Speculation: Predict End of Season Point Totals

[OD99]

Our record is decent at home already under DJ

Home record: 47-45-14 for an 84 pts pace

Road record: 34-59-10 for a 62 pts pace.

Yes, I knew we were better at home but I expect far better than .500 if DJ deploys our players correctly.

The more we discuss various items about this season the more I am convinced we will make the play-offs. So much room for big chunks of points compared to last season (Covid, schedule, injuries, personnel) and then add in the improvements in other Eastern teams and the top teams probably don't end up at the same point total.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Stutzle: 85
Debrincat: 82
Batherson: 75
Norris: 71
Tkachuk: 70
Giroux: 65
Pinto: 44
Joseph: 37
Formenton: 35
Kelly: 20
Watson: 17
Kastelic: 15
Gambrell: 10

Chabot: 62
Sanderson: 35
Zub: 31
Brannstrom: 30
Holden: 18
Hamonic: 12
Zaitsev: 10

Maybe some of those are slightly optimistic but screw it, I'm hyped for this season.

 

[aragorn]

It's obvious that the Sens will score a lot more goals this yr, but they still need to reduce their goals against & hopefully with better goaltending & high scoring forward lines, that will help to reduce the goals against. They really just need to improve their defence a little or their defence naturally gets better because the team as a whole is better.

 

[JD1]

It's obvious that the Sens will score a lot more goals this yr, but they still need to reduce their goals against & hopefully with better goaltending & high scoring forward lines, that will help to reduce the goals against. They really just need to improve their defence a little or their defence naturally gets better because the team as a whole is better.

We gave up 266 last year which was better than 10 teams. A very modest improvement to 250 puts us in a median position in the league.

We're going to need to score to be competitive at a playoff position level.

We always talk about how bad our D was. We scored 227 which was better than 6 teams and much further away from league median. Our O needs to make a much larger jump than our D to make us competitive

 

[PatrickEaves]

We gave up 266 last year which was better than 10 teams. A very modest improvement to 250 puts us in a median position in the league.

We're going to need to score to be competitive at a playoff position level.

We always talk about how bad our D was. We scored 227 which was better than 6 teams and much further away from league median. Our O needs to make a much larger jump than our D to make us competitive

They are linked. If we spend less time hemmed in our own zone, we will score more goals.

 

[JD1]

They are linked. If we spend less time hemmed in our own zone, we will score more goals.

This is true

It's also true that if we spend more time in the O zone, we'll give up less. Our top 9 should be significantly better which should result in a lot less pressure in our end

 

[Sweatred]

Jimmy > Batherson … plus I think Norris line will get a heavier matchup and DJ will give them more defensive starts than Jimmy’s.

 

[Korpse]

Stutzle 30G 85 P
Debrincat 38G 76P
Batherson 27G 68P
Tkachuk 34G 66P
Norris 31G 60P
Giroux 16G 55P
Pinto 17G 40P
Formenton 21G 36 P
Joseph 16 G 31P
Kelly 10G 22P
Watson 5G 18P
Gambrell 3G 15P

Chabot 8G 57P
Sanderson 5G 32P
Brannstrom 4G 29P
Zub 4G 26P
Holden 4G 18P
Hamonic 3G 15P

 

[Micklebot]

I think we might see an explosion in production from Chabot.

Despite being on one of the lower scoring teams at 5v5 over the last 3 seasons, Chabot is 8th in pts per game 5v5 (40+ games min) and 21st for 5v5 goals/gp despite not being know as a goal scoring Dman. Heck, his first two years he had the 4th most 5v5 goals, and 3rd per game.

Now, a lot of his 5v5 icetime will see a drastic improvement in linemates, I could see 5v5 production really increasing. On the PP, which hasn't been his strength, he's going to have a tone more help too, we might see coverage break down more as the opposition has to worry about so many potential triggers.

 

[bert]

Scoring projections for the Forwards

Stutzle 80-90 points in the 30 goal range
Batherson 70-85 point range (he maybe relegated to the 2nd pp due to his versatility)
Debrincat 65-80 point range 40 goals
Tkachuk 65-80 point range 35-35 type season
Norris 60-75 point range 40 goal potential
Giroux 55-70 point range
Pinto 35-45 point range
Joseph 30-40 point range
Formenton 30-40 point range with 20 goals elite pker 5 + shorties
Kelly 15 goal potential 30 points
Watson 10-15 point range
Gambrell 10-15 point range
Kastelic 10-15 point range with a few fights

Scoring projections for the D

Chabot 50-60
Brannstrom 20-35
Sanderson 20-35
Zub 20-30
Thomson 15-30
Hamonic 10-25
Holden 10-25
Zaitsev 5-10

 

[JD1]

I think the scoring expectations are too high or the playoff expectations are too low.

 

[aragorn]

I think we might see an explosion in production from Chabot.

Despite being on one of the lower scoring teams at 5v5 over the last 3 seasons, Chabot is 8th in pts per game 5v5 (40+ games min) and 21st for 5v5 goals/gp despite not being know as a goal scoring Dman. Heck, his first two years he had the 4th most 5v5 goals, and 3rd per game.

Now, a lot of his 5v5 icetime will see a drastic improvement in linemates, I could see 5v5 production really increasing. On the PP, which hasn't been his strength, he's going to have a tone more help too, we might see coverage break down more as the opposition has to worry about so many potential triggers.

I think so too & the best way to assure this is to place Chabot with their best defender Zub who can concentrate on the dfensive side & give Chabot the green light to go whenever he can. They have all this offence at forward, they will need someone to get them the puck & that's where Chabot & to a lesser extent Sanderson can get that puck to their forwards & pass that puck around. Brannstrom is also good at that, but he is behind Chabot & Sanderson & Zub & Hamonic are the defensive concience guys to play with those two given the defence roster right now. The 3rd pairing will likely be a defensive shutdown pairing & PK tandem which should also exclude Brann.

 

[Micklebot]

I think the scoring expectations are too high or the playoff expectations are too low.

Well, I can only speak for myself, but I did my projections based on all the players playing 82 games which obviously won't happen. Health tends to be strongly correlated with performance, for seemingly obvious reasons, and while I fully expect us to be healthier than last year, I do think we will probably see se key injuries that will partially determine our fate.

I also expect the east to be really tight, it should be an entertaining season

 

[Cosmix]

It's obvious that the Sens will score a lot more goals this yr, but they still need to reduce their goals against & hopefully with better goaltending & high scoring forward lines, that will help to reduce the goals against. They really just need to improve their defence a little or their defence naturally gets better because the team as a whole is better.

I agree. If the defence was better then I think a playoff spot would be likely. Right now I think the Senators will be a bubble team.

I projected team scoring based on last year's performance and adjusted it to show an increase in goals for Stutzle, and a corresponding decrease in goals for Norris and Debrincat. I made some assumptions regarding games played by each player (not 82 for each player). This would increase the Senators GF to about 3.4 G/GP over the season compared to 2.24 in 2021-22. GA/GP for 2021-22 was 2.64. I think 3.4 is probably too high as it would likely lead to playoff hockey if the GA/GP remains at 2.64.

I forgot to adjust Shane Pinto's scoring as he did not get any goals last year and that will not hold true for 2022-23.

Number	Name	Proj Goals	Proj Assists	Proj Points
7​	Brady Tkachuk	30​	37​	67​
19​	Drake Batherson	29​	46​	76​
12​	Alex Debrincat	36​	36​	71​
28​	Claude Giroux	22​	46​	68​
18​	Tim Stutzle	30​	36​	66​
9​	Josh Norris	38​	24​	62​
21​	Mathieu Joseph	14​	21​	34​
10​	Alex Formenton	18​	14​	32​
45​	Parker Kelly	13​	10​	23​
16​	Austin Watson	12​	7​	19​
12​	Shane Pinto	0​	16​	16​
47​	Mark Kastelic	6​	6​	13​
	Other Forwards	0​	7​	7​
27​	Dylan Gambrell	2​	3​	4​
72​	Thomas Chabot	9​	40​	50​
2​	Artem Zub	6​	15​	21​
26​	Erik Brannstrom	0​	13​	13​
22​	Nikita Zaitsev	2​	10​	13​
5​	Nick Holden	3​	9​	13​
23​	Travis Hamonic	4​	8​	12​
85​	Jake Sanderson	5​	5​	10​
60​	Lassi Thomson	0​	6​	6​
24​	Jacob Bernard-Docker	0​	3​	3​

 

[DaveMatthew]

Forwards:

Debrincat: 40 goals, 75 points
Stutzle: 30 goals, 75 points
Batherson: 30 goals, 70 points
Tkachuk: 30 goals, 65 points
Norris: 35 goals, 65 points
Giroux: 20 goals, 55 points
Pinto: 20 goals, 40 points
Joseph: 15 goals, 35 points
Formenton: 20 goals, 35 points
Kelly: 10 goals, 25 points
Watson: 10 goals, 20 points
Gambrell: 5 goals, 15 points
Kastelic: 5 goals, 15 points

Defense:

Chabot: 10 goals, 50 points
Sanderson: 10 goals, 40 points
Brannstrom: 5 goals, 30 points
Zub: 5 goals, 20 points

 

[Loach]

I think so too & the best way to assure this is to place Chabot with their best defender Zub who can concentrate on the dfensive side & give Chabot the green light to go whenever he can. They have all this offence at forward, they will need someone to get them the puck & that's where Chabot & to a lesser extent Sanderson can get that puck to their forwards & pass that puck around. Brannstrom is also good at that, but he is behind Chabot & Sanderson & Zub & Hamonic are the defensive concience guys to play with those two given the defence roster right now. The 3rd pairing will likely be a defensive shutdown pairing & PK tandem which should also exclude Brann.

A shut down pairing doesn't have to be a set pairing all the time does it? Can't DJ just send out Hamonic/Holden/Zub/Chabot at anytime..

 

[saskriders]

Stü: 85 points
DeBrincat: 47 goals
Norris: 43 goals
Tkachuk: 78 points
Batherson: 80 points
Giroux: 69 points

Too lazy to do more.

 

[pown]

Batherson - 32 G 84 P
Tkachuk - 33 G 72 P
Stutzle - 29 G 78 P
Chabot - 14 G 43 P
DeBrincat- 42 G 87 P
Norris - 40 G 75 P
Giroux - 24 G 75 P
Formenton - 16 G 42 P
Joseph - 22 G 44 P
Pinto - 18 G 48 P
Sanderson - 9 G 33 P
Zub - 4 G 17 P

 

[JD1]

Well, I can only speak for myself, but I did my projections based on all the players playing 82 games which obviously won't happen. Health tends to be strongly correlated with performance, for seemingly obvious reasons, and while I fully expect us to be healthier than last year, I do think we will probably see se key injuries that will partially determine our fate.

I also expect the east to be really tight, it should be an entertaining season

So we were 227gf and 266ga last year. As you pointed out previously, once we got over the start, we paced at 85 points over 60+ games. So what's indicative of the team? The start or the 60+ games.

I think it is the 60+ games. Improving that pace by 10 puts us in meaningful games the last two weeks of the season

Guys are posting gf totals that add to 275 or better. Regardless of who scores them, I think we're going to score a lot more. 40 more goals puts us at 267. Even improving the ga by 10, if we can score 40 more locks us into a playoff spot. +11 on the goal differential is a near guaranteed playoff spot.

Can we score more? Norris and Batherson combined should score more than last year based on more games played.

Giroux and DeBrincat should score more than Formenton and whoever else flanked Stuetzle.

Formenton Pinto Joseph should score more than whatever makeup we had on the 3rd line last year which at the worst of the COVID outbreak consisted of career Ahlers.

The path to score more is clearly there. I think 50 more is attainable and if we hit that, we go to the playoffs

 

[Micklebot]

...
Guys are posting gf totals that add to 275 or better. Regardless of who scores them, I think we're going to score a lot more. 40 more goals puts us at 267. Even improving the ga by 10, if we can score 40 more locks us into a playoff spot. +11 on the goal differential is a near guaranteed playoff spot.

...

So, last year:

Fla +94
Tor +62
TBL +54
BOS +35

CAR +76
NYR +47
PENS +43
WAS +30

I'm not sure the top teams will be as dominant this year, but +11 just didn't cut it in the east last year. Heck, even in the west, the VGK missed at +18 as did VAN at +13.

 

[JD1]

So, last year:

Fla +94
Tor +62
TBL +54
BOS +35

CAR +76
NYR +47
PENS +43
WAS +30

I'm not sure the top teams will be as dominant this year, but +11 just didn't cut it in the east last year. Heck, even in the west, the VGK missed at +18 as did VAN at +13.

So is last year a new normal or was it an outlier? Excluding last year, I bet you could go back to the 2000s lockout and you won't find 4 teams that failed to make the playoffs at +11.

 

[Micklebot]

So is last year a new normal or was it an outlier? Excluding last year, I bet you could go back to the 2000s lockout and you won't find 4 teams that failed to make the playoffs at +11.

I think this is partially a function of the top teams just being much better than the bottom teams last year, which will take some time to reverse, as well as goal scoring being way up exaggerating those gaps.

When you look long term, I agree, +11 should be a near guarantee, but teams don't reset randomly every year, good teams last year are generally good teams the next year, so last years results are typcially more informative than those from a decade ago. Will this year see more parity, something similar to last year, or something in the middle. I suspect something in the middle, but you might be right, we'll have to wait and see. there are definitely some signs of increase parity,

 

[UglyPuckling]

That's the hope,

I think the teams biggest question mark is goaltending not the D, I'm pretty high on Sanderson and think Hamonic gets a bad rap around here. Brannstrom to me looks like he can handle a top 4 puck mover role with a reliable partner. Our first two callups imo are two 1st Rd picks on the verge of being NHL players. My only concern on D is that well play Zaitsev even if/when he struggles.

We have two goalies than can play like a starter, but aren't sure things, I think we'll be fine but it's an area to keep an eye on.

Most people have Sogaard in their 2023-24 lineup as well (in order to meet cap), so the goaltender concern carries on into the 2023-24 season I would think as well. I'm probably more concerned about 2023-24 goaltending situation than this year. Sogaard doesn't have a lot of NHL experience at this point.

 

[GCK]

I think the scoring expectations are too high or the playoff expectations are too low.

I’m hoping to be around 265 goals for and 255 goals against which puts us in the playoff conversation. I expect a relatively slow start (.500) but we really ramp it up by the end of November.

 

[OD99]

So, last year:

Fla +94

That is actually insane - I hadn't paid attention to that stat but +94 is more than impressive!

I’m hoping to be around 265 goals for and 255 goals against which puts us in the playoff conversation. I expect a relatively slow start (.500) but we really ramp it up by the end of November.

I am firmly of the belief that this team is going to be so jacked up and focused on winning they are going to come out of the gate on fire and put the league on notice right away.

With the way overall scoring has gone and then adding in beginning of season defensive breakdowns we should score enough to win early. I also think our D is naturally far better than it was to start last season so net/net I see a big improvement.

They will then have a natural lull and have to fight their way out of it. Losing games they should win then finally righting the ship and being right in the mix come playoff time.