Prediction for this year - Playoffs or no Playoffs?

[dinodebino]

Not even close. Same team. This organisation falls in love with players instead of seeing them as assets. Major issue there. Plus, the coach's obsession with vets makes it hard for this team to progress over the course of a season.

 

[teamfirst]

?
sure, keep telling yourself that there are only 30 goalies in the NHL

your delusion about a save % under 900 being AHL level unfortunately doesn't have any basis in the NHL statistical realities.

2018‑2019 NHL Goalie Stats

might be worth actually looking stuff up before posting nonsense.

Ok he played 66 games 2nd to Dubnick.....cool but, we are talking about his performance in oct and november, dont understand why you put a link with his full season stats, i already told you that i tought he was VERY good the rest of the season

He had a .898 sav% up until dec 1st last season, thats what we where talking about, you dont agree with me on the fact that CP was crap during that period......fine with me

 

[PaulD]

Atlantic Division: X = playoffs
Lightning_X
Bruins_X
Leafs_X
Panthers_X
Canadiens
Sabres
Red Wings
Senators

Metropolitan Division: X = playoffs
Islanders_X
Capitols_X
Devils_X
Rangers_X
Penguins
Hurricanes
Flyers
------------------------------------
As per above, the Lightning, Bruins and Leafs are shoo-ins. The Islanders, Capitols and Devils have more talent than the Habs. The only uncertainty is whether even with Panarin and Kaapo, can the Rangers edge out the Habs for the 8th playoff berth?

Due to the hiring of Coach Q, the signing of Goalie Bob, and the further development of Huberdeau and Barkov, the Panthers should finish ahead of the Habs.

Throw the Hurricanes and Panthers in with Caps, Islanders and Devils. All better than the Habs and will finish above them.

 

[Roadhouse]

No playoffs. The highlight reels from the youngsters will be fun to watch though.
That's all we got 'til they all enter their prime, including the ones not here yet (mainly the Tsar, Caufield & Ylonen).

It's cliché, but let's wait some more before hoping for a deep run. Super lame given the GM's track record, I know. But again, that's all we've got. Nobody here knows Molson personally.

 

[ZUKI]

Why is it that every time that a poll should just be Yes or No, someone chickens out of it and complicates the options up to a point where no one is even interested in the results?

bang !

 

[Bring Bak Damphousse]

Managed to miss last year even with a number of players having career years, could be a long season. But a low finish and high pick could be for the best.

 

[ZUKI]

Managed to miss last year even with a number of players having career years, could be a long season. But a low finish and high pick could be for the best.

I don't get the " career years "
That team is a very young one .A lot of players are too young to play their full potential . Of course they had career years but they will again next few years

 

[Kriss E]

You said “very very sheltered” last time. Which is it? Heavily would suggest a burden. In no way shape or form was Coconut’s first pro campaign a burden to our franchise. A poster performed an analytic on Coconut’s defensive statistics.. Check it out sometime.

Yes...very very=heavily....same crap. No, it doesn't ''suggest'' a burden. Rookies are pretty much always sheltered. Even a guy like Crosby wasn't getting defensive minutes as a rookie. It's just plain normal.
I was responding to your claim KK last year was as good as Kopitar defensively, which is ridiculous as he played versus much weaker opponents.
I have seen his analytics, they're good and they also show he was sheltered, which again is normal.
All this to say no, KK was not ready to be a #1 center last year let alone be as good as a very solid and proven one like Kopitar. KK probably isn't even ready for that role this year still.

 

[cphabs]

Yes...very very=heavily....same crap. No, it doesn't ''suggest'' a burden. Rookies are pretty much always sheltered. Even a guy like Crosby wasn't getting defensive minutes as a rookie. It's just plain normal.
I was responding to your claim KK last year was as good as Kopitar defensively, which is ridiculous as he played versus much weaker opponents.
I have seen his analytics, they're good and they also show he was sheltered, which again is normal.
All this to say no, KK was not ready to be a #1 center last year let alone be as good as a very solid and proven one like Kopitar. KK probably isn't even ready for that role this year still.

Are you seriously adding Crosby to this debate? I’ll see your Crosby an ante a.... Scott Sevens!
We won’t know till we try! He is also at the mercy of our organization’s incessant efforts to keep Danault and Drouin on a top pairing. I’ve been wrong before so don’t take this too seriously.

 

[Kriss E]

Are you seriously adding Crosby to this debate? I’ll see your Crosby an ante a.... Scott Sevens!
We won’t know till we try! He is also at the mercy of our organization’s incessant efforts to keep Danault and Drouin on a top pairing. I’ve been wrong before so don’t take this too seriously.

Dude...I don't know what anything you said has to do with the initial point. KK was not better than Kopitar. It's not even debatable. Anyways, we can move on.

 

[Benstheman]

Bottom 10 team for sure.

I hope for bottom 5.

Next year playoffs.

3 years contender.

 

[WG]

Most teams who make a big jump in points the way the Habs did end up giving some of it back the following season (the way the Devils did last year). I can see the team as a little worse this year, maybe 90 points or so and finishing 10-11th in the East.

 

[Tyson]

Habs have not kept up with the improvements made by other teams.
Devils, Panthers, Flyers, Sabres and even the Ranger will all be much better. Habs simply did not keep pace.

 

[Kriss E]

I don't get the " career years "
That team is a very young one .A lot of players are too young to play their full potential . Of course they had career years but they will again next few years

Why not go down the list then? Who will be over-same-under.
Domi 82gp 28G 72pts
Tatar 80GP 28G 58pts
Drouin 81GP 18G 53pts
Danault 81GP 12G 53pts
Gallagher 82GP 33G 52pts
Shaw 63GP 19G 47pts
Petry 82GP 13G 46pts
KK 79GP 11G 34pts
Weber 58GP 14G 33pts
Byron 56GP 15G 31pts
Lehkonen 82GP 11G 33pts
Armia 57GP 13G 23pts
Mete 71GP 0G 13pts

I leave out the 4th liners and lower end Dmen. Also not counting rookies as it's too unpredictable. Suffice to say however, none of those guys are likely to be difference makers so let's focus on the above.

The first 5 guys, I expect less production simply because I don't expect them all to play yet another injury free season. Odds are one or two of them will get injured and I certainly don't think any of them will outdo their season. At best, I can see them pretty much matching it.
Shaw is gone so his production will need to be replaced. Who will do that? Completely unknown. Poe or Suzuki? Perhaps, I wouldn't bet on a rookie putting up close to 50pts though.
Could Lehkonen produce more? He's the one being used over Shaw. I've been saying for years how I don't see him being much than a 30ish pt guy, he's consistently been that the past 3 seasons. I don't see it change much.
Petry, I'd say about the same assuming he remains healthy.
Byron and Weber if they remain healthy should contribute more.
KK..well, he's not going to put up 50pts playing on the 3rd line for 13min, so it depends on his usage.
Armia, minor bump up if healthy, given his defensive role, he isn't gonna rack up the points.
Mete, God I hope he will be able to score a couple of goals this year.

Will Chiarot produce? His career high is 20pts, last year, and Benn put up 22..so..it's a wash.

All in all, I don't expect much improved production and the team's top guys would have to remain pretty healthy. Of course we can just close our eyes and say they're mostly young, they can outdo themselves! But as 08-09 showed us, that ain't necessarily gonna happen. Plekanec regressed hard after a career high 69pts, A.Kost also dropped down, Higgins-Lats-S.Kost all got hurt when we expected them to flourish more. So while things were very encouraging after a great 07-08 season, that ain't quite how it turned out.
We can also look at more recent examples like Schenn and Karlsson of guys who came out to surprised and produce way above their norm like Domi did, only to drop back down the following season.

To be clear, I'm not saying any of this proves/means this will happen to us. Just because we suffered setbacks in 08-09 or Karlsson/Schenn regressed that Domi and our 19-20 Habs edition will go through the same struggles. My point is just saying ''they're young and therefore can progress'' isn't much of an argument.

 

[Walrus26]

If you can't feel even remotely optimistic of 7th or 8th place after a long, dull summer......

Stay healthy, squeak into the party.

Park the panzer until mid-December.

 

[bobholly39]

Why not go down the list then? Who will be over-same-under.
Domi 82gp 28G 72pts
Tatar 80GP 28G 58pts
Drouin 81GP 18G 53pts
Danault 81GP 12G 53pts
Gallagher 82GP 33G 52pts
Shaw 63GP 19G 47pts
Petry 82GP 13G 46pts
KK 79GP 11G 34pts
Weber 58GP 14G 33pts
Byron 56GP 15G 31pts
Lehkonen 82GP 11G 33pts
Armia 57GP 13G 23pts
Mete 71GP 0G 13pts

I leave out the 4th liners and lower end Dmen. Also not counting rookies as it's too unpredictable. Suffice to say however, none of those guys are likely to be difference makers so let's focus on the above.

The first 5 guys, I expect less production simply because I don't expect them all to play yet another injury free season. Odds are one or two of them will get injured and I certainly don't think any of them will outdo their season. At best, I can see them pretty much matching it.
Shaw is gone so his production will need to be replaced. Who will do that? Completely unknown. Poe or Suzuki? Perhaps, I wouldn't bet on a rookie putting up close to 50pts though.
Could Lehkonen produce more? He's the one being used over Shaw. I've been saying for years how I don't see him being much than a 30ish pt guy, he's consistently been that the past 3 seasons. I don't see it change much.
Petry, I'd say about the same assuming he remains healthy.
Byron and Weber if they remain healthy should contribute more.
KK..well, he's not going to put up 50pts playing on the 3rd line for 13min, so it depends on his usage.
Armia, minor bump up if healthy, given his defensive role, he isn't gonna rack up the points.
Mete, God I hope he will be able to score a couple of goals this year.

Will Chiarot produce? His career high is 20pts, last year, and Benn put up 22..so..it's a wash.

All in all, I don't expect much improved production and the team's top guys would have to remain pretty healthy. Of course we can just close our eyes and say they're mostly young, they can outdo themselves! But as 08-09 showed us, that ain't necessarily gonna happen. Plekanec regressed hard after a career high 69pts, A.Kost also dropped down, Higgins-Lats-S.Kost all got hurt when we expected them to flourish more. So while things were very encouraging after a great 07-08 season, that ain't quite how it turned out.
We can also look at more recent examples like Schenn and Karlsson of guys who came out to surprised and produce way above their norm like Domi did, only to drop back down the following season.

To be clear, I'm not saying any of this proves/means this will happen to us. Just because we suffered setbacks in 08-09 or Karlsson/Schenn regressed that Domi and our 19-20 Habs edition will go through the same struggles. My point is just saying ''they're young and therefore can progress'' isn't much of an argument.

Tatar had 58 points, but the more important metric i think is 25 goals. He's been a consistent ~25 goal scorer all his career, so i expect the same. A few points more/less won't be a big difference for him, if he scores goals.

Gallagher scored 30 goals 2 years in a row. To be honest, i'm impressed, as i didn't think he'd be a consistent 30 goal guy. But since he did it twice, is all effort and right in his prime - again i think he's a pretty safe bet to repeat the output. Maybe a few points more/less again, but a big fluctuation would be surprising.

Danault - 53 points. Great career year for him. Can he repeat? I dunno, he played really well, so maybe, maybe not. I'd argue that him repeating is actually not all that important - because I think he can play more of a 3c role, vs 2c role this year, because i'm hoping others (see bottom 3 in my list) step up and compensate. So he goes down a few points.

Domi. This is the big question mark. Definitely was a career year for him - and if it ends up being a fluke and he goes back to a ~50 point/9 goal player, we're in trouble. We're counting on him to be our #1C. He was full effort and consistent last year, so based on what i've seen he's not the type of player you necessarily expect to see a big fall from, but this is the first player where there's legitimate risk. If he falter, we can be in trouble.

Drouin. 53 points is a career year for him? That's pretty sad lol. This is by far the most room for improvement. I still say a player as talented as Drouin should be able to flirt with ppg. A lot of other wingers exploded last year (Marner, Ranta). From his own draft, both Mack and Barkov took a few years to hit their true offensive stride. Now I don't think Drouin will end up anywhere as good as those guys - but there's still a lot of room for improvement. I think a ~70 point season for Drouin would be satisfactory, anything below is disappointing. It doesn't mean it's going to happen for sure - but i just think that combining both Drouin and Domi's offense from last year, and trying to guess what they do this year, i think as a duo both matching last year's output isn't that big a bar. If Domi falters a bit, hopefully Drouin finally steps up to compensate.

Now to me - the real difference between this year and last year for our forwards will come in the shape of Suziki, Poehling and KK.

KK - year 2. I'm not sure what people expect his ceiling to be - but most top forwards drafted as high as him score more than 34 points. By year 2, bigger, stronger, hopefully with more offensive linemates - I could see his numbers going up a bit.

Suzuki + Poehling. Both very talented rookies/prospects. Unlike KK - they're not 18, they're both a bit older, so even though they're rookies i could still see them helping our overall offense this year. It won't be drastic and they probably aren't leading candidates for a Calder or anything - but I think they can definitely help. All 3 of those are candidates to take on a 2C role from Danault in a more offensive role too.

I agree with you that a lot of our players had 'career years' last year, and so it's logical to expect a regression. But I also think if you break it down as I did, it's really not very unrealistic to expect better offense overall from our top forwards.

 

[kgboomer]

Same as last year, missing the playoff but there should be a couple more teams ahead. Habs will probably draft around 12th, we're back in the Houle era.

 

[Kriss E]

Tatar had 58 points, but the more important metric i think is 25 goals. He's been a consistent ~25 goal scorer all his career, so i expect the same. A few points more/less won't be a big difference for him, if he scores goals.

Gallagher scored 30 goals 2 years in a row. To be honest, i'm impressed, as i didn't think he'd be a consistent 30 goal guy. But since he did it twice, is all effort and right in his prime - again i think he's a pretty safe bet to repeat the output. Maybe a few points more/less again, but a big fluctuation would be surprising.

Danault - 53 points. Great career year for him. Can he repeat? I dunno, he played really well, so maybe, maybe not. I'd argue that him repeating is actually not all that important - because I think he can play more of a 3c role, vs 2c role this year, because i'm hoping others (see bottom 3 in my list) step up and compensate. So he goes down a few points.

Domi. This is the big question mark. Definitely was a career year for him - and if it ends up being a fluke and he goes back to a ~50 point/9 goal player, we're in trouble. We're counting on him to be our #1C. He was full effort and consistent last year, so based on what i've seen he's not the type of player you necessarily expect to see a big fall from, but this is the first player where there's legitimate risk. If he falter, we can be in trouble.

Drouin. 53 points is a career year for him? That's pretty sad lol. This is by far the most room for improvement. I still say a player as talented as Drouin should be able to flirt with ppg. A lot of other wingers exploded last year (Marner, Ranta). From his own draft, both Mack and Barkov took a few years to hit their true offensive stride. Now I don't think Drouin will end up anywhere as good as those guys - but there's still a lot of room for improvement. I think a ~70 point season for Drouin would be satisfactory, anything below is disappointing. It doesn't mean it's going to happen for sure - but i just think that combining both Drouin and Domi's offense from last year, and trying to guess what they do this year, i think as a duo both matching last year's output isn't that big a bar. If Domi falters a bit, hopefully Drouin finally steps up to compensate.

Drouin had 58pts not 53, and I think that's right about where he's gonna be. He's been battling consistency issues since making the NHL, I don't see that changing honestly. He probably will hit high moments scoring close to 1ppg pace, and then go through funks. End game, he'll be around the 55-60 mark again.

As for the others, you assume all of them are going to be healthy and play the entire season again. I don't see it, we would have to be lucky again with that.

Now to me - the real difference between this year and last year for our forwards will come in the shape of Suziki, Poehling and KK.

KK - year 2. I'm not sure what people expect his ceiling to be - but most top forwards drafted as high as him score more than 34 points. By year 2, bigger, stronger, hopefully with more offensive linemates - I could see his numbers going up a bit.

Suzuki + Poehling. Both very talented rookies/prospects. Unlike KK - they're not 18, they're both a bit older, so even though they're rookies i could still see them helping our overall offense this year. It won't be drastic and they probably aren't leading candidates for a Calder or anything - but I think they can definitely help. All 3 of those are candidates to take on a 2C role from Danault in a more offensive role too.

Again, for KK, I think it's about usage. As it currently stands, his linemates were the same, Byron-Armia. That's a 3rd line role again. I think that's where he's going to be used the most again. If Domi or Danault get injured, he'll have a shot.

Suzuki-Poehling taking over Danault? So...KK will stay on as the 3rd center and be leapfrogged by them? That would be disappointing. I think one of those guys start in the AHL without question. If camp continues as is, that is likely to be Poehling who's being outshone by Suzuki now.
Suzuki could make the team as a winger, unless they really want both those guys developing as centers, in which case they should put both those guys as top 2 centers in the AHL. That's how I see it

I agree with you that a lot of our players had 'career years' last year, and so it's logical to expect a regression. But I also think if you break it down as I did, it's really not very unrealistic to expect better offense overall from our top forwards.

I don't think there's much hope for an improvement this year. You would need everyone to pretty much repeat or outdo themselves and stay healthy. I think par for the course or slight regression is way more likely.

 

[bobholly39]

Drouin had 58pts not 53, and I think that's right about where he's gonna be. He's been battling consistency issues since making the NHL, I don't see that changing honestly. He probably will hit high moments scoring close to 1ppg pace, and then go through funks. End game, he'll be around the 55-60 mark again.

As for the others, you assume all of them are going to be healthy and play the entire season again. I don't see it, we would have to be lucky again with that.


Again, for KK, I think it's about usage. As it currently stands, his linemates were the same, Byron-Armia. That's a 3rd line role again. I think that's where he's going to be used the most again. If Domi or Danault get injured, he'll have a shot.

Suzuki-Poehling taking over Danault? So...KK will stay on as the 3rd center and be leapfrogged by them? That would be disappointing. I think one of those guys start in the AHL without question. If camp continues as is, that is likely to be Poehling who's being outshone by Suzuki now.
Suzuki could make the team as a winger, unless they really want both those guys developing as centers, in which case they should put both those guys as top 2 centers in the AHL. That's how I see it



I don't think there's much hope for an improvement this year. You would need everyone to pretty much repeat or outdo themselves and stay healthy. I think par for the course or slight regression is way more likely.

Slight correction - Drouin really did score 53, and not 58 point last year. I think he has room to improve.
You are right that we were lucky with injuries last year (to forwards at least) - but i don't really believe in predicting injuries, especially major injuries. For sure if a major injury (or multiple) happen - it changes things.

Also - i'm saying any of KK/Poehling/Suzuki would ideally take over the 2C position in a more offensive role, above Danault, allowing Danault to slot at 3c in a more defensive role. So if we lose a bit of offense from him - any of the other 3 can compensate.

Going back to the OP - i think our success still pass through Carey Price. I expect him to have a fantastic season.

 

[The Real Timo]

In case I never weighed in on the topic. No Playoffs for me please.

 

[Kriss E]

Slight correction - Drouin really did score 53, and not 58 point last year. I think he has room to improve.
You are right that we were lucky with injuries last year (to forwards at least) - but i don't really believe in predicting injuries, especially major injuries. For sure if a major injury (or multiple) happen - it changes things.

Also - i'm saying any of KK/Poehling/Suzuki would ideally take over the 2C position in a more offensive role, above Danault, allowing Danault to slot at 3c in a more defensive role. So if we lose a bit of offense from him - any of the other 3 can compensate.

Going back to the OP - i think our success still pass through Carey Price. I expect him to have a fantastic season.

You're right, got confused with Tatar 58pts.
As for injuries, not trying to predict who will get any but it is a viable point to raise when discussing progression or regression.

As for Danault, if we look at camp so far, he will be on 2nd line again, KK on the 3rd, same lines as last year.

 

[PaulD]

"PLAY OFFS ??? PLAY OFFS??? DID YOU SAY PLAY OFFS????"

 

[Teufelsdreck]

The Candiens should make thee playoffs. Last season Erber Will the Habs go far in the playoffs? Not yet. missed a number of games. Having Poehling for a full season will make a difference. As for the other Atlantic teams, I expect the Bruins to be weaker because they're againg. On the other hand, the panthers are rising.

 

[ZUKI]

Are you seriously adding Crosby to this debate? I’ll see your Crosby an ante a.... Scott Sevens!
We won’t know till we try! He is also at the mercy of our organization’s incessant efforts to keep Danault and Drouin on a top pairing. I’ve been wrong before so don’t take this too seriously.

Danault isn't Desharnais man . He was there because he played that good ; his line was one of the best matching lines of the NHL . Top one at 5/5 .
Drouin was close to point per game for a good part of the season . When he stopped to produce , Julien put him on the 3rd line .

 

[ZUKI]

"PLAY OFFS ??? PLAY OFFS??? DID YOU SAY PLAY OFFS????"

A Stanley Cup , nothing less !