Preferred Outcome for the Pens Pick

[LilLeeroy]

The Penguins just pulled a Sharks (blowing up a 4-0 lead). God they’re bad. I think those wishing for next year’s pick are gonna get their wish.

I'm definitely expecting a 2012 Warriors type situation. They retain their pick by the skin of their teeth and then go on nice little playoff run.

 

[ThorNton Apologist]

I'm definitely expecting a 2012 Warriors type situation. They retain their pick by the skin of their teeth and then go on nice little playoff run.

That would be so Sharks luck but I just don’t see it. How can Dubas legitimately improve that team with the assets and cap space they have…

 

[LilLeeroy]

That would be so Sharks luck but I just don’t see it. How can Dubas legitimately improve that team with the assets and cap space they have…

I agree definitely a bit of a difference between Bob Myers/Steph Curry and a Dubas+Doug Wilson brain trust. Plus Letang and Malkin look totally cooked.

They will have some cap space and assets to trade for some talent at least.

 

[sharski]

That would be so Sharks luck but I just don’t see it. How can Dubas legitimately improve that team with the assets and cap space they have…

Pens will trade Malkin to Vegas for Hertl

Hertl will go beast mode and lead the pens to a cup

Malkin will have a resurgence and lead Vegas to a cup

I h8 myself

 

[CaptainShark]

Let’s find out what Pens-fans have to say:

Click here…

 

[karltonian]

Many here said DeBoer was the problem. Many said just let Karlsson play how he wants and he will lead us to a great season. Neither were true. The Pens have an aging core and no depth. One key injury and they could be bottom 5 in the league. I’m fine getting the unprotected 2025 1st.

If he had the season he did last year with the team Deboer had, we WOULD have had a great season.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

According to Pashelka, the Pens would have 72 hours after the lottery to transfer the pick to the Sharks if they’re in the top ten.

 

[coooldude]

According to Pashelka, the Pens would have 72 hours after the lottery to transfer the pick to the Sharks if they’re in the top ten.

This is also what The Athletic said, and Grier said 24h, so I suspect the journalists are right but he's basically right.

 

[tiburon12]

I've decided the most ideal outcome would be that we get the #1 and Pitt, wherever they finish, wins the #2 lottery.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

I want that unprotected 1st next year. Having potentially two lottery picks in the top 5 would be insane..

 

[STL Shark]

That would be so Sharks luck but I just don’t see it. How can Dubas legitimately improve that team with the assets and cap space they have…

Flip Smith and a 2nd to SJ for Chmelevski to free up $5M (could be anyone, but I am being selfish and want it all). Leaves them with $18M to fill in a top line wing, 3rd pairing D, bottom 6 wing, and backup goalie.

They could go re-sign Guentzel for $8.5M, get a cheap backup goalie, and cheap internal bottom 6 wing and still have $7M for a 3rd pairing RD and any upgrades they want to make elsewhere in the lineup (like 3C).

Expecting them to be worse than this year just doesn't seem plausible given they're going to be shedding some deadweight money in Carter/Smith and can reasonably expect better performances from a guy like Rakell. Guys will take less on a short term deal to play with them for what could be Crosby's last dance and they'll be back in the playoff mix next year pretty easily.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Flip Smith and a 2nd to SJ for Chmelevski to free up $5M (could be anyone, but I am being selfish and want it all). Leaves them with $18M to fill in a top line wing, 3rd pairing D, bottom 6 wing, and backup goalie.

They could go re-sign Guentzel for $8.5M, get a cheap backup goalie, and cheap internal bottom 6 wing and still have $7M for a 3rd pairing RD and any upgrades they want to make elsewhere in the lineup (like 3C).

Expecting them to be worse than this year just doesn't seem plausible given they're going to be shedding some deadweight money in Carter/Smith and can reasonably expect better performances from a guy like Rakell. Guys will take less on a short term deal to play with them for what could be Crosby's last dance and they'll be back in the playoff mix next year pretty easily.

I agree. Also not many teams pick top 5 unless they are not trying to build a playoff roster at all. If Pit doesn’t have their 1st next season they have no incentive to tank and will do everything they can to make the playoffs.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

This is also what The Athletic said, and Grier said 24h, so I suspect the journalists are right but he's basically right.

I think that was more like a threat


"You have 24 hours to decide..." *hangs up*

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I agree. Also not many teams pick top 5 unless they are not trying to build a playoff roster at all. If Pit doesn’t have their 1st next season they have no incentive to tank and will do everything they can to make the playoffs.

Sure they will do everything they can. The issue with Pittsburgh is that they can't really do all that much. Looking at Smith as dead weight with 34 points in 65 games when they need depth is unlikely to be a good answer for them. They need to replace Guentzel, get another top nine caliber forward, and get a top four caliber defenseman to take some of the burden off the top four there that's doing all the heavy lifting for them. Plus, a lot of these guys have trade protections so it's not easy finding dump recipients on their list of acceptable teams. On top of that, they tried a lot of different cheap answers to try and address depth concerns and they aren't working out all that well.

If Pittsburgh lands in the top ten, I can't imagine them choosing to send that pick to the Sharks so I expect them to go all out next year in Crosby's last year contractually. I just don't see a road to success for them that gets them back in the playoffs. If Guentzel doesn't even want to come back they are in huge trouble.

 

[cheechoo]

The more I meander on this the more I lean 2025, but the discourse around here for the pick at #11 would be super fun to take part of. So some selfish interest of that on my part.

I keep looking at the names on tankathon in that 8-13 region and they're all so good with intriguing upside.

 

[dmcccdmn]

My worst fear when it comes to the PIT's pick is they keep it this year and trade it for a good veteran to make a push next year. That's what teams usually do with aging generational talents that they can't trade away to rebuild. So their only option is to make the last ditch effort to maximize Crosby's and Malkin's last few years.

It might still backfire and their new players might underperform and Crosby/Malkin age faster than anticipate. PIT looks just like the Sharks right before things imploded. It's true that it's out of our hands. Top-10 unprotected on an aging team is juicy though, so that's what I'm rooting for.

 

[dmcccdmn]

The more I meander on this the more I lean 2025, but the discourse around here for the pick at #11 would be super fun to take part of. So some selfish interest of that on my part.

I keep looking at the names on tankathon in that 8-13 region and they're all so good with intriguing upside.

The question is, how are next year's draft 10-15 region compare to this year's #11? I heard next year's draft is deep so even if PIT improves next year, it'll be a wash or better if it's next year.

 

[cheechoo]

The question is, how are next year's draft 10-15 region compare to this year's #11? I heard next year's draft is deep so even if PIT improves next year, it'll be a wash or better if it's next year.

It's really hard to say. I think in general the class a year away always seems to have a sheen about it due to not being under the same microscope as the current prospects queing up to get selected.

And then I'm going to directly contradict myself.

I think 2025 has better top end talent than 2024 and funnily enough 2026 seems like the 2023 class redux.

There's a chance that Viggo Björck and especially Gavin McKenna are the two best prospects that will be selected in the next three years, and they're both in the class of 2026.

But I mean at the end of the day, we need to build a roster and none of the teams that won recently did so without hitting on not only their picks at the top of the draft, but getting impact players in the teens and in the middle rounds too.

 

[STL Shark]

Sure they will do everything they can. The issue with Pittsburgh is that they can't really do all that much. Looking at Smith as dead weight with 34 points in 65 games when they need depth is unlikely to be a good answer for them. They need to replace Guentzel, get another top nine caliber forward, and get a top four caliber defenseman to take some of the burden off the top four there that's doing all the heavy lifting for them. Plus, a lot of these guys have trade protections so it's not easy finding dump recipients on their list of acceptable teams. On top of that, they tried a lot of different cheap answers to try and address depth concerns and they aren't working out all that well.

If Pittsburgh lands in the top ten, I can't imagine them choosing to send that pick to the Sharks so I expect them to go all out next year in Crosby's last year contractually. I just don't see a road to success for them that gets them back in the playoffs. If Guentzel doesn't even want to come back they are in huge trouble.

Guentzel, Reinhart, Marchessault, etc. are all in play for them as UFAs. They can also shop in a lower market and target a Duclair or equivalent as well. If they keep the pick this year and it's 8th or 9th, there's a good chance they're moving it for immediate help for Crosby's final year under contract rather than investing it into a draft pick that won't contribute for 3 years when their core is shot.

They could go get a Chychrun (or equivalent) with their first rounder and use cap space to sign a top line winger and be in great shape heading into 2024-25 as they hand over the 25th overall pick to us. Could also use it to trade for a Buchnevich and use their cap space to sign one of the veteran D-Men on the market this offseason.

Outside of the Pittsburgh pick landing inside the top 5, there is a very good chance they're not making the pick this year and will instead be trading it for immediate help. So for that reason, I would rather get it at 11th or 12th this year than get it next year when it's likely in the 20's.

 

[TheBeard]

With Crosby and Malkin being 38, EK and Letang being another year older and no Guentzel for the season I can’t see Pittsburgh finishing any better than 12th or 13th worst even if they retool. The team’s issue is defense and depth. Neither will be addressed by Dubas because in ten years he’s never shown enough to care.

 

[SjMilhouse]

We are a cursed franchise so whatever we hope for, the worst outcome will happen. If we get the pick this year, they end up with a top 3 next year. If we get next year's pick, it ends up 20+.

It's the same with the pick this year. If we get last place, Chicago wins the lottery. If we get 2nd worst, Chicago would get 1st overall. It's Schrodinger's pick, except the outcome is predetermined to be the worst of the two outcomes.

There is no hope, only pain and disappointment

 

[Juxtaposer]

The question is, how are next year's draft 10-15 region compare to this year's #11? I heard next year's draft is deep so even if PIT improves next year, it'll be a wash or better if it's next year.

I don’t think anyone can make a fair assessment of a draft class a year out. A year ago, we weren’t talking about Lindstrom, Silayev, Parekh, Buium, Iginla, or Yakemchuk as potential top-10 picks, and Cole Eiserman was challenging Celebrini for 1st overall. So much can change, I don’t think it’s viable strategy to base the “preference” on which draft is stronger in theory a year out. Yes, if the Pens pick next year were to be top-5, I’d prefer it. But it’s absolutely impossible to say if 15th overall next year will be better than 11th overall this year.

It’s also impossible to predict how the Pens will look next season. Personally, I think there is absolute an easy way for the Pens to improve (firing the coach, getting a better supporting top-6 winger than Smith, reducing Letang’s minutes, etc.). I would be surprised if the Pens built a team that would give us a top-5 pick next year. Of course, anything can happen, see the 2020 Sharks—if Crosby gets hurt for any length of time, they’re done. I totally understand how tempting that 2025 unprotected pick feels, and if it’s what we end up with I’ll be excited about it too.

But the only thing I know for sure is that there are some 7th-8th overall caliber prospects who will be available at 11th overall this year, in my opinion. And a year of extra development has value as well.

 

[one2gamble]

I think the Pens should have to decide before the Lottery!

 

[coooldude]

I don’t think anyone can make a fair assessment of a draft class a year out. A year ago, we weren’t talking about Lindstrom, Silayev, Parekh, Buium, Iginla, or Yakemchuk as potential top-10 picks, and Cole Eiserman was challenging Celebrini for 1st overall. So much can change, I don’t think it’s viable strategy to base the “preference” on which draft is stronger in theory a year out. Yes, if the Pens pick next year were to be top-5, I’d prefer it. But it’s absolutely impossible to say if 15th overall next year will be better than 11th overall this year.

It’s also impossible to predict how the Pens will look next season. Personally, I think there is absolute an easy way for the Pens to improve (firing the coach, getting a better supporting top-6 winger than Smith, reducing Letang’s minutes, etc.). I would be surprised if the Pens built a team that would give us a top-5 pick next year. Of course, anything can happen, see the 2020 Sharks—if Crosby gets hurt for any length of time, they’re done. I totally understand how tempting that 2025 unprotected pick feels, and if it’s what we end up with I’ll be excited about it too.

But the only thing I know for sure is that there are some 7th-8th overall caliber prospects who will be available at 11th overall this year, in my opinion. And a year of extra development has value as well.

On top of all this which I 100% agree with, I also think there's value in picking twice in the top 12 rather than only picking once in the top 3 and again a whole year later anywhere from 5-20. Particularly with the dynamics of the top 10 (which you mentioned) you can also make a coherent set of picks that make sense together and have, for example, a moderating risk profile. Rather than just one high quality dart throw each year.

I think the pens *could* be a bubble team next year, or they *could* collapse, or they *could* make a solid run into the playoffs based on any number of arguments smart posters have just made. So the mean is probably no better than 11th, and therefore I want the pick sooner and I want to be able to make two picks that make sense, as well as trying to take advantage of this weird "large 2nd tier" and "large group of high end D" dynamic. Because of the big 2nd tier, as you said, there are like 10 4-8OA caliber picks... so it's scary at 2-4 but it's exciting at 8-12.

 

[Juxtaposer]

On top of all this which I 100% agree with, I also think there's value in picking twice in the top 12 rather than only picking once in the top 3 and again a whole year later anywhere from 5-20. Particularly with the dynamics of the top 10 (which you mentioned) you can also make a coherent set of picks that make sense together and have, for example, a moderating risk profile. Rather than just one high quality dart throw each year.

I think the pens *could* be a bubble team next year, or they *could* collapse, or they *could* make a solid run into the playoffs based on any number of arguments smart posters have just made. So the mean is probably no better than 11th, and therefore I want the pick sooner and I want to be able to make two picks that make sense, as well as trying to take advantage of this weird "large 2nd tier" and "large group of high end D" dynamic. Because of the big 2nd tier, as you said, there are like 10 4-8OA caliber picks... so it's scary at 2-4 but it's exciting at 8-12.

Also, my opinion will probably change if we get 1st vs. if we drop to 2nd or 3rd. If we get 1st then I’ll definitely prefer to have this year’s pick (prospect will be closer to helping Celebrini), but if we drop, then I might prefer next year’s pick because whoever we get at 2nd/3rd overall this year is at least a year away from NHL ready, so the whole rebuild timeline is pushed back a year anyway.