Rumor: Progress on Mantha deal being made - shorter term than anticipated?

[Gniwder]

so, Reinhart just signed 1 yr, $5.2m. It would seem like that should be right around what Mantha should command.

If he wanted a 1 year deal, he would have filed for arbitration. They must be close in numbers since he didn't.

Keep in mind Mantha has a history of injuring himself, that factors in.

 

[Winger98]

If he wanted a 1 year deal, he would have filed for arbitration. They must be close in numbers since he didn't.

Keep in mind Mantha has a history of injuring himself, that factors in.

Reinhart has a better track record, but Mantha's deal is expected to be a couple of years longer. I can see $5.2m being in the ballpark for a three year deal.

I look at it like this:

TML general structure:

10M-10M-10M
5M-5M-5M
1M-1M-1M
1M-1M-1M

(Cost of the forward lines). This is how Chicago had to build after their cups. This is generally how Toronto is built now.

I kinda like the :

5M-5M-5M
5M-5M-5M
5M-5M-5M
1M-1M-1M

I think the problem with Toronto is that third $10m guy. They went out and got Tavares, giving them two centers who can drive their lines in the top6. They shouldn't need another line driver on either of those lines. But then they went and gave Marner $10m, too. I think they either needed to not get Tavares, and let Matthews and Marner drive different lines. Or deal Marner, and let Matthews and Tavares drive lines with guys like Nylander, Kapinen, etc. being their wings, freeing that Marner money up to bolster other areas. Assuming they're spending $50m on their forwards, Toronto's structure should have been something like:

$18m line one
$18m line two
$10m line three
$4m line four

A couple of $10m guys can work, but that third one is just killer.

 

[Henkka]

I think the problem with Toronto is that third $10m guy.

A couple of $10m guys can work, but that third one is just killer.

This.

Like our 2008 team was constructed. Zetterberg and Datsyuk as those "10M" guys, on lower cap era. Their 3rd complimentary piese was 3M bargain Holmström.

Then 2 secondary 4-5M pieces in second line, Filppula and Franzen. Bargain complimentary Samuelsson there as 3rd particle.

Checking line Maltby - Draper - Drake. Don't remember the prices, should be 3M-3M-3M in nowadays cap.

4th line, Hudler - Helm - McCarty, two cheap prospects on ELC and mimimum salary veteran.

So our 2008 was:

10M - 10M - 3M
5M - 5M - 1.5M
2M - 2M - 2M
500k - 500k - 500k

Think key moves are to find those 3rd complimentary parts cheap, to play with 2 skill players at Top6 (Zetterberg+Datsyuk, Franzen+Filppula). Holmström was cheap but had special role on the 1st PP net-front. Samuelsson was also cheap and could play effective 2nd PP-point. Small but important things.

What comes to Toronto, they should trade one 10M forward for 10M defenceman, like Doughty. Then that team has perfect balance.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

We can do it with (3) $10M players, as long as 1 of them is a 1D. I proposed this in another thread somewhere:

I think most of the forward estimates are pretty close +/-, the D was harder to guess.

2023:

*=ELC

Raymond* - Barkov $10 - Mantha $6
Bertuzzi $4.9 - Larkin $9 - Zadina $4.5
Fabbri $4 - Veleno $2 - Berggren $2
Soderblom 1.2? - Niederbach* - Rasmussen (new grind line, 2 Troglodytes & a Smurf)

F, F
Troglodyte
Werenski $10 - Seider $3.5?
Johansson $1.5? - Hronek $4.5?
McIsaac $1.4? - Lindstrom $2?
Wallinder* - Tuomisto $1.2?

G
G


Your thoughts on the contract AAV's ??

 

[WingsMJN2965]

We can do it with (3) $10M players, as long as 1 of them is a 1D. I proposed this in another thread somewhere:

I think most of the forward estimates are pretty close +/-, the D was harder to guess.

2023:

*=ELC

Raymond* - Barkov $10 - Mantha $6
Bertuzzi $4.9 - Larkin $9 - Zadina $4.5
Fabbri $4 - Veleno $2 - Berggren $2
Soderblom 1.2? - Niederbach* - ?
F, F

Werenski $10 - Seider $3.5?
Johansson $1.5? - Hronek $4.5?
McIsaac $1.4? - Lindstrom $2?
Wallinder* - Tuomisto $1.2?

G
G


Your thoughts on the contract AAV's ??

Apparently you didn't get it the last time you brought this up...

That plan utterly f***s us when Raymond/Zadina/Seider/Hronek need to be paid.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Apparently you didn't get it the last time you brought this up...

That plan utterly f***s us when Raymond/Zadina/Seider/Hronek need to be paid.

Apparently you didn't read my reply to your thread in the other post...Yzerman has been juggling the cap for 9 seasons, especially the last ~6-7. He'll surround himself with the right staff to make us & keep us in Cup contention for a good 5-7+yr. window. It can be done, we may have to lose (trade) a piece or 2 & replace with good to bluechip ELC guys, rinse repeat. In 5 yrs if we have to trade a Fabbri, Mantha and/or Bert, so what? They'll be 29, 31 & 30 respectively by then. Their best statistical years are likely behind them, or soon to be by then. We can even go with 1A/1B goalie & save cash if we find the right ones.

This is why I'm glad Yzerman is not handing out big/long-term contracts right now. Get Bert cheap for 1 more year, then decide his true value (I love Bert, but don't wanna pay more than $4.9 as he may be on L2/L3 within ~2-3yrs).

Remember when every year for about the last 8+ seasons most people said CHI, then later on TBL etc. couldn't wiggle around the cap, guess what they did. Won some cups in the process & TB's window is still wide open for the forseeable next few years at least. It can be done.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Troglodyte approved.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Apparently you didn't read my reply to your thread in the other post...Yzerman has been juggling the cap for 9 seasons, especially the last ~6-7. He'll surround himself with the right staff to make us & keep us in Cup contention for a good 5-7+yr. window. It can be done, we may have to lose (trade) a piece or 2 & replace with good to bluechip ELC guys, rinse repeat. In 5 yrs if we have to trade a Fabbri, Mantha and/or Bert, so what? They'll be 29, 31 & 30 respectively by then. Their best statistical years are likely behind them, or soon to be by then. We can even go with 1A/1B goalie & save cash if we find the right ones.

This is why I'm glad Yzerman is not handing out big/long-term contracts right now. Get Bert cheap for 1 more year, then decide his true value (I love Bert, but don't wanna pay more than $4.9 as he may be on L2/L3 within ~2-3yrs).

Remember when every year for about the last 8+ seasons most people said CHI, then later on TBL etc. couldn't wiggle around the cap, guess what they did. Won some cups in the process & TB's window is still wide open for the forseeable next few years at least. It can be done.

1. Yzerman had the selling point of no state income tax which, like it or not, did help him keep guys at a lower cap hit.

2. In case you're not paying attention, Tampa is currently f***ed with the cap, to the degree that they had to waive a quality NHL player. Granted, that's not because of bad management, it's because of an overflow of talent, but they're still getting crushed by the cap.

3. How many of Tampa's major players on that Cup team did Yzerman grab from free agency, like you're suggesting? The answer is none. I don't think I can remember Yzerman signing a single big name free agent to a max term contract during his time in Tampa. Not one.

4. You really want to use Chicago as an example of a team that, "Wiggled around the cap and won Cups"? Yeah, let's analyze that...

2014 - 2015: Chicago wins their most recent Cup. Kane and Toews' extensions kick in, raising them from $12.6M total to $21M total. A year later, they threw $7M x 8 at Seabrook and had to trade Panarin for SAAD.

Guess how many playoff series' they've won since Kane and Toews' extensions kicked in. I'll give you a hint... The same number as that team in Canada who also pays multiple players $10M+ a year.

12-13: Stanley Cup
13-14: Game 7 loss WCFs
14-15: Stanley Cup
-------KANE/TOEWS EXTENSIONS------
15-16: Game 7 loss, first round
16-17: Swept, first round.
17-18: Missed playoffs
18-19: Missed playoffs
19-20: First round loss. Shouldn't even have been there. Only 12 games left in the season and they were the worst in their division by five points.

So no, Chicago is not an example of a team that was able to successfully maneuver around the cap... If anything they're actually evidence of why your, "Throw $30M at Barkov/Werenski/Larkin", idea doesn't work...

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

1. Yzerman had the selling point of no sales taxes which, like it or not, did help him keep guys at a lower cap hit.

2. In case you're not paying attention, Tampa is currently f***ed with the cap, to the degree that they had to waive a quality NHL player. Granted, that's not because of bad management, it's because of an overflow of talent, but they're still getting crushed by the cap.

3. How many of Tampa's major players on that Cup team did Yzerman grab from free agency, like you're suggesting? The answer is none. I don't think I can remember Yzerman signing a single big name free agent to a max term contract during his time in Tampa. Not one.

4. You really want to use Chicago as an example of a team that, "Wiggled around the cap and won Cups"? Yeah, let's analyze that...

2014 - 2015: Chicago wins their most recent Cup. Kane and Toews' extensions kick in, raising them from $12.6M total to $21M total. A year later, they threw $7M x 8 at Seabrook and had to trade Panarin for SAAD.

Guess how many playoff series' they've won since Kane and Toews' extensions kicked in. I'll give you a hint... The same number as that team in Canada who also pays multiple players $10M+ a year.

So no, Chicago is not an example of a team that was able to successfully maneuver around the cap... If anything they're actually evidence of why your, "Throw $30M at Barkov/Werenski/Larkin", idea doesn't work...

1. I live in FL so the tax break is nice, However, ~2 weeks ago DobberHockey posted an article on the Fallacy of the "no state tax" being an advantage. You can search my posts & find it. Try using "agent" as Key word in the search, as they alluded to an agent talking about different options that can be done, players/GMs/staff/agents all know about it. So it's not the big advantage at all really. I don't remember the specifics & I'm not an A&F guy either....look it up really, if you doubt it.

2. They got their cap & still have the best team on paper, with a 5-7 yr. window & youngish core, save for Stamkos etc. Who cares if they lose a couple of picks to jettison TJ & Killorn. They're the favorites next Cup too.

3. If we don't draft/develop the elite talent (Barkov & Werenski) we gotta go get 'em, but Either Way, we'd still have to pay them ~market value.

4. Yes, Chicago, 3 cups, still have tradeable pieces (Kane, Toews) w/some retention. etc. Seabs was a bad contract when it was signed, agreed.

5. I'm adding that I'll take 3 cups, numerous WCF's, division champs & revenue in exchange for a few down years 10+ yrs later to kick off a retool/rebuild.

Are you just gonna hope Dylan takes $7.5? Do you think Veleno will be a 2A (55-60pt C) ? We gotta have 1 elite D also, enter Werenski, D-Boss's buddy.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

1. I live in FL so the tax break is nice, However, ~2 weeks ago DobberHockey posted an article on the Fallacy of the "no state tax" being an advantage. You can search my posts & find it. Try using "agent" as Key word in the search, as they alluded to an agent talking about different options that can be done, players/GMs/staff/agents all know about it. So it's not the big advantage at all really. I don't remember the specifics & I'm not an A&F guy either....look it up really, if you doubt it.

2. They got their cap & still have the best team on paper, with a 5-7 yr. window & youngish core, save for Stamkos etc. Who cares if they lose a couple of picks to jettison TJ & Killorn. They're the favorites next Cup too.

3. If we don't draft/develop the elite talent (Barkov & Werenski) we gotta go get 'em, but Either Way, we'd still have to pay them ~market value.

4. Yes, Chicago, 3 cups, still have tradeable pieces (Kane, Toews) w/some retention. etc. Seabs was a bad contract when it was signed, agreed.

5. I'm adding that I'll take 3 cups, numerous WCF's, division champs & revenue in exchange for a few down years 10+ yrs later to kick off a retool/rebuild.

Are you just gonna hope Dylan takes $7.5? Do you think Veleno will be a 2A (55-60pt C) ? We gotta have 1 elite D also, enter Werenski, D-Boss's buddy.

I've gotta get to bed and can't address all of this at the moment, so for now I'll leave it at this... There are two teams in the NHL that have multiple players making $10M+. Would you like to know how many playoff series those two teams have won?

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I've gotta get to bed and can't address all of this at the moment, so for now I'll leave it at this... There are two teams in the NHL that have multiple players making $10M+. Would you like to know how many playoff series those two teams have won?

In 3 years, there'll very likely be numerous teams with multiple $10M players.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

In 3 years, there'll very likely be numerous teams with multiple $10M players.

Since you didn't answer the question, it was zero.

 

[Pavels Dog]

In 3 years, there'll very likely be numerous teams with multiple $10M players.

unlikely given the covid situation. flat cap should be expected for a few years.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

In 3 years, there'll very likely be numerous teams with multiple $10M players.

With a flat cap? No way. GMs look at teams like Toronto with scenario you’re taking about already in play and want nothing to do with it

 

[datsyukfan]

Mantha signed for 4 years

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Awesome deal for both Detroit and Mantha, Congratulation on 4 more seasons big Tony.