News Article: Projecting David Pastrnaks Possible ceiling

[BB88]

I think with the prospects we have in the system our scoring is going to go up, and so should Pasta's points also. D will prove a lot more offense in the future.

 

[bob27]

Yes, but there's a difference between "Ceiling" and "Potential". Very few players hit or exceed their ceiling, which is considered the highest they can go... I see Pasta as a 55-65 point player in his prime who will hit 70 points a few times, so I'd say his realistic ceiling is ~30G/70P. Not expecting him to hit his ceiling for another 3-5 years. I don't think he'll slump this year, but he'll put up the same numbers he did last season on an 82 game pace, so ~40-50 points. Would be very happy with that. If all goes right, I could see him breaking out for real in 16-17, with a few up and down years after that.

I find "ceiling" to be a pretty strange concept when talking about player's potential. Pastrnak has already defied the odds by becoming an NHL player, something that only a tiny fraction of all hockey players achieve. Right after he was drafted no one expected him to do anything for few years, as he was described to be project by most pundits. Though it is still entirely possible that last season was just a fluke, at every opportunity Pastrnak has shown more than what people thought he was capable of. I'd be leery of putting a hard cap of what can become of him. If Brad Boyes can be a 40 goal scorer in this league, then it should be possible for more talented (IMO) Pastrnak as well.

 

[ODAAT]

Ceiling in this NHL where pts are at a premium?

I predict once he gets that experience, he`ll be a consistent 65-70pt man which is great

 

[Dellstrom]

I find "ceiling" to be a pretty strange concept when talking about player's potential. Pastrnak has already defied the odds by becoming an NHL player, something that only a tiny fraction of all hockey players achieve. Right after he was drafted no one expected him to do anything for few years, as he was described to be project by most pundits. Though it is still entirely possible that last season was just a fluke, at every opportunity Pastrnak has shown more than what people thought he was capable of. I'd be leery of putting a hard cap of what can become of him. If Brad Boyes can be a 40 goal scorer in this league, then it should be possible for more talented (IMO) Pastrnak as well.

It is a weird concept, doesn't really mean anything aside from predictions... If you asked someone 12 years ago what Bergy's ceiling was, they'd probably say there's a 50/50 chance he makes the NHL, let alone be an elite player.

Ceiling, like potential, is just an estimate... Fun to do but it really doesn't mean anything. For guys like Pasta who have the talent and drive to succeed, and who's flaws are mostly fixable (size, experience), the sky is his ceiling.

 

[TheBigBadB]

At worst I say Haglien type of career, but he does have impressive tools to exceed that.

 

[zaYG]

A bit better than peak Loui Eriksson point production with just as good defense and more physicality.

Top 3 RW in the NHL at his peak.

 

[finchster]

I only hope he can duplicate what he did last year. I still expect some growing pains ,he is still a kid really . Patience .

If he can duplicate his impact last year, that will be an incredible year. I think Pastrnak will have a sophomore slump and fans need to temper down their expectations.

First of all, Pastrnak played 69% of his zone starts in the offensive zone last year, the most by any Bruin player on the active roster. Julien was using him with the easiest ice time against weak competition. This year there is more pressure on him to be 'the guy' or at the very least a solid contributor. This means that he will have to play against harder competition and fewer offensive zone starts (for example Lucic played 54% in the offensive zone). I'm expecting some issues this year.

If he can come close to last year while playing more defensive zone starts and harder competition, I will be very pleased.

 

[LouJersey]

There have been two recent NHL'ers that I've seen the past ten years live that looked better than him on the ice...

Kovalchuk and Gaborik.

Pasta is someone when you see live, you just flat out don't see others do. His instincts and positioning in the O zone are elite. His movement to the open space. Elite. His shot. Elite. He is something special.

 

[zaYG]

There have been two recent NHL'ers that I've seen the past ten years live that looked better than him on the ice...

Kovalchuk and Gaborik.

Pasta is someone when you see live, you just flat out don't see others do. His instincts and positioning in the O zone are elite. His movement to the open space. Elite. His shot. Elite. He is something special.

Don't forget Patrick Kane. Dude honestly looks like him.

I really hope I'm not overhyping him but he looks to have the potential that no other players on the Bruins do.

 

[BobbyAwe]

Did they do a similar analysis of Spooner? I can't find it from that page?

 

[iReckless]

Would compare him right now to a Nikita Kucherov, Tomas Tatar, Gustav Nyquist, and Jaden Schwartz type player.

 

[Zac Rinaldo*]

he reminds me of havlat but more inspired, so havlat in the early stages of his career when he had some hustle with ottawa.

 

[DKH]

I'm hoping he performs point wise like fellow Czech Ziggy Palffy. Similar size and offensive zone style to me. Pasta comes across more physically involved. Palffy was an elite producer in his day.

His floor would be Mariusz Czerkswki. However off the ice - babe and post hockey career he has on the face of it had a life you dream of.

Although still waiting for him to score and celebrate with a back flip Harry said he could do

 

[Boston Bruno]

I love looking at stats like this and this is a very interesting breakdown on what Pastrnak should become in the future:

https://www.todaysslapshot.com/nhl-.../projecting-david-pastrnaks-probable-ceiling/

1st rounder, 3rd rounder, and a d prospect yet to be drafted from Vancouver

 

[Caper Bruins fan]

If he can duplicate his impact last year, that will be an incredible year. I think Pastrnak will have a sophomore slump and fans need to temper down their expectations.

First of all, Pastrnak played 69% of his zone starts in the offensive zone last year, the most by any Bruin player on the active roster. Julien was using him with the easiest ice time against weak competition. This year there is more pressure on him to be 'the guy' or at the very least a solid contributor. This means that he will have to play against harder competition and fewer offensive zone starts (for example Lucic played 54% in the offensive zone). I'm expecting some issues this year.

If he can come close to last year while playing more defensive zone starts and harder competition, I will be very pleased.

I wonder who his line mates will be ? Spooner and ?

 

[neelynugs]

1st rounder, 3rd rounder, and a d prospect yet to be drafted from Vancouver

straight up for shean donovan

http://orig07.deviantart.net/94eb/f/2008/079/6/e/grave_stone_hands_by_seiyastock.jpg

 

[N o o d l e s]

I wonder who his line mates will be ? Spooner and ?

I can't wait to see, either. Spooner and Pastrnak together could be dynamic. Too bad we don't have a LW in the same mold right now as those two. I was looking at Hockeydb and DeBrusk is listed at LW so that could be interesting.

They have Senyshyn at RW. Too bad he's not on the left because if he develops like some here believe then that could have been an awesome line down the road.

 

[vjcsmoke]

I feel that Pastrnak is a top 6 winger on this team and in this system. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him double his point total in year 2 ie 50-60 pts. And in year 3 blossom into a .7-1.0 ppg player ie 70-80+ pts.

 

[JOKER 192]

If he can duplicate his impact last year, that will be an incredible year. I think Pastrnak will have a sophomore slump and fans need to temper down their expectations.

First of all, Pastrnak played 69% of his zone starts in the offensive zone last year, the most by any Bruin player on the active roster. Julien was using him with the easiest ice time against weak competition. This year there is more pressure on him to be 'the guy' or at the very least a solid contributor. This means that he will have to play against harder competition and fewer offensive zone starts (for example Lucic played 54% in the offensive zone). I'm expecting some issues this year.

If he can come close to last year while playing more defensive zone starts and harder competition, I will be very pleased.

He needs to stay on the 3rd line with Spooner and Erikkson on the left. Erikkson is fast enough to keep up with them and strong enough on defence to cover some of the rookie mistakes two rookies will make. No more sheltered minutes and only favorable situations. Bruins don't really have a 1st line IMO. They have a 2a,2b and 2c so which opponents he draws will likely be determined by production.

 

[cobrak]

I feel that Pastrnak is a top 6 winger on this team and in this system. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him double his point total in year 2 ie 50-60 pts. And in year 3 blossom into a .7-1.0 ppg player ie 70-80+ pts.

That is my hope too. Ideally he got bigger during the off season and is ready and willing to take on some defensive responsibilities

 

[Zac Rinaldo*]

That is my hope too. Ideally he got bigger during the off season and is ready and willing to take on some defensive responsibilities

he has

 

[Eddie Munson]

I've said it before but he reminds me of a Hossa-lite. He doesn't have the frame Hossa does but his skating, patience with the puck, shot and hands remind me of Hossa. I don't know if he'll top out with the elite numbers Hossa had in his primer but certainly a 30+ goal 40+ assist guy.

Really looking forward to what this kid can do when he adds some muscle to that frame.

 

[Dupell6]

I' m tempering my expectations a bit, i do think the kid in a couple years will turn out to be a 55-65 point player but im not expecting anything crazy next year. He's going to have some growing pains. I think hell get something like 15 g 20 a which in my mind is a very good season for a 19 year old.

 

[Dellstrom]

I' m tempering my expectations a bit, i do think the kid in a couple years will turn out to be a 55-65 point player but im not expecting anything crazy next year. He's going to have some growing pains. I think hell get something like 15 g 20 a which in my mind is a very good season for a 19 year old.

I agree. I'm not really expecting "growing pains" but I'm expecting next year to be a bridge year for him. He was on pace for 18 goals, 48 points in an 82 game season last year... If he can put up anywhere from 15-20 goals, 40-50 points, I'll consider that a phenomenal season, not even considering the fact that he'll only be 19. I could see him breaking out in 2016-17, but we have to be patient with him and it's good that most of us are containing our (justified) excitement and wanting to do what's best for his development.

 

[Dicky113]

He "probably" won't end up as stamkos.

Crikes. I think we are projecting a wee bit too much.