More "spare yourself the heartache of acting like it has any significant chance"
10% for each possible slot is not reasonable because it implicitly assumes the following:
1) Finishing in the bottom 10 is the only possible outcome
2) Lottery odds are flat for each finish position
Both of these are inaccurate.
If you have to guesstimate it, I'd suggest having a bell curve for each position rather than a flat 10%. One possible example: 1-10 are 2%, 5%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 15%, 10%, 5%, 5%, and then 8% chance of being outside of that range (read: not a lottery pick, or PLAYOFFS). Using that, ten tries with random.org gets:
8th overall/5th overall
7th overall/9th overall
5th overall/6th overall
7th overall/5th overall
9th overall/6th overall
6th overall/8th overall
3rd overall/6th overall
2nd overall/7th overall
6th overall/7th overall
Outside of top-10/Outside of top-10
Is it actually truly nigh-impossible? No; my "guarantee" is sightly hyperbolic. But I don't consider it likely enough to matter.
Lottery odds are not flat for each finish position, but they are flat-ish when you don't know your finish position. They're much flatter than your curve suggests.
A 6th last team (which seems to be your median) would have a 7.6% chance of picking first. And if you multiply the odds by every point on your curve and add them up you still get a number that would add up to a ~7% chance of drafting 1st. And that's playing along with your 2% chance of finishing last, which seems wildly low to me. I'd say we have a better than 5% chance of finishing dead last.
