Preferred Outcome for the Pens Pick

Of the two outcomes, which Pens-dependent outcome do you prefer?

  • Sharks draft between 11-15 with the Pens 2024 1st round pick

    Votes: 54 46.2%
  • Sharks roll into 2025 with the Pens unprotected pick.

    Votes: 63 53.8%

  • Total voters
    117

mogambomoroo

Registered User
Oct 12, 2020
1,332
2,218
I see Pittsburgh being the opposite of last year and waking up just in the right time, making the playoffs unfortunately. They will not have ton of success in the playoffs, but they just have the momentum right now to make it. Hopefully I'm wrong.
 

dmcccdmn

Registered User
Dec 10, 2005
1,250
329
UC Davis
I see Pittsburgh being the opposite of last year and waking up just in the right time, making the playoffs unfortunately. They will not have ton of success in the playoffs, but they just have the momentum right now to make it. Hopefully I'm wrong.

If it wasn't for this comment, I wouldn't have realized just how close PIT is to making the playoffs. Kinda crazy how just 3 points fewer and we can't get their pick, and just 3 more points and they're in the playoffs.
 
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mogambomoroo

Registered User
Oct 12, 2020
1,332
2,218
If it wasn't for this comment, I wouldn't have realized just how close PIT is to making the playoffs. Kinda crazy how just 3 points fewer and we can't get their pick, and just 3 more points and they're in the playoffs.
It's going to be crazy couple of weeks ahead. From getting possible 2025 unprotected to getting a decent prospect in 11-16 area to possibly having a 17-32 pick :laugh:
We've been quite lucky Pittsburgh has been on that spot for that long period of time, their next game is against Capitals and it will be a huge one.
 
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Mr Fahrenheit

Valar Morghulis
Oct 9, 2009
7,796
3,293
Calgary playing us twice can get them back in the race of passing Pittsburgh, Seattle also plays us, the Ducks and the Yotes

Buffalo and New Jersey look real iffy in passing the Pens. Devils just had to blow a 3-1 3rd period lead and give up 5 goals in the 3rd to them...guess Kahkonnen gave them our secret
 

tiburon12

Registered User
Jul 18, 2009
4,680
4,526
If it wasn't for this comment, I wouldn't have realized just how close PIT is to making the playoffs. Kinda crazy how just 3 points fewer and we can't get their pick, and just 3 more points and they're in the playoffs.
no one wants to make the playoffs in the east lol
 
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STL Shark

Registered User
Mar 6, 2013
4,001
4,671
I see Pittsburgh being the opposite of last year and waking up just in the right time, making the playoffs unfortunately. They will not have ton of success in the playoffs, but they just have the momentum right now to make it. Hopefully I'm wrong.
Their schedule is pretty tough, but also means that they control their destiny. @ Washington, Tampa, @ Toronto, Detroit, Boston, Nashville, @ Islanders.

So their entire schedule are playoff teams or teams on the playoff bubble with them. So could be good or bad depending how you want to look at it. Odds are still heavily in favor of that pick being in the 11-13 range as they would have to jump 3 teams in the standings in the final week and a half of the season.

That said, they still have a lot of elite talent and can make a run as much as anyone else. This is why I have so staunchly been on get the pick now rather than let generational talents like Crosby, Malkin, Karlsson, etc. get another kick at the can after a well rested summer and a potential "Last Dance" season for Crosby where they go all in.
 
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coooldude

Registered User
Jul 25, 2007
3,306
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The cool thing about Moneypuck is that it takes everyone's strength of schedule, recent play, and home/away probability splits and projects the rest of the season. So all these good factors people are mentioning are taken into consideration.

With that in mind, Moneypuck is still projecting the Pens to finish 12th worst and miss the playoffs, BUT they have a 15.1% chance of making it as of now. NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2024 Playoff & Cup Odds

You can read about how they project in "about".

This model is a roll up of pretty deep and sophisticated statistics. Nobody can know the future of course, but it's a great site. Here's the breakdown of the upcoming PIT/WSH game. Without taking into consideration any other game until then, a PIT win in regulation takes them to 23.8% to make the playoffs and a loss takes them to 5.9%. the caps, meanwhile, have an even bigger swing. They're 68.7% to make the playoffs with a win and 39% with a loss.

 

Stewie Griffin

What the deuce
May 9, 2019
5,002
7,964
Canada
Getting Parekh/Buium/Yakemchuk/Eiserman at 11-14 is much better than risking a ~20th overall pick next year.

Next year looks strong at the very top...but Pittsburgh won't be there. If anything they'll be hovering around 10th overall just like this year...if not being a better team.

I think everyone is just salivating at the fact we could get a Stutzle/Byram like situation.
 

Barrie22

Shark fan in hiding
Aug 11, 2009
24,982
6,207
ontario
Getting Parekh/Buium/Yakemchuk/Eiserman at 11-14 is much better than risking a ~20th overall pick next year.

Next year looks strong at the very top...but Pittsburgh won't be there. If anything they'll be hovering around 10th overall just like this year...if not being a better team.

I think everyone is just salivating at the fact we could get a Stutzle/Byram like situation.
Until someone can come up with a legit reason the pens will be better next season, then there is more of a chance that they fall off even more.

They have 12 mil in cap space right now. 15 players signed. Need 3-4 forwards, 2-3 defensemen, and a backup goalie.

The option to gain cap space being tossed around here is trading Reilly Smith (8 team no trade list). And every other person worth trading to gain cap space, all have NTC/NMC.

And then every other main contributor on the team will be a year older and all on the wrong side of there 30's.
 
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Stewie Griffin

What the deuce
May 9, 2019
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Until someone can come up with a legit reason the pens will be better next season, then there is more of a chance that they fall off even more.

They have 12 mil in cap space right now. 15 players signed. Need 3-4 forwards, 2-3 defensemen, and a backup goalie.

The option to gain cap space being tossed around here is trading Reilly Smith (8 team no trade list). And every other person worth trading to gain cap space, all have NTC/NMC.

And then every other main contributor on the team will be a year older and all on the wrong side of there 30's.
They wouldn't have a 1st round pick and have Sidney Crosby on their roster. There is no scenario at all where management doesn't do everything they possibly can to improve the team. They can bring up some young guys and acquire cheap bottom-6 depth. No one is expecting them to become a stanley cup contender, but they could easily end up a mid standings team/playoff hopeful.
 

Barrie22

Shark fan in hiding
Aug 11, 2009
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They wouldn't have a 1st round pick and have Sidney Crosby on their roster. There is no scenario at all where management doesn't do everything they possibly can to improve the team. They can bring up some young guys and acquire cheap bottom-6 depth. No one is expecting them to become a stanley cup contender, but they could easily end up a mid standings team/playoff hopeful.
So they need to pull off a miracle and hope that they can get bargain players to exceed expectations at every position and that none of there star players take a step back while in there late 30's? Sounds like a very reasonable plan. One that has been proven over and over again just doesn't work. Case in point being the San Jose Sharks for the past 4 years.
 

Stewie Griffin

What the deuce
May 9, 2019
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So they need to pull off a miracle and hope that they can get bargain players to exceed expectations at every position and that none of there star players take a step back while in there late 30's? Sounds like a very reasonable plan. One that has been proven over and over again just doesn't work. Case in point being the San Jose Sharks for the past 4 years.
With 12M it's not that unrealistic to acquire depth players and a back up goalie. Like I said, I'm not saying they're going to compete for the stanley cup but becoming a mid level team that drafts 15-20th overall isn't that far off.
 

Barrie22

Shark fan in hiding
Aug 11, 2009
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With 12M it's not that unrealistic to acquire depth players and a back up goalie. Like I said, I'm not saying they're going to compete for the stanley cup but becoming a mid level team that drafts 15-20th overall isn't that far off.
When you need 7 players just to be at 12/6/2 on the every day roster, yes it is very difficult. Especially if you want quality depth which is what the team will need to stay out of the bottom half of the league.
 
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Stewie Griffin

What the deuce
May 9, 2019
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When you need 7 players just to be at 12/6/2 on the every day roster, yes it is very difficult. Especially if you want quality depth which is what the team will need to stay out of the bottom half of the league.
Okay so trade/buyout one of Eller/Bunting/Smith and now you're looking at 15-20M...what do you think they're going to do this offseason? Just sit around and do nothing? Trade away assets and accept they're going to suck?
 

Pinkfloyd

Registered User
Oct 29, 2006
70,457
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BuT tHeY wIlL bE a LoTtErY tEaM nExT yEaR bEcAuSe GuYs ArE oLdEr.
A four win in five game stretch at the tail end of the season doesn't change the accuracy of those arguments nor make you correct in any fashion. This just makes you more difficult to converse with unnecessarily.
 
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Barrie22

Shark fan in hiding
Aug 11, 2009
24,982
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Okay so trade/buyout one of Eller/Bunting/Smith and now you're looking at 15-20M...what do you think they're going to do this offseason? Just sit around and do nothing? Trade away assets and accept they're going to suck?
They are going to try like Wilson kept trying, but that trying comes with praying for rainbow colored unicorns to be real and for all players to punch above there pay grades. I don't doubt the team is going to try, but there is just no room or flexibility for them to improve enough.
 
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Stewie Griffin

What the deuce
May 9, 2019
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They are going to try like Wilson kept trying, but that trying comes with praying for rainbow colored unicorns to be real and for all players to punch above there pay grades. I don't doubt the team is going to try, but there is just no room or flexibility for them to improve enough.
They're only 3 points out of the playoffs, it's not like they need an entire new team to get closer. For all the reasons they could decline next year...Washington, Philly, and New York (islanders) could all also regress. That's their division alone.

If you add a few 3M players to get depth scoring...they could finish a little better.
 

coooldude

Registered User
Jul 25, 2007
3,306
2,549
It's silly for any of us to get heated about this question -- the Sharks have literally no control over it let alone any of us.

The objective reality is that an unprotected pick could become #1OA or #32OA.
A reasonable expectation is that the Pens could finish let's say as bad as 6OA, or they could squeak into the playoffs next year (they should have been a playoff team this year with better PP).

The mean expected result is probably something like 11-15th worst, which is where they are sitting right now. There are great arguments for why they might collapse, as well as great arguments for why they might squeak into the playoffs. The arguments that they will be a bottom 5 team or a top 10 team are a lot more tenuous.

As of right now, I want to guarantee that it's a 11-13 pick versus taking whatever comes next year, but it's really a matter of risk preference and your beliefs about the likelihood of their outcome.

None of this should pit poster vs. poster.
 

Pinkfloyd

Registered User
Oct 29, 2006
70,457
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They're only 3 points out of the playoffs, it's not like they need an entire new team to get closer. For all the reasons they could decline next year...Washington, Philly, and New York (islanders) could all also regress. That's their division alone.

If you add a few 3M players to get depth scoring...they could finish a little better.
They don't need an entirely new team but they do need to replace Guentzel and add on top of that to position themselves better for a playoff push next year. The adds are doable but the options are not unlimited in terms of what can address those spots. There are only so many Guentzel-type wingers available in an offseason and there are only so many top four defensemen available. These players could also choose to play with their division rivals because in the case of say Washington or Philadelphia, they have more flexibility to bring them in than Pittsburgh does, imo.

My preference will be 2025 mostly because I feel that draft is likely to turn out better than this one so the odds of getting a better player for the rebuild seem to favor 2025 over 2024.
 
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landshark

They'll paint the donkey teal if you pay.
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Mar 15, 2003
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Poster versus poster, spilling letters on the board
posting about pittsburgh, draft picks we want to horde... 🎶


SharkDave.gif
 

Roasted Nuts

Registered User
Feb 6, 2018
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Getting this years pick would be a more guaranteed high pick than next years. Who wants to bet against a hungry Crosby, Malkin and Karlsson possibly in their last year in the NHL?
 
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Jargon

Registered User
Apr 12, 2011
5,617
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Venice, California
I think this year’s draft is sort of interesting in that there are actually a lot of really seemingly high end prospects that are falling in the 10-15 range because of some specific flaws. If our scouting team does a good job and picks the right kid, it could pay off in a huge way.
 

STL Shark

Registered User
Mar 6, 2013
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A four win in five game stretch at the tail end of the season doesn't change the accuracy of those arguments nor make you correct in any fashion. This just makes you more difficult to converse with unnecessarily.
As you choose to engage with this post rather than the one below it that actually has thought and reason....
 

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