Speculation: Predicting Edmonton's ranking in the West

[Nunymare]

I can see us getting off to a great start, and by that I mean just under .500 after ten games. Its all downhill after that though. Last in the west. By a lot.

Reminds me of that year Khabi went on a tear and we had a great start only to **** the bed hardcore later on...

 

[coffeyland]

I would predict that the Oilers will make some progress this year. I would think that's they will have a better season than the Flames and Yotes. It will likely be a stretch that the Oil can pass both the Jets and Preds but it is possible if the D and G can reduce our goals against. I'm not certain we are better with Hunt and/or Klefbom versus say Marcinin (who is a quiet dman). We need more grit than flash on D. Our D needs to play solid D to surpass the Jets and Preds in the standings. I'll also predict Dallas will struggle this year while Vancouver pushes for a potential playoff spot.

 

[McArthur]

I can see us getting off to a great start, and by that I mean just under .500 after ten games. Its all downhill after that though. Last in the west. By a lot.

I read a lot of your posts, but this is one is straight up mean. lol. i'm gonna be the bad guy that says 7th, that's right 7th. revamped powerplay, and more consistant starts (first goals, playing with the lead)... those 2 things will completely re-define the outlook of this club.

 

[hallhopkinseberle]

I mostly did this for ***** and gigs.

What everyone scored last season 5 on 5
Hall(20)-Hopkins(13)-Eberle(20)
Pouliot(8)-Drastial(9)-Yakupov(7)
Perron(19)-Acrobello(3)-Purcell(9)
Hendricks(4)-Gordon(6)-Joesnuu(2)

Nikitin(2)-Fayne(3)
Ference(3)-Schultz(10)
Nurse/Klefbom/Marincin(lets say 3)-Petry(6)

147 Even Strength goals(20th in the league)

Last years team 5 on 5
Hall(20)-Hopkins(13)-Eberle(20)
Perron(19)-Gagner(9)-Hemsky(7)
Smyth(5)-Gordon(6)-Yakupov(7)
Acton(3)-Acrobello(3)-Jones(2)

Ference(3)-Schultz(10)
Larsen(2)-Petry(6)
Belov(1)-Fedun(2)


138 even strength goals(28th in the league)



and if our power-play goes back to 2011-2012 NHL season somehow


another 9 Goals for

+

Get to league average for empty net goals against(-5)

Scrivens + Fasth keep their combine SV%(0.9157) up for us last season over the course of the season( -30 goals against)


221 Goals for(18th(l),8th(c)) and 235 Goals against(20th(l),11th(C))

- 14 Goals Differential(20th in the league,10 in Conference)

I personally would be alright if he had this sort of season.

I am pretty sure our Shots against per game will go down, this season due to the adding of Pouliot,Purceel,Nikitin,Drastial and Fayne over Smyth,Hemsky,Larsen,Gagner and Belov. So there is potentialsos our Goals Against numbers could go down some more.

 

[sportsdynasty]

14th, last in the West. With the worst management and coaching in the league, this team will take another step backwards.

 

[McAsuno]

14th, last in the West. With the worst management and coaching in the league, this team will take another step backwards.

Lol......

 

[Yablo21]

I say 6th in the conference.
Last year was a wash with the start Dubnyk gave us, took all the wind out of the sails. Tough to judge the team's performance after that start. There was a good 40 game stretch in the middle of the season where the team played .500 hockey and I think with games that matter we will push that boundrey.

Last Season:
First 21 games
4-15-2 (0.238)
Last 61
25-29-7 (0.467)
Games 22-72
~21-22-7 (0.490)

We have talent that is hugely underrated and now picked up size and goaltending. I'm looking for the team to surprise this year.

 

[McAsuno]

I say 6th in the conference.
Last year was a wash with the start Dubnyk gave us, took all the wind out of the sails. Tough to judge the team's performance after that start. There was a good 40 game stretch in the middle of the season where the team played .500 hockey and I think with games that matter we will push that boundrey.

Last Season:
First 21 games
4-15-2 (0.238)
Last 61
25-29-7 (0.467)
Games 22-72
~21-22-7 (0.490)

We have talent that is hugely underrated and now picked up size and goaltending. I'm looking for the team to surprise this year.

Its quite arguable that the terrible goaltending was the main culprit of the first 21 games. They should have won a few of them if Dubnyk didn't **** the bed in the jets and leafs game as an example. 0.490 isn't too great, but a duo of Scrivens/Fasth, an upgraded D, along with a much better forwards puts this team in a bubble position imo. Not the best team, but certainly not the worst.

 

[Yablo21]

Its quite arguable that the terrible goaltending was the main culprit of the first 21 games. They should have won a few of them if Dubnyk didn't **** the bed in the jets and leafs game as an example. 0.490 isn't too great, but a duo of Scrivens/Fasth, an upgraded D, along with a much better forwards puts this team in a bubble position imo. Not the best team, but certainly not the worst.

Yeah, and I don't think that .490 is that great either, but with games that matter I would expect even better performance.

 

[McAsuno]

Yeah, and I don't think that .490 is that great either, but with games that matter I would expect even better performance.

At least we'll be able to watch meaningful hockey before the good ol winter comes. Knowing we were basically out of the playoffs early on last season with the cold weather made me even more miserable.

 

[EnthusiasticYak]

I mostly did this for ***** and gigs.

What everyone scored last season 5 on 5
Hall(20)-Hopkins(13)-Eberle(20)
Pouliot(8)-Drastial(9)-Yakupov(7)
Perron(19)-Acrobello(3)-Purcell(9)
Hendricks(4)-Gordon(6)-Joesnuu(2)

Nikitin(2)-Fayne(3)
Ference(3)-Schultz(10)
Nurse/Klefbom/Marincin(lets say 3)-Petry(6)

147 Even Strength goals(20th in the league)

Last years team 5 on 5
Hall(20)-Hopkins(13)-Eberle(20)
Perron(19)-Gagner(9)-Hemsky(7)
Smyth(5)-Gordon(6)-Yakupov(7)
Acton(3)-Acrobello(3)-Jones(2)

Ference(3)-Schultz(10)
Larsen(2)-Petry(6)
Belov(1)-Fedun(2)


138 even strength goals(28th in the league)



and if our power-play goes back to 2011-2012 NHL season somehow


another 9 Goals for

+

Get to league average for empty net goals against(-5)

Scrivens + Fasth keep their combine SV%(0.9157) up for us last season over the course of the season( -30 goals against)


221 Goals for(18th(l),8th(c)) and 235 Goals against(20th(l),11th(C))

- 14 Goals Differential(20th in the league,10 in Conference)

I personally would be alright if he had this sort of season.

I am pretty sure our Shots against per game will go down, this season due to the adding of Pouliot,Purceel,Nikitin,Drastial and Fayne over Smyth,Hemsky,Larsen,Gagner and Belov. So there is potentialsos our Goals Against numbers could go down some more.

I'm not sure how much bearing this will actually have in terms of translating this season due to the complete change in chemistry but it is still a good way to look at it and a good analogy. Thanks for this.

My list for regular season standings:

1. St. Louis
2. Chicago
3. Dallas
4. Minnesota
5. Nashville
6. Colorado
7. Winnipeg

1. Los Angeles
2. San Jose
3. Anaheim
4. Edmonton
5. Arizona
6. Vancouver
7. Calgary

I don't think the Oilers will be nearly as bad as most think they will be, barring injuries of course. A lot will ride on Hall and RNH but after that their depth should be drastically improved.

 

[UglyStupidAds]

I wish this was a poll, that would be way more fun. I'm too lazy to read through everyone's results.

Looking at the Western conference I think the following teams are for sure ahead of us: LA, Anaheim, Chicago, San Jose, St. Louis

Likely ahead: Dallas, Colorado, Minnesota

Could break either way (depending on different factors): Vancouver, Arizona, Nashville

Behind the Oilers: Calgary, Winnipeg.

I'll be optimistic and say the Oilers do better than Arizona and Nashville and finish 10th in the conference.

 

[guymez]

Interesting point.

I remember we started the 2011/12 season with a start that is home games heavy and we got off to a 7-2-1 start or something like that. After that, the rest was history and we finish 29th.

I see us doing the exact same thing. And the great thing is, we have teams in the East like Carolina, Tampa, and Washington coming.

AS mentioned in my previous post, I see the Oilers having an above average record against teams in the East. Thankfully with 30 games against the East, it should insulate our record a bit when we face the tough wild West.

Sounds reasonable enough.

If the team is above .500 against the East and at .500 against the West that puts them in the 80+ points range.

That seems about right to me.

 

[Blue And Orange]

Sounds reasonable enough.

If the team is above .500 against the East and at .500 against the West that puts them in the 80+ points range.

That seems about right to me.

Getting a .500 record against the west AND getting north of .500 in the East would almost guarantee us playoffs.

The Oilers play 30 teams against the East and 52 teams against the West. So computing those records, it's estimated that we get 26 or so wins against western teams and >15 wins against eastern teams, that would put us somewhere above 41 wins which imo is the benchmark number of wins needed to qualify for the playoffs or close to it.

Obtaining a .500 record or better against the West is crucial to our success but unfortunately, I see them struggling immensely against Western Conference teams so obtaining .500 against the West is a crapshoot IMO.

The East, I'm really not that worried about. Other than Boston, Pittsburgh, and maybe Philly, I see us winning a good majority of games against Eastern teams. The disparity between East and West is massive. Which is why I believe the Cup will stay West this year and probably for years to come.

 

[nexttothemoon]

It's a fallacy that the Oilers are "good" versus the East. They suck less vs the East than the West... true enough and they absolutely BLOW vs the West.

Then again EVERY West team (other than Dallas inexplicably) also does well vs the East... so how does that help the Oilers?

Oilers went 14-14-6 vs the East last season. That's only .500.

Every other Western team had just as good a record or better... again except Dallas (The Stars did very well vs the West which made up for their mediocrity vs the East.)

So in short if every team eats up the East and you can only manage a .500 record against them... no great shakes.


Another fallacy... the Oilers would make the playoffs if they were in the East... apparently because they'd play more Eastern teams.

Nope. The Oilers .500 record vs the East was worse than all but 4 Eastern teams records vs the Eastern teams. So basically 12 Eastern teams ate up the rest of the East better than the Oilers did as well.

Even most of the East was better at beating the East than the Oilers. So to think they'd be in the top 8 and grab a playoff spot... not a chance.... not based on last years stats anyway.

To top it off... Oilers won only 15 of 50 games vs the West... that's a 30% win rate.

How many Eastern teams had a lower winning pct vs the West than that?

2... Buffalo and New Jersey.

So no... the Oilers suck vs the West AND the East and no they wouldn't make the playoffs in either conference.

If they would have played 54 Eastern games and 28 Western games like the teams in the East did... based on their record last season... the Oilers would have ended up with 74 pts instead of 67 pts.

74 pts would have put them ahead of only Buffalo and Florida... well that's still the only teams they actually DID finish ahead of anyway.

So even playing in the East they still would have missed the playoffs by miles and would have still been the 3rd worst team in the NHL... no net difference to where they actually ended up.

Of course they wouldn't be the basement team in the East... we could look down and laugh at the Panthers and Sabres and then would have still watched the Oilers draft 3rd regardless. Laughs on us.

 

[Isaak16]

I've decided we're making the playoffs this year. You're welcome.

 

[Insta]

It's easy to blame Dubnyk for last season, because his bad play cost the team several games, but they still got outshot on average by 6 per game. You aren't going to win in the long run getting outshot by 6 per game, I don't care who your goalie is. They need to improve a lot this year to have a chance at anything.

 

[TheRebuild]

My heart says, fighting for a playoff spot.
My brain says, bottom 5 of the league.

 

[nally]

....What. You do realize they have Kari Lehtonen right? And their defense is nowhere near as good as the 5 teams below them.

Just a fail. Are you kidding...dude will be top 5 in wins this year.
He's only averaged over 57 games a season over the last 4 years.
32 wins or more in 3 of the 4

You do realize they have Kari Lehtonen, right? Yeah, a big reason for their success!

 

[nally]

I would predict that the Oilers will make some progress this year. I would think that's they will have a better season than the Flames and Yotes. It will likely be a stretch that the Oil can pass both the Jets and Preds but it is possible if the D and G can reduce our goals against. I'm not certain we are better with Hunt and/or Klefbom versus say Marcinin (who is a quiet dman). We need more grit than flash on D. Our D needs to play solid D to surpass the Jets and Preds in the standings. I'll also predict Dallas will struggle this year while Vancouver pushes for a potential playoff spot.

Predicting the opposite

 

[McGlassbangers]

4th in Pacific

San Jose
Los Angeles
Anaheim
Edmonton
Vancouver
Calgary
Arizona

 

[Bauer83]

4th in Pacific

San Jose
Los Angeles
Anaheim
Edmonton
Vancouver
Calgary
Arizona

I can go along with this. Gut tells me 5th in the pacific, but I do believe the progress is going to be better than expected, or Eakins is gone 20 games in. Either option works well for me as I still don't have faith that he is the coach who will push into the playoffs, and carry us through rounds when the time comes.

Other prediction, if Nurse does well first 10 games, a trade will be made for a 3rd/2.5C with either Petry or Marincin on the way out.

 

[Moose Coleman]

I wish folks would stop throwing around .500 as a benchmark. .500 isn't a concept has much meaning anymore thanks to the Bettman point.

 

[ToeMcDrag83]

Playoff Locks:

Chicago, St. Louis, LA Kings, Anaheim, San Jose

Stronger Bubble Teams:

Dallas, Minnesota, Avalanche, Vancouver

Weaker Bubble Teams:

Arizona, Nashville, Winnipeg

Bottom Dwellers:

Edmonton, Calgary

This has been the breakdown more or less last couple years I think. We have the paper product to move ahead of the "Weaker Bubble Teams" I think, but are pretty hard pressed to join stronger bubble teams.

I think we go 10th in the conference. Lots to prove still. Very much a "time to walk, enough talk" type season, there has to be some measurable improvement.

 

[dem]

MacT seems to be happy to wait just like Tambo was..
We are now waiting and hoping for guys like Draisaitl, Yakimov, Khaira, Moroz, and Nurse to be real NHL players and beef our team up. Its gonna be awhile before we escape the cellar..



Hopefully we can settle down in our own zone.. but it sure didnt look like it in preseason.

I imagine we are going to be in the conversation for McDavid.