Post-Game Talk: Prerequiste for preseason pre-game talk Canadiens Vs. Devils

[Habs Halifax]

Allen contract + Petry retention tell us that Hughes seem to target 25/26 as first year to try to contend

I don't think he is looking at a certain year. I do think he has a long term vision he will stick with and then also monitor it year/year. The challenges will be different as each season passes.

If you were to look at odds on when we should contend? It's when Suzuki is 27/28 and Reinbacher is 21/22 (everyone else we have at the moment is in the middle age range of that). That's more likely the 26/27 or 27/28 season.

Contending for playoffs or contending for a cup are two different conversations too. Were you talking about contending for the playoffs? Not sure. If so, that could happen after this season or the following one after that. 24/25 or 25/26. But for a cup, that's a bit later IMO.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

I missed the 2nd half of that game but up until then Farrell was making some really nice passes. He looks quicker too. He needs time though. If he keeps improving then he could be a luxury 3rd liner.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I’d brace myself for that if I were you.

I expect a 9-12 finish this year. Next year, 13-16, so the 25-26 season makes sense.

While the rebuild started in 21-22, that year was more like a kick in the nutsack and a complete mess-up by the prior management going into the season. While the 23 draft didn’t thrill me, and not all moves have been great, the past two years have just been cleaning up the mess.

We’re rebuilding of course during this time, and I do think we need a couple more years. I expect this year to be painful and annoying, but the push will hopefully come next year. It’s possible we’ll make the playoffs, but I expect a close finish but still fall short.

8-12 or 9-12 range is where I see us falling too. It's going to come down to injuries and if we have the normal amount or historic amount again. I expect several vets and youth to improve.

The other part of me wants to widen the range to 8-16. I feel like if we stay healthy, we fall in that range and I won't be shocked if it's a 12-16 range pick. I have our playoff chances set around 5% or less but another top 5 pick as similar odds (5-10%). Too many teams will try to move down while we are trying to move up.

This season has move up slightly written all over it. We will see

 

[Captain Mountain]

Hughes will have had three years to rebuild the team. If you think that is insufficient to get to 8th in the conference, I think that’s your low standards.

Hughes inherited a 1OA pick, Caufield, Suzuki, Guhle, and a carte blanche to sell NHL assets. If he can’t add the requisite talent to finish in the top8 of a 16 team conference after three years, I think that’s his problem.

GMs shouldn’t get half a decade+ to twaddle around whistling frere jacques.

If you think that 8th in the conference should show up anywhere on any list of goals for the front office, coaching staff or players, then you have even lower standards than I. The goal is to win a cup. Period. Sneaking into playoffs year 3 is not a measure of growth or success.

I'm not sure why you think a 1st OA in a weak draft year, two young NHLers who hadn't (and haven't) established themselves as 1st line players on a competitive team, and carte blanche to sell assets on a team with the worst cap outlook in the league (and one of the worst cap outlooks of any team for a while) with only a few trade assets of any value is some sort of bonus either. Most new GMs in the NHL inherit better situations.

I'm also not sure what you mean by "GMs shouldn’t get half a decade+ to twaddle around whistling frere jacques." Even if HuGo were sitting on their thumbs (they very clearly aren't), that's still a timetable that doesn't make sense. Teams like Tampa, Colorado, New Jersey, Carolina, etc. spend more than 3 seasons not being competitive, and they didn't make as many ill-conceived moves as Bergevin, who is closer to a Nonis in Toronto impact.

 

[1909]

From last night's game:

Anderson played well (NHL)

Newhook had trouble with the draws, but made some nice plays (NHL)

Slafkovsky had some nice dangle passes. Had a tough first period. I'd like to see him get some AHL games at some point, because I feel like there's a lot of skill ready to bust out. Still, was one of the best Habs forwards in this split squad game. (NHL/AHL)

Roy - he's so good! Wow! Gonna be hard to send him down! (NHL/AHL)

Beck - really like his game. Great on draws. So much jam. Another super tough decision. Ultimately think he heads back to junior? So hard to know. (OHL/NHL?)

Ylonen - I'm a big keep Ylonen guy, but I was pretty unimpressed by him. He's very vanilla. His shot is nice though. Still has great skating. Got better as the game continued. Can certainly play in the press box at this point. (NHL/AHL?)

Farrell - I really like his game. Showed the best on his line. Ultimately I think he'll start in the AHL because of the numbers game. (AHL)

Stephens - generally I wasn't all that impressed. (AHL)

Pezzetta - he didn't really do anything. Does he lose his spot? First time I started really considering this as a possibility. (NHL/AHL?)

Simoneau - nice pass to Roy on that first goal. Rest of the game he was generally not up to the level of the competition. I do believe he'll improve with more time. He's not ready. (AHL)

Condotta - my fav player on this line. Nice size. Skating seems maybe better? Was decently quick to get on loose picks. Is he waiver exempt? I like this guy. Is he such a dropoff from Pezzetta? I don't know. I think there might be something here moving forward. (AHL)

Légaré - I actually liked him. Hope he has a good year in Laval. (AHL)

Guhle - didn't seem to play very well. He's a guy I could see having a harder sophomore season. (NHL)

Reinbacher - he looked really good, but not ready. (NLA)

Harris - looked like the best dman for the Habs. Nice skating and processing. (NHL)

Mailloux - like his tools, but he's not ready. He probably benefitted from playing with Harris. (AHL)

Xhekaj - looked pretty uneven. Had some ok plays but also some pretty poor ones. I do think he could benefit a lot from playing in the AHL because the stuff he most needs to work on they teach down there. (NHL/AHL)

Barron - he's so vanilla. I don't know. He'll be competing with Kovacevic and Lindstrom and maybe one of the LHD to play the right side. He needs more gristle. Given the numbers game maybe he starts in the AHL again? I mean, no point keeping him up to play the press box, I don't think. (AHL?/NHL?)

Unless they can get rif of Armia and even Ylonen, there is not much room for newcomers like Roy, who will have to start at AHL level. But If Hughes can make him some space, we should see him soon at NHL level. (before Chrismas). Xhekaj has to come back to Earth. He is very popular with fans, but MSL won't endure sloppy plays from him, even if he is the only team's strongman.

 

[Team_Spirit]

lol rip

 

[Jaynki]

lol rip

He has to be in the conversation with the McDavid, McKinnon and Matthews.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Wouldnt bank on it.

Bunch of guys (Guhle, Xhekaj, Barron, Slafkosvky, etc) will need bigger deals in the next few years.

Plus, like you said, we still don't have any real gamebeaking talent. Maybe Hutson. We need more of that before we make any kind of push

We're talking about next offseason. Barron and Xhekaj (and Montembault) are the only guys who need new contracts and neither Barron nor Xhekaj are likely to earn significant raises. In 2025-2026, Montreal has $50 mil in contracts on the books including Price (the only bad contracts still on the books would be Gallagher's, Price's and arguably Anderson's).

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

He has to be in the conversation with the McDavid, McKinnon and Matthews.

It can't be overstated how it was pretty much consensus that Lafreniere was going to be better.

You just can't listen to people when they say what draft is weak and what isn't with any kind of authority or certainty only a year after it's been held.

 

[RationalExpectations]

I don't think he is looking at a certain year. I do think he has a long term vision he will stick with and then also monitor it year/year. The challenges will be different as each season passes.

If you were to look at odds on when we should contend? It's when Suzuki is 27/28 and Reinbacher is 21/22 (everyone else we have at the moment is in the middle age range of that). That's more likely the 26/27 or 27/28 season.

Contending for playoffs or contending for a cup are two different conversations too. Were you talking about contending for the playoffs? Not sure. If so, that could happen after this season or the following one after that. 24/25 or 25/26. But for a cup, that's a bit later IMO.

Yes sorry I meant for playoffs but as shown by STL in 2019 or FLA last year once you are in the playoffs anything Can happen

 

[Jaynki]

It can't be overstated how it was pretty much consensus that Lafreniere was going to be better.

You just can't listen to people when they say what draft is weak and what isn't with any kind of authority or certainty only a year after it's been held.

Its a game based on probability and speculation and we also can't overstate how much variance there is.

2022 draft was advertised as weak yet if Slaf and Cooley reach their ceiling we are looking at two potential star and Nemec, Jiricek are looking like future stud and Wright and Gauthier are also pretty f***ing legit.

So yeah.

 

[ReHabs]

If you think that 8th in the conference should show up anywhere on any list of goals for the front office, coaching staff or players, then you have even lower standards than I. The goal is to win a cup. Period. Sneaking into playoffs year 3 is not a measure of growth or success.

Never said 8th is a target or a goal. I believe it is only ordinary to expect a team to grow into playoff team stature and then go on from there. If you expect a team that misses the playoffs 3+ years in a row to suddenly become Cup favourites, that's on you. Walk before your run -- a lot of these young players will need playoff experience and seasoning before they're considered playoff players.

I'm not sure why you think a 1st OA in a weak draft year, two young NHLers who hadn't (and haven't) established themselves as 1st line players on a competitive team, and carte blanche to sell assets on a team with the worst cap outlook in the league (and one of the worst cap outlooks of any team for a while) with only a few trade assets of any value is some sort of bonus either. Most new GMs in the NHL inherit better situations.

Minnesota, as an example, had a far worse Cap situation. Montreal's was bad for sure though.

I don't think it's unfair to say that Hughes inherited some assets. This wasn't a full strip-down rebuild, Suzuki and Caufield alone are quite valuable.

I'm also not sure what you mean by "GMs shouldn’t get half a decade+ to twaddle around whistling frere jacques." Even if HuGo were sitting on their thumbs (they very clearly aren't), that's still a timetable that doesn't make sense. Teams like Tampa, Colorado, New Jersey, Carolina, etc. spend more than 3 seasons not being competitive, and they didn't make as many ill-conceived moves as Bergevin, who is closer to a Nonis in Toronto impact.

I think this season will determine our trajectory. If the players step up even an average amount, we will be closer to success than you make out to be and can very well be a playoff team as early as next season. If they don't, well, we'll have problems.

 

[MasterD]

We're talking about next offseason. Barron and Xhekaj (and Montembault) are the only guys who need new contracts and neither Barron nor Xhekaj are likely to earn significant raises. In 2025-2026, Montreal has $50 mil in contracts on the books including Price (the only bad contracts still on the books would be Gallagher's, Price's and arguably Anderson's).

Barron got 15 points in 39 games last year.

Xhekaj was good all around (weakened defensively at the end of the season, admittedly) and brought something new to this team.

Of they both improve this year, they could easily be in the 3-4M$/year by next year.

And just cause we don't need the money THIS offeason doesn't me we can go out and sign ufas to long term contacts. Then you can't sign your young studs when the time comes.

 

[MasterD]

To get to that tier, barring aggressive wheeling and dealing (Vegas), the team has to make the playoffs and optimize. Tampa smoked the regular season and then got smoked in the first round, after that they had success in the playoffs. Colorado went through two rebuilds, something nobody sane would vouch as a successful and reliable strategy.

It is nobody's desire to have a middle of the road team, but a rebuild shouldn't take four whole years in my opinion -- there are far too many downside risks to an extended period of losing. Buffalo and Edmonton come to mind. Not to mention: if you're banking on us drafting high this year and next year, then you surely don't expect our core players to amount to much at all. If we draft top5 this year, what does that mean of Suzuki et al. contribution? If we draft top5 next year, what does that imply of Slafkovsky's growth? Can none of these players get us out of the gutter? That's an even bigger problem, wouldn't you agree?


Not sure how you can square the above text with your response to me. If they need bigger deals, they'll have earned it with sufficiently better performances -- wouldn't that imply we won't be drafting top5 in 2024 or 2025?

Didn't say anything about top 5. Caufield, Suzuki, Guhle weren't top 5. Hutson wasn't top 5.

KK, Galchenyuk were top 5, we don't need that.

I'm saying going out and signing big name UFAs at this point would be pretty stupid.

 

[Trabdy2]

A few of my notes on some of the younger guys:

Slafkovsky - I liked what I saw. It's clear to me that he has lots of tools. Pace of play and decision making with and without the puck need to get quicker, but I think he's going to figure it out in time. It'll probably take a year or two before everything starts to click. Until then, I just hope he's able to play safely enough to avoid injuries, whether it's in the AHL or NHL.

Harris - Looked pretty steady out there. Hard to imagine he doesn't start in the top 6.

Xhekaj - Looked awkward at times and he was adjusting to the speed of the game. It's very nice to see his physicality though. It's been a while since he played so the need for adjustment isn't too unexpected.

Mailloux - His offensive flair is valuable and exciting, but his defensive deficiencies are glaring. His gap control and rush defence need a lot of attention. Shot accuracy also needs some work - it's all over the place. AHL time needed.

Ylonen - He was very noticeable to me and often involved in the play, but had an up and down game. I'm not ready to give up on him yet - he has lots of tools and I think he's still pulling his game together. He took a big step last year, I think there's a good chance he has it in him to take one more this year. I like his willingness to shoot and his shot selection.

Roy - He plays a pro-style game with quick decision making and nifty small area plays. He disappeared for stretches too, though. I'd like to see him get a bit stronger before taking on an NHL role.

Farrell - He made some good plays out there. I think he's going to need time in the AHL to tool his game to compensate for his smaller frame, but he thinks the game at a pretty high level.

Reinbacher - I think he's a gonna be a stud, but needs a bit more time to develop outside the NHL. There's a lot to like in his game, and the main thing I'd like to see him work at is his puck control. He tends to bobble it more often than I'd like to see.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Never said 8th is a target or a goal. I believe it is only ordinary to expect a team to grow into playoff team stature and then go on from there. If you expect a team that misses the playoffs 3+ years in a row to suddenly become Cup favourites, that's on you. Walk before your run -- a lot of these young players will need playoff experience and seasoning before they're considered playoff players.

Minnesota, as an example, had a far worse Cap situation. Montreal's was bad for sure though.

I don't think it's unfair to say that Hughes inherited some assets. This wasn't a full strip-down rebuild, Suzuki and Caufield alone are quite valuable.

I think this season will determine our trajectory. If the players step up even an average amount, we will be closer to success than you make out to be and can very well be a playoff team as early as next season. If they don't, well, we'll have problems.

-Why? Making the playoffs doesn't inherently say anything about growth of a team, other than actually being able to compete for a cup. Winning more/getting more points is a better sign of growth, but even that isn't a perfect measure because of how much luck plays a role. Like, Colorado and Tampa are two recent cup winners who don't match that profile at all.

-You talking about when Guerin became GM in August of 2019? The Wild had two consensus top-15 prospects in the NHL (Kaprisov and Boldy) and a top-10 D-core in the NHL. And their cap situation still wasn't as bad as Montreal's was.

-I'm not saying Hughes didn't inherit assets, its that what he inherited wasn't all that significant. New GMs almost never inherit a full strip-down rebuild with zero assets. They either have young players of Suzuki and Caufield's ilk or better, veterans with substantial trade value, or both. I like Guhle's upside, but if you think a recent mid-1st who was consider a good but not great prospect is a guy worth mentioning then you're not actually paying attention to what other teams have/had.

-That's cool, but also misses my point entirely. Playoffs is not the goal, growth is. They don't need to make the playoffs next season, they need to continue developing. Who they're competing with matters too. It would be reasonable to not consider Montreal a playoff contender in 2024-2025 if all of Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, Newhook and Slaf end up as 60-80 point players and Guhle establishes himself as a top pair D. Because that may not be enough to be better than the other teams in the division/conference. And even a tough season doesn't necessarily mean that there will be problems, because growth isn't linear.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Barron got 15 points in 39 games last year.

Xhekaj was good all around (weakened defensively at the end of the season, admittedly) and brought something new to this team.

Of they both improve this year, they could easily be in the 3-4M$/year by next year.

And just cause we don't need the money THIS offeason doesn't me we can go out and sign ufas to long term contacts. Then you can't sign your young studs when the time comes.

You think that Barron and Xhekaj will show sufficient growth to get second contracts that rich? I appreciate that optimism, but they'd have to play at a 2-3 D level based on past comparables, and neither have played anywhere close to that level yet.

And if Montreal is in a position where they need 40 mil to pay Barron, Xhekaj, Guhle, Slaf, etc. within the next two seasons, they likely wont need any expensive UFAs, since the implication is that they're going to have one of the best young cores in the NHL. That seems like quite the assumption tbh.

 

[Runner77]

Vomit in half a second?

Projectile vomit.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You think that Barron and Xhekaj will show sufficient growth to get second contracts that rich? I appreciate that optimism, but they'd have to play at a 2-3 D level based on past comparables, and neither have played anywhere close to that level yet.

And if Montreal is in a position where they need 40 mil to pay Barron, Xhekaj, Guhle, Slaf, etc. within the next two seasons, they likely wont need any expensive UFAs, since the implication is that they're going to have one of the best young cores in the NHL. That seems like quite the assumption tbh.

If I was betting money or was forced to bet money today... I'd say both Barron and Xhekaj end up with bridge contracts (like Harris, Newhook, Dach and RHP).

Guhle and Slaf are at different spots. Guhle might end up getting the long term deal if the term/AAV makes sense for both sides. Slaf has 2 more ELC years left so it's too hard to guess on that right now.

 

[FloJack]

Projectile vomit.

Pukeovsky

 

[Captain97]

Reinbacher - I think he's a gonna be a stud, but needs a bit more time to develop outside the NHL. There's a lot to like in his game, and the main thing I'd like to see him work at is his puck control. He tends to bobble it more often than I'd like to see.

I'm a huge reinbacher fan since before the draft, and I think he'll be our best Dman. But I also agree and I think he's one season in Europe and half-full season in the AHL before he should be full time with the Habs.

 

[yianik]

Harris is a mystery. Since last year people gave him his bus ticket out of Montreal, but the coach played him a decent amount of time.

This year Harris is about the 1st guy on D people want to trade.

I wwatch Harris and nothing really stands out, but he plays pretty well. I hope he got stronger over the summer.

So nothing standing about the guy, but I think we should keep him and just see where he is closer to the end of the year

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Hughes will have had three years to rebuild the team. If you think that is insufficient to get to 8th in the conference, I think that’s your low standards.

Hughes inherited a 1OA pick, Caufield, Suzuki, Guhle, and a carte blanche to sell NHL assets. If he can’t add the requisite talent to finish in the top8 of a 16 team conference after three years, I think that’s his problem.

GMs shouldn’t get half a decade+ to twaddle around whistling frere jacques.

There were very few assets to sell. HuGo has done better than anyone could have expected. It now depends on how the draft picks turn out.

 

[CheldishGamibno]

I missed the 2nd half of that game but up until then Farrell was making some really nice passes. He looks quicker too. He needs time though. If he keeps improving then he could be a luxury 3rd liner.

that's true but he's way too weak to be an effective NHL player. Let's hope he bulks up a bit in the A, needs some legs strength too.

 

[Wayfarer13]

Wouldnt bank on it.

Bunch of guys (Guhle, Xhekaj, Barron, Slafkosvky, etc) will need bigger deals in the next few years.

Plus, like you said, we still don't have any real gamebeaking talent. Maybe Hutson. We need more of that before we make any kind of push


Finishing 8th in a conference shouldn't be the goal. I'd rather suck a year or two more but then be talked about in the same tier as Tampa and Colorado and Vegas

Players needing contracts is just regular business. There are contracts that come due who will not be renewed as in any year. Next year we should be in a better place as the ones being resigned will not be big money and the cap is expected to rise. Two years from now there will be six significant contracts that will end that I don't see being resigned added to that the increase in the cap. The next year will be the Price and Matheson contracts along with the increase in the cap. The year after that Gallagher and Anderson. We are not in a situation to panic.