Prospect Thread XIX

[Tiranis]

Continue. Previous thread is here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1459693

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[Wisp]

Interesting that they feel Subban is our next best after Corrado, then there is nobody.

uh oh, now you've gone and opened an old wound.

For context, Prospectus' draft board had Jordan Subban going in the second round, six picks ahead of Morin (who went 11th). Corrado and Subban form the top end on defense, from his perspective.

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1538

 

[Royal Canuck]

Yeah, we don't have a big core of defensemen, I still think we should've drafted more defensemen in the higher rounds this season.

Maybe next year.

 

[Pip]

Yeah, we don't have a big core of defensemen, I still think we should've drafted more defensemen in the higher rounds this season.

Maybe next year.

I think our orgazational depth on D is decent (for prospects), and I think we are weakest on the wing tbh. I was more suprised that:

1)They thought Subban was anywhere near Corrado
2)They thought Subban was our second best defensive prospect
3)That nobody was close to Subban or Corrado.

 

[thepuckmonster]

I think our orgazational depth on D is decent (for prospects), and I think we are weakest on the wing tbh

Agree.

 

[Rey]

draft more centers, and if they can't pan out as centers, move them to wing. problem sovled

 

[Royal Canuck]

draft more centers, and if they can't pan out as centers, move them to wing. problem sovled

and if they can't pan out as wingers?

It's tough to "pan out" when your Top-6 centers are Henrik Sedin and Ryan Kesler.

 

[Pip]

draft more centers, and if they can't pan out as centers, move them to wing. problem sovled

Depends, I would ideally like to draft versatile players, because not everyone can transition to wing easily.

 

[Nuckles]

and if they can't pan out as wingers?

It's tough to "pan out" when your Top-6 centers are Henrik Sedin and Ryan Kesler.

Then trade them for wingers. Centers are usually more valuable than wingers.

 

[Bankerguy]

I read that Gaunce can play LW and that he's really good on the boards. I also read that Shinkaruk actually plays on the LW sometimes..

Can anyone confirm if this is true?

I'd imagine that shinkaruk WOULD be a winger at the pro level...
It be nice if both him and Gaunce can be effective on the LW since Jensen and Kassian are strictly RWs.

 

[Nuckles]

I know it's too early to tell where prospects will be ranked for next year's draft, but I do agree that we should start drafting d-men with our 1st and/or 2nd round picks. D-men take longer to develop, and our current core of defensemen are signed for the next 3-5 years.

The last defenseman we drafted in the first 2 rounds was Yann Sauve back in 2008.

 

[Pip]

I know it's too early to tell where prospects will be ranked for next year's draft, but I do agree that we should start drafting d-men with our 1st and/or 2nd round picks. D-men take longer to develop, and our current core of defensemen are signed for the next 3-5 years.

The last defenseman we drafted in the first 2 rounds was Yann Sauve back in 2008.

I don't necessarily agree. I think we have done well with picking defensemen later on in the draft. I would go to argue that our long term outlook is better for our backend than our forwards. I think, considering our most recent couple drafts, that centre is our strongest position, but imo we lack depth on the wings.

This obviously could change depending on the progression (or lack of) in the cases of our prospects, but looking to next year I see no reason to prioritize a defenseman over a forward. Edler, Corrado, and Tanev are going to be here for a long time and we have a good number of guys that can carve out NHL careers.

 

[Wisp]

I read that Gaunce can play LW and that he's really good on the boards. I also read that Shinkaruk actually plays on the LW sometimes..

Can anyone confirm if this is true?

I'd imagine that shinkaruk WOULD be a winger at the pro level...
It be nice if both him and Gaunce can be effective on the LW since Jensen and Kassian are strictly RWs.

Gaunce played most of the playoffs on the wing last year.

Shinkaruk isn't even a center right now. He's only played wing in Major Junior and hasn't played it since Bantam

 

[Wisp]

I've always felt the Canucks were a team that found good defensemen in the couch cushions. I don't think it's a pressing need right now and think some of the overlooked names will reveal themselves as gems in the next year or so.

 

[arsmaster*]

I know it's too early to tell where prospects will be ranked for next year's draft, but I do agree that we should start drafting d-men with our 1st and/or 2nd round picks. D-men take longer to develop, and our current core of defensemen are signed for the next 3-5 years.

The last defenseman we drafted in the first 2 rounds was Yann Sauve back in 2008.

What does it matter where you are drafting them if they prove to be better than most taken ahead (Corrado).

Don't believe in the idea of drafting for position in the 1st round.

It's a deep OHL crop at forward this year. I'd be willing to bet money we take a player from there with our 1st.

 

[ItsAllPartOfThePlan]

Losing Price really hurts here. Sucks as I had him having a good year in the AHL

 

[Luck 6]

It's silly to draft defensemen in the 1st round if you ask me, I'm glad Gillis employs this same principle (or at least appears to). Defensemen take longer to develop, for this reason it's easier to find gems in the later rounds. With forwards it's much more "what you see is what you get" by their draft year, so to speak. If we can find defensemen with top 4 upside in rounds beyond the 1st, I'd say reserve that pick for a top forward and keep looking for defensemen in the 2nd round and beyond. If you were to look at the top 30 defensemen in the league, I'd guess that maybe only half of them were 1st rounders. Try that same exercise with forwards and I bet the results are dramatically different.

 

[synobyte]

Got me some giants vs Medicine Hat tix right beside the tigers bench gonna be sitting right beside shinkaruk. Whoevers there on nov 15 let's make some noise

 

[Pip]

Got me some giants vs Medicine Hat tix right beside the tigers bench gonna be sitting right beside shinkaruk. Whoevers there on nov 15 let's make some noise

I'm planning on going, should be awesome

 

[Bleach Clean]

What does it matter where you are drafting them if they prove to be better than most taken ahead (Corrado).

Don't believe in the idea of drafting for position in the 1st round.

It's a deep OHL crop at forward this year. I'd be willing to bet money we take a player from there with our 1st.

OHL forward 1st round, WHL Dman after that, somewhere. Just like how COL does it.

Canucks prioritize forwards in the 1st round. I expect it to continue.

It's silly to draft defensemen in the 1st round if you ask me, I'm glad Gillis employs this same principle (or at least appears to). Defensemen take longer to develop, for this reason it's easier to find gems in the later rounds. With forwards it's much more "what you see is what you get" by their draft year, so to speak. If we can find defensemen with top 4 upside in rounds beyond the 1st, I'd say reserve that pick for a top forward and keep looking for defensemen in the 2nd round and beyond. If you were to look at the top 30 defensemen in the league, I'd guess that maybe only half of them were 1st rounders. Try that same exercise with forwards and I bet the results are dramatically different.

Yup. Projection is much better for forwards. Take a look at the following article:

http://smashville247.net/index.php/...d-defense-comparison-nashville-predators.html

There are some links within that are also good reads.

Unless there is a great Dman dropping that warrants changing strategy, I too hope the Canucks stick to their methodology. I also hope that forward is again something similar to what Horvat represents.

 

[m9]

I've been fairly adamant on the topic of drafting almost strictly forwards in the first round , which I'm glad Gillis seems to be on the same page as. Integrate defense starting in the 2nd round, and then goaltenders in the 5th round or later.

 

[thefeebster]

So that Biosteel camp started today and the highlights are up if you are interested (warning for music)



Briefly, i think there is a Gaunce medicine ball throw. Two Canucks pants during the on ice session. I believe the Blue jersey RHS is Tanev, Grey LHS is Gaunce. Tanev scores on a nice feed from Stamkos. Gaunce makes a nice pass to Hodgson for a goal. Then Tanev scores another i believe.

 

[Pip]

I can't see Cammalleri ever now without thinking of that amazing commercial he was in. Anyways, thanks for the video, glad to know they're working with some pros.

 

[Blue Suede Shoes]

It's silly to draft defensemen in the 1st round if you ask me, I'm glad Gillis employs this same principle (or at least appears to). Defensemen take longer to develop, for this reason it's easier to find gems in the later rounds. With forwards it's much more "what you see is what you get" by their draft year, so to speak. If we can find defensemen with top 4 upside in rounds beyond the 1st, I'd say reserve that pick for a top forward and keep looking for defensemen in the 2nd round and beyond. If you were to look at the top 30 defensemen in the league, I'd guess that maybe only half of them were 1st rounders. Try that same exercise with forwards and I bet the results are dramatically different.

Top-20 Defensemen in terms of scoring

2012-2013
1 P.K. Subban 2 43rd
2 Kris Letang 3 62nd
3 Ryan Suter 1 7th
4 Andrei Markov 6 162nd
5 Keith Yandle 4 105
6 Niklas Kronwall 1 29th
7 Kimmo Timonen 10 250th
8 Cody Franson 3 79th
9 Shea Weber 2 49th
10 Dion Phaneuf 1 9th
11 Dustin Byfuglien 8 245th
12 Brian Campbell 6 156th
13 Justin Schultz 2 43rd
14 Mark Streit 9 262nd
15 Duncan Keith 2 54th
16 Sergei Gonchar 1 14th
17 Alex Goligoski 2 61st
18 Mike Green 1 29th
19 Slava Voynov 2 32nd
20 Francois Beauchemin 3 75th

Average Round: 3
Average Draft Position: 88.3
Total First Rounders: 5


2011-2012
1 Erik Karlsson 1 15th
2 Dustin Byfuglien 8 245th
3 Brian Campbell 6 156th
4 Zdeno Chara 3 56th
5 Alex Pietrangelo 1 4th
6 Shea Weber 2 49th
7 Alex Edler 3 91st
8 Dan Boyle Undrafted
9 Mark Streit 9 262nd
10 Dennis Wideman 8 241st
11 Ryan Suter 1 7th
12 Dion Phaneuf 1 9th
13 Kevin Bieksa 5 151st
14 Keith Yandle 4 105
15 Kevin Shattenkirk 1 14th
16 Kimmo Timonen 10 250th
17 Kris Letang 3 62nd
18 Michael Del Zotto 1 20th
19 Duncan Keith 2 54th
20 Jack Johnson 1 3rd

Average Round: 3
Average Draft Position: 89.7
Total First Rounders: 6



Now obviously just because these are the top-scoring defencemen, it does not mean that they are the best defencemen. But there is a correlation. And if we look at the best of the best, the Norris winners, we see the same pattern.

2005–06 Nicklas Lidstrom 3rd round
2006–07 Nicklas Lidstrom 3rd round
2007–08 Nicklas Lidstrom 3rd round
2008–09 Zdeno Chara 3rd round
2009–10 Duncan Keith 2nd round
2010–11 Nicklas Lidstrom 3rd round
2011–12 Erik Karlsson 1st round
2012–13 P.K. Subban 2nd round

Out of the 5 Norris winners since the lockout, only 1 was a first round pick (15th OA). And incidentally, the year Karlsson won the Norris, there was a lot of debate among people who felt Shea Weber should have won that year - And Weber is another 2nd round pick.



If we look at the Art Ross winners since the lockout we see completely the opposite trend.

2005–06 Joe Thornton 1st overall
2006–07 Sidney Crosby 1st overall
2007–08 Alexander Ovechkin 1st overall
2008–09 Evgeni Malkin 2nd overall
2009–10 Henrik Sedin 3rd overall
2010–11 Daniel Sedin 2nd overall
2011–12 Evgeni Malkin 2nd overall
2012–13 ** Martin St. Louis Undrafted

Of the 7 Art Ross winners since the lockout, only 1 of them wasn't a first round pick. All the rest were drafted in the first 3 spots of the draft.



This obviously isn't extensive but it does seem to echo the findings of the article Bleach linked earlier. It's probably best to draft forwards in the 1st round, and especially with the first few picks in the first round. Whereas maybe it's best to try to aim for elite defencemen with your 2nd and 3rd round picks? That seems to be where they tend to come from.


At the very least, I'm happy with Gillis' apparent draft strategy, taking forwards in round 1 and looking for the hidden gems of defensemen in the later rounds.

 

[Rey]

Key attribute for a defense man is size, and skating abilities. I remember that 2010 draft well, and I posted here that i like Justin Faulk over every other defense man because he seemed more like an all round defense man, while everyone ranked ahead where ranked high because oh physicality and size. Aside from Cam Fowler, in that draft, everyone was a tower. None of them really skated well. Everyone was just banking on them being the next Tyler Myers or Zdeno Chara.

There's nothing wrong with drafting a defense man in the first round. Just make sure he is a elite skater. With the new NHL rules, there simply isn't a guy who can take on a Scott Stevens or Chris Pronger type reputation. Any elite skater defense man, can put up points by moving the puck up the ice.