cossa needs to come in and have a stellar season or it could have a major negative impact on his overall projection.

I think you are overstating this a bit. A lot of the NA-born goalies in the league spent meaningful time in the AHL and even yo-yoed between the AHL and NHL before finally sticking. If you are sticking in the AHL in a D+3 year, you are where you should be. Oettinger and Swayman had relatively quick paths but they seem to be in the minority.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I think you are overstating this a bit. A lot of the NA-born goalies in the league spent meaningful time in the AHL and even yo-yoed between the AHL and NHL before finally sticking. If you are sticking in the AHL in a D+3 year, you are where you should be. Oettinger and Swayman had relatively quick paths but they seem to be in the minority.

How many guys came into the AHL and had a mediocre to bad season their first season and became starters in the NHL? The only two I can think of are Stuart Skinner and Devan Dubnyk. Not exactly the guys I would want on a team trying to make deep playoff runs.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

How many guys came into the AHL and had a mediocre to bad season their first season and became starters in the NHL? The only two I can think of are Stuart Skinner and Devan Dubnyk. Not exactly the guys I would want on a team trying to make deep playoff runs.

You gauging that on wins or save percentage? I don't watch nearly as much AHL hockey as I once did and can't speak to each goalie.

Intuitively I would expect that you need to play well in the AHL (not just play in the AHL) to earn a call up and then stick in the NHL.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

You gauging that on wins or save percentage? I don't watch nearly as much AHL hockey as I once did and can't speak to each goalie.

A bit of both, and it really is a strong indicator of future success for a goalie. Just at a glance of some top goalie prospects over the previous 20 years, it looks like if the player doesn't have a good rookie season in the AHL it's an indicator they won't be a very good NHLer. I'm seeing a lot of names like Jonathan Bernier, Skinner, Dubnyk, Jack Campbell, Ben Bishop as goalies that didn't have solid AHL rookie campaigns and took extra time to get there.

Even if Bishop, Campbell, Bernier and Dubnyk had good seasons in their late 20s to early 30s, if it takes that long for a player you drafted 7+ years and their 3rd team to develop then it's a wasted pick.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I think that taking Augustine so early was a bit of a tell on where the organization is right now with Cossa. I am not suggesting they are giving up on him, but I don't think they were comfortable with Cossa being their one shot at a legit #1 goalie.

I think it is also a function of the number of second round picks we had last year. If we had a single 2nd rounder, I am not sure we take him personally.

 

[Gniwder]

E was the foregone conclusion made by NHL pundits six months ago and inceptioned into the HFboards collective consciousness. A + B + C + D are the positive impressions fans get actually watching a prospect for the first time now that he belongs to their team.

The same E that had Seider placed as a mid teen pick, lol.

If the skill sets are there, I'll trust Stevie on this one. His top picks have been pretty solid.

I think it is also a function of the number of second round picks we had last year. If we had a single 2nd rounder, I am not sure we take him personally.

Well, I'd have taken 2 goalies instead of Cleveland. Goalies are unfortunately a necessity, a defenseman with no puck skills isn't.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

A bit of both, and it really is a strong indicator of future success for a goalie. Just at a glance of some top goalie prospects over the previous 20 years, it looks like if the player doesn't have a good rookie season in the AHL it's an indicator they won't be a very good NHLer. I'm seeing a lot of names like Jonathan Bernier, Skinner, Dubnyk, Jack Campbell, Ben Bishop as goalies that didn't have solid AHL rookie campaigns and took extra time to get there.

Even if Bishop, Campbell, Bernier and Dubnyk had good seasons in their late 20s to early 30s, if it takes that long for a player you drafted 7+ years and their 3rd team to develop then it's a wasted pick.

There are definitely a lot of guys with save percentages north of .900. He is going to need to play well in the AHL. I agree with you on that.

 

[Henkka]

If Kasper is "marchand" and Danielson will be "bergeron", who'll be our "pastrnak" ?

Raymond ?

 

[lidstromiscool]

If Kasper is "marchand" and Danielson will be "bergeron", who'll be our "pastrnak" ?

Raymond ?

I don't think there is anyone in the organization with the ceiling of Pastrnak, or Marchand/Bergeron for that matter.

 

[Henkka]

I don't think there is anyone in the organization with the ceiling of Pastrnak, or Marchand/Bergeron for that matter.

21-year old Marchand scored 59 points at 79 AHL games. On his DY+3 season.

That's good measuring point for 19-year old Kasper, who is starting his DY+2 season now. 19-year old Marchand was starting a season at QMJHL at same age.

Pastrnak scored 53 points on his first 97 NHL games, 2 split seasons combined, before turning 20 years old.
Raymond scored 57 points in 82 games, on his DY+2 year, before turning 20 years old.

- David Pastrnak had 123 points in 172 games (0.715 ppg), before turning 21-year old.
- Lucas Raymond had 102 points in 156 games (0.654 ppg), before turning 21-year old.

It's not that far from comparison. It's very surprising to see. Raymond just will need the next step to jump to stardom.

Patrice Bergeron came from the strongest entry draft (2003) ever, and what a coincidence, this Danielson guy is coming from probably strongest draft since 2015.

Bergeron started from NHL at 18-year old, but thanks to 2005-06 lockout, he had to play that 19-year old DY+2 season at AHL. That's a good comparison for 19-year old Danielson at season 2024-25.

We'll see what future will become.

But I'm quite sure, no one was predicting Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak becoming absolute superstars at same point of careers as our kids are now.

They were 2nd + 2nd + mid 1st round picks, who took absolute huge developmental steps afterwards on their careers.

Our guys are 8th, 9th and 4th overalls.

 

[Cake Eater]

21-year old Marchand scored 59 points at 79 AHL games. On his DY+3 season.

That's good measuring point for 19-year old Kasper, who is starting his DY+2 season now. 19-year old Marchand was starting a season at QMJHL at same age.

Pastrnak scored 53 points on his first 97 NHL games, 2 split seasons combined, before turning 20 years old.
Raymond scored 57 points in 82 games, on his DY+2 year, before turning 20 years old.

- David Pastrnak had 123 points in 172 games (0.715 ppg), before turning 21-year old.
- Lucas Raymond had 102 points in 156 games (0.654 ppg), before turning 21-year old.

It's not that far from comparison. It's very surprising to see. Raymond just will need the next step to jump to stardom.

Patrice Bergeron came from the strongest entry draft (2003) ever, and what a coincidence, this Danielson guy is coming from probably strongest draft since 2015.

Bergeron started from NHL at 18-year old, but thanks to 2005-06 lockout, he had to play that 19-year old DY+2 season at AHL. That's a good comparison for 19-year old Danielson at season 2024-25.

We'll see what future will become.

But I'm quite sure, no one was predicting Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak becoming absolute superstars at same point of careers as our kids are now.

They were 2nd + 2nd + mid 1st round picks, who took absolute huge developmental steps aftwerwards on their careers.

Our guys are 8th, 9th and 4th overalls.

I just see Raymond closer to his top level potential rn as Pasta was at the same age.