Speculation: Project the Future Roster

[LetsGOJackets!!]

I was thinking how many players there will be in our 2025-26 roster from the next four drafts (2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025). If we rely on recent history repeating itself, the number of established full-time NHLers of those draft picks is going to be about 2-4. I checked the stats from hockeydb, there might be errors:

Spoiler

2015-16:

(2012)
Murray 82gp
Anderson 12gp
(2013)
Wennberg 69gp
Korpisalo 31gp
Rychel 32gp
Bjorkstrand 12gp
(2014)
Milano 3gp

2016-17:

(2013)
Wennberg 80gp
Korpisalo 14gp
Bjorkstrand 26gp
(2014)
Milano 4gp
(2015)
Werenski 78gp
Carlsson 2gp
Nutivaara 66gp

2017-18:

(2014)
Milano 55gp
(2015)
Werenski 77gp
Carlsson 14gp
Nutivaara 61gp
(2016)
Dubois 82gp

2018-19:

(2015)
Werenski 82gp
Carlsson 1gp
Nutivaara 80gp
Stenlund 4gp
Gavrikov -
(2016)
Dubois 82gp
(2017)
Texier 2gp

2019-20:

(2016)
Dubois 70gp
Peeke 22gp
Thurkauf 3gp
(2017)
Texier 36gp
Bemstrom 56gp
(2018)
Foudy 2gp

2020-21:

(2017)
Texier 49gp
Bemstrom 20gp
(2018)
Foudy 24gp
Vehvilainen 1gp

Sorry about that Tunnelvision - I see what you did there - A large portion of our top 23 are internally drafted players (which is the right way for a small market to build a lineup). To build in that manner really puts an emphasis on drafting the right 18 year olds (requires expert Scouting / projection).. and then developing them properly at the right levels according to their development needs. Clearly draft picks in our past may have been rushed to the NHL before they were ready. Some of our picks have been traded Voracek, Brassard, Moore, Russell, Karlsson, Marchessault, prior to them really hitting their stride and playing their best hockey. We need to be patient with our prospects in the system.

 

[tunnelvision]

Some players missing in 2021 Gavrikov, Werenski, Stenlund, played the entire season for the 2020-2021 CBJ Nutivaara, Murray, Wennberg, Dubois played the whole season. With the amount of high draft picks in this current draft and next, the success rate should spike up as well. Past history really has no bearing - look at the projections for Johnson, Sillinger, Ceulemans, Svozil, Richard. All 5 of those guys have a high probability of making it to the NHL. Add in Jarmo's surprising success in finding talent in the later rounds and I would say this 2021 - 2023 group of draftees should be really strong. We are not a free agent destination - CBJ will be built through the drafts to come. We have traded away our players too early in some cases - Voracek, Brassard, Moore come to mind.

The players counted for each season's list are from previous four drafts. So for example in 2020-21 there were 4 players from the drafts 2017-2020. Gavrikov and others you mentioned were drafted earlier.

 

[majormajor]

I was thinking how many players there will be in our 2025-26 roster from the next four drafts (2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025). If we rely on recent history repeating itself, the number of established full-time NHLers of those draft picks is going to be about 2-4. I checked the stats from hockeydb, there might be errors:

Spoiler

2015-16:

(2012)
Murray 82gp
Anderson 12gp
(2013)
Wennberg 69gp
Korpisalo 31gp
Rychel 32gp
Bjorkstrand 12gp
(2014)
Milano 3gp

2016-17:

(2013)
Wennberg 80gp
Korpisalo 14gp
Bjorkstrand 26gp
(2014)
Milano 4gp
(2015)
Werenski 78gp
Carlsson 2gp
Nutivaara 66gp

2017-18:

(2014)
Milano 55gp
(2015)
Werenski 77gp
Carlsson 14gp
Nutivaara 61gp
(2016)
Dubois 82gp

2018-19:

(2015)
Werenski 82gp
Carlsson 1gp
Nutivaara 80gp
Stenlund 4gp
Gavrikov -
(2016)
Dubois 82gp
(2017)
Texier 2gp

2019-20:

(2016)
Dubois 70gp
Peeke 22gp
Thurkauf 3gp
(2017)
Texier 36gp
Bemstrom 56gp
(2018)
Foudy 2gp

2020-21:

(2017)
Texier 49gp
Bemstrom 20gp
(2018)
Foudy 24gp
Vehvilainen 1gp

I like the exercise, very interesting to see it from the past. Even solid pros like Big Josh barely factor into the 4 year window.

Some adjustment would have to be made for the picks themselves. We're going from having two 1st rounders in the last 4 years to having six-to-eight 1st rounders in the next 4 years.

 

[Mikey09]

Tarasov
???

Werenski - Ceulemans
Gavrikov - Boqvist
Svozil/Richards - Peeke

Marchenko - Johnson - Bjorkstrand
Sillinger - Roslovic - Chinakhov
Texier - Voronkov - Bemstrom
Foudy - xxx - xxx

xxx- Robinson/Jenner/Dunne/Angle/Malatesta/Pyyhtia

Well, looks pretty skilled potentially, but also pretty weak physically. Would welcome to add some 2nd/3rd line power forward, someone who will hit and eventually stand up for a teammates.

 

[pled]

Laine Eichel Bjork
Tex Roslo Sten
Marchenko Voronkov Chinakov
Foudy Sillinger TFW
Johnson

9.5m Hjorth
Gav Boq
Knazko Peeke
Bean Ceulemans

Elvis
Tarasov

 

[Jan]

Tarasov
???

Werenski - Ceulemans
Gavrikov - Boqvist
Svozil/Richards - Peeke

Marchenko - Johnson - Bjorkstrand
Sillinger - Roslovic - Chinakhov
Texier - Voronkov - Bemstrom
Foudy - xxx - xxx

xxx- Robinson/Jenner/Dunne/Angle/Malatesta/Pyyhtia

Well, looks pretty skilled potentially, but also pretty weak physically. Would welcome to add some 2nd/3rd line power forward, someone who will hit and eventually stand up for a teammates.

One of the more realistically predictions, even there are a little to many of the latest draft pick panning out, to be truly realistically.

One or two of
Marchenko, Johnson, Sillinger, Chinakhov and-or Voronkov would probably have to be replaces with Robinson/Jenner or someone else entirely, as statistically not to many actually make it.

Still it is a pretty good and fair prediction.

 

[VT]

Tarasov
???

Werenski - Ceulemans
Gavrikov - Boqvist
Svozil/Richards - Peeke

Marchenko - Johnson - Bjorkstrand
Sillinger - Roslovic - Chinakhov
Texier - Voronkov - Bemstrom
Foudy - xxx - xxx

xxx- Robinson/Jenner/Dunne/Angle/Malatesta/Pyyhtia

Well, looks pretty skilled potentially, but also pretty weak physically. Would welcome to add some 2nd/3rd line power forward, someone who will hit and eventually stand up for a teammates.

If I understand right you want to put Bemstrom who is a player for TOP 6 (I mean a style) to bottom 6 with his physical play and defense? Next, Kurally will be in the team because he has NMC. And Angle/Malatesta/Pyyhtia to the fourth line? NHL isn`t European hockey. I think Foudy could play RW in the third line. He played there (RW) in the start of the previous season.What's happen Voronkov, it could be a problem, because he played LW in KHL. Only Bragin moved him on C. Btw when I said Voronkov will play in Russian team soon even fans who played hockey very laught. It was before 2019/2020 season. Now nobody laught.

I would like to see Dunne in the fourth line, he has good defense, positional play one's agressive, good play around the boards. But...

P.S. What I was reading about Malatesta, he can be really a very good player. Underrated like Atkinson. It's a pity but I don't know Pyyhtia.

 

[majormajor]

If I understand right you want to put Bemstrom who is a player for TOP 6 (I mean a style) to bottom 6 with his physical play and defense? Next, Kurally will be in the team because he has NMC. And Angle/Malatesta/Pyyhtia to the fourth line? NHL isn`t European hockey. I think Foudy could play RW in the third line. He played there (RW) in the start of the previous season.What's happen Voronkov, it could be a problem, because he played LW in KHL. Only Bragin moved him on C. Btw when I said Voronkov will play in Russian team soon even fans who played hockey very laught. It was before 2019/2020 season. Now nobody laught.

I would like to see Dunne in the fourth line, he has good defense, positional play one's agressive, good play around the boards. But...

P.S. What I was reading about Malatesta, he can be really a very good player. Underrated like Atkinson. It's a pity but I don't know Pyyhtia.

This thing about 3rd lines being big and bruising is really a tiresome trope. You need physicality in your lineup but whether you put that on the third row of your list doesn't matter.

 

[VT]

This thing about 3rd lines being big and bruising is really a tiresome trope. You need physicality in your lineup but whether you put that on the third row of your list doesn't matter.

But with this TOP 6, the third line wouldn't get much time, so there should be players who are good both offensively (for the third line) and defensively, and at the same time they are strenght.

 

[Mikey09]

If I understand right you want to put Bemstrom who is a player for TOP 6 (I mean a style) to bottom 6 with his physical play and defense? Next, Kurally will be in the team because he has NMC. And Angle/Malatesta/Pyyhtia to the fourth line? NHL isn`t European hockey. I think Foudy could play RW in the third line. He played there (RW) in the start of the previous season.What's happen Voronkov, it could be a problem, because he played LW in KHL. Only Bragin moved him on C. Btw when I said Voronkov will play in Russian team soon even fans who played hockey very laught. It was before 2019/2020 season. Now nobody laught.

I would like to see Dunne in the fourth line, he has good defense, positional play one's agressive, good play around the boards. But...

P.S. What I was reading about Malatesta, he can be really a very good player. Underrated like Atkinson. It's a pity but I don't know Pyyhtia.

Oh man, this is not 1995 with 2 offensive and 2 defensive lines but nevermind. Well, Angle and Malatesta may not be any giants, but they are no soft or shy to play physical. And yes, Bemstrom in 3rd, that line with Voronkov and Texier should be skilled enough and also kind of defensively responsible thanks to Tex and Dmitri. Sorry but i dont see Bemstrom to be a better player then any of Marchenko, Bjorkstrand, Sillinger or Chinakhov, that is the reason why 3rd line.

 

[Mikey09]

But with this TOP 6, the third line wouldn't get much time, so there should be players who are good both offensively (for the third line) and defensively, and at the same time they are strenght.

Secondary scoring, its called secondary scoring! Look at lineups of cup winning teams, do you see that? 3 strong lines. Of course i would love to get Anderson type of player in a heartbeat instead of Bemstren in there, but i did it realisticaly with our current prospect pool with no fantasy trades.

 

[VT]

Secondary scoring, its called secondary scoring! Look at lineups of cup winning teams, do you see that? 3 strong lines. Of course i would love to get Anderson type of player in a heartbeat instead of Bemstren in there, but i did it realisticaly with our current prospect pool with no fantasy trades.

I know it but the third line must play good in defense too, because it often plays against the best opponent lines. Look at lines od cup winning teams. In addition this line is soft enough with him. Foudy can be a very good player IMHO. Besides, and you can`t know it because you hasn`t probably seen KHL, the Voronkov--Texier--Foudy line reminds me the Voronkov--Galimov--Safonov line more. And this line was simply great in KHL PO. It`s a pity you couldn`t watch Avangard Omsk - Ak Bars Kazan round.

Hmm, our ideas are beautiful, but... Kuraly has M-NTC from 2022/23 to 23/24 and if he will play good he`s resigned (Ohio boy). Jenner has M-NTC TO 2024/25. Also, if he plays absolutely terrible he won`t be traded. If Laine find his real play and he will want to resign, Jarmo would be a fool if he didn`t do it. Besides he can hit and stand up for teammates.

Our problem is too much skill and technical players but too low powerforwards. If young players without big opportunities in NHL: Johnson, Sillinger-Marchenko, Chinakhov, Bemstrom. If all are progress it will be difficult to choose a player for a trade. Fortunately Foudy and Texier can play in the third line too, in addition Tex is very skill.

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

Laine - Roslovic - Bjorkstrand/Voracek
Nyquist - Texier/Sillinger* - Voracek/Bjorkstrand
Robinson - Sillinger*/Texier - Marchenko*/Chinakhov*/Bemstrom
Foudy - Jenner - Bemstrom/Marchenko*/Chinakhov*

I simply do not believe that in most cases that young and newly drafted players are going to be ready to play on top lines.

After the last two season where Bjorkstrand has proven to be out best player and that by far. When he was not out by injury.
In my book, even Voracek who is becoming older, will have to beat him out.
Sillinger already better than both Roslovic and Texier, It is difficult for me to believe that this will be the fact. Well we can always hope, bu realistically to think that Sillinger will be ready for both the defensive part of the game, which is reported to be his weak side, and the offence.
Well do you not think it is just a little unrealistically?

Then there is Laine.
Is he a star or a flop? Two out of the last three seasons, he has been a flop and out of conditions. There are certainly hope and he has been training in Columbus with team staff and other young players. That really provide us hope and also hope for some chemistry between him, Bjorkstrand and Roslovic.

Jan, certainly understand the pessimism / reality check advice on your part: One additional thing to remember is that Marchenko and Vorenkov are already 21 now & playing in the KHL Chinakov is 19 - they will be new to the NHL but not not unprepared. Wright and a few other 2022/2023 draft picks are good enough to play in the NHL after being picked. They don't need to star that 1st year, just develop and contribute.

 

[Jan]

Jan, certainly understand the pessimism / reality check advice on your part: One additional thing to remember is that Marchenko and Vorenkov are already 21 now & playing in the KHL Chinakov is 19 - they will be new to the NHL but not not unprepared. Wright and a few other 2022/2023 draft picks are good enough to play in the NHL after being picked. They don't need to star that 1st year, just develop and contribute.

Well bigger stars has failed to converting to NHL.
In fact I am optimistic that least one of them will succeed.

Problem is just that many is slotting the three last and highest draft as something like the new first line.
I will say replacing a few with the latest draft is fine, but replacing the entire team with the latest draft is simply not realistic.

None of us, is likely to predict the team as it will be.
But I think we should expect each other to be a little realistic with how many can be replaced over this relativ short time, with draft picks.

 

[koteka]

Panarin gets sick of NYC and forces his way back to Columbus after seeing Werenski’s gigantic home with 7 car garage on social media. We give up Tex, Marchenko, and Boyd in the trade.

We get McGroarty and Michkov in the next two drafts.

The CBJ 2020 draft is discussed for years as it yields 7 really good players. (6 for the Jackets and Boyd takes over the Reaves role for the Rangers.)

In a move that demonstrates that revenge is a dish best served cold, the Panthers cannot match the Jacket’s offer sheet for Spencer Knight because of Bobrovsky’s contract.

Carlsson takes a medium sized step forward and becomes a halfway decent third pair defenseman.


Panarin - McGroarty - Michkov
Sillinger - Johnson - Bjorkstrand
Foudy - Roslovic - Chinakhov
Malatesta - Voronkov - Robinson
Werenski - Makarov
Svozil - Ceulemans
Carlsson - Peeke
Knight
Tarasov

 

[koteka]

One thing I hope we do is sort of follow a Boston model where you can trade good young talent (Seguin, Hamilton) if they don’t fit and still be a Cup contender. And I hope we amass enough talent so that is even an option. (However, I hope we don’t have a draft like the Bruins did in 2015 when they had 3 1st round picks from trades.)

 

[EspenK]

One thing I hope we do is sort of follow a Boston model where you can trade good young talent (Seguin, Hamilton) if they don’t fit and still be a Cup contender. And I hope we amass enough talent so that is even an option. (However, I hope we don’t have a draft like the Bruins did in 2015 when they had 3 1st round picks from trades.)

Or completely blow the picks like they did...they took Zboril, DeBrusk & Senyshen at 13, 14 ,15. 16,17,18 were Barzal,Connor & Chabot...oops!

 

[majormajor]

Or completely blow the picks like they did...they took Zboril, DeBrusk & Senyshen at 13, 14 ,15. 16,17,18 were Barzal,Connor & Chabot...oops!

One extra funny aspect to that story is that supposedly the Bruins were one of the teams that didn't like Barzal's arrogance when they interviewed him. He was asked why they should draft him and Barzal said "if you don't, you'll regret it". So they took Zboril, who they now think has a video game problem hurting his development, and of course, they regret not taking Barzal.

 

[koteka]

Or completely blow the picks like they did...they took Zboril, DeBrusk & Senyshen at 13, 14 ,15. 16,17,18 were Barzal,Connor & Chabot...oops!

That’s what I meant. Don’t blow a draft like Boston did. Although they did do ok in the 2nd round with Carlo.

 

[Hinterland]

Or completely blow the picks like they did...they took Zboril, DeBrusk & Senyshen at 13, 14 ,15. 16,17,18 were Barzal,Connor & Chabot...oops!

To be fair, DeBrusk used to be very good the first two seasons. I'm talking not just about his offensive output but also his two way game and the energy and physical impact he had. All of this is gone now, he really fell off a cliff after two years so it's probably health related.

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

these same Bruins that got Pasta in the 6th round? going to pass on ripping them. Drafted Marchand.. & the team with my favorite Selke Bergeron.

 

[majormajor]

these same Bruins that got Pasta in the 6th round? going to pass on ripping them. Drafted Marchand.. & the team with my favorite Selke Bergeron.

Late 1st.

He was a big scorer in SHL, obviously super skilled. Teams passed on him because they thought he was too much of a Yakupov-type.

 

[tunnelvision]

Late 1st.

He was a big scorer in SHL, obviously super skilled. Teams passed on him because they thought he was too much of a Yakupov-type.

Pretty certain his production would drop to 40-50 point level if he wasn't playing with Bergeron and Marchand. IMO he's a Kris Versteeg with a better shot.

 

[majormajor]

Pretty certain his production would drop to 40-50 point level if he wasn't playing with Bergeron and Marchand. IMO he's a Kris Versteeg with a better shot.

Pastrnak's offensive skill is far beyond that in my opinion. I do wonder about his all around game but not his scoring ability.

 

[tunnelvision]

Pastrnak's offensive skill is far beyond that in my opinion. I do wonder about his all around game but not his scoring ability.

To get me convinced he's a 60+ points man without elite players around him, I guess we have to wait until he gets traded or either one of his linemates retires / moves down on the 2nd or 3rd line. Bergeron is 36, Marchand 33, Pastrnak 25. We will get an answer in 2-3 years when Bergeron likely has nothing left in the tank, Marchand's play has fallen as well and Pastrnak is just entering into his prime at 27.