Speculation: Predicting Edmonton's ranking in the West

[Eirhead*]

Edmonton moves ahead of Minnesota, Vancouver, Arizona, Nashville, Winnipeg & Calgary this year.

 

[Insta]

MacT seems to be happy to wait just like Tambo was..
We are now waiting and hoping for guys like Draisaitl, Yakimov, Khaira, Moroz, and Nurse to be real NHL players and beef our team up. Its gonna be awhile before we escape the cellar..



Hopefully we can settle down in our own zone.. but it sure didnt look like it in preseason.

I imagine we are going to be in the conversation for McDavid.

You do realize MacT has changed almost the entire team, right?

 

[dem]

You do realize MacT has changed almost the entire team, right?

You could have said the same about Tambo..
Swapping out pieces.. never bringing in real difference makers.

 

[Insta]

You could have said the same about Tambo..

So are you saying your own point makes no sense then? MacT brought in a ton of new guys, including many veterans, yet somehow he's only "happy to wait"?

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Just a fail. Are you kidding...dude will be top 5 in wins this year.
He's only averaged over 57 games a season over the last 4 years.
32 wins or more in 3 of the 4

You do realize they have Kari Lehtonen, right? Yeah, a big reason for their success!

Not if he doesn't stay healthy. That's his biggest issue.

 

[rboomercat90]

I wish folks would stop throwing around .500 as a benchmark. .500 isn't a concept has much meaning anymore thanks to the Bettman point.

Wins and losses are the real indicator.

 

[doulos]

Not if he doesn't stay healthy. That's his biggest issue.

In the past this has been an issue. However, over the past few seasons there are only a few goalies who have played more games than Lehtonen.

 

[rboomercat90]

You do realize MacT has changed almost the entire team, right?

And what does this mean exactly?

You do realize Tambellini had also changed most of the team from 2010-2012 as well right? It's yet to be seen if MacT's moves will be any better than Tamby's were.

 

[SPIRIT]

And what does this mean exactly?

You do realize Tambellini had also changed most of the team from 2010-2012 as well right? It's yet to be seen if MacT's moves will be any better than Tamby's were.

It means a lot, because MacT acquired professional hockey players and Tambellini acquired Eric Belanger (and let's not forget the mighty Smithson, to solidify our playoff push).

 

[McShogun99]

It means a lot, because MacT acquired professional hockey players and Tambellini acquired Eric Belanger (and let's not forget the mighty Smithson, to solidify our playoff push).

I remember that TDL, we were sitting in 8th place. Tambo could have traded out UFAs and killed the teams confidence of making a playoff push or he could have bought in some veterans to help with the playoff push. Instead he did exactly what Tambo was known for and did nothing but bring in a 13th forward.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Oilers pts per season:

13/14 67 pts MacT
12/13 45 pts in 48 games... projection 77pts Tambo
11/12 74 pts Tambo
10/11 62 pts Tambo
09/10 62 pts Tambo
08/09 85 pts Tambo


MacT's season was a whopping 5 pts above Tambo's worst 2 years... and 7-10 below Tambo's best(after the rebuild "officially" began).

If this squad can actually crack 80 pts and return to at least "mediocre" levels... only then can we say MacT is making any sort of real tangible impact for the better on this roster.

 

[Oil80]

15th in west, 29th in NHL

Taylor Hall will demand a trade

 

[McOvechking]

15th in west, 29th in NHL

Taylor Hall will demand a trade

I concur.

 

[oilerbear]

Team / Centers Depth/ Wingers / (Checking/ Team Defense) / Top Pairing Defense / Top 6 corps / Goaltending Tandem / Average Rating
1. Los Angeles 2 6 1 2 2 1 2.33
2. Chicago 4 1 2 1 1 10 3.17
3. St.Louis 3 3 3 4 3 12 4.67
4. Colorado 7 2 7 11 10 2 6.50
5. Minnesota 8 10 5 5 6 5 6.50
6. San Jose 1 8 6 7 8 11 6.83
7. Anaheim 5 7 4 8 11 7 7.00
8. Vancouver 10 5 8 9 7 4 7.17
9. Nashville 11 12 11 3 4 3 7.33
10. Arizona 9 13 9 6 5 8 8.33
11. Dallas 6 9 10 14 14 6 9.83
12. Edmonton 13 4 13 12 13 13 11.33
13. Winnipeg 12 11 12 13 9 14 11.83
14. Calgary 14 14 14 10 12 14 13.00

I ranked teams by position, and took their average rating and converted it into an index. On paper, that's how the west looks like to me going into this upcoming season.

feelings and opinions are from the english and Journalism side of the brain.

Data, Results, Facts from the other side of brain.

Just for your Knowledge wing point production post lockout
#1 Hall-Eberle 232 pt #1 first line
#15 Perron- Purcell 160 pt #2 2nd line (hossa-Saad 165)
#41 Pouliot- Yak 111 #1 3rd line
503 points is #1 post lockout total from any teams
top 9 wingers.


you win the cup with
2-3 top 30 forwards (less with a top golaie)
4-5 top 90 depth
7-8 top 180 Fwds
2 tough Zs forward Pairs
4+ box protection (lowest % of shots in box/chance area)
1 top goalie
High Box Save %
low rebound rate
high rebound save%

if you have the same goalie in these defensive situations
the average shot success rate will be 17% box and 4% perimeter

d men can vary from 20% in box to 35% in box
in 100 shots:
20% in @ 17% success is 3.4G
80% perimeter @ 4% is 3.2G
this is chara:

so 20/80 dman and a 35/65 dman has a variance of .020 save %

so an league avergae goalie .915 save% can have a range of .905 to .925 just from how well the box is protected.

LAK had 6 top 40 box protection D. paired with the 7th best box Goalie lead to 5 of the top 10 EVGA d in the game.
And doughty who was #30

box protection last year was
#1 Chara
#2 Lovejoy
#3 Marincin in OKC.

Nikitin #1 2nd comp last 3 years
Fayne #2 2nd comp last 3 years.

2011 Boston Chara; Seidenberg; Ference; Boychuck
Marincin 1st comp
Nikitin 2nd comp
Fayne 2nd comp
Ference 2nd comp.

Mact changed 17 players in 13 months.

1. top 30 2
hall #6
Eberel 326

2. 5 top 90
2 top30
Perron #56
RNH #69
Purcell #74

3. 7 top 180
5 top 90
pouliot #154
Yak #164

4. 2 tough zone start fwd pairs
Hendricks-Gordon 13-14 edm
Pouliot-Purcell 2nd unit TMP 12-13

5. 4 + top 30 box protect d.
Narincin #3 1st com
Nikitin #1 2nd comp
Fayne #2 2nd comp
Ference 2nd comp

top box protect goalie:
#1 Bishop
#2 lunquist
#3 Reimer
#4 Scrivens
#5 Rask
#6 Lehtonen
#7 Quick

Hall (6) - RNH (69) - Eberle (26)
Perron (56) - Arco - Purcell (74)
Pouliot (154) - Draisatl - Yak (164)
hendricks - Gordon - Jeonsuu
Acton

Ference-Petry
Fayne- Nikitin
Klefbom-Scultz

Scrivens
Fasth

we were 13-5-4 versus the east with 4+ top 180 fwds
now we have 7.

we we were 1-20-2 vesus the best of the west with
Ference-petry
Smid-Belov
N. Schultz-J. schultz

Scrivens
Fasth

i predict we will do alot better versus the best in the west.

 

[dem]

Leafs Lunch & Ferraro blasts the Oilers..

http://iphone.tsn.ca/tsnpodcasts/LL_RayFerraro_Oct8.mp3

Starts at about 15:25

 

[Gone]

15th in west, 29th in NHL

Taylor Hall will demand a trade

This is more likely than the Oilers making the playoffs.

 

[doulos]

It's too bad that optimism has been smashed right out of the majority of the fanbase, myself included. I hope one day this team is not a joke

 

[Blue And Orange]

This is more likely than the Oilers making the playoffs.

Sadly I agree, I wonder if Hfboards crashes because it will complete pandemonium if this happens.

 

[Blue And Orange]

It's too bad that optimism has been smashed right out of the majority of the fanbase, myself included. I hope one day this team is not a joke

8 years of missing the playoffs (strong odds of it being 9 years) does that to the psyche of the fanbase. I remember a time when the Oilers are a decent time and the fanbase were generally optimistic rather than doom and gloom.

 

[doulos]

8 years of missing the playoffs (strong odds of it being 9 years) does that to the psyche of the fanbase. I remember a time when the Oilers are a decent time and the fanbase were generally optimistic rather than doom and gloom.

Oh, I'm not saying we don't have reason to feel this way. It just sucks.

 

[SometimesY]

Playoffs this year.. unless Eakins gets stupid and MacT is still misted by this guy.
At the beginning of the year, I always believe in playoffs. Hope the players do also.

 

[Gone]

8 years of missing the playoffs (strong odds of it being 9 years) does that to the psyche of the fanbase. I remember a time when the Oilers are a decent time and the fanbase were generally optimistic rather than doom and gloom.

Funny, several posters on this site saw the downfall coming with KLowe becoming GM. It was pretty evident from that point that his arrogance coupled with a pretty low GM "IQ" would be devastating for the team. Sadly, he is still firmly in charge and until that changes - all will remain the same.

Let's all pray that Scrivens is "superhuman" this year, like his record setting game. That could be the difference between a "fun" season and typical Oiler hockey.

 

[oXo Cube]

Leafs Lunch & Ferraro blasts the Oilers..

http://iphone.tsn.ca/tsnpodcasts/LL_RayFerraro_Oct8.mp3

Starts at about 15:25

It's pretty depressing that I can listen to something like this and agree with basically all of it.

At least up until they start talking about the Yakupov draft anyway.

 

[SPIRIT]

I remember that TDL, we were sitting in 8th place. Tambo could have traded out UFAs and killed the teams confidence of making a playoff push or he could have bought in some veterans to help with the playoff push. Instead he did exactly what Tambo was known for and did nothing but bring in a 13th forward.

Who, hilariously, couldn't even play in key games due to needing to wait in FLA for personal reasons.

 

[Blue And Orange]

Funny, several posters on this site saw the downfall coming with KLowe becoming GM. It was pretty evident from that point that his arrogance coupled with a pretty low GM "IQ" would be devastating for the team. Sadly, he is still firmly in charge and until that changes - all will remain the same.

Let's all pray that Scrivens is "superhuman" this year, like his record setting game. That could be the difference between a "fun" season and typical Oiler hockey.

Well that Kevin Lowe Must Go movement made Lowe think about taking a leave of absence until Katz stepped in and said no.

If the Oilers have another year like last year, the Lowe Must Go movement will pick up steam. It will be more than just billboards, this whole movement could end up on the national spotlight further increasing the pressure on Lowe to step down.