Speculation: Project the Future Roster

[EspenK]

Naysayers, I know this is an exercise in futility but being up too early and prompted by an article in The Atlantic I thought this might help pass the dog days.Looking out 4 seasons this is what I think the Jackets roster could look like if prospects pan out. If they don't this is undoable.

Marchenko-Johnson-Chinakhov
Sillinger-Roslovic-Bjorkstrand (OB moved to 2nd line because of age)
Texier-Voronkov-Bemstrom (wings on this line need to get better imo)
Robinson-Foudy-???

Zach-Boqvist
Scozil-Ceulemans
Bean-Peeke
Knazko

Elvis
Tarasov

Laine, Domi & Gav are gone. If Laine rebounds this year he probably is still here but if he does I'd ship him out at TDL.His cap hit will be astronomical. Domi has no future here imo and should be traded for a 2nd or 3rd or a prospect. Gav can easily be traded if the young guys develop if not he will be here.

Add in two 1st rounders in 2022 and firsts in the rest of the years and Jackets could have a very solid team and still be a very young team. Cap issues might interfere but I think the bigger issue is how the young guys develop. Probably will be a few busts/disappointments but the new picks could offset.

Click to read more...

 

[CBJx614]

Laine - KJ - Bjorkstrand
Voronkov - Roslovic - Marchenko
Foudy - Sillinger - Texier
Robinson - Kuraly - Chinakov

Werenski - Boqvist
Bean - Peeke
Gavrikov - Ceulemans
Knazko - Svozil

Insert 2022 pick somewhere in the lineup as well ..



Pretty hard considering we know that we won't hit on all those picks. But it's about time we start hitting on some so who knows..

 

[VT]

I wanted to do it but it`s difficult because we don`t know how Johnson, Sillinger and Ceulemans will play in the future. D-men too. So many talented boys, but the question, who will develop right? Or whom we will take in the next draft? I know Slafkovsky and Nemec. Nemec is an excelent defensman (R), Slafkovsky a winger who can play a center too. Both of them could be taken in TOP 10. I even afraid to write a roster for the next season.

 

[Byrral]

Being honest the only players I see as a lock for this team in 4 years (without trades) are Werenski, Bjorkstrand and Boqvist. You also build a team differently than lining up a team full of prospects and young players like I'm about to do.

But here goes:

KJ - Sillinger - Chinakhov
Laine - 2022 1st pick - Bjorkstrand
Texier - Roslovic - Marchenko
Robinson - Voronkov - Foudy

Werenski - Boqvist
Bean - Peeke
Svozil - Cuelemans

Tarasov
FA/2nd goalie

 

[tunnelvision]

someone via trade/UFA - Johnson - Marchenko
2022 pick - Sillinger - Chinakhov
via trade/UFA - Roslovic - Bjorkstrand
Voronkov - Jenner - 2022 pick

Werenski - via trade/UFA
via trade/UFA - 2023 pick
Svozil - Christiansen

X
Y

Players who'll retire, walk away or get traded:

Voracek
Nyqvist
Domi
Laine
Kuraly
Texier
Robinson
Stenlund
Bemstrom
Foudy

Boqvist
Kukan
Gavrikov
Bean

Elvis
Korpisalo
Tarasov

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

Laine Roslovic Voracek
Nyquist Texier Bjorkstrand
Foudy Jenner Chinakov
Robinson Kuraly Bemstrom

Werenski Boqvist
Gavrikov Bean
Kukan Peeke

Elvis
Korpisalo

2023
Kent Johnson Sillinger Chinakov
Marchenko Wright Bjorkstrand
Texier Roslovic Voronkov
Jenner Kuraly Bemstrom
Foudy/ Robinson/Miroshnichenko


Werenski Boqvist
Gavrikov Peeke
Svozil/ Knapko Ceulemans

Elvis
Tarasov

 

[majormajor]

I like this sort of exercise. The way I like to do it is to tell a story that takes you year by year.

Jackets sell off at the 2022 trade deadline

Elvis --- Edmonton 1st round
Robinson --- Tampa 1st round
Domi --- Washington 4th round
Korpisalo --- Washington 5th round

Finish 8th last, draft 8th, pick David Jiricek, a big Czech RD prodigy.
The Chicago pick is #15OA and the Jackets pick someone who will bust (we'll be due).

2022-23 roster

Laine - Sillinger* - Voracek
Nyquist - Roslovic - Bemstrom
Marchenko* - Texier - Bjorkstrand
Foudy - Jenner - Chinakhov*
Kuraly

Werenski - Bean
Gavrikov - Boqvist
Kukan - Peeke
Lehtonen

bad UFA goalie
Tarasov*

This is a fun and exciting team that gets killed defensively, dead last in goals against.

Sell off at the 2023 trade deadline

Laine - Carolina 1st rounder

Jackets finish 2nd last and draft 2nd last, picking up Matvei Michkov.

Jake Bean sold off in the summer to make way for better defenders. Emil Bemstrom scored 20 goals and is sold off to move off Sean Kuraly's bad contract.

2023-24 roster

Marchenko - Sillinger - Voracek
Johnson* - Roslovic - Michkov*
Texier - Voronkov* - Bjorkstrand
Foudy - Jenner - Chinakhov
Dunne

Werenski - Peeke
Gavrikov - Boqvist
OJBHolm - Jiricek*
Kukan

$7m UFA goalie
UFA

This is the year where the rebuild really ends. The team is much improved, perhaps not playoff caliber yet, but it is merely a matter of waiting for the kids to take a leap.

2024-25 roster

Marchenko - Sillinger - Michkov
Johnson - Roslovic - Bjorkstrand
Texier - Voronkov - Chinakhov
Foudy - Dunne* - Angle*
Jenner

Werenski - Jiricek
Gavrikov - Boqvist
Svozil - Peeke
OJBHolm

That big $7m UFA goalie
UFA

I like the Jackets chances by 2024-25. They should be a strong regular season team and will eventually adapt to winning when it matters. Whether they're a great team or not depends on whether these players are great or merely good. Will one of Sillinger, Johnson, or Marchenko reach superstar level? Will one of the next two top draft picks do the same?

In this scenario, we have a number of players that end of busting - the 2022 Chicago pick, Ceulemans, Knazko, Tarasov, etc... I have Texier, Voronkov, Chinakhov, and Foudy topping out as solid bottom sixers, which I'm sure will be a disappointment to some. But as you can see above, the lineup might not need much more than that to be loaded.

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

Major, I'm ok with your scenario except we get #1 in 2022 & Draft Wright right into our 2nd line Centre & then we get Michov in 2023 as you mentioned - additionally Ceulemans doesn't bust - he grows 3 inches and becomes a Chris Pronger clone - Werenski and Boqvist both develop into Scott Niedermeyer clones and the Blue Jackets have a decade run with greatness. Oh and lest we forget Elvis channels Dominic Hasek makes out of this world saves on a nightly basis and leads the team to conference championships and beyond.

 

[majormajor]

I’m trying to get a rough sense of what sort of quality the Jackets might end up with out of the next two drafts.

Is it a good rough assumption that the team will have a ~10% shot at each of the top ten picks in 2022, and in 2023? The draft simulators don’t exist yet for those drafts, but if we run with 10% for each pick then all we need is a random number generator and a couple draft lists to see what we come up with.

2022

Wright C
Lambert C/W
Miroshnichenko W
Nemec RD
Savoie C/W

Cooley C
Jiricek RD
Yurov W
Chesley RD
Salomonsson RD

(List blended from eliteprospect and other sources.)

2023

Bedard C
Michkov W
Yager C/W
Dvorsky C
Fantilli C

Lindstein LD
Musty W
But C/W
Heidt C/W
Jarventie W

(Top 7 are the “elite” class from elite prospects - the last three are top scorers and the only other names I’ve heard yet mentioned as potential top 10s. Yes his name is But.)

Using the random number generator my first five tries come up with:

8 Yurov W
6 Lindstein LD

1 Wright C
6 Lindstein LD

9 Chesley RD
1 Bedard C

5 Savoie C/W
5 Fantilli C

3 Miroshnichenko W
2 Michkov W

Great. Now I can’t stop doing this.

5 Savoie C
1 Bedard C

1 Wright C
2 Michkov W

7 Jiricek RD
9 Heidt C/W

4 Nemec RD
4 Dvorsky C (@VeseleTlacovky's dream team!)

10 Salomonsson RD
4 Dvorsky C

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Naysayers, I know this is an exercise in futility but being up too early

Enjoy! And please save your work so we can compare when we actually get to 2025.

 

[EspenK]

Don't forget there are a bunch of OHL kids not in the top 10 because they didn't pay last year. I say you have many iterations to go,

 

[stevo61]

It will be interesting to see where the teams 2 picks end up and where the top prospects settle in with the rankings. Id say Wright is a clear runaway at 1 but after that it could be interesting. Lambert has been hyped for awhile but the points have to come eventually dont they? Guys like Nemec and Savoie seem like they could make a push to get up to that 2nd spot.

 

[majormajor]

It will be interesting to see where the teams 2 picks end up and where the top prospects settle in with the rankings. Id say Wright is a clear runaway at 1 but after that it could be interesting. Lambert has been hyped for awhile but the points have to come eventually dont they? Guys like Nemec and Savoie seem like they could make a push to get up to that 2nd spot.

I actually am more excited for the 2023 class. Wright might be a Tavares level guy, but I think of Michkov and Bedard as closer to Crosby level potential.

 

[stevo61]

I actually am more excited for the 2023 class. Wright might be a Tavares level guy, but I think of Michkov and Bedard as closer to Crosby level potential.

Oh for sure there are franchise players there but this is still an exceptional draft.

We also seem to be one of those teams that are bad on the wrong years but with these 2 drafts back to back its not a bad time for a rebuild

 

[VT]

I’m trying to get a rough sense of what sort of quality the Jackets might end up with out of the next two drafts.

Is it a good rough assumption that the team will have a ~10% shot at each of the top ten picks in 2022, and in 2023? The draft simulators don’t exist yet for those drafts, but if we run with 10% for each pick then all we need is a random number generator and a couple draft lists to see what we come up with.

2022

Wright C
Lambert C/W
Miroshnichenko W
Nemec RD
Savoie C/W

Cooley C
Jiricek RD
Yurov W
Chesley RD
Salomonsson RD

(List blended from eliteprospect and other sources.)

2023

Bedard C
Michkov W
Yager C/W
Dvorsky C
Fantilli C

Lindstein LD
Musty W
But C/W
Heidt C/W
Jarventie W

(Top 7 are the “elite” class from elite prospects - the last three are top scorers and the only other names I’ve heard yet mentioned as potential top 10s. Yes his name is But.)

Using the random number generator my first five tries come up with:

8 Yurov W
6 Lindstein LD

1 Wright C
6 Lindstein LD

9 Chesley RD
1 Bedard C

5 Savoie C/W
5 Fantilli C

3 Miroshnichenko W
2 Michkov W

Great. Now I can’t stop doing this.

5 Savoie C
1 Bedard C

1 Wright C
2 Michkov W

7 Jiricek RD
9 Heidt C/W

4 Nemec RD
4 Dvorsky C (@VeseleTlacovky's dream team!)

10 Salomonsson RD
4 Dvorsky C

Still Slafkovsky (although W he played the center in the game with Czech republic in WC and not bad) and Nemec (RD) from 2022 draft and all be O.K.

Laine--Slafkovský--Voráček
Kňažko, Nemec

and try to tell me I`m not right...

 

[Jan]

Oh my, sitting predicting on new Draft pick to be in the line up.

We statically, there will only be one of this years top draft in the top six.
Of cause some year that is none and some year it is more.

But to begin predict that several from the last few draft will be manage to develop into top six, is a little high expectation for any teams prospect pool.

To be realistic, you will have to cut down on how many will reach the top line.

Laine - Roslovic - Bjorkstrand/Voracek
Nyquist - Texier/Sillinger* - Voracek/Bjorkstrand
Robinson - Sillinger*/Texier - Marchenko*/Chinakhov*/Bemstrom
Foudy - Jenner - Bemstrom/Marchenko*/Chinakhov*

I simply do not believe that in most cases that young and newly drafted players are going to be ready to play on top lines.

After the last two season where Bjorkstrand has proven to be out best player and that by far. When he was not out by injury.
In my book, even Voracek who is becoming older, will have to beat him out.
Sillinger already better than both Roslovic and Texier, It is difficult for me to believe that this will be the fact. Well we can always hope, bu realistically to think that Sillinger will be ready for both the defensive part of the game, which is reported to be his weak side, and the offence.
Well do you not think it is just a little unrealistically?

Then there is Laine.
Is he a star or a flop? Two out of the last three seasons, he has been a flop and out of conditions. There are certainly hope and he has been training in Columbus with team staff and other young players. That really provide us hope and also hope for some chemistry between him, Bjorkstrand and Roslovic.

Roslovic's question marks (well and Texier)
He/They will really have to improve there defensive part of the center positions, to make the team successful.
We will have to expect that they will have worked on this doing the of season and that there will be worked on this doing training camp.

Bemstrom so long up in line up and no Robinson. It also seams a little strange to me. One on this site compare his output with Bjorkstrand. When his output was in about a 2/3 part of Bjorkstrands per minute, for the second year OB was here.
So in two season, he will be better than Bjorkstrand and also beat out Robinson. Is that likely?

The bottom line is to expect a two big part of the team to be players drafted in the last three draft is a lot to expect of those draft picks. Statistically we will have about two to three players in the line up, of which only one will be in the top three that early.

 

[Viqsi]

I actually am more excited for the 2023 class. Wright might be a Tavares level guy, but I think of Michkov and Bedard as closer to Crosby level potential.

blah blah personal guarantee blah blah not getting blah do or don't do et cetera

Seriously, I don't know why we even bother to talk about those guys as though they have any meaning for us whatsoever. We stand a near-infinitely stronger chance of winning the Cup with the roster as currently constructed, and yes I know how unlikely that is. It's not worth it.

 

[VT]

Oh my, sitting predicting on new Draft pick to be in the line up.

We statically, there will only be one of this years top draft in the top six.
Of cause some year that is none and some year it is more.

But to begin predict that several from the last few draft will be manage to develop into top six, is a little high expectation for any teams prospect pool.

To be realistic, you will have to cut down on how many will reach the top line.

Laine - Roslovic - Bjorkstrand/Voracek
Nyquist - Texier/Sillinger* - Voracek/Bjorkstrand
Robinson - Sillinger*/Texier - Marchenko*/Chinakhov*/Bemstrom
Foudy - Jenner - Bemstrom/Marchenko*/Chinakhov*

I simply do not believe that in most cases that young and newly drafted players are going to be ready to play on top lines.

After the last two season where Bjorkstrand has proven to be out best player and that by far. When he was not out by injury.
In my book, even Voracek who is becoming older, will have to beat him out.
Sillinger already better than both Roslovic and Texier, It is difficult for me to believe that this will be the fact. Well we can always hope, bu realistically to think that Sillinger will be ready for both the defensive part of the game, which is reported to be his weak side, and the offence.
Well do you not think it is just a little unrealistically?

Then there is Laine.
Is he a star or a flop? Two out of the last three seasons, he has been a flop and out of conditions. There are certainly hope and he has been training in Columbus with team staff and other young players. That really provide us hope and also hope for some chemistry between him, Bjorkstrand and Roslovic.

Roslovic's question marks (well and Texier)
He/They will really have to improve there defensive part of the center positions, to make the team successful.
We will have to expect that they will have worked on this doing the of season and that there will be worked on this doing training camp.

Bemstrom so long up in line up and no Robinson. It also seams a little strange to me. One on this site compare his output with Bjorkstrand. When his output was in about a 2/3 part of Bjorkstrands per minute, for the second year OB was here.
So in two season, he will be better than Bjorkstrand and also beat out Robinson. Is that likely?

The bottom line is to expect a two big part of the team to be players drafted in the last three draft is a lot to expect of those draft picks. Statistically we will have about two to three players in the line up, of which only one will be in the top three that early.

I like your comment but I don`t agree with some things:

1. I can`t imagine Roslovic between Laine and Voracek, two "candidates for the Selke Trophy". So IMHO or Texier or try to return Foudy. We can`t lose anything (I don`t say about Sillinger because I don`t know him). But Bjork has good chemistry with Gus and Tex.

2. Patrik had bad not two last seasons but previous and 2018/19. Btw according his words although he played he had problems with back. 2019/20 was very good even with injury.

3. Texier has good defense.

The other... IMHO you`re right.

 

[Byrral]

When you use guys named Wright, Lambert, Savoie, Bedard and Michkov you are assuming the CBJ are not only going to be really bad the next 2 years but their luck in the lottery would have to be as good as the team is bad. I actually don't see either of these happening. They still won't be as bad as other teams.

It would be unreal for the CBJ to get a player like Wright or Michkov so it will never happen.

 

[majormajor]

blah blah personal guarantee blah blah not getting blah do or don't do et cetera

Seriously, I don't know why we even bother to talk about those guys as though they have any meaning for us whatsoever. We stand a near-infinitely stronger chance of winning the Cup with the roster as currently constructed, and yes I know how unlikely that is. It's not worth it.

So how does this work, we pretend the Jackets will never ever draft a great player, so the hockey gods will look favorably upon us and give us one?

When you use guys named Wright, Lambert, Savoie, Bedard and Michkov you are assuming the CBJ are not only going to be really bad the next 2 years but their luck in the lottery would have to be as good as the team is bad. I actually don't see either of these happening. They still won't be as bad as other teams.

It would be unreal for the CBJ to get a player like Wright or Michkov so it will never happen.

The only assumption I made was a 10% chance at a top pick. That's it.

You think 10% is too high, with this roster?

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

Yep, past history has no bearing on future performance.. we have two picks in 2022, and at least 1 in 2023 - I think all three picks will be bottom 3rd, so we have a chance. The lottery has been terrible to us in the past maybe it is our turn to pick #1 Wright / Bedard would change our franchise. MacLean went for overagers, free agents rather than tanking for Crosby, Ovechkin, or Malkin. Meanwhile Mario traded off assets, and went into a rebuild.

 

[Byrral]

The only assumption I made was a 10% chance at a top pick. That's it.

You think 10% is too high, with this roster?

You can make whatever assumptions you want to make with whatever you are doing.

The CBJ should be in the bottom of the league next season. Does that mean they will get a top three pick two years in a row? Who knows. But to get one of those guys much less a multiple of those players on the CBJ roster seems like a lot to have to go right.

Edit: Or wrong?

 

[majormajor]

You can make whatever assumptions you want to make with whatever you are doing.

The CBJ should be in the bottom of the league next season. Does that mean they will get a top three pick two years in a row? Who knows. But to get one of those guys much less a multiple of those players on the CBJ roster seems like a lot to have to go right.

Edit: Or wrong?

I don't think you're even trying to understand me.

"Does that mean they will get a top three pick two years in a row?"

That outcome is not going to be likely by a 10% chance at each of the bottom ten picks. By my math those odds would equate to a 9% chance at getting two consecutive top 3 selections.

 

[Viqsi]

So how does this work, we pretend the Jackets will never ever draft a great player, so the hockey gods will look favorably upon us and give us one?

More "spare yourself the heartache of acting like it has any significant chance"

The only assumption I made was a 10% chance at a top pick. That's it.

You think 10% is too high, with this roster?

10% for each possible slot is not reasonable because it implicitly assumes the following:
1) Finishing in the bottom 10 is the only possible outcome
2) Lottery odds are flat for each finish position
Both of these are inaccurate.

If you have to guesstimate it, I'd suggest having a bell curve for each position rather than a flat 10%. One possible example: 1-10 are 2%, 5%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 15%, 10%, 5%, 5%, and then 8% chance of being outside of that range (read: not a lottery pick, or PLAYOFFS ). Using that, ten tries with random.org gets:
8th overall/5th overall
7th overall/9th overall
5th overall/6th overall
7th overall/5th overall
9th overall/6th overall

6th overall/8th overall
3rd overall/6th overall
2nd overall/7th overall
6th overall/7th overall
Outside of top-10/Outside of top-10

Is it actually truly nigh-impossible? No; my "guarantee" is sightly hyperbolic. But I don't consider it likely enough to matter.

 

[Viqsi]

Oh, and Tankathon doesn't have 2023 up, but they do have a 2022:
Tankathon | 2022 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator

They're assuming we finish 4th overall; I dunno what that's based on.


EDIT: And it's quite capable of coming up with dream scenarios...

Not that those are likely (I think I hit the "Sim Lottery" button about thirty times before that happened), but, y'know.