Predict McDavid’s peak point total

[daver]

Crosby literally jumped from 33 goals to 51, and we are some how confused whether or not CM surpass his point total set last year even by 2-3 points.

Do you need the many examples of a player going thru peaks and valleys throughout their careers? Or the many players who do not show growth in their game despite their age?

 

[Aceboogie]

This season hes going to score 55 goals + 65 assists for 120 points

 

[Varan]

Who the hell knows how he will develop? All I was doing was pointing out the fallacy of saying that he improved his production last year when, relative to the league, he did not. That shouldn't be a hard concept to grasp.

why are you bringing up relative to the field? it is a fact that he improved his production last year. this poll is literally asking what his peak point totals will look like, meaning at the height of his career, what point totals will he produce. it is fair to assume that a player will produce and play at his best at his peak

this poll has nothing to do with relative to the field, simply only point totals

 

[EdJovanovski]

I'm assuming scoring increases, 155

 

[daver]

why are you bringing up relative to the field? it is a fact that he improved his production last year. this poll is literally asking what his peak point totals will look like, meaning at the height of his career, what point totals will he produce. it is fair to assume that a player will produce and play at his best at his peak

this poll has nothing to do with relative to the field, simply only point totals

How else are we supposed to evaluate a season when it is obvious that the scoring environment by the elite offensive players is not constant year to year? My answer to the OP is presuming that scoring levels will be the same as last year. My answer would have been different if the presumption is based on 16/17.

Again, not too hard of a concept to grasp unless you are desperate to make McDavid out to be better than his numbers have shown him to be.

 

[daver]

why are you bringing up relative to the field? it is a fact that he improved his production last year. this poll is literally asking what his peak point totals will look like, meaning at the height of his career, what point totals will he produce. it is fair to assume that a player will produce and play at his best at his peak

this poll has nothing to do with relative to the field, simply only point totals

The original point was that a pretty good PP in 16/17 did not give McDavid a more impressive Art Ross win than last year's win (cue the TEN POINTS!!!!! crowd). Willful ignorance over scoring levels doesn't change that FACT.

 

[Laineux]

He can hit 130 if stars align and I like to be an optimist.

 

[Varan]

The original point was that a pretty good PP in 16/17 did not give McDavid a more impressive Art Ross win than last year's win (cue the TEN POINTS!!!!! crowd). Willful ignorance over scoring levels doesn't change that FACT.

or or or..... you could simply accept the premise that he got better

if you accept that premise, then it makes your entire point about PP seem absurd, but you aren't gonna accept it tho.

are you seriously trying to argue, that a player who scored 8 more points and eleven more goals from the season prior, did not get better? and if they did get better, it would be asinine to think that his point totals would not, both, increase with a better PP, and give a better AR win. you literally will not give up on the 16/17 season and their PP for that year.

 

[daver]

or or or..... you could simply accept the premise that he got better

if you accept that premise, then it makes your entire point about PP seem absurd, but you aren't gonna accept it tho.

are you seriously trying to argue, that a player who scored 8 more points and eleven more goals from the season prior, did not get better? and if they did get better, it would be asinine to think that his point totals would not, both, increase with a better PP, and give a better AR win. you literally will not give up on the 16/17 season and their PP for that year.

So more points = better season with zero context? So any player in NHL history with more than 108 points was better than McDavid? Is that what you are saying?

Why should anyone accept the premise that he got better when he did not win the Art Ross in any more of an impressive fashion that the year before? League-wide, it was easier to score points which was why the amount of PPG players more than doubled than the year before.

As for a better PP, this presumes:

(1) that the best offensive player on a team has no bearing on the success of it's PP. Maybe 16/17 was an anomaly and McDavid sucks on the PP.

(2) that a better PP would not influence his ES production, hence the reference to 16/17; the only evidence we have for how McDavid's production is affected by a better PP.

It is asinine to simply assume his ES point production would have been the exact same last year if the PP was converting better.

 

[daver]

or or or..... you could simply accept the premise that he got better

So here is a question:

Do you believe that the 16/17 versions of McDavid and Crosby would have only had the 7th and 8th best PPGs if they played last year?

NHL.com - Stats

 

[Varan]

So here is a question:

Do you believe that the 16/17 versions of McDavid and Crosby would have only had the 7th and 8th best PPGs if they played last year?

NHL.com - Stats

you can't just drop a "version" of a player from a season prior into another and try to extrapolate considering they already played the damn season lol. players change year to year, even if the change is minute. if the 17/18 season was coming up, I would say no, it would be higher, however it already happened.

 

[zar]

Had 108 last year...

If the Oilers had even an average PP, he would have likely had another 15 points.
Logic: McDavid only had 20PP points... the average for the next top 10 in scoring was 35 PP points.

108 + 15 = 123 points.

It was well documented he was sick for the first month.

Now get the Oilers a decent puck moving Dman... potentially Bouchard fills that role in a couple years.

I voted 120-130 points but it is very plausible that he hits 130+.

 

[daver]

you can't just drop a "version" of a player from a season prior into another and try to extrapolate considering they already played the damn season lol. players change year to year, even if the change is minute. if the 17/18 season was coming up, I would say no, it would be higher, however it already happened.

WTF? This is exactly what you are doing to make the claim that McDavid was better in 17/18. Using your standard, Kucherov, Giroux, Malkin, and MacKinnon were all better than McDavid was in 16/17 because they had better PPGs than McDavid did.

Do you agree with this?

 

[1OApick]

Had 108 last year...

If the Oilers had even an average PP, he would have likely had another 15 points.
Logic: McDavid only had 20PP points... the average for the next top 10 in scoring was 35 PP points.

108 + 15 = 123 points.

It was well documented he was sick for the first month.

Now get the Oilers a decent puck moving Dman... potentially Bouchard fills that role in a couple years.

I voted 120-130 points but it is very plausible that he hits 130+.

McDavid can do 130 points. And his powerplay numbers are low and could be higher. McDavid is one the reasons why Oilers have bad powerplay. He hangs on puck too long to make plays. McDavid is in my opinion the best player in NHL but he does not crack to my top 30 powerplay players. I think he needs to get better on powerplays.

 

[Varan]

WTF? This is exactly what you are doing to make the claim that McDavid was better in 17/18. Using your standard, Kucherov, Giroux, Malkin, and MacKinnon were all better than McDavid was in 16/17 because they had better PPGs than McDavid did.

Do you agree with this?

Absolutely not. First of all I am comparing CM to himself, not others. Secondly, he was better because he damn near swept all the awards, not because of some insignificant PPG difference where games played plays a huge factor (and CM played ALL 82).

Lastly, it is a fact that he improved his PPG, point total, and goal total from the year before. You are trying to make an insane claim that, because of a sample of 1 year, where the PP was decent, it showed that he doesn’t produce higher than what he did had it not been god awful this past year. That is insanity.

Stop using such small samples for crying out loud. You can make these claims when he has a few full seasons under his belt, starting with this one.

Edit: In 16/17, CM had the highest PPG in the league. Get your facts straight.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

136 points: 42 goals, 94 Apples

 

[daver]

Absolutely not. First of all I am comparing CM to himself, not others. Secondly, he was better because he damn near swept all the awards, not because of some insignificant PPG difference where games played plays a huge factor (and CM played ALL 82).

Absolutely not. First of all I am comparing CM to himself, not others. Secondly, he was better because he damn near swept all the awards, not because of some insignificant PPG difference where games played plays a huge factor (and CM played ALL 82).

Lastly, it is a fact that he improved his PPG, point total, and goal total from the year before. You are trying to make an insane claim that, because of a sample of 1 year, where the PP was decent, it showed that he doesn’t produce higher than what he did had it not been god awful this past year. That is insanity.

Stop using such small samples for crying out loud. You can make these claims when he has a few full seasons under his belt, starting with this one.

Edit: In 16/17, CM had the highest PPG in the league. Get your facts straight.

The fact is Kucherov, Giroux, Malkin, and MacKinnon all played better last year than McDavid did in 16/17 using your logic of comparing stats from one season to another with zero context.

Trying to write off a PPG comparison because of a handful of games is laughable. There were nine players over 90 points last year, there 20 players over a PPG; these are significantly different numbers from 16/17 but you refuse to acknowledge this.

 

[daver]

Lastly, it is a fact that he improved his PPG, point total, and goal total from the year before. You are trying to make an insane claim that, because of a sample of 1 year, where the PP was decent, it showed that he doesn’t produce higher than what he did had it not been god awful this past year. That is insanity.

Stop using such small samples for crying out loud. You can make these claims when he has a few full seasons under his belt, starting with this one.

He has two full seasons under his belt. One year saw his team with a very good PP and he won an average Art Ross. Another year saw his team with a terrible PP and he won another average Art Ross.

There is no such thing as a small sample size when the sample comprises 50% of his career full seasons.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

Absolutely not. First of all I am comparing CM to himself, not others. Secondly, he was better because he damn near swept all the awards, not because of some insignificant PPG difference where games played plays a huge factor (and CM played ALL 82).

Lastly, it is a fact that he improved his PPG, point total, and goal total from the year before. You are trying to make an insane claim that, because of a sample of 1 year, where the PP was decent, it showed that he doesn’t produce higher than what he did had it not been god awful this past year. That is insanity.

Stop using such small samples for crying out loud. You can make these claims when he has a few full seasons under his belt, starting with this one.

Edit: In 16/17, CM had the highest PPG in the league. Get your facts straight.

It’s funny, I’ve put the guy I’m assuming you’re talking to on ignore. Just makes discussions so much better.

I can tell that he’s changing his goal posts. Raw production, now its raw production gap. It never changes.

 

[Varan]

It’s funny, I’ve put the guy I’m assuming you’re talking to on ignore. Just makes discussions so much better.

I can tell that he’s changing his goal posts. Raw production, now its raw production gap. It never changes.

LMAOO ya it’s good ol’ daver. Trying to use 1 season of good PP to downplay CM’s future point totals.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Had 108 last year...

If the Oilers had even an average PP, he would have likely had another 15 points.
Logic: McDavid only had 20PP points... the average for the next top 10 in scoring was 35 PP points.

108 + 15 = 123 points.

It was well documented he was sick for the first month.

Now get the Oilers a decent puck moving Dman... potentially Bouchard fills that role in a couple years.

I voted 120-130 points but it is very plausible that he hits 130+.

Or maybe McDavid simply isn't that great on the powerplay.

 

[Captain Bowie]

I could see him coming close to 130.

 

[zar]

McDavid can do 130 points. And his powerplay numbers are low and could be higher. McDavid is one the reasons why Oilers have bad powerplay. He hangs on puck too long to make plays. McDavid is in my opinion the best player in NHL but he does not crack to my top 30 powerplay players. I think he needs to get better on powerplays.

Or maybe McDavid simply isn't that great on the powerplay.

Could be true... he has had the following track record...
2015/16 - .31ppP/gp = 25 ppP/82gp
2016/17 = 27 ppP
2017/18 = 20 ppP

... definitely lower than you would expect from an 2 time Art Ross winner. Coaching and surround talent being a factor.

Coach has been changed, surrounding talent... maybe if they play Puljujarvi or Yamamoto on the on with McDavid. Regardless, I still see 30+ ppPs from him this year. I’m an optimist!

 

[daver]

LMAOO ya it’s good ol’ daver. Trying to use 1 season of good PP to downplay CM’s future point totals.

Where I am downplaying anything?

McDavid has two similar Art Ross wins, one where his team had a pretty good PP; one where the PP sucked. One where his team was in the playoff hunt the whole year; one where they were out of it for the last quarter of a season.

I predict McDavid could have a season where, relative to the field, there is a gap like Crosby and Malkin had over the field at their peaks. How that translates into a point total depends on league dynamics.

What I won't predict is McDavid's ES staying the exact same if the he puts up more PP points than this year.

 

[Breomike]

As he ages and refines his two-way game, I don't think he'll ever score more than the 120 points Crosby put up in '07, so around that number or just a hair below.