News Article: Projecting David Pastrnaks Possible ceiling

[cobrak]

I love looking at stats like this and this is a very interesting breakdown on what Pastrnak should become in the future:

https://www.todaysslapshot.com/nhl-.../projecting-david-pastrnaks-probable-ceiling/

Click to read more...

 

[BB88]

With Pasta it's all about him getting more weight, it's his biggest limitation for reaching that true #1Rw status, if he knows that and is able to add more weight then he should end up being a fantastic top Rw.

 

[Danton Heineken]

25 g, 60 pts, plus player

 

[Era of Sanity]

I think he'll hit 30/70. So talented, hard to believe he fell that far.

 

[cobrak]

This is a projection based on the average of like players. He has a 50/50 shot at being better (or worse) than the trend line, some are significantly better while very few are significantly worse.=. If you look at his production on the chart vs. the players he is projected against one scored .55-ish in his rookie season and ended up scoring 1.0 ppg in his career....That would be awesome

 

[Trap Jesus]

To be fair, his utilization and linemates were extremely conducive to him putting up numbers (especially numbers relative to his ice time) and "driving possession". Julien really eased him in last year, as he should.

 

[CharasLazyWrister]

To be fair, his utilization and linemates were extremely conducive to him putting up numbers (especially numbers relative to his ice time) and "driving possession". Julien really eased him in last year, as he should.

Not sure I agree with that. Plenty of his goals were just all individual effort/great shots that no one else on the team had/has the talent to pull off.

Sounds a lot like the Kessel-Savard assertion back in the day that Kessel's success was due to Marc Savard's great passing. It certainly didn't hurt, but talented players are talented players and have the ability to produce in most situations. Don't see why Pastrnak should not be projected as one of those players given his skillset and what he has already shown.

 

[Fire Sweeney]

I've always seen him as a Ray Whitney-like type of player, and that's also his ceiling IMO.

 

[Trap Jesus]

Not sure I agree with that. Plenty of his goals were just all individual effort/great shots that no one else on the team had/has the talent to pull off.

Sounds a lot like the Kessel-Savard assertion back in the day that Kessel's success was due to Marc Savard's great passing. It certainly didn't hurt, but talented players are talented players and have the ability to produce in most situations. Don't see why Pastrnak should not be projected as one of those players given his skillset and what he has already shown.

Not saying he can't, and I really haven't seen anything in his game that I don't like, but a lot of that article was very statistics-based, and if you do that, it's tough to ignore 70% O-zone starts and exclusively playing with talented linemates.

 

[Beesfan]

The kid is a stud. I'm more impressed by his AHL performance than anything. Pure dominance in the AHL at 18 y/o, strong production in the NHL, stunning at times in the WJC. Reminds me of Hossa.

Regular all star, 1st line RW, average year about 32-44-76.

 

[Mpasta]

I've always seen him as a Ray Whitney-like type of player, and that's also his ceiling IMO.

I like your comparison but I hope Pasta can get similar numbers to Whitney in today's NHL. .8 points a game would put Pasta around top 25 in the league in points. Something this team is really missing.

It mostly depends on where, how much, and the style of play that CJ allows.

 

[Dellstrom]

Consistent 30-40-70, maybe, hard to say off just one year but from what I've seen, if he can muscle up and improve as all other young players do, that's definitely possible

 

[Jean_Jacket41]

Fast skater. Slick hands. Great shot. Good on the back-check.

He showed plenty of skills at a very young age. Was the youngest player in the NHL and the AHL last year.

Can't wait to see how he evolves. Very high ceilling.

 

[cobrak]

Like I said, I really like stats, but I also think it is a good argument for him to be a top 6 (or even top line) sooner rather than later if he will (probably) only be getting better. And I mean in a year or two, not necessarily this year...unless he earns it.

 

[LSCII]

A million goals this year. That's what he's going to get. A full million.

 

[DitClapper]

Sky's the limit.

 

[patty59]

only 2 players have scored more than 70pts on a Bruins team coached by Julien, Savard and Krejci. And only 4 players have ever hit 30 goals, Lucic, Bergeron, Iginla and Kessel. It's something that must be kept in mind while predicting point totals.

If he's getting +18 minutes a night with lots of PP time, then I can see him getting some impressive totals. But I would bet he's closer to 14-15 mins a game with 1.5ish PP minutes a game this season, with the posibility of a handful of healthy scratches.

 

[BMC]

Right now I just want him to stay healthy. He seems to have all the tools except size [weight actually]. He's got some physical growing left to do and I hope the Bruins are keeping an eye on him.

 

[13Hockey]

I think he will put up 30 goals and 70 points for a career high than settle in as a 20-30 goal a year guy and a 50-70 point a year guy

 

[Kaoz]

This sounds a lot like what Oiler fans do with their prospects. I still remember Oiler fans touting advanced stats that projected Denis Grebeshkov to be the next Scott Neidermyer. In reality Pastrnak is a winger in a system that isn't conducive to winger bottom lines. 60 points is the normal top end for a legitimate first line winger in Julien's systems. That isn't to say Julien's system isn't conducive to offensive production on the whole, just the opposite, but it relies on more balanced scoring across the board and wingers, especially top 6 wingers ice time and production does suffer a bit.

Boston hasn't had a 70 point winger in Julien's tenure (I don't believe) and I don't ever see that changing. Their ice time is limited to the point where it's limiting to their individual numbers. When most leave they notice a rather immediate uptick in bottom line season totals. This was true for Seguin, Kessel, Wheeler, and even Ryder.

If Pastrnak can eventually become a 60 point winger in this system, that will be a huge win.

 

[HumBucker]

I like the fact that there's a stat named after a U2 song: WOWY (With or Without You).

We should have more Advanced U2 Stats:

1) Desire
2) Achtung Baby (awareness of German players)
3) Mysterious Ways (deking ability)
4) Elevation (ability to get a shot top-shelf in tight)
5) Bad (Zach Rinaldi, apparently)

 

[TooMuchMan]

I don't deny that there's a wide range of possible outcomes for Pasta... but I think that production this early - no matter the scenario - is indicative of future success. In the article, I wasn't saying that Pastrnak was a lock to be a Voracek-clone... but it's difficult to envision him worse than a 2nd-liner after what he's shown. The model isn't absolutely predictive (only a R^2 of .70) and there were some significant deltas from the regression (Like Seguin)... but I still think I showed that his contribution in 14-15 bodes well for the future.

-BM

 

[Caper Bruins fan]

I only hope he can duplicate what he did last year. I still expect some growing pains ,he is still a kid really . Patience .

 

[slim399]

I can see him being a Petr Bondra type player.

 

[Dellstrom]

only 2 players have scored more than 70pts on a Bruins team coached by Julien, Savard and Krejci. And only 4 players have ever hit 30 goals, Lucic, Bergeron, Iginla and Kessel. It's something that must be kept in mind while predicting point totals.

If he's getting +18 minutes a night with lots of PP time, then I can see him getting some impressive totals. But I would bet he's closer to 14-15 mins a game with 1.5ish PP minutes a game this season, with the posibility of a handful of healthy scratches.

Yes, but there's a difference between "Ceiling" and "Potential". Very few players hit or exceed their ceiling, which is considered the highest they can go... I see Pasta as a 55-65 point player in his prime who will hit 70 points a few times, so I'd say his realistic ceiling is ~30G/70P. Not expecting him to hit his ceiling for another 3-5 years. I don't think he'll slump this year, but he'll put up the same numbers he did last season on an 82 game pace, so ~40-50 points. Would be very happy with that. If all goes right, I could see him breaking out for real in 16-17, with a few up and down years after that.