GWT: Premier League Week of 1/14-1/15

[Havre]

Bayern is not in reach for Tottenham. Revenue doesn't translate perfectly to buying power, even if Tottenham did reach Bayern in revenue, which they also won't do. Bayern's revenue grew by €302M from 2009 to 2016. Tottenham's revenue grew by €146M from 2009 to 2015, and will definitely not grow enough this year to approach Bayern's level. Bayern is the #1 destination for every player and coach in the German-speaking world, an area full of extremely talented players and coaches, and they have a very good academy of their own. Tottenham is the sixth largest club in England, and bought most of their key players from other clubs. There's simply no way you can slice it that you could possibly be optimistic that Tottenham will catch Bayern.

Clubs like Atletico and Juventus also don't operate in the same inflated market as Tottenham. Spain is the first stop for talented and cheap South American players, and also develops a lot more of its own talent than the EPL, and talented homegrown players are far easier to find.

In 2009 Spurs were a typical old school English team. A small traditional stadium with more or less no corporate facilities/boxes. Decent, but rather unspectacular training ground.

In 2017/18 Spurs will have one of the best stadiums in Europe in the most expensive football city in the world. Training ground is top of the art. Spurs will go from lagging €35m behind in match day revenue compared to BM to probably making €15-20m more. Kit deal is today around €30m per year less than BM. Rumours suggest that the new deal with Nike will close around €20m of that gap. Something similar will happen with the main sponsorships. The only part were Spurs can't catch BM in the foreseeable future in terms of finances is the rest of the commercial part. Clearly BM will have a much wider reach there for many many years.

As for talent I don't know. Personally I hope the Bundesliga is successful. I much prefer the way that league is operated compared to the PL (a shame Leipzig is partly ruining it - so we will see). But as BM might be the preferred choice for German speaking players initially these players also seek to play in the best and most competitive leagues. I wouldn't underestimate what is now happening in England with clubs like Spurs and Liverpool upgrading their facilities and hiring proper managers. As of today it is a no brainer for 99% of all players choosing between a contract at BM and Spurs/Liverpool. BM can pay more and offer a shot at something in the CL. Come 2018-19-20 that choice won't be as obvious any longer. Pay might be quite similar and the number of "big games" in the PL will most likely be far greater.

 

[Deficient Mode]

In 2009 Spurs were a typical old school English team. A small traditional stadium with more or less no corporate facilities/boxes. Decent, but rather unspectacular training ground.

In 2017/18 Spurs will have one of the best stadiums in Europe in the most expensive football city in the world. Training ground is top of the art. Spurs will go from lagging €35m behind in match day revenue compared to BM to probably making €15-20m more. Kit deal is today around €30m per year less than BM. Rumours suggest that the new deal with Nike will close around €20m of that gap. Something similar will happen with the main sponsorships. The only part were Spurs can't catch BM in the foreseeable future in terms of finances is the rest of the commercial part. Clearly BM will have a much wider reach there for many many years.

As for talent I don't know. Personally I hope the Bundesliga is successful. I much prefer the way that league is operated compared to the PL (a shame Leipzig is partly ruining it - so we will see). But as BM might be the preferred choice for German speaking players initially these players also seek to play in the best and most competitive leagues. I wouldn't underestimate what is now happening in England with clubs like Spurs and Liverpool upgrading their facilities and hiring proper managers. As of today it is a no brainer for 99% of all players choosing between a contract at BM and Spurs/Liverpool. BM can pay more and offer a shot at something in the CL. Come 2018-19-20 that choice won't be as obvious any longer. Pay might be quite similar and the number of "big games" in the PL will most likely be far greater.

Well if you really want to talk yourself into it you can. Spurs will be in debt for a long time to pay for that stadium. Bayern have an extremely nice stadium that is fully paid off. Bayern's kit and tv money won't stay static either, even if Tottenham reach the total revenue where Bayern is now. Nor will Bayern's commercial money, which more than doubled from 2009 to 2016. Again, I said in the near future, and there is nothing happening at any level of the respective clubs where Spurs have an advantage over Bayern to think they could even approach them in the next 5-10 years. Bayern has one of the best financial models in football, and it will stay that way.

 

[Havre]

BMs Kit deal is signed until 2030 - so not much will change there.

A question of diminishing returns. Spurs will more than double their match day revenue - BM can't. Signing a sponsorship agreement with Spurs now is totally different than just a couple of seasons ago. For BM it is more or less the same.

It's not a question of talking myself into anything. In 5-6 years there will be an answer to this regardless of what I believe.

 

[Evilo]

Probably because he like Guardiola wasn't the driving force for such deals. He just presided over three of the biggest spending clubs in that time period. No manager could possibly have enough clout to walk into Madrid and tell Perez not to buy new toys. Milan in that era wasn't a small spender either.

Oh come on, he also BENEFITED from those big spending.
You don't think Ancelotti benefited from having a roster with Ibra and Thiago Silva bought in the summer?

 

[Deficient Mode]

BMs Kit deal is signed until 2030 - so not much will change there.

A question of diminishing returns. Spurs will more than double their match day revenue - BM can't. Signing a sponsorship agreement with Spurs now is totally different than just a couple of seasons ago. For BM it is more or less the same.

It's not a question of talking myself into anything. In 5-6 years there will be an answer to this regardless of what I believe.

Bayern's kit deal can almost certainly be renegotiated, as they renegotiated the previous deal halfway through and tripled its value... and Bayern's tickets are dirt cheap, of course they "can" increase their matchday revenue. Their tv revenue is about to improve tremendously, too. They have a **** ton more money and operate in a far less inflated transfer/wages market. It's a no-brainer.

 

[Deficient Mode]

Oh come on, he also BENEFITED from those big spending.
You don't think Ancelotti benefited from having a roster with Ibra and Thiago Silva bought in the summer?

Of course he benefited from it. But he's also not the one doing all the spending, so I find it misleading to make a 10 year history of how much various managers have spent in the transfer market.

 

[Havre]

Bayern's kit deal can almost certainly be renegotiated, as they renegotiated the previous deal halfway through and tripled its value... and Bayern's tickets are dirt cheap, of course they "can" increase their matchday revenue. Their tv revenue is about to improve tremendously, too. They have a **** ton more money and operate in a far less inflated transfer/wages market. It's a no-brainer.

Yes, and PL TV revenue is at a standstill.... uhm.... wait.....

I say it is a no-brainer that clubs like Spurs will start closing the gap. So 1-1 in no brainers then.

 

[Deficient Mode]

Yes, and PL TV revenue is at a standstill.... uhm.... wait.....

I say it is a no-brainer that clubs like Spurs will start closing the gap. So 1-1 in no brainers then.

PL revenue has been rising dramatically for over a decade. Bayern's has still been growing faster than Tottenham's. The notion that playing in the EPL alone will be enough to eclipse a club like Bayern when you have the sixth biggest club in England is absurd. Clubs won't close the gap. The gap between United's revenue and the rest of England has only grown in the past 10 years despite the television deals. Same applies to Bayern.

 

[Havre]

I didn't say that Spurs will grow faster than BM only because Spurs is playing in the PL. I mentioned specific reasons to why Spurs is growing fast and that BM will run into diminishing returns.

Clubs won't close the gaps, but leagues will?

Now we are 1-1 in both absurdities and no-brainers.

 

[Deficient Mode]

I didn't say that Spurs will grow faster than BM only because Spurs is playing in the PL. I mentioned specific reasons to why Spurs is growing fast and that BM will run into diminishing returns.

Clubs won't close the gaps, but leagues will?

Now we are 1-1 in both absurdities and no-brainers.

Where did I say that...

Diminishing returns as a concept applies to production, not to a business where revenue is driven by exposure and popularity.

 

[Havre]

So if the gap between the Bundesliga and the PL won't close (or getting closer) how is that not helping Spurs closing in on BM?

And BM has topped out their production in terms of attendance. Spurs will almost double their, but BM can't. They already got close to the best sponsorship deals in the world. Difficult for them to get that much more. Spurs got old deals based on being a small club without much exposure outside of the UK. The Nike deal means they will overtake teams like AC Milan and Juventus. Talking about absurdities - that would have been absurd only 5-6 years ago.

It's fine. You might think it is absurd and a no-brainer, but unless you got any more substance than historical trends, which I have explained why isn't necessarily all that relevant going forward (you might disagree of course), this is quickly becoming a rather boring exchange.

 

[Deficient Mode]

So if the gap between the Bundesliga and the PL won't close (or getting closer) how is that not helping Spurs closing in on BM?

And BM has topped out their production in terms of attendance. Spurs will almost double their, but BM can't. They already got close to the best sponsorship deals in the world. Difficult for them to get that much more. Spurs got old deals based on being a small club without much exposure outside of the UK. The Nike deal means they will overtake teams like AC Milan and Juventus. Talking about absurdities - that would have been absurd only 5-6 years ago.

It's fine. You might think it is absurd and a no-brainer, but unless you got any more substance than historical trends, which I have explained why isn't necessarily all that relevant going forward (you might disagree of course), this is quickly becoming a rather boring exchange.

No, that's wrong. They tripled their kit deal in five years. Companies like Adidas will only pour more money into them as that exposure becomes more valuable.

Tottenham haven't overtaken Juventus yet in revenue and there's no guarantee that they will. In terms of on the field product it very probably won't happen.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Tottenham...lol. They have quite a bit of work to do on the European stage before you can put them in the class of the big boys.

 

[hatterson]

Spurs could certainly see their revenue and international stature increase if they could actually make the CL elimination stages or become a legitimate PL title threat. That's a big if though.

 

[Blender]

Tottenham's financial power is definitely on the rise and will likely continue to rise, but they need to consistently qualify for the CL, win some EPL titles, and get into the later stages of the CL a couple times before they will have enough prestige to be a legitimate competitor.

 

[bluesfan94]

Spurs could certainly see their revenue and international stature increase if they could actually make the CL elimination stages or become a legitimate PL title threat. That's a big if though.

Especially with Madrid sniffing around Alli already. If they can keep him, that would be big for them. I think Kane'll stick around, but they need to keep people like Alli if they want to stay title contenders/continental contenders. With such a close race for the top 4 this year, I could see them falling out of the top 4 which could lead to a mini-exodus of people like Alli/Lloris/Walker that would really hurt them.

 

[Havre]

Tottenham's financial power is definitely on the rise and will likely continue to rise, but they need to consistently qualify for the CL, win some EPL titles, and get into the later stages of the CL a couple times before they will have enough prestige to be a legitimate competitor.

Prestige doesn´t matter much. Chelsea and City are small clubs historically. Now Spurs will never have the kind of money available that Chelsea and City have had through their owners, but playing in front of 61k in London has a certain appeal when the paycheck is decent regardless of "prestige".

 

[Halladay]

Poch is a great manager, though Im not sure he and Alli and maybe Kane will be there much longer.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Prestige doesn´t matter much. Chelsea and City are small clubs historically. Now Spurs will never have the kind of money available that Chelsea and City have had through their owners, but playing in front of 61k in London has a certain appeal when the paycheck is decent regardless of "prestige".

Tottenham has the potential to be a big club, but until they win more on the European level or win a league title, they won't be on that level. Chelsea and City accomplished that and became big clubs.

Sure, they will have a big stadium in London, but so does Arsenal and Chelsea is building their's as well. They will be #3 in London. Prestige means a lot, players want to play and have a real chance for titles. If Alli and Kane don't elevate Tottenham to that level soon, they will eventually leave, same with Pochettino.

Tottenham has to get to Dortmund or Atletico level first.

 

[Blender]

Prestige doesn´t matter much. Chelsea and City are small clubs historically. Now Spurs will never have the kind of money available that Chelsea and City have had through their owners, but playing in front of 61k in London has a certain appeal when the paycheck is decent regardless of "prestige".

City makes the CL every year and Chelsea has won a CL as well as making it almost every year. Arsenal also makes the CL every year. Manchester United typically makes the CL. Both Chelsea and City have won multiple league titles in the last decade. Since all of them pay high wages now, Tottenham is either going to have to pay more, or be a better place to win. Throwing money at players can get you pretty far, but if you want to pay competitive wages and not Chinese wages, you'll have to win as well.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Poch is a great manager, though Im not sure he and Alli and maybe Kane will be there much longer.

Kane and Dele were both named as top 10 highest valued players in the world by some group

http://www.football-observatory.com/IMG/sites/b5wp/2016/172/en/

Kane valued at 139 million euros and Dele at 110.

Neymar tops the list at 247 million

 

[Havre]

Tottenham has the potential to be a big club, but until they win more on the European level or win a league title, they won't be on that level. Chelsea and City accomplished that and became big clubs.

Sure, they will have a big stadium in London, but so does Arsenal and Chelsea is building their's as well. They will be #3 in London. Prestige means a lot, players want to play and have a real chance for titles. If Alli and Kane don't elevate Tottenham to that level soon, they will eventually leave, same with Pochettino.

What does it mean to be a "legitimate competitor"?

I agree to be considered a "big club" you need to win, but you don´t need the prestige to win in the first place.

A bit lucky with a couple of young players like Kane and Alli along with a new stadium and you might just win something.

Every year so many assume that players will just leave. Henry stayed almost his whole career at Arsenal. Gerrard, Lampard, Scholes etc. never went to RM or Barcelona. Of course some will like Ronaldo, but above a certain level it is very rare to see players move between these top clubs. Spurs clearly wasn´t at that level when the Berbatov, Modric and Bale left, but that is the old Spurs - not comparable to the 2017/18 version.

 

[bleedblue1223]

What does it mean to be a "legitimate competitor"?

I agree to be considered a "big club" you need to win, but you don´t need the prestige to win in the first place.

A bit lucky with a couple of young players like Kane and Alli along with a new stadium and you might just win something.

Every year so many assume that players will just leave. Henry stayed almost his whole career at Arsenal. Gerrard, Lampard, Scholes etc. never went to RM or Barcelona. Of course some will like Ronaldo, but above a certain level it is very rare to see players move between these top clubs. Spurs clearly wasn´t at that level when the Berbatov, Modric and Bale left, but that is the old Spurs - not comparable to the 2017/18 version.

For the most part the clubs those players were on won. Spurs still aren't at that point yet. You could argue that it's likely or probable that they get there, but they still aren't there yet.

The next step is to be a Dortmund or Atletico. Those clubs as successful as they are still lose their big names to other clubs because they don't consistently threaten to win in Europe, they have their ups and downs. When you are at a Chelsea or City, while they are a step down from the top tier, the goal every year is to win Champions League. The goal at Tottenham is consistently getting top 4, that's a big difference for players.

You don't need prestige to win, but you need prestige to retain talent that you have. Tottenham needs a quarter-final or semi-final finish in Europe in the next few years to retain the talent that they have IMO.

 

[Havre]

City makes the CL every year and Chelsea has won a CL as well as making it almost every year. Arsenal also makes the CL every year. Manchester United typically makes the CL. Both Chelsea and City have won multiple league titles in the last decade. Since all of them pay high wages now, Tottenham is either going to have to pay more, or be a better place to win. Throwing money at players can get you pretty far, but if you want to pay competitive wages and not Chinese wages, you'll have to win as well.

It is quite clear that regardless what you now do - you won´t be guaranteed CL if you are playing in the PL.

If you are a young player wanting to play in the CL - who do you sign for right now? Chelsea aside it is basically a five way coin toss between the others. So that is hardly an argument for future signings.

 

[Blender]

It is quite clear that regardless what you now do - you won´t be guaranteed CL if you are playing in the PL.

If you are a young player wanting to play in the CL - who do you sign for right now? Chelsea aside it is basically a five way coin toss between the others. So that is hardly an argument for future signings.

Sure, but this is where the prestige factors in. Tottenham is probably level with Liverpool at this point as far as prestige, but is looking better in the long term as far as finances. They are both respected but aren't considered a legitimate contender because they haven't won anything recently. If you're looking at a choice between Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham, and Liverpool and all are offering about the same wages, if you care about winning you're likely to go to the clubs that already have winners playing for them.

I'm not saying Tottenham won't get there, their future is looking fantastic, but it's not just about money. They need to take this money, spend it wisely, and get results with it. Once they have proven results and money, they will not only retain their top players more consistently, but also attract other top players.