Preferred Outcome for the Pens Pick
- Thread starter Selachimorpha
- Start date
If the Pens have 11th overall pick, can they decide to give that pick to us this year and keep their 2025's?
- Jun 23, 2020
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Pittsburgh finishes #22 overall, wins the #1 lottery, Sharks are pushed back and either win the #2 lottery or a team in the very bottom of the lottery wins the #2 pick.
If you mean trading, I think the answer is no.
Pit's decision to keep their pick or not comes after the lottery itself. So if they win the lottery, they'll keep theirs that is certain.
Imo, even if one of those UFA's are in play, they would at best replace what they lost with Guentzel who was not enough on his own to make them a playoff team so they clearly need more than that. I also sincerely doubt that they are actually in play for the Pens. They may have the space and the desire but I think most players in that position are going to look at Pittsburgh and see their window closing in the next two years if it isn't already closed with a missed playoffs already here for them. I think their top ten pick could net them a Chychrun or Buchnevich but they need both and another top nine option which they will try to get an answer for but will not be the only team after these sorts of players.
It's not as if Pittsburgh didn't already heavily invest in their team with the intent to make the playoffs. They added Erik Karlsson and Reilly Smith last offseason and it didn't get them where they wanted to go. These sorts of adds are going to likely be less of an impact to replace a critical piece they traded at the deadline. I think the most likely outcome is Pittsburgh being a mostly similar team to what they are now. A team outside the playoffs but probably competing for it most of the year. The odds of them making the playoffs next year don't seem very good especially when you look what's around them. The Devils are also outside the playoff picture but are probably just a legitimate starting goalie away from being a playoff team. I could see a team like Philadelphia and Washington dropping out of the playoffs but a team like New Jersey and Detroit or Buffalo in better positions to push for the playoffs than Pittsburgh.
At the end of the day to me, it is not at all likely that Pittsburgh makes the playoffs next year given what will likely be available to them.
If the Pens have the 11th pick after the lottery, that pick belongs to the Sharks.
I completely agree. Supposedly next year’s draft is FW heavy and this year there are 6 top 10 D. If we don’t get Celebrini we still get our pick of the best D prospects at 2 or 3. If we get Celebrini it would fill a gigantic hole to pick up one of those D at 11 or 12.
Agreed, if the Pens finished 11th or 12th, the assumption would be that 6 of the top 12 selections would be forwards. That would leave us with the 5th or 6th best Dman on the board. Would love to get Buium, but don’t see him dropping that far. If we were able to get Center #1, trying not to jinx things, I’d either go with top 6 D, but if the 6th D were off the board, Helenius might be there at 11 or 12 and have two more high end centers in the mix. Based on what I’ve read, Center #1 is his own tier, then the next 11 players are arguably tier 2 before the next tier drop at pick 13.
- Jun 23, 2020
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#22 is in the bottom sixteen and thus eligible for the lottery, but because I forgot about the date the Penguins decide which pick to give us, it's irrelevant anyway.
Stewie Griffin
What the deuce
If PIT finishes 8-10th they will draft in with that pick. No team will ever (especially with all timers like Crosby, Malkin, etc.) expect to be worse the next year. If we get a pick 11-14 then we're looking at Parekh, Buium, Eiserman, Iginla, Yakemchuk, or Helenius with that pick.
I think Celebrini, Demidov, Levshunov, Dickinson, Silayev, Catton, and Lindstrom are locks for top 8ish.
I think Celebrini, Demidov, Levshunov, Dickinson, Silayev, Catton, and Lindstrom are locks for top 8ish.
tiburon12
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- Jul 18, 2009
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I think barring some miracle Dubasing in the offseason there is 0 chance the Pens are better than they are this year.
On top of all of their top players being older and less effective, this is a team that has 7 team shutouts this season, which is most in the league and an anomaly.
Now whether that means they finish worse in the standings or not is a different story. But I see the top 6 of the East unfolding similarly, and 2 of Ottawa Detroit NJ and Buffalo making it too, so where does that leave Pitt?
That's why I want them to win the lottery for #2. Then they are forced to take a guy who wont help next year, can't use that pick to trade for immediate help, and will likely then surrender a high pick to us.
On top of all of their top players being older and less effective, this is a team that has 7 team shutouts this season, which is most in the league and an anomaly.
Now whether that means they finish worse in the standings or not is a different story. But I see the top 6 of the East unfolding similarly, and 2 of Ottawa Detroit NJ and Buffalo making it too, so where does that leave Pitt?
That's why I want them to win the lottery for #2. Then they are forced to take a guy who wont help next year, can't use that pick to trade for immediate help, and will likely then surrender a high pick to us.
Stewie Griffin
What the deuce
Whether they pick 2, 8, 9, or 10 they won't be getting a player that helps right away...it doesn't matter where they are in the top 10...they will make that selection. If they improve their depth, it's not that hard to imagine them giving us a 15-20 pick next year.
tiburon12
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if they land at 8-10 they at least could use it as a trade piece to get immediately better though. At 2 they would have to draft.
Taking away a giant asset (this year's first) makes improving their depth a much harder task. And on top of that, they need to do more than just that. I don't see their top end or their goaltending being as good as this year
jMoneyBrah
Registered User
Yes their depth, but also the ~90pts Guentzel was pacing to provide is a pretty conspicuous hole. It’s not that they can’t bring him back, or sign or trade for player(s) to replace that production. It’s that they have to do that, counter balance another year of wear on their core, and improve their depth just to START improving on this season. That’s also counting on Crosby, Malkin, Karlsson, and Letang replicating the fact they all played every game this season (not exactly a group known for their iron-man streaks).
For funsies I’ve been tinkering with Capfriendly rosters to see if there is some realistic combo of UFA signings and trades they could swing to materially improve their results; and while I’d hardly tout my league wide knowledge of players and team needs, I didn’t find any dead obvious solutions that resulted in an overall better roster.
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CaptainShark
Registered User
Which really good UFA would consider signing with the Pens after what just transpired?
They took their shot with EK65 and for me that was the last bullet for that core and it missed.
Smart thing to do would be to go scorched earth as there is no path back to glory with this core. But AFAIK that won’t fly with their ownership, so Pens-Fans are in for the Sharks special (19/20 - 21/22) before ownership will come around on the idea of a full scale rebuilt.
They took their shot with EK65 and for me that was the last bullet for that core and it missed.
Smart thing to do would be to go scorched earth as there is no path back to glory with this core. But AFAIK that won’t fly with their ownership, so Pens-Fans are in for the Sharks special (19/20 - 21/22) before ownership will come around on the idea of a full scale rebuilt.
I think anyone that's willing to accept four years or less on term would at least consider Pittsburgh given that it's still playing with the likes of Crosby, Malkin, and Karlsson. If Stamkos makes it to free agency, it makes some sense as his term demands are probably in that range. After that, I think there isn't anybody in the free agent market that would consider the Pens that would compensate for what they lost moving Guentzel. I think their most likely result next year is similar to this one regardless of whether they go all-in or not just because the options likely aren't there.
OrrNumber4
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1) Pittsburgh has that special factor; it attracts players.
2) It's always dangerous discounting Crosby and Malkin. A veteran player having a major resurgence in his game is plausible; see Pavelski/Thornton, Joe.
3) Karlsson might thrive in the new system.
Now, being fair, Letang seems cooked, and their depth looks awful...
coooldude
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Big night for the Pens pick. Seattle and Calgary host strong teams, Pittsburgh could win away at CBJ. right now Moneypuck predicts PIT to finish exactly 10th worst, but BUF/CGY/SEA/NJD still all within 2 points. Probably going to come down to the wire.
StanleyCup2035
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- Oct 1, 2017
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I hope Pens beat NJ tonight to improve our chances of getting their #1 this year and also would make NJ 2nd rounder a spot or two better
Yes but the Pens need to lose some games soon. I’m concerned they could sneak into the playoffs or drop that pick to 15 which puts one of the top 6 D out of play.
coooldude
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Moneypuck projects them to finish 12th worst and gives them an 8.2% chance at the playoffs. Granted it was 2% a few games ago, still looking solid that we get that pick unless they win the lottery.
STL Shark
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- Mar 6, 2013
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Pittsburgh winning the lottery at #12 is about the only way that I would be happy about their pick going to 2025 right now (because it guarantees us 1st overall). Otherwise, I really want that pick now so that whoever is drafted is a full year closer to the NHL and we have a guarantee of a top 12 pick rather than the risk of that pick being in the 20's.
coooldude
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This is also generally how I feel, although I'll take what comes. Have no choice either way.
